Immigration and Scotland Contents

2Scotland’s immigration needs

5.During this inquiry we heard two main arguments about the importance of immigration to Scotland: that immigration was necessary to address the demographic challenges Scotland faces, and that immigration was needed to support the Scottish economy.

Demographic challenges

6.During our predecessor Committee’s inquiry into the demography of Scotland, it heard that although Scotland now has a growing population, natural changes (changes from births and deaths) cannot sustain the future population which Scotland needs to achieve economic growth and to meet the needs of an ageing population. That Committee concluded that measures to encourage population growth, including continuing to encourage migration into Scotland, were necessary to ensure that Scotland’s economy and society have a thriving future.

7.Scotland’s current population, at 5,404,700, is the highest ever recorded and has increased by 5.3% over the last ten years, but there are concerns about whether future growth can be sustained. Dr Eve Hepburn told us that Scotland’s projected population increase is one of the lowest in Europe, and is heavily dependent on migration.4 Similarly Chris Murray, IPPR Scotland, argued that population growth was the biggest demographic issue for Scotland, noting that its population was growing less quickly than the population of England.5 In the last year, Scotland’s population growth was entirely due to net inward migration from the rest of the UK and from overseas,6 and all projected future population growth over the next 25 years is expected to be from migration.7

8.More than half of Scotland’s population is concentrated in the central belt from Glasgow in the West through to Fife and Edinburgh in the East. Many more rural parts of Scotland—which have some of the lowest levels of population density in the EU—are experiencing population decline, with more than one third of local authority areas projected to have declining populations. Professor Kay told us that Scotland was “not an even playing field” and that some areas were potentially facing much more severe depopulation than others. She pointed out that some of these areas are home to industrial sectors which are particularly reliant on migrant workers, such as tourism, hospitality, agriculture and food processing.8

9.We heard that migrants, particularly those from the EU, made a critical contribution towards sustaining and repopulating rural Scotland. Although the numbers of migrants in rural Scottish communities are low compared to those for London and the South East, they can be a deciding factor in whether fragile communities thrive or fail. Highlands and Islands Enterprise stated that the estimated 13,000 EU citizens living in remote areas of Scotland make a valued contribution to community life, and their presence helps to sustain the critical mass necessary for delivery of public services. The Highlands and Islands face challenges in filling education, health and social care posts, particularly in remote mainland and island locations because of the limited pool of local labour.9

10.Dr Alasdair Allan MSP, Minister for International Development and Europe, Scottish Government, stated:

Where Scotland has distinct needs is demographics and the role of migration in sustaining the working age population. All of Scotland’s population growth over the next 25 years will come through migration. There will be more deaths than births each year. The pension age population in Scotland will grow by 25% by 2041 and the population of over-75s in Scotland will increase by 79%. The crucial point is that the working age population in Scotland is essentially flat, growing by only 1% in the principal projection. In variant population projections, which assume lower migration, Scotland’s working age population actually falls. That is not true for the rest of the UK or the UK as a whole.10

He continued that the Scottish Government’s view was that “Scotland’s population needs are distinct and need a different approach to migration policy.”11

11.The Rt Hon David Mundell MP, Secretary of State for Scotland, agreed that Scotland faced challenges from depopulation and an ageing population, but noted that these were not unique to Scotland:

I think we have to deal with issues of an ageing population; I think we have to deal with issues of ensuring that we have seasonal workers in Scotland. But these issues affect other parts of the United Kingdom and therefore the solutions that can be found to those issues are best found on a United Kingdom-wide basis.12

12.Similarly, the Migration Advisory Committee’s interim report on the role of EEA workers concluded that whilst Scotland faced challenges in maintaining future population growth, other parts of the UK had similar issues:

Scotland, with little or no contribution to population growth from natural change is particularly reliant on migration flows to avoid a return to a declining population. However, other regions and nations of the UK are not too dissimilar. Both the North East of England and Wales have, and are expected to continue to see relatively low levels of natural change and small positive or negative net flows to the rest of the UK. As such, they are also reliant on international migration. Furthermore, comparisons across regions miss the within-region differences, which are often larger than the differences between regions.13

Economic challenges

13.All of our witnesses agreed that attracting and retaining migrant workers to Scotland is essential for Scotland’s economic growth, with a wide range of business sectors and public services in Scotland relying on migrant workers to meet their skills needs. Dr Eve Hepburn told us that migrants had become an important part of the Scottish labour force, and that any future decreases in immigration to Scotland could create skills shortages and difficulties in recruitment to specific sectors.14 Chris Murray, IPPR, pointed out that because business sectors employing relatively high numbers of migrant workers, such as tourism and hospitality, represented a bigger proportion of the Scottish economy, changes to migration flows would have a greater impact on Scotland.15 Dr Greening, Migration Watch, pointed out that the Labour Force Survey indicated that only 10% of the Scottish workforce was non-UK born, compared to 17% of the UK workforce, and that this indicated that Scotland was therefore less dependent on migrant labour.16 That said, Dr Greening told us that Migration Watch did “believe in immigration as a dynamic part of an open economy and society”.17

14.Migrants also play a critical role in supporting the delivery of public services in Scotland. Dr Macaskill, Chief Executive, Scottish Care told us that in care homes, about 68% of social care nurses came from the EEA.18 Shirley Rogers, Director of Health Workforce and Strategic Change, Scottish Government, told us about the challenges of recruiting and retaining Scotland’s health workforce, and the need to continue welcoming workers from the EU, saying that:

400,000 people across Scotland, through the NHS, local government or [private care providers], work in health and social care. That is a fairly whopping proportion of the working population of Scotland. Broadly, 1.5 out of every 10 kids at school at the moment have to be interested in health and social care in order for us to be sustainable at current levels.19

15.We also heard from other sectors who were concerned about how they would meet their labour needs without access to migrant labour. Willie Macleod, Executive Director for Scotland at the British Hospitality Association said that across the whole of the UK the hospitality sector needed 62,000 new employees each year to fill vacancies and sustain anticipated growth in the sector, and that currently this demand was being met largely by EU migration.20 The Food and Drink Federation Scotland told us that migration from the EU was fundamental for its industry and that around 30% of all labour in food and drink manufacturing alone was from the EU.21 NFUS pointed to the role of EU workers in a range of roles which form essential parts of the food supply chain, such as road haulage, abattoirs and egg packing.22 The Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons pointed out that 14% of the 2,252 vets working in Scotland are from the EU.23 In the education sector, around 9% of students at Scottish universities are non-UK EU nationals and EU citizens make up around 17% of academic staff and 25% of research staff. The Scottish Government’s response to the Migration Advisory Committee’s call for evidence on the role of EEA workers in the UK labour market notes that, in 2016, there were about 209,000 EU citizens living in Scotland, representing around 3.9% of the total population.24

16.Mike Park, Chief Executive Officer, Scottish White Fish Producers Association, told us that while the industry’s long-term aspiration was for its fleets to be crewed entirely by a local workforce, this would take at least ten years to achieve, and that in the short to medium term it was likely to rely on non-UK workers from other fishing nations such as Sri Lanka, Indonesia and the Philippines to crew fishing vessels.25 He also noted that the onshore processing sector currently relied on 70% EEA workers and were already finding it difficult to recruit staff to roles such as fish filleting.26

17.In its migration discussion paper Scotland’s Population Needs and Migration Policy, the Scottish Government presents economic modelling data which suggests that Scotland’s future economy is reliant on continued inward migration. It states that if the UK Government were to meet its target to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands, real GDP would fall in Scotland by 9.3% compared to a fall in the rest of the UK of 7.6%.27 Rachel Sunderland, Head of the Migration and Free Movement of People Unit, Scottish Government, told us that “in a scenario where net migration to the UK was reduced to the tens of thousands in line with the UK Government target, Scotland would lose over £10 billion per year in GDP by 2040.”28 The Home Affairs Select Committee, in its report Immigration policy: basis for building consensus, recommended that the Government should replace its net migration target with an evidence-based framework for different types of immigration that takes into account the UK’s needs and its international obligations to accept people, arising from both trade and humanitarian agreements.29

18.The Immigration Minister told us that the net migration target “set a clear direction of travel and has been included in successive manifestos and endorsed by the electorate.” She continued:

I believe that the British people sent us a very clear message during the referendum in 2016 that they want the United Kingdom to have more control over immigration and our borders. I am very conscious that people who come here to work contribute a great deal to our country. They bring significant benefits. However, there is no consent from the British people for uncontrolled immigration.30

19.When asked how this target would be captured in the UK’s post-Brexit immigration policy we did not get a direct response. Instead the Minister said that the UK had “the opportunity through the immigration rules […] to redefine our immigration policy, but it is important that we do that from a position of strength, through evidence.” She continued that this was why the Government had commissioned the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to explore this issue and that she was “very conscious” that there would still be a need for people to come to the UK to work after Brexit, saying:

what I must reflect on is how we do that through the prism of no consent for uncontrolled immigration and a determination to continue in the direction of travel that we are currently on.31

More recently the UK Government has indicated that it may be willing to reconsider the net migration target with the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, saying that he would “think more carefully” about the cap on the number of skilled workers given visas,32 and on 15 June the Home Office announced that foreign doctors and nurses will be excluded from the government’s visa cap.33

20.Migration to Scotland has helped to create a prosperous and diverse nation with a thriving economy and a tolerant, diverse society. We welcome the benefits that migrants have brought to Scotland, and acknowledge the importance of ensuring that future immigration policy enables Scotland to continue to attract people from overseas to work, raise their families and contribute to Scottish society.

21.Scotland faces a number of demographic challenges. The population of more than a third of Scotland’s local authority areas is projected to decline, and future population growth in Scotland is expected to be entirely dependent on inward migration. Like the rest of the UK the population is ageing, and a declining proportion of the population is of working age. None of these challenges are unique to Scotland; however, these problems are especially pronounced in Scotland and must be accounted for in the debate about the future of migration.

22.Reducing migration will have a negative effect on population and economic growth in Scotland, with this in mind we recommend the UK Government reviews its target to reduce migration to the UK. It should also consider how Scotland can increase its share of migrants who come to the UK.

The role of migration in meeting demographic and economic challenges

23.Most witnesses agreed that migration was one of a number of policies which could be used to tackle demographic challenges and skills shortages. Chris Murray, IPPR Scotland, said that some countries with declining or ageing populations were still able to thrive economically and socially,34 and explained that there were many levers that the Government had to use, including skills and investment as well as migration policy.35 Similar points were made during our predecessor Committee’s inquiry into the demography of Scotland. That Committee heard that policies such as investment in broadband infrastructure and in skills and education could help retain native population in rural areas and stimulate economic growth.36

24.Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory, said that whilst migration could be part of a solution to demographic and economic challenges, it was also important to understand the causes of population decline, and not to assume that encouraging more migration would, in itself, be beneficial:

If one of the drivers of population decline is the fact the local economy is not creating jobs, trying to solve the problem by sending more migrants there might not work, because you may end up simply generating higher levels of unemployment and poor integration […] Migration can be part of the solution, but you have to be careful about some of the potential negative impacts as well.37

25.Professor Boswell, Professor of Politics, Edinburgh University, also argued that migration was not a panacea to an ageing population noting that “even sustaining or moderately increasing current levels of net migration could not counter-act population ageing”38 and that other measures, such as raising retirement age or encouraging caregivers to return to work, would also be needed. Similarly, she explained that labour shortages could be addressed by investing in less labour-intensive types of production rather than seeking additional labour from abroad.39

26.A number of these alternative policy levers are the responsibility of the Scottish Government, which also has responsibility for migrant integration policies in Scotland. Professor Boswell noted that an important strand of the Scottish Government’s approach to migration had been to create a proper framework of migrant integration and retention policies.40 COSLA agreed that migrant integration was essential for any successful immigration scheme and said that Scottish local authorities were already carrying out significant work to make their areas attractive places to live and work.41 Professor Kay agreed that the quality of local services, including education, health and housing, was important in terms of attracting and retaining migrants.42 The perception of how welcoming a country is to migrants can also have an impact on its success in attracting people to emigrate to that country, and we heard from members of the Fife Migrants Forum that their own perception of how welcoming the people of Scotland are had influenced their decision to move to Scotland.43 44

27.Rt Hon David Mundell MP, Secretary of State for Scotland said that Ministers recognised the great contribution which generations of migrants had made to the socio-economic wellbeing of Scotland. However, whilst Mr Mundell acknowledged that immigration would continue to make an important contribution to Scotland, he said it was not the only factor in maintaining a healthy, sustainable population and economy in Scotland.45 He added that it was important to understand why people leave Scotland, and how to make Scotland as attractive as possible for people to want to live there.46

28.Immigration is not the only solution to meeting Scotland’s demographic and economic challenges, and both the UK and the Scottish Governments have levers and powers which they can use to grow Scotland’s population and support its economy. However, migration policy is a key part of responding to these challenges, particularly given Scotland’s dependence on immigration for its future. In the following chapter we consider: what lessons can be learnt from the current immigration system, how this might inform the arrangement post-Brexit and the options for increasing Scotland’s voice in how the system operates.

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6 National Records of Scotland, Mid-year Population Estimates Scotland, Mid-2016, April 2017

7 Scottish Government, Scotland’s population needs and migration policy: Discussion paper on evidence, policy and powers for the Scottish Parliament, para 52, February 2018

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9 Highlands and Islands Enterprise (IAS0017)

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13 Migration Advisory Committee, EEA-workers in the UK labour market: Interim Update, para 2.38, March 2018

14 Dr Eve Hepburn, Options for Differentiating the UK’s Immigration System, 2017

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