Setting the fifth carbon budget Contents

Summary

The Climate Change Act commits the UK to reducing carbon emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. To meet this target, the UK Government sets carbon budgets, or caps in emissions, for each five-year period between 2008 and 2050. The budgets are important stepping stones on the path to 2050 and provide the certainty needed for policy decisions and investment to take place.

The level of four carbon budgets have so far been set in law, covering the period up to 2027. The UK is currently on track to meet the first three carbon budgets but there are questions about whether adequate policies are in place to meet the emissions reductions needed in the late 2020s under the fourth carbon budget period. As required by the Act, the Secretary of State must set the level of the fifth carbon budget (for the period from 2028 to 2032) by 30 June 2016.

In November 2015, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) published its advice on the level of fifth carbon budget and recommended that it should be set at 1,765 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), including 40 MtCO2e emissions from international shipping. The CCC has produced robust advice that is in line with previous budgets and with the overall trajectory towards meeting the 2050 target. Our principal recommendation is that the Government should set the fifth carbon budget at the level recommended by the CCC. Should the Government deviate from the CCC’s advice on the level of the fifth carbon budget, we will be looking carefully for a robust evidence-base on any alternative level proposed.

Further recommendations we make include:

Effectively meeting the Climate Change Act and the commitments made in Paris will require action across the board. The Government’s emissions reduction plan, which it said it will publish by the end of the year, will be crucial in providing policy certainty across sectors. We will pay close attention to the development of this plan. We have already set out in recent reports what more Government must do to build investor confidence and tackle energy efficiency, and our scrutiny of DECC’s policies in heat and transport is also underway.





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25 April 2016