Home AffairsLetter from Rt Hon David Lidington MP, Minister for Europe, to the Chair of the Committee, 4 April 2013

Last year the FCO commissioned a report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) to draw together findings from existing research and assess the domestic impacts on the lifting of transitional controls on Romania and Bulgaria at the end of the year.

The report will be used by Government Departments to help them prepare for the lifting of transitional controls. The report will be made public tomorrow, Friday 5 April, and I am pleased to send you an embargoed copy for your information.

The key findings from the report are:

UK is not currently the destination of choice for Romanian and Bulgarian workers, who are drawn to Spain and Italy, and to a lesser extent Germany.

This may remain the case in 2014, despite the recession in Spain and Italy, because these communities are longer-term and settled and therefore popular destinations; although it is very difficult to make predictions.

Romanian and Bulgarian migration to the UK will be influenced by the characteristics of the UK labour market, and concentrated in the hospitality, construction or healthcare sectors. It is most likely to follow the pattern of existing Romanian and Bulgarian (and EU8) migration to the UK: young people, travelling to work, generally over-qualified for the jobs they do, and predominantly temporary migrants.

The study makes some observations on the likely impact on health services, schools, housing and benefits. It expects pockets of demand for school places, but less geographically widespread than for the EU8. And relatively low demand on health services since most Bulgarian and Romanian migrants are young and in good health. But there are many uncertainties and numbers migrating to the UK are impossible to predict.

The Rt Hon David Lidington MP

April 2013