1Introduction
The negotiations: deal
1.On 14 November 2018, the Prime Minister announced from Downing Street that the Cabinet had collectively endorsed a deal, struck by EU and UK negotiators, on the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union, along with a framework for the future EU-UK relationship.1 The terms of the UK’s exit are set out in a Withdrawal Agreement2 and the aims of the future EU-UK relationship are set out in a Political Declaration.3 On 25 November 2018, both documents were adopted in principle by the European Council.4
2.The Withdrawal Agreement contains legal commitments relating to citizens’ rights, the backstop for the Northern Ireland/Ireland border, a financial settlement, a governance structure to manage any future disputes over the Withdrawal Agreement, and the terms of a transition/implementation period.5 Most of these provisions apply only up to the end of the transition/implementation period, or for a time-limited period thereafter.
3.In contrast to the legally binding Withdrawal Agreement, the Political Declaration is an aspirational document. It contains broad negotiating objectives for the future EU-UK relationship on the economy, security and foreign policy. The sections on the economy do not set out a single, end state for negotiators to work towards. Instead, there is a “spectrum”6 of choices which could lead to a looser CETA-style free trade agreement between the EU and the UK or to a relationship that is based on following EU rules and a close customs arrangement. These options are very different and would involve trade-offs with profound consequences for many businesses based in the UK and for the wider UK economy.
4.The Withdrawal Agreement can only come into force if it is ratified before 29 March 2019. Both the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration must now be approved by the UK and European Parliaments. If approved by the UK Parliament, the European Parliament will then be asked to give its consent before the deal is presented to the European Council for final approval by ‘super qualified majority’.7 If approved and ratified, the framework for the detailed negotiations on the future relationship will be set out before 29 March 2019 but the negotiations themselves will begin only once the UK has left the EU8 and will continue during the transition/implementation period.9 This is contrary to the Prime Minister’s statement in her Lancaster House speech in January 2017, in which she said:
I want us to have reached an agreement about our future partnership by the time the 2-year Article 50 process has concluded. From that point onwards, we believe a phased process of implementation, in which both Britain and the EU institutions and Member States prepare for the new arrangements that will exist between us will be in our mutual self-interest.10
5.The adoption by the Government and the European Union of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration on the future relationship is a significant moment. Since the Government triggered Article 50, the negotiations have been conducted against a hard deadline and in circumstances of great political sensitivity, reflecting their critical importance to the UK and its place in the world. Parliament will now vote on whether to give its consent to the deal the Government has brought back from Brussels. In this report, we assess what the deal would mean, and we set out what might happen next, depending on the result of the vote in the House of Commons. However, it is clear that after 20 months of intense negotiations, only the terms of the UK’s exit are fully known; the nature of the future relationship with the European Union is not, and therefore does not provide long-term certainty.
This report
6.Since Article 50 was triggered on 29 March 2017, we have published a series of reports on the progress of the negotiations.11 In this report, we examine the key elements of the deal that has been reached between the Government and the European Union.
7.On 21 November 2018, we took evidence from Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform; Professor Franklin Dehousse, a former Judge at the General Court of the European Union and Dr Holger Hestermeyer, Shell Reader in International Dispute Resolution at King’s College London.12 On 3 December 2018, we took evidence on the terms of the deal from the Rt Hon. Stephen Barclay MP, who was appointed Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union on 16 November 2018,13 and Oliver Robbins, the Prime Minister’s Europe Advisor and UK Coordinator for the Article 50 negotiations. We draw upon that evidence in this report and we thank everyone who has contributed to our inquiry.
8.On 4 December 2018, the House voted to hold Ministers in contempt of Parliament for their failure to comply with the requirements of a motion, agreed by the House on 13 November 2018, that the Government should publish “the final and full legal advice provided by the Attorney General to the Cabinet concerning the EU Withdrawal Agreement and the framework for the future relationship”, and ordered its immediate publication. After the vote on 4 December 2018, the Leader of the House said that the Government would publish the “final and full advice” the following day. We did not have time to consider the legal advice in full before publishing this report.
1 Prime Minister, PM’s statement on Brexit, 14 November 2018
2 Department for Exiting the European Union, Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community, as endorsed by leaders at a special meeting of the European Council on 25 November 2018, 25 November 2018
3 Department for Exiting the European Union, Political Declaration setting out the Framework for the Future Relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom, 25 November 2018
4 European Council, Special meeting of the European Council (Art. 50), 25 November 2018
5 The Withdrawal Agreement also contains legal provisions on a range of other separation issues, including data protection, geographical indications, ongoing police and judicial cooperation in criminal matters, intellectual property, ongoing public procurement procedures, ongoing judicial cooperation on civil and commercial matters and ongoing judicial and administrative procedures.
7 Approval by at least 72% of the 27 participating Member States also comprising 65% of the EU-population –excluding the UK
8 Department for Exiting the European Union, Political Declaration setting out the Framework for the Future Relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom, 22 November 2018, para. 141
9 Department for Exiting the European Union, Political Declaration setting out the Framework for the Future Relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom, 22 November 2018, para. 144
10 Prime Minister, The government’s negotiating objectives for exiting the EU, 17 January 2017
11 Exiting the European Union Committee, Publications
12 Exiting the European Union Committee, Oral evidence: The progress of the UK’s negotiations on EU withdrawal, HC 372, 21 November 2018
13 Gov.uk, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Stephen Barclay MP. His predecessor, the Rt Hon. Dominic Raab MP resigned from the Government on 15 November 2018, the morning after the Cabinet collectively endorsed the Withdrawal Agreement and Outline Political Declaration, as the provisions of the deal did not carry his support. See, The Times, Full text of Dominic Raab and Esther McVey’s letters of resignation, 15 November 2018
Published: 9 December 2018