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The future of Iraq as a nation state is in question as never before. If its three main communities cannot find an effective formula for political cohabitation then the country may face partition (whether formal or otherwise) with unpredictable consequences for the wider region. Indeed, with ISIL terrorists occupying the west and centre of the country, it may be more accurate to say that Iraq is already broken, and that the question now is whether it can yet be stitched back into a functioning whole. The clock is ticking.
Key to Iraq's future will be the policies and actions of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The Kurdistan Region is the best governed—and least dysfunctional—part of Iraq, with a developing democratic culture and relatively stable economy. It is professionally and effectively defended by its national guard, the Peshmerga, and is a haven of tolerance in a wider region where extremism and instability are on the rise. It has responded with great generosity to the sudden influx of hundreds of thousands of displaced Iraqis and Syrians, of different ethnicities and religions, seeking sanctuary there. There can be no solution to Iraq's current troubles unless the governments in Baghdad and in Erbil (the Region's capital) work together to overcome mutual suspicion and acrimony. We believe that there is a role for the UK Foreign Office, as a friend and supporter of both administrations, and with its long history of engagement in Iraq, to try quietly to help mend fences, although we have doubts as to whether the UK currently has the depth of diplomatic resources in Iraq that it would need to carry out this role fully.
The qualities that make the Kurdistan Region vital for Iraq's future also make it a key ally for the UK Government. It should respond positively to the KRG's invitation to be its "partner of choice" on trade, education and cultural exchange as well as defence and intelligence matters, mindful that if it does not, the KRG may feel compelled to deepen links with other powers who may not share our values. The UK Government should not allow the KRG's squabbles with the federal government in Iraq or question marks over its future constitutional status to stand in the way of deepening an already strong and trusting partnership. This requires a strengthening of the UK's diplomatic resources in the Region, as the Foreign Office appears to recognise. Its promise that it will upgrade its consular premises in Erbil is welcome, but it is time to see some progress made. Current consular arrangements are not adequate for the UK: a permanent Security Council member seeking to play a lead role in efforts to resolve the Iraqi and Syrian crises. We would also like to see progress in building stronger government-to-government links, to satisfy the KRG's enthusiasm for UK mentoring in matters such as public service reform and developing a human rights culture; in developing direct air links between the UK and Erbil; and (in the expectation that current security concerns will ultimately be overcome) in encouraging greater trade and business engagement between the UK and the Region.
We agree with the UK Government that for the time being it is far better that Arabs and Kurds in Iraq seeks to be strong and united, to defeat the common enemy of ISIL. It is also rational to be concerned about the possible consequences of Iraq's break-up. But the Kurdistan Region's desire for increased self-governance, or even independence, is itself rational, given its economic potential and demonstrable capacity for effective self-governance; and it is also understandable, given its recent history. We do not judge that independence is imminent, but it is a medium-term possibility, for which the UK Government should be prepared. Much will depend on the success of the KRG's export strategy for hydrocarbons, which the KRG clearly sees as a route to economic self-sufficiency, but which is highly dependent on global crude prices and on a "grand bargain" reached with the Turkish government; a state which (like another powerful neighbour, Iran) is not supportive of independence for the Kurdistan Region. It is for the Iraqi people to decide their future, but it appears to us that a looser federal model, permitting greater self-governance by its diverse mosaic of communities, offers best hope for Iraq remaining united and sovereign. Highly centralised rule under a "strongman" in Baghdad has not worked in Iraq's near-century of existence and never will. If the Kurdistan Region is to become independent, it should be with the consent of the rest of Iraq. But the UK and its international partners should stand ready to help ensure that any clear expression of will in favour of independence, and on reasonable terms, is accepted and respected. For the sake of wider energy security, it is also in the UK's interests that the Kurdistan Region, along with the rest of Iraq, should have a vibrant oil and gas export industry.
We strongly support the UK Government's decision to join the informal military coalition against ISIL in August, following appalling acts of violent persecution against innocent and defenceless people that called to mind the worst atrocities of the 20th century. The KRG has welcomed the arms, equipment, intelligence and training the UK and others have provided to the Peshmerga, but has called for this assistance to be increased, and in particular for more heavy weaponry. These pleas are understandable, but should be balanced carefully against the delicate constitutional situation in Iraq, as well as the continuing existence of political factionalism within the Peshmerga. We believe that the UK and its EU and NATO allies should be prepared to progressively increase their assistance (in the form of arms, military training and intelligence), provided this is linked to clear evidence of Peshmerga reform and of effective coordination between the Peshmerga and other officially recognised military forces taking on ISIL.
It is not for this report to comment in depth on UK policy on Iraq and Syria, but it is self-evident that there can be no real peace in the Kurdistan Region for as long as ISIL masses threateningly on its doorstep. With the assistance of allied aircraft, the Peshmerga have repulsed ISIL from the gates of Erbil and won back some territory from the terrorists in Iraq and Syria, but they require reliable partners on the ground if ISIL are to be comprehensively degraded. Whilst cognisant of FCO concerns about possible links to terrorism, we invite the UK Government to at least justify its policy of not recognising as a formal opposition movement the Syrian-Kurdish militias that are at the front line of resistance to the terrorists in the north and north-east of the country, but which it is currently the UK's policy not to assist.
In Baghdad, the new administration of Haider al-Abadi has made a promising start, following the disastrous rule of his predecessor Nouri al-Maliki; but the task of achieving national reconciliation, re-engaging grassroots Sunnis with discredited national institutions, and building a truly national defence force is enormous and difficult. Equally challenging will be mobilising Shia militias to defend Iraq from ISIL without exacerbating sectarian tensions. Success is not guaranteed: the UK and its allies should do all they reasonably can to assist but should be quietly assessing the need for a "Plan B" should the federal government run into difficulties.
Much has changed in the Kurdistan Region since, in February 2014, we launched the inquiry that led to this report; mainly for the worse. Nevertheless, in the long term, the Kurdistan Region's prospects remain bright, provided that the KRG's energy export policy bears fruit; that corrupt practices and nepotism are not allowed to become entrenched in the economy and political system; that respect for human rights continues to develop; and that the harvest of a growing economy is shared out equitably. The people and government of the Kurdistan Region would warmly welcome the UK's help along its path towards increased democracy, economic stability, pluralism and tolerance in a wider environment where those qualities are needed now more than ever.
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