1 Introduction
Background
1. It is human nature to think and, on occasion,
worry about the future and it is therefore unsurprising that we
sometimes attempt to predict it. We draw confidence from the belief
that a future foreseen can be better managed, its opportunities
capitalised on and its threats mitigated, if not always prevented.
In some circumstances, science has helped us to become relatively
adept at predicting the future: the Met Office, for example, uses
sophisticated scientific techniques to deliver a high degree of
accuracy in its short-term forecasting.[1]
Unfortunately, as real-world events—from natural disasters,
to global political and economic crises and the emergence of new
technologies—repeatedly demonstrate, such accuracy is rarely
possible in the medium to long-term. The future is therefore likely
to always retain its ability to surprise us.[2]
2. This is problematic for governments, whose responsibility
it is to prepare policies fit for an inherently unpredictable
future while managing an already complex present, often under
the pressure of a short-term parliamentary cycle. Governments
have therefore developed a range of strategies intended to help
them prepare for the long-term.[3]
One strategy favoured by the current UK administration is horizon
scanning: an attempt to systematically imagine rather than predict
the future so that it can be better managed when it arrives, whatever
form it may take. In late 2012, as part of its efforts to ensure
that horizon scanning was being used effectively to inform policy
making, the Government commissioned a cross-departmental review
led by Jon Day, Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee.
The Day review, published in January 2013, concluded that while
the UK did not "lack the resources to conduct horizon scanning",
a deficit of "truly cross-governmental oversight and coordination"
had prevented it from reaching (and influencing) the relevant
audiences.[4] Mr Day recommended
action to "improve upon and formalise the structures for
directing work and making use of the end product".[5]
Consequently, in July 2013 the Government announced that it would
be "taking a new, joined-up approach" to cross-departmental
horizon scanning through the creation of a new horizon scanning
programme.[6] Included
within the remit of this programme was the formation of two new
steering groups to be located in the Cabinet Office and operated
under the leadership of the Cabinet Secretary, Sir Jeremy Heywood.
According to the Government, these groups would share best practice
in horizon scanning, minimise duplication and ensure that implications
for policy were highlighted at the right levels across government,
in addition to overseeing "several new strands of work to
inform major areas of policy".[7]
This report examines the programme and considers more broadly
the Government's approach to horizon scanning.
Our inquiry
3. In July 2013, we issued a call for written evidence
addressing the following issues[8]:
a) How
do government departments make use of horizon scanning?
b) How effective
is horizon scanning in government? Do Ministers and senior officials
consider horizon scanning outputs appropriately?
c) What changes
could be made to improve existing horizon scanning activity? Will
the recommendations made in Jon Day's review of cross-government
horizon scanning capability address current shortcomings? What
progress has been made implementing these?
d) How effective
is the Government at responding to policy or regulatory challenges
presented by new technologies?
We also asked for evidence on three case studies:
3D printing; autonomous road vehicles and intelligent transport
infrastructure; and negative emissions technologies. In relation
to these case studies, we asked:
e) What
are (or were) the policy challenges presented by this technology?
How have these challenges been identified?
f) How prepared
is (or was) the Government to react to challenges presented by
this technology? How effective was this reaction?
Insights from these case studies are not explicitly
examined in the report but have contributed to our deliberations.
4. During the inquiry, we received 18 written submissions
and took oral evidence from 17 witnesses, including:
- Horizon scanning experts from
across industry, academia and the third sector;
- Representatives of the national science academies
and learned societies;
- Senior civil servants Sir Jeremy Heywood, Cabinet
Secretary and Jon Day, Chair of the Horizon Scanning Oversight
Group, Cabinet Office;
- The Government's Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor
Sir Mark Walport; and
- The Government, represented by the Rt Hon Oliver
Letwin MP, Minister for Government Policy, Cabinet Office (hereafter
"the Minister").
We would like to thank those who provided written
and oral evidence.
5. In this report we consider horizon scanning in
its broadest sense, as a suite of techniques used by the Government
to help it imagine and prepare for the future. Chapter 2 sets
out the case for horizon scanning, briefly considering what it
entails, how it is defined and where in government it has typically
taken place. The chapter ends with a brief summary of the Day
review and its key findings. Chapter 3 then examines the new horizon
scanning programme set-up as a result of the Day review and offers
several recommendations for its improvement.
1 Science and Technology Committee, Thirteenth Report
of Session 2010-12, Science in the Met Office, HC1538 Back
2
Science and Technology Committee, Thirteenth Report of Session
2010-12, Science in the Met Office, HC1538 Back
3
See also Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report
of Session 2006-07, Governing the Future, HC123-1 and also
Public Administration Select Committee, Twenty Fourth Report of
Session 2010-12, Strategic thinking in Government, HC1625 Back
4
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning,
January 2013, paras 3 and 6 Back
5
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning,
January 2013, para 3 Back
6
Cabinet Office/Government Office for Science, "Horizon scanning
programme: a new approach for policy making", 12 July 2013 Back
7
Cabinet Office/Government Office for Science, "Horizon scanning
programme: a new approach for policy making", 12 July 2013 Back
8
Science and Technology Committee, "Horizon scanning in Government
departments", 15 July 2013 Back
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