1 Introduction
1. Crime statistics published by the Office for National
Statistics (ONS) are central to our understanding of the nature
and prevalence of crime in England and Wales. The statistics are
based on two main sources:(i) the Crime Survey for England and
Wales (CSEW, formerly the British Crime Survey) and (ii) Police
Recorded Crime (PRC). The CSEW provides strong evidence that the
overall volume of crime has been falling for up to two decades.
PRC since the current series began in 2002/03 also shows that
crime overall has been falling.There is no evidence to contradict
thistrend, though some types of crime have fallen much faster
than others. However, there is an accumulation of substantial
and credible evidence indicating that crime as recorded by the
PRC data doesnot representa full and accurate account of crime
in England and Wales. There is strong evidence that PRC is under-recording,
and therefore exaggeratingthe rate of decrease in crime, primarily
due to lax police compliance with the agreed national standard
of victim-focussed crime recording. As a result of this inquiry
and the evidence we have exposed, the UK Statistics Authority(UKSA)
decided in January 2014 to strip PRC data of its designation as
National Statistics.
2. The Chair of PASC was contacted by a serving police
officer, PC James Patrick, acting as a whistleblower, who had
serious concerns about the validity of crime statistics. We are
indebted to PC Patrick for his courage in speaking out, in fulfilment
of his duty to the highest standards of public service, despite
intense pressures to the contrary. The purpose of our inquiry
was to examine whether crimes were being recorded by the police
appropriately, to look at the factors which can influence policemisrecording
of crime, and to assess whether enough has been done to ensure
the integrity of crime data. Ultimately, we wanted to know whether
policy makers and the public can have confidence in the statistics
which result from the recording of crime by police forces. We
called for written evidence, and held four oral evidence sessions,
hearing from current and former police officers, academics, senior
police officers, Police and Crime Commissioners, HM Inspectorate
of Constabulary, UKSA, the ONS and the Home Office minister, Norman
Baker MP.Prompted by PASC's inquiry, the Home Affairs Committee
also took evidence on this issue, during their current inquiry
into Police and Crime Commissioners.[1]
3. This study on crime statistics is part of a wider
programme of work we are carrying out on statistics and their
use in Government. A full description of the studies is set out
on our website at www.parliament.uk/pasc. We are grateful to our
Specialist Adviser on statistics, Simon Briscoe, for his help
with this inquiry.
1 Home Affairs Select Committee, inquiry into Police
and Crime Commissioners. Back
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