5 Socio-economic impacts
75. The Hafren Power barrage project has the potential
to offer significant employment benefits on both a local and national
scale, potentially creating thousands of jobs and providing a
much-needed economic boost to the surrounding areas. However there
are also adverse impacts to be considered, in particular to ports
and fishing industries. This section looks at the socio-economic
implications in more detail.
Jobs, industry and growth
76. One of the primary benefits of the proposed barrage
scheme is the potential for job creation on a grand scale. Hafren
Power estimated that its barrage will directly generate 20,700
jobs, supplemented by a further 30,000 indirect and induced jobs.
The Consortium pledges that 80% of the £25 billion barrage
investment will remain in the UK. This is to be achieved by building
components locally and establishing two manufacturing plants either
side of the barrage to supply the 1,026 turbines. Upon completion
of barrage construction, Hafren Power estimated that the barrage
will sustain approximately 1,000 permanent jobs.[166]
The company anticipated increased trade for ports and aggregates
industries bringing in construction materials, with added potential
for water sports and tourism due to the more clement and clearer
waters created by the barrage. In oral evidence, Rt Hon Peter
Hain MP, claimed the project would "leave a legacy of jobs
for local ports, for commercial and marine and leisure activity".[167]
Mr Hain went on to emphasise the transformational nature of the
project, in particular for the steelmaking and ports industries
in Port Talbot and the surrounding area.[168]
Evidence from Tata Steel highlighted the project's need for steel
products and services, which could be provided by "indigenous
suppliers."[169]
77. Martin Mansfield (General Secretary, Wales TUC)
also underlined the need for economic growth in the region: "[...]
we believe that major infrastructure investment like this is absolutely
required in order to provide the economic stimulus that we need
to take us out of the economic crisis we are in, particularly
in South Wales."[170]
Andy Richards (Wales Secretary, Unite the Union) drew attention
to the level of unemployment in Wales, particularly amongst young
people, and the "significant opportunity it [the project]
creates for real economic and social regeneration in Wales."[171]
NERC outlined the wider benefits for UK industry:
A successful project to extract energy from the
Severn estuary, through application of UK research science and
engineering capabilities, could potentially kick start global
interest in exploiting tidal range resource. This would allow
the UK to export innovative design products, advice and services
derived from the Severn experience via our international research,
consultancy and engineering sectors. This would include technology
for energy extraction, as well as electrical infrastructure, flood
protection, mitigation of natural heritage assets etc.[172]
78. Engineering the Future agreed that the barrage
would generate international interest, with the unique Very-Low-Head
turbine design boosting UK engineering and low-carbon industries.[173]
Speaking about the export potential of the barrage, Professor
Tim Broyd claimed that "We potentially have an opportunity
to get the world market in this and to retain it for a while."[174]
Others were more hesitant about the export potential, given the
limited number of sites with the necessary tidal range to operate
a barrage facility.[175]
Regarding turbine production, Hafren Power stated that manufacturers
have shown "agreement in principle" to build turbine
plants in Port Talbot and Bristol, although "negotiations
have not reached the point of detailed commitment."[176]
79. The Hafren Power barrage scheme could offer
significant benefits for the UK in terms of jobs and growth, with
the potential to reinvigorate the local economy. A tidal barrage
on this scale would highlight the UK's engineering capabilities
in the construction of large-scale renewable projects.
Adverse impacts to local industries
IMPACTS TO THE PORTS INDUSTRY: WATER
LEVELS
80. Countering the picture of economic regeneration
are the adverse economic impacts which may result. The ports industry
in particular has expressed strong opposition to the Hafren Power
proposal on the grounds that its business would be severely compromised
and possibly forced to close if a barrage were to go ahead.[177]
The key impact identified by Simon Bird (The Bristol Port Company)
would be the loss of approximately two metres of depth of water
upstream of the barrage. Shallower waters would restrict the port's
capacity for deep-sea vessels, which along with delays to shipping
caused by the introduction of locks on the barrage could cause
"erosion in terms of our [the ports'] overall competitiveness".[178]
Mr Bird explained how a 2m or greater loss of water depth would
affect trade:
From a Bristol Port perspective, we are one of
the UK's national deep sea ports. We handle some of the largest
vessels coming into the UK; 60% of our trade is in vessels of
greater than 70,000 tonnes deadweight, which come with arrival
draught of greater than 13 metres. Losing that amount of water
off the tide will mean that those vessels will typically only
get in on 20% of the tides throughout the year; on 80% of the
tides large vessels will be unable to come into the port with
that loss of high water. The loss of high water is probably a
killer for us.[179]
81. Witnesses also raised concerns that the proposed
barrage would jeopardise £1.2 billion worth of investment
in infrastructure for which planning permission has been granted:
a £600m Deep Sea Container Terminal and two biomass power
stations.[180] According
to The Bristol Port Company, these investments depend upon the
Port's ability to accommodate deep-draught ships, handle cargo
efficiently and benefit from excellent inland infrastructure links
- qualities which Hafren Power's proposed barrage may adversely
affect. [181]
Rail freight which relies on rail freight flows to and from Bristol
Port also requires that the port remain fully operational.
[182]
PUMPING
82. Hafren Power have suggested that tides could
be raised through pumping, which the company claim would improve
access to existing docks.[183]
However, analysis commissioned by Bristol Port suggests that to
raise tide levels by 1m on a spring tide, 600,000,000m3 would
need to be pumped, equivalent to each turbine pumping 100,000
tonnes of water per hour over a six hour period.[184]
To date Hafren Power have not produced evidence regarding technical
capability of the turbines or the commercial viability of operating
the barrage in pumping mode.
OPERATION OF LOCKS
83. Hafren Power has stated that locks will be introduced
on the barrage "to allow all current shipping movements."[185]
While Hafren Power has pledged to cover the expenses involved
in operating and maintaining the locks proposed, with no charge
for transit, the introduction of new locks poses other problems.[186]
Matthew Kennerley (ABP Port Director South Wales, Associated British
Ports) explained how a small change in freight costs, caused by
delays or difficulties transiting locks, could cause trade to
move elsewhere. An additional set of locks could cause "
a convergence of a large number of large vessels" in the
ports, which could increase delays and freight rate:
Not only that, you have vessels trying to get
out of the impound at the same time, so huge concerns there from
a ship owner's perspective. You have the risk of an extra lock,
which they do not like doing. You have extra tug interaction;
again, something that they try to avoid. You have the time of
transit, and I question whether 40 minutes is really realistic,
certainly in the case of some of the larger vessels. You have
the issue of risk of having to put a vessel through the lock and
the potential delays that are associated with a possible queuing
arrangement. All of that in future, when somebody is pricing a
cargo to come into South Wales, will be priced into the freight
rate.[187]
84. Hafren Power have yet to provide details of the
design and dimensions of the proposed locks, although Anthony
Pryor (Hafren Power) informed us that they would be designed by
engineering firm Arup.[188]
The Bristol Port Company highlighted further questions which remain
unanswered:
Crucially, HP have not explained how they will
guarantee in perpetuity the operation and maintenance of the locks
and their approaches; the provision of pilotage and vessel traffic
services; and the management of commercial priorities for access
to the locks by multiple vessels all requiring passage through
the locks on the same tide.[189]
SILTATION AND DREDGING
85. Siltation caused by a barrage may result in the
need for extensive maintenance dredging. As the barrage will slow
water flow in the impounded area, suspended sediment is likely
to drop out of the water and accumulate on the sea bed leading
to shallower waters and potential difficulties for ship navigation.
Moreover this may not occur proportionally: reduced water velocity
leads to a faster reduced rate of suspended sediment and potential
siltation. Simon Bird (The Bristol Port Company) stated that the
port operates "24/7 dredging"[190]
to keep lock entrances clear. Hafren Power acknowledged the problem
of siltation, but believe that the location of turbines "spread
across the breadth of the estuary" would allow for a slower
velocity through the turbines and "more uniform" settling
out of siltation due to "more uniform velocity distribution
across the estuary".[191]
Witnesses noted that there is a lack of up-to-date information
relating to estuary dynamics[192]
and Hafren Power "has not yet undertaken its own detailed
computational morphological modelling of the estuary."[193]
Due to the lack of published information on sedimentation patterns
under the new barrage scheme there is no way to predict how siltation
might affect the ports: this is a significant issue which Hafren
Power has yet to address.
86. Hafren Power has failed to reassure the ports
industry that its business would continue to be viable with a
barrage in place. Serious questions remain in regard to the barrage's
impact on water levels, shipping times, freight costs and siltation.
These will need to be fully addressed before impacts to the ports
can be accurately evaluated.
MARINE AGGREGATES INDUSTRY
87. The marine aggregates industry could benefit
in the short term by the demand for high volumes of sand needed
to provide both the construction aggregate and fill associated
with a barrage project. But concerns were expressed from the aggregates
industry that the proposed barrage would constrain access to licensed
reserves and landing sites. In addition, the current reserve permitted
in the existing licensed area would not be sufficient, and therefore
either new licences would be needed in the Bristol Channel region
or permitted offtakes would need to be increased substantially.
The British Marine Aggregate Producers Associate pointed out that
this is a lengthy process of "3 years as an absolute minimum"[194].
FISHING AND TOURISM INDUSTRY
88. Operators of fisheries and tourist attractions
in the area may suffer adverse impacts as a result of the barrage
due to impacts on fish stocks and catch. The Angling Trust feared
the further degradation of fish stocks and the resultant impact
on the angling economy, which it described as a "vitally
important part of the social and economic fabric of communities
along rivers throughout the Severn basin and along the coastline"[195].
The DECC Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study estimated the value
of commercial and recreational fisheries at more than £28m;
charter boat annual turnover was valued at approximately £1m.[196]
Tourism to the region may also be affected: Dr Pryor (National
Trust) expressed concern regarding the impact on "a really
valuable expanse of open space, fresh air and places to experience
nature that is accessible to an awful lot of people".[197]
The potential impact on the Severn bore could also affect tourism
in the area.[198]
Overall employment impact
89. As mentioned previously, Hafren Power estimated
that a total of 50,000 direct and indirect jobs would be created
by the construction of the barrage, with "a private-sector
stimulus, including multiplier effect, of around £70bn"
for the UK economy.[199]
These figures for economic benefit have not been independently
verified. Job losses in local industries should be factored in
to provide a robust assessment of the regional net impact. DECC
figures are broad-ranging, suggesting that if the Bristol Port
Deep Sea Container Terminal were to go ahead, Gross Value Added
(GVA) could range from +£5.9 billion to -£1.5 billion,
with a central estimate for job creation post construction of
- 80 (meaning overall loss of 80 jobs).[200]
While the Minister conceded that such vast ranges reduced the
usefulness of the figures, they do illustrate the complexity of
calculating the socio-economic impact accurately.[201]
The Minister also pointed out that Hafren Power's assessment appeared
optimistic:
We have not seen the details behind the Hafren
Power figure. They have not been made available to us. So we can't
comment in detail, but they do seem very high. They certainly
don't compare to our feasibility study estimate or to the number
of jobs we would expect from a similar generation capacity for,
say, nuclear energy.[202]
90. DECC's assessment suggested that a barrage would
result in job losses whereas Hafren Power thought that the overall
employment impact of its project would be positive. We therefore
recommend that any claims about job creation and economic benefit
should be independently verified, particularly with reference
to the costs being borne by energy users, with adverse impacts
to existing industries factored in to calculations in order to
provide a robust assessment of net regional economic impact.
The employment benefit of a barrage scheme is likely to centre
around temporary jobs during construction. The number of high-quality,
permanent jobs created by the proposals will be ultimately more
significant.
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A bore is a naturally occurring tidal wave which forms as the
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