3 A new way forward?
The Government's new horizon scanning
programme
29. Following the publication of the Day review in
January 2013, the Government announced in July that it had initiated
a new horizon scanning programme.[89]
The programme, it stated, was to be led by the Cabinet Secretary,
Sir Jeremy Heywood, with ministerial oversight from the Minister
for the Cabinet Office (Francis Maude MP), the Minister for Government
Policy (Oliver Letwin MP) and the Minister of State for the Cabinet
Office (David Laws MP).[90]
Under a new governance structure implemented as part of the programme,
Sir Jeremy was to be advised by a group of senior civil servants
known as the Cabinet Secretary's Advisory Group (CSAG), which
was itself to be supported by a second group of civil servants
known as the Horizon Scanning Oversight Group (GOSH), chaired
by Jon Day, Chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee and author
of the Day review.[91]
30. As part of the new horizon scanning programme,
the Government stated that it had "commissioned several new
strands of work to inform major areas of policy". It was
announced that these strands were:
· emerging
technologies;
· emerging economies;
· changing supply
and demand of resources;
· changing social
attitudes of young people; and
· the future
of demographic change in the UK.[92]
For each of these five strands, the Government stated
that departments would work together in "communities of interest"
to coordinate the production of horizon scanning and determine
broad policy implications, which would then be reviewed, "two
or three times a year", by CSAG and GOSH.[93]
Departmental membership of CSAG, GOSH and the five communities
of interest is detailed in Table 1.Table
1: Membership of The Cabinet Secretary's Advisory Group (CSAG),
Horizon Scanning Oversight Group (GOSH) and communities of interest,
as of December 2013[94]
Department[95]
| CSAG | GOSH
| Communities of interest
|
| | | Emerging technologies
| Social attitudes of young people
| Supply & demand of resources
| Emerging economies | Demographic change
|
Business, Innovation & Skills
| X
| X
| X
| X
| X
| X
| X
|
GO-Science | X
| X
| X
| X
| | | |
Cabinet Office | X
| X
| X
| X
| X
| | |
Communities & Local Government
| X
| X
| X
| X
| X
| | x
|
Culture, Media and Sport |
| | X
| | | |
|
Education | X
| | | X
| | | X
|
Energy and Climate Change |
| X
| X
| | X
| | |
Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
| | | X
| | X
| | |
Foreign & Commonwealth Office
| X
| X
| X
| | X
| X
| X
|
Health | X
| X
| X
| X
| X
| | X
|
Her Majesty's Treasury |
X
| X
| X
| | | X
| X
|
Home Office |
| X
| X
| X
| | | X
|
International Development |
X
| X
| X
| | X
| X
| X
|
Ministry of Defence | X
| X
| X
| X
| X
| X
| |
Ministry of Justice |
| | X
| X
| | | |
Transport |
| X
| X
| X
| | | |
Work & Pensions | X
| X
| X
| X
| | X
| X
|
Northern Ireland Executive
| | | X
| | X
| | X
|
Welsh Government |
| | X
| x
| X
| | X
|
Scottish Government |
| | X
| | X
| | X
|
31. Witnesses were broadly in favour of the new programme. The
Royal Society supported the Government's "increasing interest
in horizon scanning" and Intelligent Transport Systems UK
stated that the changes recommended by the Day review were "necessary
and we welcome them".[96]
Cranfield University's Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures
(CERF) agreed that the recommendations were "generally well
founded" and Fiona Lickorish, head of CERF, highlighted the
new organisational structure as being particularly useful.[97]
Witnesses recognised the historic silos that existed between departments
and were particularly supportive of the decision to locate the
new programme in the Cabinet Office. The Royal Academy of Engineering
stated that the Cabinet Office was the "clear choice"
of locus for horizon scanning and considered that this location
would "help support cross-departmental activity".[98]
Ms Lickorish agreed that the new programme should be located in
the Cabinet Office and Jessica Bland, Nesta, was also "very
pro the idea of a central function".[99]
The Government told us that the Day review had also been "well
received in government" and that there had been "buy-in
from departments at all levels to engage with the new programme".[100]
It highlighted that all government departments were involved in
"at least one" community of interest and considered
this to be indicative of the "progress" achieved by
the new programme.[101]
However, it stated that it was "too early to make a comprehensive
assessment" as to whether the new programme had "effectively
addressed the gaps identified in the [Day] review".[102]
Mr Day was content that
the Government had implemented his recommendations as he had intended
but stated that it was "still too early to say whether they
have been as successful as I had hoped".[103]
Areas for improvement
THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT OFFICE
FOR SCIENCE (GO-SCIENCE)
32. The quality of the work of the Government Office
for Science (GO-Science)particularly that of the Foresight
programmewas strongly endorsed by witnesses. Intelligent
Transport Systems UK (ITS UK) described Foresight's 2006 report
on intelligent infrastructure as "ambitious", "detailed"
and "respectfully received by the transport community"
and Natalie Day, Oxford Martin School, stated that "many"
Foresight reports had proved to be "instrumental".[104]
The Government itself also highlighted the quality of Foresight's
work. Sir Jeremy Heywood, Cabinet Secretary, stated that Foresight
reports were typically of "impeccable quality", describing
them as "brilliant pieces of work, really original and path-breaking",
while the Minister compared the Foresight unit to a Rolls Royce,
which "purrs along and then every couple of years you get
one of these great things".[105]
However, Foresight's work has not always been used effectively
by policy-makers. ITS UK stated, for example, that Foresight's
intelligent infrastructure report had had "little lasting
impact on subsequent policy" and Sir Jeremy said that while
GO-Science had "over many years" conducted "some
really excellent work", this had "not always translated
into actual policy changes".[106]
33. Given the high standard of the work conducted
by the Foresight programmeand its role, in recent years,
as the only cross-cutting horizon scanning function in Government
(see paragraph 20)several witnesses were puzzled that GO-Science
did not play a more substantial role in the new horizon scanning
programme. Dr Martyn Thomas, Royal Academy of Engineering (RAEng),
stated that "the role of GO-Science, the work of the Government
Chief Scientific Adviser [GCSA], and in particular the network
of departmental CSAs [Chief Scientific Advisers]" had not
been "stressed anything like enough" in the Day review.[107]
Jonathan Cowie, former head of policy at the Institute of Biology,
agreed that GO-Science should be "more involved" in
government horizon scanning.[108]
The review did not set out any specific role for departmental
CSAs and although several are represented on the Horizon Scanning
Oversight Group (GOSH), none are included in any of the five communities
of interest.[109] GO-Science
itself is represented in three of the five communities of interest
but is not represented in the groups relating to "changing
supply and demand of resources" or "emerging economies".[110]
34. Sir Mark Walport, the current GCSA and the head
of GO-Science, described GO-Science's role in the new horizon
scanning programme as follows:
We provide support for it. We work, as we have
done, on identifying important areas of the future where science,
engineering and technology are likely to make contributions and
we do detailed pieces of work. Working with the Cabinet Secretary's
group [CSAG] we have been doing work in support of demography,
which underpins almost every aspect of future policy. And demography
feeds very nicely into our work on Future Cities. I don't think
there is any incompatibility at all.[111]
Sir Jeremy, Cabinet Secretary, said that GO-Science
was "playing a very good role" in the new programme;
however, the Minister acknowledged that links between the GO-Science
and the Cabinet Office could be improved, stating that an "issue"
which he needed to "take up and resolve" was "the
connection [...] between the Foresight programme and the horizon
scanning programme".[112]
The Minister explained:
I would like to feel confidentwhich I
do not at the momentthat [the Foresight programme] and
[the new horizon scanning programme] are brought together in a
way which means that in horizon scanning we make maximum use of
the Foresight programme to make sure it is easily translated,
but also that we feed back into it. I think I am right in saying
that there are about 20 people employed in the Government Office
for Science on the Foresight programme. That is quite a big, powerful
and intellectually able resource, and we need to make sure that
it is correctly connected with this exercise.[113]
GO-Science's location in Government
35. There is evidence to suggest that the apparent
disconnect between the Government's two cross-departmental horizon
scanning programmes and Foresight's limited policy impact can
both be linked to GO-Science's non-central location in government.
Fiona Lickorish, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures (CERF),
stated that Foresight's work had been "perhaps sidelined"
because of its location in the Department for Business, Innovation
and Skills and that uptake of its outputs had "not been as
good" as it could have been if the unit had been "more
centrally located in government".[114]
Ms Lickorish added:
I worked with the strategic horizons unit when
it was in the Cabinet Office, and it appeared to havethis
is no fault of [...] Foresighta lot more purchase across
government than what was currently available in GO-Science.[115]
Mr Day also appeared to recognise the importance
of a central location and recommended in his review that "strategic
coordination of horizon scanning activity" be provided by
the Cabinet Office in order to "remove departmental compartmentalisation
and generate an agreed view on cross cutting issues".[116]
He also stressed the need for horizon scanning to have a "senior
champion" with cross-departmental influence.[117]
The efficacy of these measures in "embedding horizon scanning
in the culture of the Civil Service" appeared to be borne
out by Sir Mark, who stated that Mr Day's work had "been
very helpful for the Government Office for Science and the Horizon
Scanning Centre because it has enabled our work to be embedded
much more effectively across government".[118]
36. We regard
the work of the Foresight programme to be excellent and consider
its relative lack of impact on policy to be a reflection of GO-Science's
non-central location in Government rather than the quality of
the Foresight programme's outputs.
37. Our predecessor committees have suggested on
several occasions that GO-Science and the GCSA's role, to ensure
that "the best scientific advice" is utilised at "all
levels of government", would be more easily fulfilled if
both were to be moved to a more central location in government.[119]
In its October 2006 report on Scientific Advice, Risk and Evidence
Based Policy Making, the Committee stated that the Cabinet
Office "would in many respects be a natural location for
the Government Chief Scientific Adviser [GCSA], reflecting his
role as Chief Scientific Adviser [CSA] to the Cabinet and Prime
Minister, his cross-departmental remit and his independence".[120]
The Committee concluded that "in view of the cross-cutting
nature of science and the cross-departmental responsibilities"
of the GCSA, "it would make sense for the post to be based
in a department with a similarly cross-cutting remit": that
is, the Cabinet Office.[121]
In March 2009, the Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills
(IUSS) Committee made the same recommendation in its report Engineering:
turning ideas into reality.[122]
The Committee proposed that both the office of the GCSA and GO-Science
as a whole should be "placed in the Cabinet Office",
explaining that:
These proposals would be easy for the Government
to implement, would put down a marker of the Government's commitment
to evidence-based policy, and would lay the structural and cultural
foundations for a more evidence-focused civil service.[123]
This recommendation was made for a third time in
July 2009 in the IUSS's report Putting Science and Engineering
at the Heart of Government Policy. This stated that:
The Government had an opportunity at the last
reshuffle to move GO-Science as per our recommendation in the
engineering report. That it did not, was a missed opportunity.
As the Government Chief Scientific Adviser explained, location
matters because it affords daily face-to-face interaction between
colleagues in the same building; and as he further pointed out,
he has only seen the Prime Minster four times in the past year.
We therefore appeal directly to the Prime Minster, who is responsible
for GO-Science, to bring it into the Cabinet Office alongside
the Strategy Unit.[124]
The previous Government repeatedly rejected these
recommendations. In its response to the Committee's 2006 report,
the Government stated that the location of the GCSA post was "a
matter for the Prime Minister", but promised to keep this
"under review".[125]
Three years later, in its response to the Committee's Engineering
report, the Government accepted that there remained "room
for improvement" in ensuring that appropriate scientific
and engineering advice was available across government, but stated
that is was "fully confident in the ability of the GCSA to
take this forward within the newly formed Department for Business,
Innovation and Skills".[126]
The Government reiterated that this decision would be "kept
under review".[127]
Finally, in its response to Putting Science and Engineering
at the Heart of Government Policy, the Government stated that
the Prime Minister considered GO-Science to be "best located
within BIS" and did "not recognise [the] Committee's
assessment of his engagement with the GCSA as 'woefully inadequate'".[128]
38. Our predecessor Committees hoped that a more
central location for GO-Science would improve the level of contact
between the Prime Minister and his Chief Scientific Adviser. In
November 2010 the Prime Minister told the Liaison Committee, that
he would "certainly" spend more time with his scientific
advisers in the future.[129]
We have therefore kept close note of this relationship over the
last four years. In March 2013, at the end of his tenure as GCSA,
we asked Sir John Beddington how often he had met the Prime Minister
during his time in post. Sir John responded that he had written
to the Prime Minister "over 40 times" during this Parliament
and had "usually" received a reply, but acknowledged
that he had "not seen him and banged the table".[130]
In our previous session with Sir John, in October 2012, he had
stated that he had spent time with the Prime Minister on "two
occasions" in the previous 12 months.[131]
When we asked Sir Mark the same question in April 2013 he acknowledged
that he had not yet met the Prime Minister in his capacity as
GCSA.[132] When we
asked again in December, Sir Mark admitted to only a single "one-to-one
meeting", although he added that he had seen the Prime Minister
"at other events" and considered himself to have had
"good contact" with him.[133]
39. We consider
the Government's position regarding the location of GO-Science
to be illogical, particularly in light of its recent decision
to place horizon scanningquite rightly in our viewat
the heart of government decision-making, in the Cabinet Office.
Horizon scanning is a cross-cutting activity with widespread and
potentially significant policy implications, which the Government
has committed to embedding across the Civil Service. The same
can be said for much of the work of GO-Science. We are therefore
at a loss to understand why a recommendation accepted as good
practice for onenamely strategic coordination of horizon
scanning from the Cabinet Officehas repeatedly been rejected
for the other. We again recommend that
GO-Science be relocated from the Department for Business, Innovation
and Skills to the Cabinet Office, where it can more easily fulfil
its remit of ensuring that the best scientific evidence is utilised
across government.
40. From its
new location, we hope that GO-Science would naturally become more
fully integrated into the horizon scanning programme. However,
we also think that this relationship would benefit from being
formally strengthened. We recommend that
the Government Chief Scientific Adviser sit permanently on both
the Cabinet Secretary's Advisory Group (CSAG) and the Horizon
Scanning Oversight Group (GOSH) and that GO-Science be represented
in all communities of interest. We also encourage Departmental
Chief Scientific Advisers (DCSAs) to engage more closely with
the programme and suggest that DCSAs or their deputies offer themselves
as representatives for any community of interest in which their
department has an interest.
TRANSPARENCY AND COMMUNICATION
The argument for transparency
41. Witnesses considered good communication to be
central to successful horizon scanning. Marcus Morrell, Arup,
stated that communication was a "very important" element
of any horizon scanning exercise and that it was "critical"
for results to be communicated "in a clear way" so that
users could "accessibly digest the material and findings".[134]
Doug McKay, Shell, agreed and added that it was necessary to "invest
a substantial amount of time in the communication of the results"
if horizon scanning were to achieve proper user engagement.[135]
The Foresight Toolkit, a predecessor to the current Horizon Scanning
Toolkit, recommended that "25 per cent of an initial budget
for a foresight programme should be put aside for communicating
findings after publication".[136]
Witnesses also recommended that the results of government horizon
scanning should be shared with the public, although with some
caveats. Intelligent Transport Systems UK (ITS UK) stated that
the "outputs from state-funded horizon scanning work"
should be "made available to the public to read within a
sensible time frame" and Professor Steve Rayner, University
of Oxford, considered "openness and transparency" to
be "fundamental precondition[s] for maintaining public trust
and confidence".[137]
However, both of these witnesses also acknowledged the risks of
absolute transparency. Professor Rayner stated that, "in
some circumstances", the benefits of "un-self-censored"
horizon scanning might outweigh the benefits of full transparency.[138]
ITS UK also recognised that exceptions might need to be made where
publication carried "evident risks, in areas such as defence
or security".[139]
42. The extent to which the outputs of government
horizon scanning are currently published appears to vary. All
major Foresight reports are published on the GO-Science website
and are widely publicised across stakeholder groups.[140]
However, witnesses perceived reluctance from some departments
to publish the outputs of their horizon scanning work. The Institution
of Engineering and Technology (IET) stated that "many departments"
were "less than enthusiastic about publicising" such
outputs because "what can be seen at the horizon is too easily
ridiculed by cynics or the media".[141]
ITS UK also highlighted the "risk of negative publicity",
but stated that this was "not a valid reason for not publishing"
horizon scanning outputs.[142]
It agreed that there was currently a "lack of openness"
in government horizon scanning.[143]
43. We accept
that it may sometimes be necessary for the findings of government
horizon scanning to remain confidential, particularly when they
relate to sensitive issues such as security and defence. However,
such cases should be the exception, not the rule. With
these exceptions, we propose that the outputs of all government
horizon scanning be made transparent. This
recommendation applies both to centrally-managed horizon scanning
and that conducted at the departmental level, which we consider
to be somewhat poorly communicated at present.
Communication and the new horizon scanning programme
44. When asked whether the new horizon scanning programme's
outputs would be published, Mr Day stated that the "presumption"
would be "in favour of publication" unless there was
"a reason not to".[144]
The Minister clarified this position by distinguishing between
the two 'sides' of a horizon scanning exercise. He explained:
On the first of those two sidesthe collection
of evidence, projections and the translation of those into possible
scenariosmy view is that we should be maximally transparent.
[...] We should go beyond mere transparency into a positive programme
of communication, making sure this is widely disseminated and
people can comment, and that we make use of the comments and go
back to them in an interactive process.[145]
On the other side, however, when it comes to
how Departments make use of that set of scenarios and understanding
of the possible futures in their policy, I do not think we can
at all guarantee to be public about that. That will depend case
by case on what it makes sense to reveal and not reveal.[146]
The Minister stated that, as reports emerged from
the programme, they would be published "right away"
so that the aforementioned "interactive process" between
the Government and the wider community could take place.[147]
In December 2013, Mr Day told us that one of the programme's exercises
had "been through the full process" and would be published
"as soon as possible next year".[148]
However, the Government has not yet, to our knowledge, published
any outputs or any additional information about the programme
since it was first announced in July 2013. The programme also
does not appear to have a dedicated webpage on either Gov.UK or
the current GO-Science website.
45. We
were encouraged by the Minister's plans to "go beyond mere
transparency into a positive programme of communication"
as part of the new horizon scanning programme. However, several
months in, we have not yet seen any evidence of this occurring.
We have been disappointed by the lack of information shared about
this programmeparticularly in relation to its individual
work strandsand do not feel that this lays a strong groundwork
for the interactive approach which the Minister claims the programme
will soon be taking. We
recommend that the Government enhance the visibility and transparency
of the new horizon scanning programme by promptly setting up a
dedicated gov.uk webpage. The new webpage should:
a) detail
the background and objectives of the programme;
b) clearly
set out the landscape for government horizon scanning, detailing
the roles and responsibilities of all major centres of activity;
c) set-out
the terms of reference and current membership of the Cabinet Secretary's
Advisory Group (CSAG) and the Horizon Scanning Oversight Group
(GOSH);
d) provide
access to the minutes of meetings of both CSAG and GOSH;
e) detail
the objectives, scope and planned activities for each work strand,
together with membership of the relevant community of interest;
f) provide
links to all of the programme's outputs and supporting documentation,
including a facility for comment and interactive engagement, and
g) provide
information and contact details for organisations and individuals
who wish to become involved with the programme.
This webpage should be launched by July 2014 at
the latest.
46. We also encourage all departments to increase
the transparency of their own horizon scanning by providing links
to key departmental outputs through this central page and by making
supporting information available via a public hub such as data.gov.uk.
Transparency should be a key feature of the regular reviews of
departmental horizon scanning recommended in paragraph 23.
47. We consider better communication and improved
transparency to be essential precursors to mending another shortcoming
in the current programme: that is, the lack of opportunity for
external engagement.
EXTERNAL ENGAGEMENT
48. In its 2006 report, Governing the Future,
the Public Administration Select Committee pointed out that
"the ability to think strategically depends, in part, on
a willingness to listen to challenges and contrary views".[149]
It stated that "involving a wide range of people" in
such activities was therefore "important".[150]
Witnesses to this inquiry strongly agreed that a wide range of
external viewpoints should be incorporated during any horizon
scanning exercise. The Royal Academy of Engineering stated that
horizon scanning should be conducted in an environment that was
"open to challenge" and stressed the need to include
"the views of those outside of the civil service and government".[151]
Fiona Lickorish, CERF, explained that this was because it was
often "easier" for an external person to "probe"
issues "a little bit further" and ask "difficult
questions", allowing them to be "aired and talked about".[152]
Doug McKay, Shell, agreed, pointing out that if horizon scanning
was "all internal" it would result in people "saying
the same thing" as they had said before".[153]
The Day review acknowledged the need for government horizon scanning
to undergo "robust challenge" in order "to ensure
credibility and enable the development of implications for policy
and strategy".[154]
It recommended that policy-makers, industry and academia should
engage with the new programme through membership of the communities
of interest (see figure 1) and that the Cabinet Secretary's Advisory
Group (CSAG) should include a "non-executive director",
appointed by the Cabinet Secretary, "to provide external
views and challenge".[155]
49. The Government also acknowledged "the power
of engaging with external stakeholders and experts" and agreed
that "external challenge" was central to the testing
of horizon scanning's assumptions and implications.[156]
However, the Government has not, to date, implemented the Day
review's recommendations to involve external stakeholders in the
communities of interest and appoint a non-executive director to
CSAG. Mr Day stated that this was because the first year of the
programme had been "focused on doing this internally within
Government" but that "increasingly, we are now moving
out and engaging with the private sector and academia".[157]
50. Government
horizon scanning must be open to challenge if it is to be effective
and this means that it must accommodate a range of external viewpoints.
This was made clear in the Day review and we were therefore surprised
and disappointed to discover that none of the bodies created in
its aftermath currently include any external representation. While
we acknowledge the need for government horizon scanning to be
government-led, we see little value in a horizon scanning exercise
which does not incorporate a broader perspective.
Engaging with scientific experts
51. Cutting-edge science and technology are frequently
the subject of horizon scanning projects: 'emerging technologies'
has been singled-out as one of the new horizon scanning programme's
five strands of work. However, as a "systematic examination
of information", horizon scanning itself can also be considered
a form of scientific activity.[158]
Jessica Bland, Nesta, stated that scientific techniques such as
modelling were an increasingly common tool in horizon scanning
and a recent Nesta study has shown that other quantitative techniques
such as bibliometrics (the statistical analysis of publications)
and social network analysis are also becoming increasingly important.[159]
In addition, Professor Ann Buchanan, Academy of Social Sciences,
and Dr Martyn Thomas, Royal Academy of Engineering (RAEng), stressed
the contribution to be made by social scientists[160],
arguing that this area of expertise was "absolutely essential"
to many horizon scanning projects.[161]
Fiona Lickorish, CERF, agreed that horizon scanning was a "social
science activity" and added that if there were areas of horizon
scanning in which scientific expertise was not of use, then "I
haven't ever done them".[162]
52. An obvious mechanism for involving external scientific
experts in the horizon scanning process would be through membership
of CSAG and the topic-focused communities of interest, as recommended
by the Day review. Dr Thomas, RAEng, stated that CSAG, in particular,
should "link more closely with all the national academies"
to ensure that relevant experts could contribute to its work.[163]
The Royal Society agreed that the national academies could play
"an important role in assisting the horizon scanning efforts
of government", in part because of their access to "wide
and deep" scientific networks, while Jonathan Cowie, former
Head of Science Policy at the Institute of Biology, highlighted
that smaller learned societies also had access
to "a substantial body of considerable
specialist expertise".[164]
The Institution of Engineering and Technology suggested that since
"the delivery of policy for many Departments [...] rests
heavily on public and private industry" it would "seem
sensible to expand the membership of both the CSAG and [GOSH]
to reflect this" by including representatives from industry
on the two steering groups.[165]
53. Sir Mark Walport, the Government Chief Scientific
Adviser, acknowledged the importance of science to futures thinking
and stated that departmental CSAs had "clearly defined responsibilities"
to ensure that there was "sufficient scientific input into
horizon scanning across government".[166]
He added that he "could not conceive" of a horizon scanning
group "that did not have scientific input" and stated
that "it would be surprising" if "science, engineering,
technology and social science" were "not to have a very
strong input into the Cabinet Secretary's Advisory Group".[167]
Sir Jeremy Heywood, Cabinet Secretary, said that he did not "rule
out bringing in a couple of non-execs or some outsiders on to
our group [CSAG], or Jon Day's challenge group [GOSH]", but
stated that "the area where I really want to see the external
input would be the communities of interest", "where
the actual work on looking at best thinking and developing hypotheses
gets done".[168]
54. At its best,
horizon scanning is underpinned by scientific techniques and can
be enhanced by the involvement of scientific experts, whatever
the topic. We therefore recommend that
representatives of each of the UK national academiesthe
Royal Society, the British Academy and the Royal Academy of Engineeringbe
included as observers on the Horizon Scanning Oversight Group
(GOSH) and that membership of the communities of interest be immediately
opened up to external organisations, including academic groups,
learned societies and industry.
Engaging with Parliament
55. The new horizon scanning programme does not currently
appear to facilitate any parliamentary input, despite the existence
of significant horizon scanning activity and expertise across
both the House of Commons and the House of Lords. For example,
the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology (POST) is a
bicameral office that aims to "anticipate policy implications"
of current science and technology issues in order to provide parliamentarians
with "independent, balanced and accessible analysis"
of these issues.[169]
POST's work is overseen by a Board comprised of parliamentarians
drawn from both Houses and several "leading non-parliamentarians
from the science and technology community".[170]
POST also maintains close relationships with a wide range of academic
and other stakeholders and runs a programme of parliamentary events
intended to "stimulate debate on a range of topics",
making it a key potential point of contact between parliamentarians
and the wider community.[171]
POST's expertise in futures research was recognised in the Public
Administration Select Committee's 2006 report, Governing the
future, which recommended that it form the basis for a dedicated
"futures forum" where parliamentarians could "work
with external bodies to inform themselves and stimulate debate".[172]
The Committee stated that such a forum could "build on the
excellent work conducted by [POST] in providing information and
a forum for debate in Parliament on scientific issues" and
recommended that POST be "strengthened" to "enhance
its work" in this field.[173]
56. Horizon scanning also forms part of the remit
of parliamentary Select Committees. In the House of Commons, for
example, the majority of Select Committees are appointed to "examine
the expenditure, administration and policy" of their principle
departmentall matters inherently linked to a department's
expectations and plans for the future.[174]
Indeed, the Science and Technology Committee has frequently considered
topics informed by, or made necessary as a result of, horizon
scanning; for example our recent inquiries on antimicrobial resistance[175],
the communication of climate science[176]
and scientific advice and evidence in emergencies.[177]
57. We consider
it vital that the horizon scanning conducted on behalf of Government
informs and is informed by the horizon scanning conducted on behalf
of Parliament. We consider the Parliamentary Office of Science
and Technology (POST) to be one possible conduit for this flow
of information. We recommend that representatives
from POST act as observers on all relevant communities of interest
included within the new horizon scanning programme.
58. We also recommend that the Government establishes
a method through which parliamentarians with an interest in horizon
scanningfor example, Select Committee Chairs and Memberscan
engage with the new horizon scanning programme.
89 Cabinet Office/Government Office for Science, "Horizon
scanning programme: a new approach for policy making", 12
July 2013 Back
90
Cabinet Office/Government Office for Science, "Horizon scanning
programme: a new approach for policy making", 12 July 2013;
GHS015 [HM Government] para 33 Back
91
Cabinet Office/Government Office for Science, "Horizon scanning
programme: a new approach for policy making", 12 July 2013 Back
92
Cabinet Office/Government Office for Science, "Horizon scanning
programme: a new approach for policy making", 12 July 2013 Back
93
GHS015 [Gov] para 32; Q208 [Mr Day] Back
94
GHS019 [HM Government supplementary] Back
95
Only Government Departments and devolved administrations listed.
See GHS019 for a full list. Back
96
GHS009 [Royal Society] para 3; GHS002 [ITS UK} para 2.4 Back
97
GHS005 [CERF] para 5.1; Q105 [Ms Lickorish] Back
98
GHS006 [RAEng] para 3.1 Back
99
Q109 Back
100
GHS015 [HM Government] para 28 Back
101
GHS015 [HM Government] para 40 Back
102
GHS015 [HM Government] para 39 Back
103
Q186 Back
104
GHS002 [ITS UK] para 2.3; Q8 [Ms Day] Back
105
Q234 [Sir Jeremy Heywood]; Q242 [Minister] Back
106
GHS002 [ITS UK] para 2.3; Q234 [Sir Jeremy Heywood] Back
107
Q46 Back
108
Q56 Back
109
Three deputy departmental CSAs are included in the community
for the emerging technologies work strand. See GHS022 [HM Government
supplementary]. Back
110
GHS019 [HM Government] Back
111
Q213 Back
112
Q242 Back
113
Q242 Back
114
Q86 Back
115
Q109 Back
116
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning,
January 2013, para 12 Back
117
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning,
January 2013, para 10 Back
118
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning,
January 2013, para 10; Q180 [Sir Mark] Back
119
Government Office for Science, "About us", accessed
March 2014 Back
120
Science and Technology Committee, Seventh Report of Session 2005-06,
Scientific advice, risk and evidence based policy making,
HC900-I, para 24 Back
121
Science and Technology Committee, Seventh Report of Session 2005-06,
Scientific advice, risk and evidence based policy making,
HC900-I, para 19 Back
122
Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee, Fourth
Report of Session 2008-09, Engineering: turning ideas into
reality, HC50-I, para 313 Back
123
Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee, Fourth
Report of Session 2008-09, Engineering: turning ideas into
reality, HC50-I, para 312 Back
124
Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee, Eighth
Report of Session 2008-09, Putting science and engineering
at the heart of Government policy, HC168-I, para 37 Back
125
Science and Technology Committee, First Special Report of Session
2006-07, Scientific Advice, Risk and Evidence Based Policy
Making: Government Response to the Committee's Seventh Report
of Session 2005-06, HC307, para 11 Back
126
Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee, Fifth
Special Report of Session 2008-09 , Engineering: turning ideas
into reality: Government Response to the Committee's Fourth Report
of Session 2008-09, HC759 Back
127
Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee, Fifth
Special Report of Session 2008-09 , Engineering: turning ideas
into reality: Government Response to the Committee's Fourth Report
of Session 2008-09, HC759 Back
128
Science and Technology Committee, Ninth Special Report of Session
2008-09, Putting Science and Engineering at the Heart of Government
Policy: Government Response to the Innovation, Universities, Science
and Skills Committee's Eighth Report of Session 2008-09, HC1036,
para 3 Back
129
Oral evidence taken before the Liaison Committee on 18 November
2010, HC 608-i (2010-2011), Q93 Back
130
Oral evidence taken before the Science and Technology Committee
on 11 March 2013, HC 1052-I (2012-2013), Q31-32 Back
131
Oral evidence taken before the Science and Technology Committee
on 24 October 2012, HC 666-i (2012-2013), Q3 Back
132
Oral evidence taken before the Science and Technology Committee
on 24 April 2013, HC 1052-ii (2012-2013), Q39 Back
133
Oral evidence taken before the Science and Technology Committee
on 4 December 2013, HC 847 (2012-2013), Q16 Back
134
Q74 Back
135
Q29 Back
136
Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report of Session
2006-07, Governing the Future, HC123-1 , para 82 Back
137
GHS002 [ITS UK] para 1.3; GHS004 [University of Oxford] para
22 Back
138
GHS004 [University of Oxford] para 22 Back
139
GHS002 [ITS UK] para 1.3 Back
140
See, for example, Q168 [Walport] Back
141
GHS008 [IET] para 1.1 Back
142
GHS002 [ITS UK] para 1.3 Back
143
GHS002 [ITS UK] para 1.3 Back
144
Q198 Back
145
Q236 Back
146
Q237 Back
147
Q237 Back
148
Q199 Back
149
Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report of Session
2006-07, Governing the Future, HC123-1, para 79 Back
150
Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report of Session
2006-07, Governing the Future, HC123-1, para 79 Back
151
GHS006 [RAEng] para 3.3 Back
152
Q82 Back
153
Q14 Back
154
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning,
January 2013, para 7e Back
155
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning,
January 2013, para 12i and figure Back
156
GHS015 [HM Government] para 3 Back
157
Q192 Back
158
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning,
January 2013, para 5 Back
159
Q98 [Ms Bland]; Nesta, Quantitative analysis of technology
futures: part 1, May 2013 Back
160
See Q35 and Q53 [Professor Buchanan] Back
161
Q52 [Dr Thomas] Back
162
Q94-95 Back
163
Q58 Back
164
GHS009 [Royal Society]; GHS014 [Concatenation Science Communication]
para 5 Back
165
GHS008 [IET] para 3.3 Back
166
Q214 Back
167
Q212 Back
168
Q241 Back
169
Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, "POST",
accessed March 2014 Back
170
Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, "POST Board",
accessed March 2014 Back
171
Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report of Session
2006-07, Governing the Future, HC123-1, para 101 Back
172
Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report of Session
2006-07, Governing the Future, HC123-1, para 103 Back
173
Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report of Session
2006-07, Governing the Future, HC123-1, para 101-103 Back
174
Standing orders of the House of Commons: Public Business 2013,
Standing Order 152(1) Back
175
Science and Technology Committee, "Antimicrobial resistance",
accessed March 2014 Back
176
Science and Technology Committee, "Climate: public understanding
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177
Science and Technology Committee, "Scientific advice and
evidence in emergencies", accessed March 2014 Back
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