Appendix 2: UK Statistics Authority Response
Letter from Sir Andrew Dilnot,
Chair, UK Statistics Authority, to Bernard Jenkin MP, Chair of
PASC, dated 21 July 2014
Options for the future of the census
The Office for National Statistics has not provided
detailed information about what data, other than a head count,
could be harvested from the various administrative sources. We
recommend that the Office for National Statistics lists all the
public and quasi-public sources that could be tapped for data,
the data that could be forthcoming from them and the administrative,
technical and legal barriers to the use of, and ultimately linking
of, that data. (Paragraph
21)
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published
a research paper in October 2013, setting out ONS's initial assessment
of a broad range of public authority administrative data sources.[1]
This paper indicated that several sources could potentially provide
information for the purposes of producing official statistics
on the characteristics of the population. ONS believes that this
assessment has helped to identify priority sources that will be
of future interest.
ONS also published four case studies in May 2014
which reviewed the potential for using administrative data for
some key topics: ethnicity, household estimates, unemployment
and income.[2] This work
indicated the potential in combining administrative and survey
data to provide some of this information. ONS's ongoing research
programme will explore this potential further.
The use of an address register in 2011 was a very
good example of using administrative records to enhance the accuracy
of population statistics. Other administrative data was also apparently
used. We recommend the Office for National Statistics sets out
what data it used in 2011, the impact it had on the resulting
estimates, the lessons learnt from this experience and how such
additional sources can be used more widely and effectively. (Paragraph
26)
The 2011 Census population estimates have been subject
to a rigorous quality assurance process. As a part of this process
a series of checks have been carried out that involved comparing
census data to a range of other data sources, including administrative
data. Examples of the use of administrative data in the quality
assurance process include:
· Council
Tax data (aggregated to local area geographies, such as lower
super output area, LSOA) which included totals of properties that
were required to pay Council Tax and those that were exempt. This
information was particularly helpful to quality assure household
estimates of the resident population, which excludes most properties
exempt from the payment of Council Tax, and to identify individual
outlier cases.
· NHS patient
register data were also used extensively in 2011 Census quality
assurance processes, for example reviewing the number of patient
records at particular addresses so as to resolve any discrepancies
between the patient register and Census returns for individual
households.
Further information about the administrative sources
used for the 2011 Census quality assurance process have been published
in various papers available on the ONS website.[3]
ONS's research programme is exploring additional
topic areas where administrative data could supplement data from
future population censuses, while enhancing the accuracy of population
statistics. These include improving the efficiency of census-taking
by targeting resources towards non-responders, imputing for missing
data, improving address register information about communal establishments,
and using other available data sources to estimate occupancy and
vacant households.
Population estimates are of fundamental importance
to the statistical system, policy makers and society more widely,
but the days of the traditional, ten-yearly, paper-based census
are numbered. The Government has a wealth of detailed administrative
data which is currently unexploited and which could provide a
rich seam of information to improve the nation's knowledge of
its population and boost the quality of public services. Data
from administrative sources can be richer, broader, cheaper and
timelier than the equivalent from a traditional census; it can
be made available far more frequently than every ten years. The
National Statistician has recently recommended that there should
be a census in 2021, albeit conducted where possible online, and
that there should be greater use of administrative data and surveys.
It is too soon to decide whether to scrap the census. We believe
that it is right to have a census in 2021; as insufficient effort
has been made in recent years, the alternative options for the
collection of population statistics have not been adequately tested
and plans are not sufficiently advanced to provide a proper replacement,
given the importance of the resulting data. (Paragraph 27)
Considerable effort been made in recent years to
explore alternative options for the collection of population statistics.
ONS has undertaken extensive research to identify and evaluate
the future options for taking a census, and these reports are
available on the ONS website.[4]
This work was commended by the independent review of methodology
led by Professor Chris Skinner, and the review report included
positive observations about the innovative work undertaken by
ONS in the evaluation and matching of administrative sources.
The review report also acknowledged that ONS has a strong understanding
of the methodological challenges and risks in this area.[5]
The Statistics Authority believes that the decision
to move to a different system for producing population statistics
is not one to be taken lightly. The National Statistician's recommendation
to the Authority on the future provision of population statistics
in England and Wales, published on 27 March 2014, offers a springboard
to the greater use of administrative data and annual surveys in
future.[6] The Authority
welcomes the Government's recent endorsement of our recommendations
set out in a letter from the Minister for the Cabinet Office.[7]
ONS will only be able to make greater use of data
from administrative sources where it has the legal authority to
do so. Although progress has been made using powers in the Statistics
and Registration Service Act 2007, further legislation may
help to maximise the benefits of future data sharing. ONS is actively
engaged with the Cabinet Office and other government departments
in an open policy making process to explore possibilities in this
area, including the wider public acceptability of future data
sharing legislation.
However, in order to get the most use out of the
information already held by the Government, for the purposes of
high quality and granular population statistics, and before we
can be sure that there can be, eventually, a full and proper replacement
for the traditional census, much more work must be done. We are
concerned that the work on the future of the census has been done
in isolation. (Paragraph 28)
Work on the future of the census has not been undertaken
in isolation. ONS encouraged and used feedback from a wide range
of stakeholders and users, including academics, international
colleagues, and privacy groups, which culminated in a three-month
public consultation. ONS engaged with stakeholders and the wider
user community through numerous meetings and public events. In
excess of 700 responses to the consultation were received. As
the National Statistician's recommendations set out, we agree
that there is more work to be done before a full and proper replacement
for the traditional census can be made. ONS's future research
programme will reflect this.
We recommend that the Office for National Statistics,
under strong leadership from the board of the UK Statistics Authority,
now scope and set out a more ambitious vision for the creative
and full use of administrative data to provide rich and valuable
population statistics. The Office for National Statistics should
explain how the outputs will be different if administrative data
were to be used in place of much of the census, explaining clearly
the advantages and disadvantages. (Paragraph 29)
ONS is finalising a research work plan for the next
three years, and this will be published later this year. This
research plan will include an evaluation of how administrative
sources can be used to supplement and enhance census data. The
quality of such outputs will need to be evaluated before it is
possible precisely to define what future statistical outputs might
look like.
As noted above, ONS continues actively to engage
with the Cabinet Office and other government departments in exploring
the possibilities for improving access to the administrative data
held by government for the purposes of producing official statistics,
and the legislative requirements that might be necessary to enable
this.
ONS has established an administrative data programme
to increase the use and re-use of administrative data, building
capacity and capability by pulling together and developing, relevant
work strands on administrative data. This will enable progress
towards the strategic aim of ONS being at the forefront of integrating
and exploiting data from multiple sources, improving quality,
reducing respondent burden and survey costs, delivering efficiency
and enabling the development of new statistical products.
ONS's administrative data programme is also incorporating
ONS's contribution to the Administrative Data Research Network.
The Administrative Data Research Network (ADRN) has been established
as a UK-wide partnership between universities, government departments
and agencies, funders, and the wider research community to help
accredited researchers carry out social and economic research
on de-identified administrative data.
As recommended in the Administrative Data Task Force
Report published in December 2012[8],
the UK Statistics Authority is the reporting body to the UK Parliament
for the ADRN and seeks assurance for the robust performance and
governance of the Network from the ADRN Board which has been established
for this purpose, under the chairmanship of Professor David Hand,
a non-executive member of the UK Statistics Authority Board. The
objectives of the ADRN Board are to: (i) promote and safeguard
the linkage of administrative data for research and statistical
purposes that serves the public good; and (ii) provide assurance
to Parliament and the public, through the Board of the UK Statistics
Authority, about the achievements of the Network.[9]
In February 2014, the Authority launched a programme
of work on the use of administrative data in the production of
official statistics under the direction of the Authority's Head
of Assessment. The programme is looking at how these data are
currently being audited - by producers of statistics or by other
experts - and ways in which the audit arrangements can be improved
to enhance public confidence in the derived statistics. The programme
is also looking at the issues that arise when official statistics
become the basis of performance targets at an individual or organisational
level. In addition, the Authority will develop guidance on the
high-level principles that should apply to the audit of administrative
data. Taken together, this programme will re-emphasise the importance
the Authority attaches to appropriate quality assurance for maintaining
and enhancing public trust in official statistics.[10]
Public concerns about data sharing
The Cabinet Office and the Office for National
Statistics must make every effort to publicise the benefits of
greater sharing of administrative data within Government and to
the wider world, in order to realise the considerable benefits
of using administrative data for policy-making, policy understanding
and efficiency, and of course for the production of population
statistics. The Government should use the lessons learnt from
the problems with the "care.data" rollout to embark
upon a public information campaign about the future of the census
in order to raise understanding of the benefits of sharing administrative
data, give information about the safeguards which will be in place
to protect people's personal information and privacy, in order
to smooth the way for its greater use. (Paragraph 34)
The Statistics Authority agrees that the benefits
of greater sharing of administrative data within Government are
substantial. The Authority and ONS will continue to make the case
for improving current data sharing arrangements. As noted above,
ONS is working with the Cabinet Office and other government departments
to make the case for improving access to the administrative data
held by Government for statistical purposes, including plans for
wider public consultation and communication activities in this
area, and to develop proposals to deliver the necessary changes
while providing public reassurance on privacy and data security.
ONS published a paper in July 2013 setting out the
privacy and security safeguards that ONS intends to put in place
throughout the research phase of the Beyond 2011 Programme.[11]
In its response to ONS's public consultation on the future of
population statistics in England and Wales, the Information Commissioner's
Office noted that they recognised that ONS has a strong track
record of protecting the personal data from previous censuses,
and that the Information Commissioner has confidence in ONS's
approach to data protection as demonstrated by previous census
operations.
1 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/who-ons-are/programmes-and-projects/beyond-2011/reports-and-publications/beyond-2011-producing-socio-demographic-statistics-2.pdf Back
2
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/who-ons-are/programmes-and-projects/beyond-2011/reports-and-publications/methods-and-policies-reports/beyond-2011--statistical-research-update.pdf Back
3
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/the-2011-census/processing-the-information/data-quality-assurance/overview-of-administrative-comparator-data-used-in-2011-census-quality-assurance.pdf;
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/census-data/2011-census-data/2011-first-release/first-release--quality-assurance-and-methodology-papers/quality-assurance-of-census-population-estimates.pdf;
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/the-2011-census/processing-the-information/statistical-methodology/predicting-patterns-of-household-non-response-in-the-2011-census.pdf Back
4
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/who-ons-are/programmes-and-projects/beyond-2011/reports-and-publications/index.html Back
5
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/who-ons-are/programmes-and-projects/beyond-2011/reports-and-publications/methods-and-policies-reports/beyond-2011--independent-review-of-methodology.pdf Back
6
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/who-ons-are/programmes-and-projects/beyond-2011/beyond-2011-report-on-autumn-2013-consultation--and-recommendations/national-statisticians-recommendation.pdf Back
7
http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/correspondence/index.html Back
8
http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/national-statistician/administrative-data-research-network/administrative-data-task-force-report---december-2012.pdf Back
9
For further information about the ADRN Board, see http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/national-statistician/administrative-data-research-network/index.html
Back
10
http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/monitoring/administrative-data-and-official-statistics/index.html
Back
11
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/who-ons-are/programmes-and-projects/beyond-2011/reports-and-publications/beyond-2011-safeguarding-data-for-research-our-policy--m10-.pdf Back
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