3 Current Government capacity
Who
does what
49. A large number of high quality bodies and processes
inside and outside Government influence thinking ahead and planning
for known trends and unknown shocks. These include key activities
such as public spending reviews which the Treasury carries out.
It also publishes the Whole of Government Accounts. The Cabinet
Office has oversight of some of the activities covered in this
chapter, though they do not set out fully in their written evidence
who does what.[111]
We discuss:
· The
National Risk Register;
· The
Cabinet Office horizon scanning programme team;
· The
Government Office for Science;
· Strategic
Defence and Security Reviews;
· The
Joint Intelligence Committee;
· The
Civil Contingencies Secretariat;
· The
National Security Council;
· The
Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre;
· Other
government departments and networks;
· Public
bodies and the wider public sector, including Parliament;
· Spending
reviews; and
· Whole
of Government Accounts.
NATIONAL RISK REGISTER
50. The Government's National Risk Register for Civil
Emergencies, last published in July 2013, takes likelihood and
impact into account, and considers the highest priority risks
to be pandemic influenza, coastal flooding, catastrophic terrorist
attacks, and severe volcanic eruptions abroad.[112]
51. Professor Dame Sally Davies explained to us how
work to coordinate and check the risk register is carried out.
She said that at least once a year, the chief scientific advisers
sit down to look at and cross-check the risks. She explained that
some risks, such as anti-microbial resistance, appear on more
than one department's risk register.[113]
Chief Scientific Advisers are working with the Civil Contingencies
Secretariat to add anti-microbial resistance to the national risk
register.[114]
52. The Government Chief Scientific Adviser was not
consulted on the first National Risk Assessment, leaving the UK
unprepared for the threat that materialised in 2010 over Icelandic
volcanic ash, at substantial cost to the aviation industry, travellers
and the economy.[115]
Scientific advice was subsequently included in the development
of the register.[116]
CABINET OFFICE HORIZON SCANNING
PROGRAMME TEAM
53. Since March 2014 a small joint Cabinet Office
and Government Office for Science team of about five members of
staff has run the Government's horizon scanning programme, reporting
to Jon Day, Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee, and
Sir Mark Walport, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser. The
Cabinet Secretary acts as the 'senior champion' for horizon scanning.[117]
The programme is overseen by the Minister for Government Policy,
the Rt Hon Oliver Letwin MP, "who takes a close interest
in the programme and actively engages with it."[118]
54. The unit acts as a centre of expertise for the
rest of Government, and coordinates meetings which bring together
civil servants from across Government and others to think ahead
on particular themes and topics, for example, on emerging economies.
The team works with the Civil Service Policy Profession to "expose
and embed horizon scanning tools and techniques", tools such
as a 'Futures Toolkit'.[119]
Though it aims to be as transparent as possible, not all its papers
can be published, Oliver Letwin MP wrote.[120]
55. Dr Claire Craig, Director of the Government Office
for Science, has said that "it's easier to do horizon scanning
than it is to get the people you want to listen to it, to listen
to it".[121] Professor
Michael Clarke of the Royal United Services Institute expressed
frustration to us that government horizon scanning does not reach
as far as policy.[122]
As Jon Day's review of government horizon scanning found, it is
rare for horizon scanning products to include policy implications
or an analysis of how the information presented could be used
to inform decision making.[123]
The Minister for Government Policy acknowledged the need for greater
take-up of horizon scanning: "rather than putting that in
some little unit somewhere, [
] we need to take it much furtherwhat
I believe in the jargon is called mainstreaming; i.e. putting
this in the hands of the people who are really most important
around Whitehall."[124]
Jon Day explained to us that horizon scanning has to "battle
with the current agenda" and "there is not always a
mechanism to get this information to Ministers."[125]
56. No data is held on the academic backgrounds of
civil servants involved in horizon scanning.[126]
Jon Day told us his impression and experience was that they are
no more or less short-termist than other civil servants.[127]
Written evidence by the Academy of Social Sciences states that
there is no independent evidence about the effectiveness or value
of Whitehall horizon scanning.[128]
The equivalent capacity in the Canadian federal Government is
organised somewhat differently (see Box 2).
Box 2: An example of central government horizon
scanning capacity: Policy Horizons Canada
Policy Horizons Canada was set up by Janice Charette, the Clerk of the Privy Council, (Canadian equivalent to Cabinet Secretary) in 2011. This addressed the need for Deputy Ministers (equivalent to Permanent Secretaries) to be exposed to long-term thinking, fresh ideas and challenge. The organisation employs around 25 staff and relies on a large number of external experts. It is funded by the Department for Employment and Social Development but is governed by a committee made up of Deputy Ministers from across the Canadian federal Government. It produces outputs, largely unpublished, intended to inform and challenge the whole of Government. Its aim as the centre of foresight is not to build foresight units within departments, but to build capacity for long-term thinking among public servants. A number of officials in senior roles across the Canadian federal government have spent a period within Policy Horizons Canada, and therefore comprise the 'community of strategists' we called on the UK Government to develop in our report, Who Does UK National Strategy?[129]
|
GOVERNMENT OFFICE FOR SCIENCE
57. The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills houses
the Government Office for Science, led by the Government's Chief
Scientific Adviser, Sir Mark Walport.[130]
Its 'Foresight' unit of about 15 staff, described as "long-established
and much lauded" by the Science and Technology Select Committee,
carries out in-depth studies "looking ahead 10-100 years
on topics of national importance" and publishes reports,
for example, on the future of manufacturing.[131]
Written evidence from the Cabinet Office stated that GO-Science,
as it is known:
Ensures that government policies and decisions are informed
by the best scientific evidence and strategic long-term thinking.
Foresight projects use the latest scientific evidence and futures
analysis to address complex issues and provide strategic options
to inform decisions that need to be taken now, and over the longer
term.[132]
The Science and Technology Select Committee recommended in May
2014 that GO-Science should be moved into the Cabinet Office,
to increase its cross-department influence.[133]
STRATEGIC DEFENCE AND SECURITY REVIEWS
58. The Government published the outcome of the Strategic Defence
and Security Review, Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty,
in October 2010.[134]
Previous reviews covered only defence, and the expansion to also
cover security in 2010 was welcomed by the Defence Select Committee.[135]
However, the Committee concluded there was a risk that immediate
or short-term security issues and threats might dominate to the
exclusion of longer-term defence assessments.[136]
The review decided to fit two aircraft carriers to allow short
take offs and vertical landing; shortly afterwards, in 2012, the
decision was reversed. Sir Peter Luff MP, a former Defence Minister,
has suggested that the 2010 decision was partly the result of
rushed and inaccurate costing to accommodate a new Secretary of
State's preferences.[137]
59. The Defence Select Committee concluded in a 2012
Report that the review's decision to cancel the maritime patrol
aircraft ('Nimrod') programme, a decision that was primarily financially
driven, has weakened the UK's ability to undertake the military
tasks envisaged by the review.[138]
They were unconvinced that the Armed Forces could manage this
capability gap within existing resources.[139]
The Secretary of State for Defence, the Rt Hon Michael Fallon
MP, has acknowledged weaknesses in the review, saying that "some
things were not foreseen: the Arab spring, for example, the resurgence
of Russia, the annexation of the Crimea and the interference in
eastern Ukraine."[140]
However, Oliver Letwin MP defended the 2010 review, telling us
the conclusions it reached had "pretty well stood the test
of time".[141]
60. The Institute for Government has identified rushed
post-election spending reviews as a problem: "the 2010 spending
review provided for aircraft carriers but not the planes to go
with them, because it didn't allow time to complete a serious
defence and security review".[142]
The majority of work on the review, it has been claimed, was conducted
over a six-week period in summer 2010 with key people unavailable
on holiday at times.[143]
However, Oliver Letwin said he was "pretty intimately involved
in the strategic defence review, and it continued throughout [summer
2010] pretty energetically".[144]
Sir Nicholas Macpherson told us that "There is a risk that,
if you try to do something that is of a scale of a strategic defence
review to meet a very early public spending timetable, something
is going to give."[145]
However, when we asked Oliver Letwin he did not have any particular
view about the time it should take to conduct the next review.[146]
JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
61. The Joint Intelligence Committee's role is to
produce "objective, cross-departmental, all sources assessments,
bringing together secret intelligence, diplomatic reporting and
open source material."[147]
It produces these assessments for current events but also looks
ahead to identify potential risks, and to provide the Government
with early warning, Cabinet Office written evidence claims.[148]
The Committee's secretariat is the Joint Intelligence Organisation,
based in the Cabinet Office (see Box 3).[149]
Box 3: Organisational chart
CIVIL CONTINGENCIES SECRETARIAT
62. Written evidence from the Cabinet Office stated
that its Civil Contingencies Secretariat is responsible for improving
the UK's ability to absorb, respond to and recover from emergencies.[150]
It is part of the wider National Security Secretariat which employs
about 200 people.[151]
The team assesses disruptive civil challenges to the UK in the
short, medium and long term.[152]
Its unpublished National Risk Assessment informs the publicly
available National Risk Register.[153]
63. The UK is well-placed geographically, not having
major fault lines, active volcanoes or an extreme climate. Perhaps
helped in part by this, the work of the Secretariat is well regarded
internationally.[154]
Dame Deirdre Hines, former Chief Medical Officer for Wales, carried
out a largely positive independent review of the UK response to
the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic. This "provided confirmation
of the value of planning and preparedness" and "demonstrated
that the four UK Governments can work together effectively and
successfully to meet such an emergency".[155]
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
64. The National Security Council is now the Cabinet
committee for collective discussion of the Government's objectives
for national security. The Cabinet Office stated that it meets
weekly and is chaired by the Prime Minister.[156]
Witnesses to our previous inquiry Who does UK National Strategy?
welcomed the establishment of the Council, but witnesses to our
previous inquiry, Strategic thinking in Government, pressed
for greater analytical support for the Council.[157]
Former Special Adviser Matt Cavanagh recommended that "the
Secretariat needs to be beefed up if [it] is really to play a
role in terms of co-ordinating the different Departments".[158]
The National Security Secretariat coordinates security and intelligence
issues across Government and leads work on National Security Strategy
and the Strategic Defence and Security Review.[159]
An update to the National Security Strategy is expected in 2015.[160]
DEVELOPMENT, CONCEPTS AND DOCTRINE
CENTRE, MINISTRY OF DEFENCE
65. The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
describes itself as an internal think tank of the Ministry of
Defence.[161] The staff
team of around 65 are drawn from the Army, Navy, Air Force and
Civil Service.[162]
The Centre's origins can be traced to the 1998 strategic defence
review, which recognised a need for a clearer long-term, joint
vision of how the Government expects the armed forces to operate,
but their work necessarily embraces the whole of Government.[163]
The Cabinet Office's written evidence to this inquiry does not
mention the Centre.[164]
66. The Centre produces a range of strategies, reviews
and plans, including publishing UK Defence Doctrine. This is not
a set of beliefs or policies but guidance on how to think; a body
of theory, methodology and practice.[165]
The Cabinet Secretary has acknowledged that "the MoD and
the security side of Whitehall do this [horizon scanning] better,
in some ways, than the domestic, economic side of the Government".[166]
Professor Michael Clarke told us that the Centre does some very
distinguished work in horizon scanning.[167]
OTHER GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS AND
NETWORKS
67. Individual departments' horizon scanning and
foresight outputs are not always explicitly identified as such.[168]
Examples include the Department for Energy and Climate Change's
2050 Pathways Calculator, the Government's Industrial
Strategy and the Department of Health's UK Five Antimicrobial
Resistance Strategy, 2013-2018. Cabinet Office written evidence
to this inquiry does not set out a complete list of these activities,
nor detail how the centre of Government oversees them.[169]
68. Twenty five professional networks exist that
civil servants with a particular expertise are able to join, such
as the Government Economic Service. [170]
These groups maintain professional standards, play a role in recruitment
and develop guidance and resources for use across government departments.[171]
69. The Government set up a network of 'What Works
Centres' in 2013, intended to improve the way Government creates,
shares and uses evidence for decision-making.[172]
The Royal Statistical Society says "there should be further
investment in investigating what policy works, including through
the successful 'What Works' network. Money invested in the short-term
to support good policy will ensure unnecessary costs and mistakes
are avoided at a later date." The centres cover health and
social care, educational achievement, crime reduction, early intervention,
local economic growth, ageing and wellbeing.
70. The centres are:
· The
National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE);
· The
Sutton Trust/Educational Endowment Foundation;
· The
College of Policing;
· The
Early Intervention Foundation;
· The
LSE/Arup/Centre for Cities What Works Centre for Local Economic
Growth;
· The
Centre for Ageing Better; and
· The
What Works Centre for Wellbeing.[173]
There is a What Works National Adviser, David Halpern,
who together with his team in the Cabinet Office supports the
network.
PUBLIC BODIES
71. Cabinet Office written evidence names the Office
for Budget Responsibility, the Office for National Statistics
and the Met Office as organisations outside central government
which aim to provide expert, impartial advice and understanding
of future trends.[174]
Other bodies in the wider public sector, including universities
and the Research Councils, also carry out this work.
72. The Office for Budget Responsibility examines
and reports publicly on the sustainability of the public finances
and publishes an annual Fiscal Sustainability Report, assessing
the long-term economic and fiscal impact of government decisions.
The Office investigates the impact of trends and policies on the
public finances through forecasting, projections up to fifty years
ahead and balance sheet analysis.[175]
73. The Met Office is a world-leading centre of expertise
on weather and long-run climate modelling, the Cabinet Office's
written evidence states.[176]
Its Chief Scientist Professor Dame Julia Slingo told us that the
Office has built a strong relationship with the Research Councils
and leading universities, and so "when I am thinking about
what Government need, I do not just look at what I have been contracted
to do in the Met Office; I look at what I believe are the big
science opportunities and where the innovation is in science that
I can bring forward and operationalise into better services."[177]
74. Universities can play a key role in advising
the Government on potential threats, risks and other emerging
issues by providing expertise and evidence for future policy decisions.[178]
The precursor to what is today the Economic and Social Research
Council was created to provide Government with imaginative thinking
about social and economic possibilities.[179]
Its strategic priorities to some extent reflect consensus about
the problems facing state, society and economy in years to come,
the Academy of Social Sciences wrote.[180]
PARLIAMENT
75. Our predecessors recommended in 2007 that Parliament
strengthen its capacity to think ahead and engage with outside
experts and the wider public.[181]
The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology is undertaking
a programme of horizon scanning work looking at major trends in
society, technology, the environment, education and politics.[182]
76. The Finnish Parliament's Committee for the Future,
established in 1993 and made permanent in 2000, aims to conduct
dialogue with the Prime Minister's office and the government on
long-term issues affecting the policies and work of the Government.[183]
Following a general election, the Finnish Government is required
to produce a 'Report on the Future'.[184]
The Committee examines this report, forming the basis for Parliament's
scrutiny of the Government during that Parliament.[185]
77. Scotland's Futures Forum, a company limited by
guarantee, was created by the Scottish Parliament in 2006 to help
its Members think about future challenges and opportunities.[186]
It publishes reports and organises events on topics including
wellbeing, business succession and social finance.[187]
It has a small staff overseen by a Board of Directors which includes
MSPs.
SPENDING REVIEWS
78. Spending reviews determine how funding is allocated
between departments, looking forward one or more years. The Government
stated in 2012 that the strategic goals and ambitions of the country
should be the basis of spending review and budget processes.[188]
Cipfa argue that spending decisions and commitments should be
based on "long-term affordability, rather than short term
electioneering."[189]
To overcome the problems caused by departmental boundaries, Cipfa
argued that the Government should set spending plans in terms
of what needs to be jointly achieved. To achieve this, they suggest
that central government budget setting and financial management
should be reviewed to remove constraints on local service innovation
and to make services more coordinated, based on evidence of outcomes.[190]
79. There is an appetite for a spending review covering
a whole Parliament. Sir Nicholas Macpherson told us that, "ideally",
the next public spending review would set plans for the whole
next Parliament. The Political and Constitutional Reform Select
Committee recommended in July 2013 that spending reviews should
reflect the same timetable as five-year fixed term Parliaments.[191]
The Institute for Government said that rushed reviews cause more
problems later, and Cipfa call on the Government to allow departments
the time to carry out reviews effectively.[192]
Polling commissioned for the Institute for Government found that
84% of adults in Great Britain agreed that it is important that
politicians should take time to get the facts right when making
spending decisions.[193]
The 2010 spending review, covering financial years 2011-12, 2012-13,
2013-14 and 2014-15, was published on 20 October 2010, five and
a half months after the general election.[194]
80. The School of International Futures suggests
that the Treasury could have a powerful impact by using horizon
scanning studies as part of the spending review process, by asking
departments to demonstrate that their plans are robust in different
future scenarios.[195]
81. The Public Accounts Committee concluded that
the 2010 spending review provided no incentives for departments
to collaborate on cross-government issues.[196]
When we asked Oliver Letwin MP who in Government is responsible
for ensuring that spending plans are coherent across Government,
he cited: a Department, the Treasury; a process, the spending
review; and a Cabinet sub-committee, covering public expenditure.[197]
Our evidence shows that there remain limitations in cross-departmental
financial planning, for example, in respect of health and social
care (see Box 4).
Box 4: The relationship between health care and
social care
Care services tend to be fragmented, reflecting the professional and institutional boundaries of care providers such as the between the NHS and local government, rather than co-ordinated around the needs of the individual.[198] Performance is assessed against three 'outcomes frameworks' covering the NHS, public health, and social care separately.[199]
Sir Nicholas Macpherson told us the relationship between the NHS and local authorities, which are responsible for social care, is "absolutely critical" because "you can squeeze one bit of the system, but the problem just re-emerges somewhere else."[200]
The Minister for Government Policy explained why progress has been very slow. He said it was "an almost unsolvable problem, because of the differences between local authorities and the centrally funded NHS. We are now breaking those barriers down [
] The difficulty is one of breaking down these bureaucratic barriers and finding ways of getting people to pool budgets and work together [
] It is much too latewe should have been doing it 20, 30 and 40 years agobut at least it is now beginning."[201]
The Better Care Fund, which will pool at least £3.8 billion from April 2015, aims to provide more coordinated local services to older and disabled people to care for them in the community, keep them out of hospital and avoid long hospital stays.[202] The National Audit Office found that the quality of early preparation and planning did not match the scale of this ambition.[203] Oliver Letwin MP described progress on the fund as "very slow" because of what he describes as "an almost unsolvable problem", the differences between local authorities and the NHS.[204] He said "we are now breaking those barriers down."
|
WHOLE OF GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS
82. Whole of Government Accounts are a consolidated set of financial
statements for the UK public sector. They are "a kind of
horizon scanning", argued the Academy of Social Sciences.[205]
Sir Nicholas Macpherson welcomed them as: "one positive development
in recent years" because they "force us to make provisions
for nuclear decommissioning along with medical negligence. This
has provided quite an important discipline to the Treasury."[206]
83. The most recently published set of Whole of Government
Accounts showed that the Government is liable for total future
costs of £2,893 billion, including long-term liabilities
of public sector pensions (£1,172 billion), nuclear de-commissioning
(£69.8 billion) and the potential liabilities arising from
litigation for medical negligence in the NHS (£26.1 billion).[207]
Other government liabilities are accounting provisions for the
future costs that the public sector is not certain to incur but
where the probability is greater than 50%. Contingent liabilities,
reported separately, are costs that the public sector may incur
in the future, but where the probability is less than 50%, such
as clinical negligence claims that are less likely to succeed,
and guarantees to underwrite debt for infrastructure projects
such as Crossrail. These total £88 billion.[208]
84. The National Audit Office has qualified the Whole
of Government Accounts every year since their introduction due
to "significant continuing issues with the quality and consistency
of the data included". However, it reported: "as the
Treasury now has more Whole of Government Accounts trend data,
it is starting to highlight some of the longer-term risks on the
balance sheet. They are beginning to use this information to help
inform Government's spending plans."[209]
Cipfa advocate greater use of the Whole of Government Accounts
as the foundation for fiscal and spending decisions:
The UK boasts one of the most complete sets
of Whole of Government Accounts globally, including central and
local Government as well as public corporations. We are therefore
able to quantify our long-term commitments [
] and use this
information to determine long-term affordability.[210]
Limitations in government capacity
Limitations in financial planning
and management
85. We previously concluded in our Report Strategic
thinking in Government that the Budget process should improve
the link between long-term objectives and specific budgetary measures.[211]
86. Sir Nicholas Macpherson assured us the Treasury
is improving financial management: "We are going to have
fewer economists and a few more strategic financial managers."[212]
The Treasury's review of financial management in Government, published
2013, concluded that, while financial management had been on an
"improving trajectory" for many years, "concerted
effort" was required to improve costing, financial management
information and standards of management accounting .[213]
87. John Manzoni, Chief Executive of the Civil Service,
acknowledged:
Normally, in the headquarters of a company,
it is the functionality that parts of the Treasury and Cabinet
Office do. They would be in one headquarters. They are in two
different places here in government.[214]
Their separation "makes it slightly more complex"
but he insisted "they can work across those boundaries."[215]
John Manzoni praised the good cooperative working between the
Treasury and Cabinet Office and said "whatever the boxes
and the structure are, we have to create a mode of working that
is structure-agnostic".[216]
88. In a report published in February 2014, GovernUp,
a think tank, proposed the establishment of a single centre of
Government, an 'Office of Budget and Management', combining functions
from the Treasury and Cabinet Office.[217]
The United States federal government has an Office of Management
and Budget to coordinate cross-government spending plans.[218]
In Canada, the Treasury Board Secretariat plays a central role
in government financial planning.[219]
Similar arrangements are in place in other governments.
CIVIL SERVICE SKILLS AND TRAINING
89. The lack of a central training college for Whitehall
is a gaping void, argued Major General Jonathan Shaw, and one
which impedes cross-government working.[220]
He argued that a training college, a "national centre of
Government execution" should be set up to ensure common language
across politicians, civil servants and the military. The Institute
for Risk Management argued that civil servants should have greater
access to training on risk management.[221]
Satisfaction among civil servants with the learning and development
available to them is under 50%.[222]
In part to address these concerns, in February 2015 GovernUp called
for the introduction of a "proper programme of training and
development for ministers before and during their time in office".[223]
The Institute for Government's Julian McCrae wrote in response:
"I'm more convinced than ever that it is perfectly possible
to help politicians become more effective ministers, and that
there is a real appetite for such support among front-benchers."[224]
The Armed Forces Parliamentary Scheme has for over twenty years
offered members of the House of Commons, House of Lords and European
Parliament experience of spending a number of days with the armed
forces over the course of a year.[225]
We will be reporting on these matters soon on our inquiry into
Civil Service Skills.
90. There is
an impressive array of high quality long-term thinking and horizon
scanning across Government. The Civil Contingencies Secretariat
and Met Office provide an excellent public sector capability.
We welcome the Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology's
work in this area, prompted by our previous recommendation. We
also welcome the establishment of the Cabinet Office's horizon
scanning programme team and its aim to coordinate work between
departments. However, this central resource is much too small.
It needs the capacity and the authority to address gaps and duplications
and to coordinate a comprehensive and coherent analysis of the
risks and challenges facing the whole of Government.
91. We commend
the development of the National Risk Register. It is a vital tool
to enable and encourage thinking about better management of short
and long term risks. Together with Whole of Government Accounts,
which provides a deeper understanding of long term actual and
potential financial liabilities, they set down the context which
decision makers must consider. The challenge is to ensure that
this information is used in advice to ministers, and not ignored.
92. The Development,
Concepts and Doctrine Centre is generating world class horizon
scanning which embraces the whole of Government. Though its work
is used across Whitehall it is not even acknowledged by the Cabinet
Office in their written evidence. This shows that horizon scanning
is still regarded as ancillary rather than central to the business
of Government, and requires wider awareness of horizon scanning
and changes in attitude.
93. Long-term
thinking and the consideration of emerging trends need to be the
driving force behind financial management and far more coordinated
with public investment decisions. At present, horizon scanning
has little impact on financial planning, though we commend the
desire of the Cabinet Secretary, the Treasury Permanent Secretary
and the Civil Service Chief Executive to address this problem.
94. Comprehensive
Spending Reviews reflect the Treasury's legitimate preoccupation
with setting spending limits department by department. But there
is insufficient understanding of the cross-departmental effects
of investment decisions, and a lack of capacity to create genuinely
cross-government financial plans. The comment made by John Manzoni,
Civil Service Chief Executive, that "normally, in the headquarters
of a company, [
] parts of the Treasury and Cabinet Office
[
] would be in one headquarters [
which] makes it
slightly more complex", shows that the present structure
does not serve the interests of financial planning and management.
Other governments including the federal governments of Canada
and the United States have a single body to conduct financial
planning. Some, like the think tank GovernUp, have recommended
that functions from the Treasury and Cabinet Office should be
combined in a new Office of Budget and Management. The present
divide between the Treasury and Cabinet Office is a structural
impediment to effective financial planning and management.
111 Cabinet Office (WFC12) Back
112
Cabinet Office, National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, 2013 Back
113
Q 132. (The Department of Health and the Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs) Back
114
As above Back
115
Jill Rutter in Centre for Science and Policy, Future directions for scientific advice in Whitehall,
April 2013 Back
116
James Wilsdon and Robert Doubleday in Centre for Science and Policy,
Future directions for scientific advice in Whitehall, April 2013 Back
117
Cabinet Office, Horizon Scanning Programme Team, undated Back
118
Government Response to the Science and Technology Committee's
Ninth Report of Session 2013-14, Government horizon scanning,
HC 592 Back
119
Letter from Rt Hon Oliver Letwin MP to Andrew Miller MP, House of Commons Science and Technology Committee Legacy Report - Parliament 2010-2015 - Government Horizon Scanning,
8 December 2014; Cabinet Office, The Futures Toolkit: Tools for strategic futures for policy-makers and analysts,
August 2014 Back
120
As above Back
121
Speaking at Westminster Higher Education Forum Keynote Seminar:
Utilising academic research in policymaking - Horizon Scanning,
trend analysis and engagement with academics and business,
25 November 2014 Back
122
Q 116 Back
123
Cabinet Office, Review of cross-government horizon scanning, January
2013 Back
124
Q 465 Back
125
Q 135-136 Back
126
Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (WFC14) Back
127
Q 154 Back
128
Academy of Social Sciences (WFC4) Back
129
Public Administration Select Committee, First Report of Session
2010-12, Who does UK National Strategy?, HC 435, October 2010 Back
130
Cabinet Office (WFC12) Back
131
Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, Foresight projects,
October 2013 and Science and Technology Committee Ninth Report
of Session 2013-14, Government horizon scanning, HC 592, May 2014 Back
132
Cabinet Office (WFC12) Back
133
Science and Technology Committee Ninth Report of Session 2013-14,
Government horizon scanning, HC 703, May 2014 Back
134
HM Government, Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: The Strategic Defence and Security Review,
October 2010 Back
135
Defence Committee, First Report of Session 2010-11, The Strategic Defence and Security Review,
HC 345, September 2010 and Defence Committee, Sixth Report of
Session 2010-11, The Strategic Defence and Security Review and the National Security Strategy,
HC 761, August 2011 Back
136
As above Back
137
Sir Peter Luff, Decision Making in Defence Policy: Carriers Decisions,
December 2014 Back
138
Defence Select Committee, Fifth Report of Session 2012-13, Future Maritime Surveillance,
HC 110 [incorporating HC 1918-i of Session 2010-12], September
2012 Back
139
As above Back
140
Minutes of evidence taken before the Defence Select Committee,
Future Force 2020, Q 333, HC512, December 2014 Back
141
Q 487 Back
142
Institute for Government, A programme for effective government,
September 2014 Back
143
Roland Berger, Whither defence? Preparing for the next SDSR, November
2014 Back
144
Q 490 Back
145
Q 279 Back
146
Q 488 Back
147
Cabinet Office (WFC12) Back
148
As above Back
149
Cabinet Office, National security and intelligence, undated Back
150
Cabinet Office (WFC12) Back
151
Minutes of evidence taken before the Joint Committee on the National
Security Strategy, National Security Strategy, Q 12, HC1040, January
2014 Back
152
As above Back
153
Q 132 Back
154
Informal evidence gathered on Committee visit to North America,
November 2014 Back
155
Pandemic Flu Response Review Team/Cabinet Office, The 2009 Influenza Pandemic,
July 2010 Back
156
Cabinet Office, National Security Council, undated Back
157
Public Administration Select Committee, First Report of Session
2010-12, Who does UK National Strategy?, HC 435, October 2010
and Public Administration Select Committee, Twenty-Fourth Report
of Session 2010-12, Strategic thinking in Government: without National Strategy, can viable Government strategy emerge?,
HC 1625, April 2012 Back
158
Public Administration Select Committee, Twenty-Fourth Report of
Session 2010-12, Strategic thinking in Government: without National Strategy, can viable Government strategy emerge?,
HC 1625, April 2012 Back
159
Cabinet Office, National security and intelligence, undated Back
160
'Government advisers say don't release new national security strategy in 2015',
Civil Service World, 21 October 2014 Back
161
Ministry of Defence, Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre,
undated Back
162
As above Back
163
As above Back
164
Cabinet Office (WFC12) Back
165
Ministry of Defence, UK Defence Doctrine, November 2014 Back
166
Oral evidence taken on 24 May 2012, (2012-13), HC 113-i, Q 28 Back
167
Q 116 Back
168
Government Response to the Science and Technology Committee's
Ninth Report of Session 2013-14, Government horizon scanning,
HC 592 Back
169
Cabinet Office (WFC12) Back
170
Civil Service, Working for the Civil Service, undated Back
171
Minister for the Cabinet Office, Capabilities and Skills in the Civil Service,
October 2014 Back
172
Cabinet Office, What Works Network, June 2013 Back
173
As above Back
174
Cabinet Office (WFC12) Back
175
As above Back
176
As above Back
177
Q 80 Back
178
Russell Group of Universities, Government horizon scanning, October
2013 Back
179
Academy of Social Sciences (WFC4) Back
180
As above Back
181
Public Administration Select Committee, Second Report of Session
2006-07, Governing the future, HC 123i, March 2007 Back
182
Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, Planned work,
undated Back
183
Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, Futures and foresight,
POST Note, May 2009 Back
184
Committee for the Future, Parliament of Finland, Presentation of the Committee,
October 2014 Back
185
As above Back
186
Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, Futures and foresight,
POST Note, May 2009 Back
187
http://scotlandfutureforum.org/ Back
188
Government Response to the Twenty Fourth Report of the Public
Administration Select Committee, Strategic thinking in Government: without National Strategy, can viable Government strategy emerge?,
Session 2010-12, HC 1625 Back
189
Cipfa (WFC16) Back
190
Chartered Institute of Public Finance & Accountancy, Cipfa Manifesto 2015,
November 2014 Back
191
Q 281 and Political and Constitutional Reform Committee, The role and powers of the Prime Minister: The impact of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 on Government,
Fourth Report of Session 2013-14, HC 440, July 2013 Back
192
Institute for Government, Preparing for the Next Spending Review A briefing note,
September 2014 and Cipfa (WFC16) Back
193
Institute for Government, A programme for effective government,
September 2014 Back
194
HM Treasury, Spending Review 2010, May 2013 Back
195
School of International Futures (WFC11) Back
196
Public Accounts Committee, Thirty-Fourth Report of Session 2012-13,
Managing Budgeting in Government, HC 661, March 2013 Back
197
Q 475 Back
198
British Heart Foundation (WFC13) Back
199
As above Back
200
Q 248 Back
201
Q 482 Back
202
National Audit Office, Planning for the Better Care Fund, HC 781,
November 2014 Back
203
As above Back
204
Q 482 Back
205
Academy of Social Sciences (WFC4) Back
206
Q 254 Back
207
NHS Litigation Authority Report and Accounts 2013-14, p10 (public
sector pensions), p26 (nuclear decommissioning) and p59 (medical
negligence) Back
208
HM Treasury, Whole of Government Accounts, June 2014 Back
209
National Audit Office, Whole of Government Accounts 2012-13,
June 2014 Back
210
Cipfa (WFC16) Back
211
Public Administration Select Committee, Twenty-Fourth Report of
Session 2010-12, Strategic thinking in Government: without National Strategy, can viable Government strategy emerge?,
HC 1625, April 2012 Back
212
Q 291 Back
213
HM Treasury, Review of financial management in government, December
2013 Back
214
Oral evidence taken on 14 January 2015, (2014-15), HC 922, Q 14
Back
215
As above Back
216
Oral evidence taken on 14 January 2015, (2014-15), HC 922, Q 13 Back
217
Martin Wheatley, Repurposing Whitehall, GovernUp, 2015 Back
218
Congressional Research Service, Executive Budget Process: an overview,
2012, p2 Back
219
Committee visit to North America, November 2014 Back
220
Q 223 Back
221
Institute of Risk Management (WFC2) Back
222
Cabinet Office, Civil Service People Survey, November 2014 Back
223
Martin Wheatley, Repurposing Whitehall, GovernUp, 2015 Back
224
Institute for Government, Plenty of food for thought - but choose carefully from the menu,
February 2015 Back
225
Armed Forces Parliamentary Scheme, www.af-ps.info, 2015 Back
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