5 Conclusion
84. Scotland is unlike other European
countries that wish to join, or have joined, the European Union.
It has been present within the EU, as part of the UK, for the
last forty years and is home to five million people who are currently
EU citizens. This does not mean Scotland's bid for membership
of the EU as a separate state would be straightforward. Substantial,
difficult and wide-ranging negotiations would still need to take
place - on whatever issues the existing Member States raise. As
Jim Currie, former Director General at the EU Commission, commented,
nothing should be assumed:
There is a sense in which, on one
hand, Scotland's right to membership is clear. The conditions
under which membership is gained would be up for negotiation and
those negotiations would be tough and perhaps even lengthy.[107]
85. The accession negotiations for Croatia,
the most recent country to join the EU, lasted six years. Scotland's
circumstances are different and aspects of its bid for membership
could proceed relatively smoothly. For example, because Scotland
already transposes and works within EU law, it would be unrealistic
to envisage negotiations about each page of the 80,000 pages of
acquis (though some consideration would be required as
explained in para 48). But, unlike Croatia, Scotland would be
demanding opt-outs in a number of key areas that are fundamental
to the aspirations of the European Union, such as universal Justice
and Home Affairs measures, Schengen and the single currency. The
Scottish Government asserts that, as a separate Scotland, "we
can and we should" continue to benefit from the opt-outs
negotiated by the UK, but there is no reason why the Member States
should just accept Scotland's demands particularly when they are
unable to exercise similar arrangements themselves: Jim Currie
said, "it will not be a matter of the doors being opened
and Scotland sailing through".[108]
86. All
Member States will have a say in Scotland's membership and several
of those have separatist movements within their own boundaries.
Member States may object to a Scottish state securing favourable
terms or for its passage to membership of the EU passing smoothly
because of the precedent this would set for other separatist aspirations.
We agree with the conclusion of the House of Commons Foreign
Affairs Committee that the Scottish Government "underestimates
the unease which exists within EU Member States and EU institutions
about Scottish independence". Not only does this mean that
the period required for negotiations is longer than anticipated
by the Scottish Government but, ultimately, all 28 Member States
have the right to veto if they are unhappy with the terms of a
separate Scotland's membership of the EU. That the Scottish Government
does not take this threat seriously demonstrates a lack of understanding
of the realities of international politics.
87. It is understandable
that a country securing independence would not want the process
of separation to drag on indefinitely but, in setting a timeframe
of just 18 months from the Referendum to the date of separation,
the Scottish Government has weakened its hand in negotiations,
not just with the UK but also with the EU, with potentially damaging
consequences for Scotland. By setting such a deadline, the Scottish
Government has put itself under a great deal of pressure to ensure
that the negotiations fit the timescale. As Aidan O'Neill QC explained
to the European and External Affairs Committee of the Scottish
Parliament, "the question for the Scottish electorate is
then: what concessions will have to be made along the way to meet
that timescale?"[109]
88. Eighteen months is an implausible
timeframe for negotiations to be complete and treaties ratified.
Scotland leaving the UK would alone require complex and difficult
negotiations. Key discussions on the conditions of Scotland's
membership of the EU would be contingent upon the outcome of negotiations
with the UK on budgets, borders, currencies and financial regulation
to name but a few. It would be impossible for the UK to put forward
coherent treaty amendments to other Member States until these
arrangements had been finalised. The only way separation and EU
membership might be achievable within 18 months is if the Scottish
Government accepted significant concessions at every sticking
point in the negotiations - doing so, just to meet a timetable
of its own devising, would be irresponsible and to the detriment
of Scotland in the long term.
89. It is clear that a separate Scotland's
conditions of EU membership would not be as favourable as they
are now, not least because the cost per household of Scotland's
contributions to the EU would rise significantly as Scotland ceased
to benefit from the UK's rebate. The cost of basic items such
as food, books and children's clothes could also increase and
payments to farmers could be cut.
90. There is a great deal of uncertainty
surrounding the Scottish Government's plans for EU membership,
the process Scotland must use to become a Member State being a
prime example. As Sir David Edward commented, "as far as
EU law is concerned, the only certainty (apart from the obligation
to negotiate) is uncertainty. But that, at least, the people are
entitled to know."[110]
107 Evidence taken before the European and External
Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament, 20 February 2014,
p1812 Back
108
Evidence taken before the European and External Relations Committee
of the Scottish Parliament, 20 February 2014, p1824 Back
109
Evidence taken before the European and External Relations Committee
of the Scottish Parliament, 23 January 2014, p1702 Back
110
Written evidence to the European and External Relations Committee
of the Scottish Parliament Back
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