5Conclusions
171.There is no majority in the House for the Prime Minister’s deal in its current form. We repeat our recommendation from our January 2019 Report that “It is vital that the House of Commons is now given the opportunity to identify an option that might secure a majority”.
172.There appears to be no majority in the House of Commons in favour of a no deal exit, although that remains the default outcome if the House of Commons is unable to approve the deal that has been reached or pass the legislation required to implement it in domestic law. While the EU might agree to side deals to mitigate the worst of the disruption of a no deal outcome, this cannot be guaranteed, and we are concerned by the extent to which assumptions of an ongoing cooperative relationship underpin the Government’s no deal planning. Since these assumptions cannot be guaranteed, a “managed no deal” cannot constitute the policy of any responsible Government.
173.Any co-operative relationship with the EU following a no deal exit will likely require the UK to come up with a reasonable offer on settling its outstanding financial obligations, undertake some guarantee of the rights of EU citizens in the UK, and provide some indication of how a hard border in Ireland will be avoided in the event that the UK pursues an independent trade policy and a policy of regulatory divergence. Without guarantees in these three areas, which have been the EU’s priorities since the beginning of the process, expectations of maintaining cooperation to minimise disruptions to trade, security co-operation and a whole range of areas of mutual interest could be misplaced.
174.However, there are options to pursue if the Government is able to identify a course of action that will be supported by the House of Commons. The UK has the right to revoke Article 50 and, if there is a majority for such a course of action, Parliament could, if necessary legislate for a referendum. This would most likely require an extension of the Article 50 process which, for this purpose, we are confident would be granted.
175.Another option is re-negotiation. There is little to suggest that a request to the EU to re-open negotiations on the legally binding provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement would be welcomed. However, a majority in the House of Commons may be able to accept the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement if it has a greater degree of confidence that the Government is on track to negotiate a future relationship that it would find acceptable after exit. None of the future relationship options that have been discussed are “off the shelf” and it may be necessary to request an extension for further negotiations on the Political Declaration to seek to define before exit a future relationship that the House of Commons can accept.
Published: 28 January 2019