2 A single immigration target
13. In the lead up to the 2010 General Election,
Rt Hon David Cameron MP, then Leader of the Opposition, said "We
would like to see net immigration in the tens of thousands rather
than the hundreds of thousands". The Prime Minister compared
recent levels of migration to the lower levels seen in the 1990s.[20]
The Coalition Agreement of 2010 included the following:
The Government believes that immigration has
enriched our culture and strengthened our economy, but that it
must be controlled so that people have confidence in the system.
We also recognise that to ensure cohesion and protect our public
services, we need to introduce a cap on immigration and reduce
the number of non-EU immigrants.[21]
14. On 23 November 2010, Rt Hon Theresa May, Home
Secretary, made a statement to the House on proposals to limit
immigration, in which she said, "We aim to reduce net migration
from the hundreds of thousands, back down to the tens of thousands."[22]
In April 2011, the Prime Minister said that he had:
Made a clear commitment to the British people
that we would aim to reduce net migration to the levels we saw
in the 1980s and 1990s. Now we are in government, we are on track
to meet that aim.[23]
The reference to the target of reducing net migration
from the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands has been
repeated often, for example by James Brokenshire in his speech
to Demos in March 2014,[24]
and to this Committee on 1 April 2014.[25]
PROGRESS IN REDUCING NET MIGRATION
15. In 1997, net migration was 48,000. The chart
below shows that net migration has not been below 140,000 in each
year since. Reducing net migration is helped by increasing emigration.
Emigration from the UK fell from its peak of 427,000 in 2008 to
321,000 in 2012, and has held steady at around 320,000 since.
However, since 2012, immigration has increased each year, and
in each quarter of 2014. In Q2 2014, net migration stood at 260,000.[26]
The biggest annual fall in net migration since 1992 was 51,000
between 2010 and 2011. The next set of quarterly migration statistics,
for Q4 2014, will be published at the end of March 2015, days
before Parliament is dissolved.
Total immigration, emigration and net migration
since 1991
Source: ONS Long-Term International Migration
estimates, ONS Long-Term International Migration Estimates,
2 series (LTIM calendar year)
16. When the Prime Minister spoke in April 2011,
he pointed out that in the year up to June 2010, net migration
from EU nationals was just 27,000, while net migration from nationals
of countries outside the EU to the UK totalled 198,000. More than
one million people had arrived in the UK after 2004 when the A8
countries joined, but the Prime Minister said transitional controls
would be put in place for any new countries joining the EU. He
said "When it comes to immigration to our country, it's the
numbers from outside the EU that really matter."[27]
The majority of the Government's policies on reducing immigration
have focussed on reducing the numbers coming from outside the
EU: by being more selective about who comes on a work visa, by
reducing the number of student visas, addressing family visas
such as sham marriages, and by breaking the link between temporary
visas for work or study and permanent settlement.[28]
The two charts below show the different trends in non-EU migration
and EU migration. The non-EU migration chart clearly shows the
reduction in non-EU net migration since 2010, in fact non-EU immigration
fell by about 78,000 between 2010 and 2013, and non-EU net migration
has fallen by near one third.
Total immigration, emigration and net migration
for non-EU migrants since 1991
Source: ONS Long-Term International
Migration Estimates, 2 series (LTIM calendar year)
17. The second chart show shows EU emigration falling
after 2008, while EU immigration has levelled, dipped, and then,
from 2012, increased. EU net migration has increased every year
since 2009.
Total immigration, emigration and net migration
for EU migrants since 1991
Source: ONS Long-Term International
Migration Estimates, 2 series (LTIM calendar year)
18. The Government has accepted that reaching the
target is becoming more difficult. By 18 November 2014, James
Brokenshire described it as an "objective" that is "much
more challenging", because of the increase in net migration
from the EU.[29] He confirmed
that the Government's focus "absolutely remains on reducing
migration" to the level pre-1998.[30]
On 10 November, the Home Secretary described the aim to reduce
net migration to the tens of thousands as a "comment".[31]
By 23 November, the Home Secretary told the BBC it was "unlikely"
that the target would be met.[32]
THE VALUE OF A SINGLE TARGET FOR
NET MIGRATION
19. There are lessons to be learned from the experience
of setting a single target for net migration. The paper, Cutting
Net Migration to the Tens of Thousands: What exactly does that
mean?[33] from the
Migration Research Unit at University College London, looked at
the implication of managing migration through a single, numerical
target and came to four conclusions:
· First,
a focus on a single publicised target can become the priority
over other considerations that could be argued are in the national
interest, for example attracting post-graduate students who wish
to study science, technology, engineering and maths.
· Second, net
migration is only partly determined by the policies of the UK
government. The economic performance of southern European countries
such as Spain has an effect on the number of people in Spain who
might immigrate to the UK, and on the number of people in the
UK who might wish to emigrate to Spain.
· Third, government
policies might have different and conflicting aims. For example,
the NHS needs skilled staff but more people can add pressure on
NHS services.
· Fourth, a single
target figure conveys an image of immigrants as an undesirable
mass to be reduced regardless of the consequences. It does not
allow for the nuance of debate about costs and benefits of different
migrant flows.
20. And a recent report by British Future, How
to talk about immigration? said:
Trust is undermined when the government sets
tough targets and fails to meet them. But that isn't a reason
to abandon targets altogether. Targets can increase trust if they
set out what the government intends to do, offering a tangible
measure by which it can be held to account by the public.
The report then sets out three tests that any target
should meet in order to rebuild trust:
It should only focus on the migration that is
within the government's power to control; it should be concerned
with migration that is in our interest to control […]; and
it should be set at a level that can actually be met.[34]
21. The Government made a clear commitment to
reduce net migration from the hundreds of thousands to the tens
of thousands. The Government has admitted it is unlikely that
the target will be met before the General Election. We agree.
The commitment did not make a distinction between EU and non-EU
migration, nor allow for emigration falling. Ministers argued
that the government did not anticipate either an increase in EU
immigration or a fall in emigration. This is not a sufficient
explanation for its failure to meet the target, but serves to
highlight the difficulty in setting a single headline target that
relied upon factors that could not be controlled. No Government
of whatever political composition can control the number of people
who voluntarily leave the country. This raises questions about
future immigration policy. An arbitrary target set by ministers,
however well intentioned, only serves to reduce public confidence
in the ability of any Government to deliver a future pledge on
immigration.
22. Rapid expansion of the country's total population
can have far-reaching consequences, both positive and negative,
across many aspects of national life. We believe that the Government
should continue to be clear about its aspirations for a desirable
level of net migration. However, a single figure target is too
blunt an instrument for this purpose. The Government also needs
to be clear about which factors are and are not within its control,
and about which migration flows it wishes to contain, and which
it wishes to encourage.
20 David Cameron: net immigration will be capped at tens of thousands,
Daily Telegraph, 10 January 2010 Back
21
Coalition Agreement, 2010 Back
22
HC Deb 23 November 2010, col 169. Back
23
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13083781 Back
24
www.demos.co.uk/files/JamesBrokenshireSpeechtoDemos.pdf Back
25
The work of the Immigration Directorates (October-December 2013),
HC 1164 (2013-14), Q 64, 1 April 2014 Back
26
ONS Migration Statistics, Quarterly Report, November 2014, 27
November 2014 Back
27
In full: David Cameron immigration speech, 14 April 2011 Back
28
Theresa May speech on Immigration, 5 November 2010 Back
29
Q 105 Back
30
Q 107 Back
31
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29991200 Back
32
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30167160 Back
33
Professor Salt and Dr Dobson, Migration research Unit, UCL, Cutting Net Migration to the Tens of Thousands: What exactly does that mean?
November 2013 Back
34
British Future, How to talk about immigration, 2014 Back
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