6 Forecasting the level of demand
78. HMPO receives around 5.5 million passport applications
each year. In 2014, by 9 July, 4.2 million applications had been
received. In each of the four months, March to June 2014, the
total number of applications received exceeded that of the highest
monthly total in any of the three preceding years.[81]
HM Passport Office models demand in order to try to predict future
demand. In 2012-13, demand was generally about 3% below the predicted
level.[82] In 2014, however,
Mr Pugh told us that demand had been "completely out of line
with the forecast, which [had] been reliable over previous years
for many years" and wondered whether this might be due to
some "significant permanent demographic shift in the population
of [HMPO's] customers".[83]
He emphasised that in previous years, the model had been accurate
to within 3-4%, or at most 7-8% in any given month, and suggested
that the current surge in demand was probably more likely to be
to do with changing annual patterns of demand over the year, rather
than increasing annual demand.[84]
The Home Secretary was somewhat more direct in her assessment:
I should emphasise that it is clear that HMPO's
modelling failed, and we will need to address that.[85]
79. HM Passport Office could take
a more proactive approach to managing demand by sending out reminders
to passport holders in the months before their passport is due
to expire, the invention of email making this an easy process.
Where the holder's passport will expire during the peak late spring
/ early summer demand period, they might be offered a small reduction
in the application fee to submit their application a few months
earlier. This could help smooth out the level of demand over the
year, and prevent a recurrence of this year's problems.
80.
81 Q 226-232 Back
82
Identity and Passport Service, Annual Report and Accounts 2012-2013,
HC 275, p8 Back
83
Q 120-121 and 157 Back
84
Q 232-239 Back
85
HC Deb, 18 June 2014, col 1143 Back
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