Appendix 1: Government response
INTRODUCTION
1. The Government is pleased that the Committee believes
that "horizon scanning is a potentially valuable activity"
that "can enhance both short-and long-term decision-making".
That is why in the Civil Service Reform Plan (2012), the Government
instigated a review into horizon scanning capability across government,
and implemented the findings of the Day Review in early 2013.
We agree with the Committee that we will not be able to predict
the future with complete accuracy, but it is important that Government
has space to investigate future trends in a systematic and rigorous
way, and ask itself whether it is adequately prepared for potential
opportunities and threats.
2. The Committee rightly looked closely at how the
Horizon Scanning Programme engages with external experts and how
it uses the outputs of its consultation. The Government does not
hold have a monopoly of wisdom in this area and we recognise that
external expertise is vital to the success of the Programme. The
Government wishes to highlight to the Committee the considerable
engagement with external expertise the Programme has undertaken
from the start, specifically we have:
a) held a two day cross-government 'Strategic
Foresight Symposium' on 10-11 February 2014 which was attended
by over 200 delegates from across government, industry, and academia.
The outputs of this event have helped to inform the programme's
Year 2 projects;
b) formed an 'Emerging Technologies Community
of Interest', which includes representatives from 29 Government
organisations and external experts such as the Royal Society,
Arup, BP, and NESTA. The Community has brought together a wide-ranging
group of experts both internally and externally to help Government
assess future implications of technologies on individual departments;
and
c) used an academic advisory group, as well as
Ipsos MORI, NatCen Social Research and the University of Manchester,
focus groups of young people and high potential Civil Servants
from across government to establish a better understanding of
the policy implications of the evolving social attitudes of young
people.
3. While the Government acknowledges that we may
not have been as quick to publish outputs from the Programme as
the Committee would have liked, we believe it is important to
carry out this work carefully, and we intend to publish a set
of outputs later this year. The Government believes it is important
to recognise that the primary goal of the first year of the Programme
was to address the findings of the Day Review, and to break down
the siloed nature of strategic horizon scanning in departments.
Only by doing this, and by establishing a robust governance structure,
could high-quality analysis be produced for consideration by the
Cabinet Secretary's Advisory Group.
4. The Committee made recommendations relating to
the role of the Government Office for Science in the Horizon Scanning
Programme. In March this year, the Cabinet Secretary created the
'Horizon Scanning Programme Team' by merging the two cross-government
horizon scanning-focused teams in the Cabinet Office (Horizon
Scanning Secretariat) and Government Office for Science (Horizon
Scanning Centre). This merger means that the Horizon Scanning
Programme combines the former teams' respective strengths, expertise,
and networks to enhance the Programme and its outputs.
5. The Horizon Scanning Programme has made good progress
in its first year. Aside from the examples already mentioned,
specific highlights include:
a) identifying 'Big Data' as a specific area
for further analysis. A new subset of work has been commissioned
to analyse the common understanding of Big Data across government
and the long term implications for departments. This work has
helped Government to understand the role which this specific technology
can and may play in future policy-making;
b) strengthening the Government's approach to
resource scarcity and security by identifying, through a horizon
scanning exercise, the potential policy implications of resource
nationalism on the UK. This work has resulted in the formation
of a cross-Whitehall director-level group to take forward a number
of recommendations, as well as to provide a strategic forum to
consider future opportunities and threats; and
c) working towards establishing a baseline understanding
across Government of demographic data and associated assumptions,
and beginning to explore their policy implications for individual
departments and Government as a whole.
6. In Year 2 the Government will further increase
its engagement with external experts and awareness-raising of
the Horizon Scanning Programme, using a range of approaches (such
as high-level roundtable discussions) as well as a dedicated web
presence on GOV.UK and other online and offline engagement tools.
7. Horizon scanning by the Devolved Administrations
is a matter for them and their respective legislatures and is
not covered by this response.
RESPONSE TO THE COMMITTEE'S RECOMMENDATIONS
8. The structure of the Government's response below
follows the headings and order set out in the Committee's report
(pages 36-39).
HORIZON SCANNING IN GOVERNMENT
Recommendation 2: Unlike
the Minister, we consider it important that the term 'horizon
scanning' is properly defined and applied by government. Inconsistent
use of this term has clearly caused confusion in the past. We
remind the Government that the Day review cited it as a contributory
factor in the Government's historic failure to properly embed
horizon scanning into its decision-making.
9. There is no one-size-fits-all definition of horizon
scanning. However the definition set out in the Day Review (January
2013) provides a level of common understanding across government.
It is the Government's view that what is most important is for
departments to focus on delivering best practice, sharing insight
and thinking strategically based on the best and freshest evidence
from a range of sources, inside and outside government.
Recommendation 3:
In this report, we have had little choice but to adopt the
Government's usage of the term 'horizon scanning'; however, this
is by no means an endorsement. We consider the term 'futures analysis'
to be a more accurate description of the suite of activities undertaken
by Government under the banner of 'horizon scanning'. We are also
unconvinced by the Government's argument that its branding of
horizon scanning has been so successful as to make a correction
impractical. We therefore recommend that the Government rename
its horizon scanning programme the 'futures research programme'
and clearly set out, both internally and in public, the techniques
that it considers to be within the programme's remit.
10. The Government maintains that the Horizon Scanning
Programme accurately reflects the aims and activities of this
work, regardless of the intricacies of the definitions available.
After a year of promoting the brand within government, industry,
academia, and international stakeholders, the Government strongly
believes that a change at this point would cause needless disruption
and confusion.
Recommendation 4:
It is beyond this inquiry's remit to conduct a full review
of horizon scanning across individual government departments.
However, given the inconsistencies of practice and performance
that have been highlighted in the past we consider it important
that the mechanism for regular scrutiny is put in place. We recommend
that the Government Office for Science incorporate a regular review
of departmental horizon scanning into the next phase of its Science
and Engineering Assurance programme.
11. The Government believes that engagement with
specific departments when issues are identified is more efficient
and effective than a systematic, all-encompassing review across
departments. That is why the Government Office for Science has
substantially revised its Science and Engineering Assurance Reviews
programme. The Government Office for Science is currently piloting
an in-depth review of the provision of science evidence in the
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, whilst also
working with other departments to build and enhance their capability
by providing a range of support and advice as the situation requires.
THE ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT OFFICE
FOR SCIENCE
Recommendation 6: We
regard the work of the Foresight programme to be excellent and
consider its relative lack of impact on policy to be a reflection
of GO-Science's non-central location in Government rather than
the quality of the Foresight programme's outputs.
Recommendation 7: We
consider the Government's position regarding the location of GO-Science
to be illogical, particularly in light of its recent decision
to place horizon scanning—quite rightly in our view—at
the heart of government decision-making, in the Cabinet Office.
Horizon scanning is a cross-cutting activity with widespread and
potentially significant policy implications, which the Government
has committed to embedding across the Civil Service. The same
can be said for much of the work of GO-Science. We are therefore
at a loss to understand why a recommendation accepted as good
practice for one—namely strategic coordination of horizon
scanning from the Cabinet Office—has been repeatedly rejected
for the other. We again recommend that the Government Office for
Science be relocated from the Department for Business, Innovation
and Skills to the Cabinet Office, where it can more easily fulfil
its remit of ensuring that the best scientific evidence is utilised
across government.
12. The Government does not see a compelling reason
for re-locating the Government Office for Science to the Cabinet
Office. There are strong benefits to Government Office for Science's
co-location with the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills,
particularly the proximity to the science, universities, innovation,
and industrial sector teams in Department for Business, Innovation
and Skills, amongst others. But this does not prevent the Government
Office for Science from having strong links with other government
departments or a leadership role across the whole science and
technology agenda. This is further reinforced by the fact that
Sir Mark Walport reports directly to the Cabinet Secretary and
the two remain in close touch.
13. The Government agrees that the Government Office
for Science plays a valuable role in cross-government horizon
scanning, and the Office has played an integral part in the Horizon
Scanning Programme from the programme's inception. Sir Mark Walport
has provided a scientific perspective to the discussions at the
Cabinet Secretary Advisory Group, and officials in the Office
have provided the same perspective at the director-level group,
and where relevant, several of the communities of interest.
14. Recognising the important role the Government
Office of Science has played in the Horizon Scanning Programme,
the Cabinet Secretary approved the merger of the two respective
cross-government horizon scanning teams in the Cabinet Office
and Government Office for Science. The newly merged team means
that the Horizon Scanning Programme combines the former teams'
respective strengths, expertise, and networks to enhance the Programme
and its outputs. The purpose of the new team is as follows:
a) coordinate Horizon Scanning work across Whitehall
and in line with cross-government strategic priorities;
b) obtain new insights and challenge from a spectrum
of expertise both within and outside of government;
c) ensure that the best scientific evidence is
utilised across government in Horizon Scanning activity;
d) be a centre of expertise for horizon scanning
analysis; and
e) strengthen strategic thinking and use of horizon
scanning across the Civil Service.
Figure 1: New structure of the Horizon
Scanning Programme Team
Recommendation 8:
From its new location, we hope that GO-Science would naturally
become more fully integrated into the horizon scanning programme.
However, we also think that this relationship would benefit from
being formally strengthened. We recommend that the Government
Chief Scientific Adviser sits permanently on both the Cabinet
Secretary's Advisory Group (CSAG) and the Horizon Scanning Oversight
Group and that GO-Science be represented in all communities of
interest. We also encourage Departmental Chief Scientific Advisers
(DCSAs) to engage more closely with the programme and suggest
that DCSAs or their deputies offer themselves as representatives
for any community of interest in which their department has an
interest.
15. The Government fully agrees with the recommendation
by the Committee and that is why the Government Chief Scientific
Adviser, Sir Mark Walport is a permanent member of the
Cabinet Secretary's Advisory Group. Although GO Science has been
represented at the Government Oversight of Scanning the Horizon
Group, one of the actions agreed in the merger of the respective
horizon scanning teams, was for Sir Mark Walport to co-chair this
director-level group with Jon Day. Furthermore, it was agreed
that Sir Mark Walport would have a standing item on the agenda
of every Cabinet Secretary Advisory Group meeting in which to
provide an update on the Government Office for Science activities,
including Foresight projects. This is also echoed in the Government
Oversight of Scanning the Horizon Group to ensure maximum awareness
at both critical governance points in the programme.
16. The Government Office for Science will provide
advice to all new Communities of Interest either through consultation
with the chair(s) of the respective Community of Interest or by
formal representation on the group, as appropriate and where resources
permit. The combined resource of the new Horizon Scanning Programme
Team now possesses sufficient resource to improve support for
the various Communities of Interest.
17. The Government fully agrees to this recommendation
and note that a number of Departmental Chief Scientists are already
represented at the Government Oversight of Scanning the Horizon
Group. Deputy Chief Scientists are also represented on the Emerging
Technologies Community of Interest and, where their department
has an interest, will continue to do so in future communities
of interests.
18. The recent merger to form the Horizon Scanning
Programme Team has enabled a better coordinated level of engagement
from the network of Departmental Chief Scientific Advisors. In
April 2014, the Government Chief Scientific Adviser and Departmental
Chief Scientific Advisors met to discuss the opportunity of engaging
more closely with the Emerging Technologies Communities of Interest.
This process is ongoing and will be formalised for new communities
of interests in which Departmental Chief Scientific Advisors identify
a departmental interest.
TRANSPARENCY AND COMMUNICATION
Recommendation 9:
We accept that it may sometimes be necessary for the findings
of government horizon scanning to remain confidential, particularly
when they relate to sensitive issues such as security and defence.
However, such cases should be the exception, not the rule. With
these exceptions, we propose that the outputs of all Government
horizon scanning be made transparent (with exceptions for work
that relates to sensitive issues such as defence and security).
This recommendation applies both to centrally managed horizon
scanning and that conducted at the departmental level, which we
consider to be somewhat poorly communicated at present.
19. As Jon Day stated in the Government evidence
session to the Science and Technology Committee on 4 December
2013, the default position of the programme is to publish the
evidence. The first year of the Horizon Scanning Programme has
focused on a establishing robust governance structure; developing
a clear pipeline of projects, fostering strong links with external
horizon scanning groups; and creating high-quality analyses for
the programme. Now that the structures are in place and the Year
1 work is nearing completion, the Horizon Scanning Programme Team
will publish a number of products, covering horizon scanning analysis,
tools to build capability across the Civil Service, and more general
updates to raise awareness of and promote programme activities
later this year.
Recommendation 11:
We also encourage all departments to increase the transparency
of their own horizon scanning by providing links to key departmental
outputs through this central page and by making supporting information
available via a public hub such as data.gov.uk.
20. Individual departments do publish their Horizon
Scanning outputs and evidence packs where they can (within security
constraints), although these are not always explicitly identified
as 'horizon scanning' publications (e.g. The Department for Energy
and Climate Change's '2050 Pathways Calculator' and HMG's 'Industrial
Strategy'). The Department of Health's 'UK Five Antimicrobial
Resistance Strategy, 2013-2018' which was published on the department's
website in September 2013, while also not specifically branded
as a 'horizon scanning' publication, has a global scope and looks
over future horizons (e.g. scenarios analysis cover a 20 year
period). The Horizon Scanning Programme plans to improve its own
transparency and engagement as well as those of departments by
using innovative techniques, such as blog posts on gov.uk to highlight
outputs from the programme as well as signpost to new publications
by departments.
Recommendation 10:
We were encouraged by the Minister's plans to "go beyond
mere transparency into a positive programme of communication"
as part of the new horizon scanning programme. However, several
months in, we have not yet seen any evidence of this occurring.
We have been disappointed by the lack of information shared about
this programme—particularly in relation to its individual
work strands—and do not feel that this lays a strong groundwork
for the interactive approach which the Minister claims the programme
will soon be taking. We recommend that the Government enhance
the visibility and transparency of the new horizon scanning programme
by promptly setting up a dedicated gov.uk webpage. The new webpage
should: i) detail the background and objectives of the programme;
ii) clearly set out the landscape for government horizon scanning,
detailing the roles and responsibilities of all major centres
of activity; iii) set-out the terms of reference and current membership
of the Cabinet Secretary's Advisory Group (CSAG) and the Horizon
Scanning Oversight Group (GOSH); iv) provide access to the minutes
of meetings of both CSAG and GOSH; v) detail the objectives, scope
and planned activities for each work strand, together with membership
of the relevant community of interest; vi) provide links to all
of the programme's outputs and supporting documentation, including
a facility for comment and interactive engagement, and vii) provide
information and contact details for organisations and individuals
who wish to become involved with the programme. This webpage should
be launched by July 2014 at the latest.
21. The Horizon Scanning Programme's Engagement Plan
is currently being implemented and this includes the development
of a web presence on 'GOV.UK' portal which will progressively
include a number of channels for communication with the wider
public, ranging from evidence papers and signposts to other relevant
material in the form of blogs and tools for building horizon scanning
capability. The aim of this page is to increase the transparency
of the Horizon Scanning Programme and includes, wherever possible,
the information recommended by the committee in points i), ii),
iii) and v).
22. Clearly, there will be some items that will require
greater consideration before release to the public. Discussions
about future trends and events will necessarily be quite speculative
and could consider a range of potential policy implications: these
will not be fully formed policy decisions, but part of the early
thinking, in many cases, that informs policy. It is important
to allow these early discussions to happen freely; and for this
reason minutes will not be published.
EXTERNAL ENGAGEMENT
Recommendation 12:
Government horizon scanning must be open to challenge if it
is to be effective and this means that it must accommodate a range
of external viewpoints. This was made clear in the Day review
and we were therefore surprised and disappointed to discover that
none of the bodies created in its aftermath currently include
any external representation. While we acknowledge the need for
government horizon scanning to be government-led, we see little
value in a horizon scanning exercise which does not incorporate
a broader perspective.
23. The Government agrees that external expertise
and challenge are extremely important to ensure the Horizon Scanning
Programme benefits from the latest and best thinking and insight
from outside government. For this reason external engagement is
a central objective of the programme and a number of communities
of interest have drawn on external expertise to help shape and
test key outputs. For example:
a) a wide range of external groups were involved
in the Social Attitudes of Young People project, including private
sector organisations and think tanks. Significant contributors
included: Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute, NatCen Social
Research and University of Manchester Institute for Social Change;
b) the Emerging Technologies Community of Interest
(led by the Government Office for Science and the Ministry of
Defence, and represented by 29 government organisations) engaged
with and distilled work undertaken in departments and the Government
Office for Science Foresight exercises, and consulted experts
from the Royal Society, ARUP, BP, NESTA, the National Physical
Laboratory, the Science and Technology Facilities Council, The
Food Standards Agency, the Intellectual Property Office, the Research
Councils, the wider defence and national security community, and
the Technology Strategy Board, among others; and
c) the Changing Supply and Demand of Resources
Community of Interest drew on external expertise by contracting
Cranfield University, via the existing DEFRA contract agreement
with the university, to carry out the horizon scanning analysis
as part of the evidence for consideration by the Cabinet Secretary's
Advisory Group.
24. Since the written and oral evidence was submitted
to the committee, the Horizon Scanning Programme Team has held
several events to provide effective access to leading-edge thinking
and evidence from outside of government. The main event was the
Cross Government Strategic Foresight Symposium, held on 10th-11th
February 2014 in London and facilitated by MoD's Defence Science
and Technology Laboratory (Dstl). This was the first time such
an event had been held for Futures practitioners and policy and
strategy officials across government at such senior levels. The
Symposium attracted over 250 delegates over two days (from departments
and agencies, and external experts from industry and academia).
The insights gleaned from this symposium have informed proposals
for new work strands for the Horizon Scanning Programme, while
department-specific findings are being shared with the relevant
departments.
25. With the maturation of the programme and the
formation of the Horizon Scanning Programme Team, even greater
focus is now being given to improving current levels of external
engagement. The Government will maximise "network effects"
by utilising the Government Office for Science's valuable networks
(private sector, Chief Scientists, Government Heads of Horizon
Scanning, and so on) to test and refine new horizon scanning work
throughout the project lifecycle. A range of external engagement
events is planned to shape the new topics.
Recommendation 13:
At its best, horizon scanning is underpinned by scientific
techniques and can be enhanced by the involvement of scientific
experts, whatever the topic. We therefore recommend that representatives
of each of the UK national academies—the Royal Society,
the British Academy and the Royal Academy of Engineering—be
included as observers on the Horizon Scanning Oversight Group
(GOSH) and that membership of the communities of interest be immediately
opened up to external organisations, including academic groups,
learned societies and industry.
26. Several current Communities of Interest have
active members from the learned societies, industry, academia,
and think tanks. The Horizon Scanning Programme Team will formalise
and expand these arrangements where appropriate.
27. The Government will invite external representatives
to attend the Government Oversight of Scanning the Horizon group
as the subject and situation requires but, for reasons outlined
above, does not propose to create standing external membership
of this group at this time.
Recommendation 14:
We consider it vital that the horizon scanning conducted on
behalf of Government informs and is informed by horizon scanning
conducted on behalf of Parliament. We consider the Parliamentary
Office of Science and Technology (POST) to be one possible conduit
for this flow of information. We recommend that representatives
from POST act as observers on all relevant communities of interest
included within the new horizon scanning programme.
28. For the last 4 years, a representative from POST
has sat on the Government Office for Science Heads of Horizon
Scanning Committee and members of POST were invited to the Horizon
Scanning Programme cross-Government strategic foresight symposium
in February. However, the Government agrees that closer engagement
would be beneficial and the Horizon Scanning Programme Team will
discuss with POST the role it can play in the programme.
Recommendation 15:
We also recommend that the Government establishes a method
through which parliamentarians with an interest in horizon scanning—for
example, Select Committee Chairs and Members—can engage
with the new horizon scanning programme.
29. The Government plans to engage with parliamentarians
after the summer recess by setting up, with POST if possible,
an information session chaired by Sir Mark Walport or Jon Day.
This session will provide an overview of the work going on within
the programme and afford parliamentarians an opportunity to discuss
and advise on the work of the Horizon Scanning Programme.
CONCLUSION
Recommendation 16: We
do not consider it satisfactory for proper Ministerial oversight
to commence over six months after a new initiative has been launched.
Indeed, we consider this to indicate a lack of careful thought
in the planning of the new programme that is also apparent in
several aspects of its design and implementation. We
recommend that the Government take a more considered approach
to such initiatives in the future and encourage it to seriously
consider the recommendations made in this report to address the
shortcomings of its new horizon scanning programme.
30. The Minister for the Cabinet Office, Francis
Maude, and other Ministers were engaged in the Horizon Scanning
Programme from the outset, with Francis Maude taking a particular
interest in the structure and governance of the Horizon Scanning
Secretariat function within the Cabinet Office. Now that the structure
and governance of the Horizon Scanning programme is in place,
it was appropriate to reassess the programme's ministerial oversight.
The Horizon Scanning programme is now overseen by the Minister
for Government Policy, Oliver Letwin, who takes a close interest
in the programme and actively engages with it. Sir Jeremy Heywood
and Sir Mark Walport regularly update the Minister on the progress
of the Horizon Scanning Programme and the Minister will continue
to support and steer the programme.
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