The Referendum on Separation for Scotland: Scotland's Membership of the EU - Scottish Affairs Committee Contents


5  Conclusion

84. Scotland is unlike other European countries that wish to join, or have joined, the European Union. It has been present within the EU, as part of the UK, for the last forty years and is home to five million people who are currently EU citizens. This does not mean Scotland's bid for membership of the EU as a separate state would be straightforward. Substantial, difficult and wide-ranging negotiations would still need to take place - on whatever issues the existing Member States raise. As Jim Currie, former Director General at the EU Commission, commented, nothing should be assumed:

    There is a sense in which, on one hand, Scotland's right to membership is clear. The conditions under which membership is gained would be up for negotiation and those negotiations would be tough and perhaps even lengthy.[107]

85. The accession negotiations for Croatia, the most recent country to join the EU, lasted six years. Scotland's circumstances are different and aspects of its bid for membership could proceed relatively smoothly. For example, because Scotland already transposes and works within EU law, it would be unrealistic to envisage negotiations about each page of the 80,000 pages of acquis (though some consideration would be required as explained in para 48). But, unlike Croatia, Scotland would be demanding opt-outs in a number of key areas that are fundamental to the aspirations of the European Union, such as universal Justice and Home Affairs measures, Schengen and the single currency. The Scottish Government asserts that, as a separate Scotland, "we can and we should" continue to benefit from the opt-outs negotiated by the UK, but there is no reason why the Member States should just accept Scotland's demands particularly when they are unable to exercise similar arrangements themselves: Jim Currie said, "it will not be a matter of the doors being opened and Scotland sailing through".[108]

86. All Member States will have a say in Scotland's membership and several of those have separatist movements within their own boundaries. Member States may object to a Scottish state securing favourable terms or for its passage to membership of the EU passing smoothly because of the precedent this would set for other separatist aspirations. We agree with the conclusion of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee that the Scottish Government "underestimates the unease which exists within EU Member States and EU institutions about Scottish independence". Not only does this mean that the period required for negotiations is longer than anticipated by the Scottish Government but, ultimately, all 28 Member States have the right to veto if they are unhappy with the terms of a separate Scotland's membership of the EU. That the Scottish Government does not take this threat seriously demonstrates a lack of understanding of the realities of international politics.

87. It is understandable that a country securing independence would not want the process of separation to drag on indefinitely but, in setting a timeframe of just 18 months from the Referendum to the date of separation, the Scottish Government has weakened its hand in negotiations, not just with the UK but also with the EU, with potentially damaging consequences for Scotland. By setting such a deadline, the Scottish Government has put itself under a great deal of pressure to ensure that the negotiations fit the timescale. As Aidan O'Neill QC explained to the European and External Affairs Committee of the Scottish Parliament, "the question for the Scottish electorate is then: what concessions will have to be made along the way to meet that timescale?"[109]

88. Eighteen months is an implausible timeframe for negotiations to be complete and treaties ratified. Scotland leaving the UK would alone require complex and difficult negotiations. Key discussions on the conditions of Scotland's membership of the EU would be contingent upon the outcome of negotiations with the UK on budgets, borders, currencies and financial regulation to name but a few. It would be impossible for the UK to put forward coherent treaty amendments to other Member States until these arrangements had been finalised. The only way separation and EU membership might be achievable within 18 months is if the Scottish Government accepted significant concessions at every sticking point in the negotiations - doing so, just to meet a timetable of its own devising, would be irresponsible and to the detriment of Scotland in the long term.

89. It is clear that a separate Scotland's conditions of EU membership would not be as favourable as they are now, not least because the cost per household of Scotland's contributions to the EU would rise significantly as Scotland ceased to benefit from the UK's rebate. The cost of basic items such as food, books and children's clothes could also increase and payments to farmers could be cut.

90. There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the Scottish Government's plans for EU membership, the process Scotland must use to become a Member State being a prime example. As Sir David Edward commented, "as far as EU law is concerned, the only certainty (apart from the obligation to negotiate) is uncertainty. But that, at least, the people are entitled to know."[110]


107   Evidence taken before the European and External Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament, 20 February 2014, p1812 Back

108   Evidence taken before the European and External Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament, 20 February 2014, p1824 Back

109   Evidence taken before the European and External Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament, 23 January 2014, p1702 Back

110   Written evidence to the European and External Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament Back


 
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Prepared 27 May 2014