A Severn Barrage? - Energy and Climate Change Contents


5  Socio-economic impacts

75. The Hafren Power barrage project has the potential to offer significant employment benefits on both a local and national scale, potentially creating thousands of jobs and providing a much-needed economic boost to the surrounding areas. However there are also adverse impacts to be considered, in particular to ports and fishing industries. This section looks at the socio-economic implications in more detail.

Jobs, industry and growth

76. One of the primary benefits of the proposed barrage scheme is the potential for job creation on a grand scale. Hafren Power estimated that its barrage will directly generate 20,700 jobs, supplemented by a further 30,000 indirect and induced jobs. The Consortium pledges that 80% of the £25 billion barrage investment will remain in the UK. This is to be achieved by building components locally and establishing two manufacturing plants either side of the barrage to supply the 1,026 turbines. Upon completion of barrage construction, Hafren Power estimated that the barrage will sustain approximately 1,000 permanent jobs.[166] The company anticipated increased trade for ports and aggregates industries bringing in construction materials, with added potential for water sports and tourism due to the more clement and clearer waters created by the barrage. In oral evidence, Rt Hon Peter Hain MP, claimed the project would "leave a legacy of jobs for local ports, for commercial and marine and leisure activity".[167] Mr Hain went on to emphasise the transformational nature of the project, in particular for the steelmaking and ports industries in Port Talbot and the surrounding area.[168] Evidence from Tata Steel highlighted the project's need for steel products and services, which could be provided by "indigenous suppliers."[169]

77. Martin Mansfield (General Secretary, Wales TUC) also underlined the need for economic growth in the region: "[...] we believe that major infrastructure investment like this is absolutely required in order to provide the economic stimulus that we need to take us out of the economic crisis we are in, particularly in South Wales."[170] Andy Richards (Wales Secretary, Unite the Union) drew attention to the level of unemployment in Wales, particularly amongst young people, and the "significant opportunity it [the project] creates for real economic and social regeneration in Wales."[171] NERC outlined the wider benefits for UK industry:

    A successful project to extract energy from the Severn estuary, through application of UK research science and engineering capabilities, could potentially kick start global interest in exploiting tidal range resource. This would allow the UK to export innovative design products, advice and services derived from the Severn experience via our international research, consultancy and engineering sectors. This would include technology for energy extraction, as well as electrical infrastructure, flood protection, mitigation of natural heritage assets etc.[172]

78. Engineering the Future agreed that the barrage would generate international interest, with the unique Very-Low-Head turbine design boosting UK engineering and low-carbon industries.[173] Speaking about the export potential of the barrage, Professor Tim Broyd claimed that "We potentially have an opportunity to get the world market in this and to retain it for a while."[174] Others were more hesitant about the export potential, given the limited number of sites with the necessary tidal range to operate a barrage facility.[175] Regarding turbine production, Hafren Power stated that manufacturers have shown "agreement in principle" to build turbine plants in Port Talbot and Bristol, although "negotiations have not reached the point of detailed commitment."[176]

79. The Hafren Power barrage scheme could offer significant benefits for the UK in terms of jobs and growth, with the potential to reinvigorate the local economy. A tidal barrage on this scale would highlight the UK's engineering capabilities in the construction of large-scale renewable projects.

Adverse impacts to local industries

IMPACTS TO THE PORTS INDUSTRY: WATER LEVELS

80. Countering the picture of economic regeneration are the adverse economic impacts which may result. The ports industry in particular has expressed strong opposition to the Hafren Power proposal on the grounds that its business would be severely compromised and possibly forced to close if a barrage were to go ahead.[177] The key impact identified by Simon Bird (The Bristol Port Company) would be the loss of approximately two metres of depth of water upstream of the barrage. Shallower waters would restrict the port's capacity for deep-sea vessels, which along with delays to shipping caused by the introduction of locks on the barrage could cause "erosion in terms of our [the ports'] overall competitiveness".[178] Mr Bird explained how a 2m or greater loss of water depth would affect trade:

    From a Bristol Port perspective, we are one of the UK's national deep sea ports. We handle some of the largest vessels coming into the UK; 60% of our trade is in vessels of greater than 70,000 tonnes deadweight, which come with arrival draught of greater than 13 metres. Losing that amount of water off the tide will mean that those vessels will typically only get in on 20% of the tides throughout the year; on 80% of the tides large vessels will be unable to come into the port with that loss of high water. The loss of high water is probably a killer for us.[179]

81. Witnesses also raised concerns that the proposed barrage would jeopardise £1.2 billion worth of investment in infrastructure for which planning permission has been granted: a £600m Deep Sea Container Terminal and two biomass power stations.[180] According to The Bristol Port Company, these investments depend upon the Port's ability to accommodate deep-draught ships, handle cargo efficiently and benefit from excellent inland infrastructure links - qualities which Hafren Power's proposed barrage may adversely affect. [181] Rail freight which relies on rail freight flows to and from Bristol Port also requires that the port remain fully operational. [182]

PUMPING

82. Hafren Power have suggested that tides could be raised through pumping, which the company claim would improve access to existing docks.[183] However, analysis commissioned by Bristol Port suggests that to raise tide levels by 1m on a spring tide, 600,000,000m3 would need to be pumped, equivalent to each turbine pumping 100,000 tonnes of water per hour over a six hour period.[184] To date Hafren Power have not produced evidence regarding technical capability of the turbines or the commercial viability of operating the barrage in pumping mode.

OPERATION OF LOCKS

83. Hafren Power has stated that locks will be introduced on the barrage "to allow all current shipping movements."[185] While Hafren Power has pledged to cover the expenses involved in operating and maintaining the locks proposed, with no charge for transit, the introduction of new locks poses other problems.[186] Matthew Kennerley (ABP Port Director South Wales, Associated British Ports) explained how a small change in freight costs, caused by delays or difficulties transiting locks, could cause trade to move elsewhere. An additional set of locks could cause " a convergence of a large number of large vessels" in the ports, which could increase delays and freight rate:

    Not only that, you have vessels trying to get out of the impound at the same time, so huge concerns there from a ship owner's perspective. You have the risk of an extra lock, which they do not like doing. You have extra tug interaction; again, something that they try to avoid. You have the time of transit, and I question whether 40 minutes is really realistic, certainly in the case of some of the larger vessels. You have the issue of risk of having to put a vessel through the lock and the potential delays that are associated with a possible queuing arrangement. All of that in future, when somebody is pricing a cargo to come into South Wales, will be priced into the freight rate.[187]

84. Hafren Power have yet to provide details of the design and dimensions of the proposed locks, although Anthony Pryor (Hafren Power) informed us that they would be designed by engineering firm Arup.[188] The Bristol Port Company highlighted further questions which remain unanswered:

    Crucially, HP have not explained how they will guarantee in perpetuity the operation and maintenance of the locks and their approaches; the provision of pilotage and vessel traffic services; and the management of commercial priorities for access to the locks by multiple vessels all requiring passage through the locks on the same tide.[189]

SILTATION AND DREDGING

85. Siltation caused by a barrage may result in the need for extensive maintenance dredging. As the barrage will slow water flow in the impounded area, suspended sediment is likely to drop out of the water and accumulate on the sea bed leading to shallower waters and potential difficulties for ship navigation. Moreover this may not occur proportionally: reduced water velocity leads to a faster reduced rate of suspended sediment and potential siltation. Simon Bird (The Bristol Port Company) stated that the port operates "24/7 dredging"[190] to keep lock entrances clear. Hafren Power acknowledged the problem of siltation, but believe that the location of turbines "spread across the breadth of the estuary" would allow for a slower velocity through the turbines and "more uniform" settling out of siltation due to "more uniform velocity distribution across the estuary".[191] Witnesses noted that there is a lack of up-to-date information relating to estuary dynamics[192] and Hafren Power "has not yet undertaken its own detailed computational morphological modelling of the estuary."[193] Due to the lack of published information on sedimentation patterns under the new barrage scheme there is no way to predict how siltation might affect the ports: this is a significant issue which Hafren Power has yet to address.

86. Hafren Power has failed to reassure the ports industry that its business would continue to be viable with a barrage in place. Serious questions remain in regard to the barrage's impact on water levels, shipping times, freight costs and siltation. These will need to be fully addressed before impacts to the ports can be accurately evaluated.

MARINE AGGREGATES INDUSTRY

87. The marine aggregates industry could benefit in the short term by the demand for high volumes of sand needed to provide both the construction aggregate and fill associated with a barrage project. But concerns were expressed from the aggregates industry that the proposed barrage would constrain access to licensed reserves and landing sites. In addition, the current reserve permitted in the existing licensed area would not be sufficient, and therefore either new licences would be needed in the Bristol Channel region or permitted offtakes would need to be increased substantially. The British Marine Aggregate Producers Associate pointed out that this is a lengthy process of "3 years as an absolute minimum"[194].

FISHING AND TOURISM INDUSTRY

88. Operators of fisheries and tourist attractions in the area may suffer adverse impacts as a result of the barrage due to impacts on fish stocks and catch. The Angling Trust feared the further degradation of fish stocks and the resultant impact on the angling economy, which it described as a "vitally important part of the social and economic fabric of communities along rivers throughout the Severn basin and along the coastline"[195]. The DECC Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study estimated the value of commercial and recreational fisheries at more than £28m; charter boat annual turnover was valued at approximately £1m.[196] Tourism to the region may also be affected: Dr Pryor (National Trust) expressed concern regarding the impact on "a really valuable expanse of open space, fresh air and places to experience nature that is accessible to an awful lot of people".[197] The potential impact on the Severn bore could also affect tourism in the area.[198]

Overall employment impact

89. As mentioned previously, Hafren Power estimated that a total of 50,000 direct and indirect jobs would be created by the construction of the barrage, with "a private-sector stimulus, including multiplier effect, of around £70bn" for the UK economy.[199] These figures for economic benefit have not been independently verified. Job losses in local industries should be factored in to provide a robust assessment of the regional net impact. DECC figures are broad-ranging, suggesting that if the Bristol Port Deep Sea Container Terminal were to go ahead, Gross Value Added (GVA) could range from +£5.9 billion to -£1.5 billion, with a central estimate for job creation post construction of - 80 (meaning overall loss of 80 jobs).[200] While the Minister conceded that such vast ranges reduced the usefulness of the figures, they do illustrate the complexity of calculating the socio-economic impact accurately.[201] The Minister also pointed out that Hafren Power's assessment appeared optimistic:

    We have not seen the details behind the Hafren Power figure. They have not been made available to us. So we can't comment in detail, but they do seem very high. They certainly don't compare to our feasibility study estimate or to the number of jobs we would expect from a similar generation capacity for, say, nuclear energy.[202]

90. DECC's assessment suggested that a barrage would result in job losses whereas Hafren Power thought that the overall employment impact of its project would be positive. We therefore recommend that any claims about job creation and economic benefit should be independently verified, particularly with reference to the costs being borne by energy users, with adverse impacts to existing industries factored in to calculations in order to provide a robust assessment of net regional economic impact. The employment benefit of a barrage scheme is likely to centre around temporary jobs during construction. The number of high-quality, permanent jobs created by the proposals will be ultimately more significant.



166   Ev 153 Back

167   Qq 14-16 Back

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169   Ev w35 Back

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171   Q 23 Back

172   Ev w103 Back

173   Ev 107 Back

174   Q 124 Back

175   Ev w41, Ev w61, Ev w66, Ev 91, Ev 143 Back

176   Ev 153a Back

177   Ev 122 Back

178   Q 87 [Matthew Kennerley, Associated British Ports] Back

179   Q 87  Back

180   Ev 122b Back

181   Ev 122 Back

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183   Q 229 Back

184   Ev 122d Back

185   Ev 153 Back

186   Q 242  Back

187   Q 87  Back

188   Q242 Back

189   Ev 122a Back

190   Q 87 Back

191   Ev 153a Back

192   Ev w32, Ev w61, Ev w64, Ev w70, Ev w103, Ev 143, Ev 189 Back

193   Ev 153a Back

194   Ev w17 Back

195   Ev 183 Back

196   DECC, Error! Bookmark not defined., October 2010; Ev 69 Back

197   Q 61 Back

198   A bore is a naturally occurring tidal wave which forms as the rising tide forces a large volume of water through a narrowing river channel with a rising river bed.  Back

199   Ev 153 Back

200   Ev 69 Back

201   Q 369 Back

202   Q 370 Back


 
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© Parliamentary copyright 2013
Prepared 10 June 2013