The UK’s economic relationship with the European Union: The Government’s and Bank of England’s Withdrawal Agreement analyses Contents


Terms of reference

1 Introduction

The inquiry

The analysis produced for the Treasury Committee

2 The Government’s EU exit scenarios

The Government’s international trade model and the difference between absolute and relative scenario forecasting

The Government’s findings and choice of scenarios

White paper model

No Deal

Free Trade Agreement

EEA-only scenario

The Backstop

Sectoral and regional analysis

3 Key assumptions in modelling the economic impact of withdrawing from the European Union


Non-tariff barriers

Brexit opportunities

Free Trade Deals

Regulatory flexibility




Domestic investment

Foreign Direct Investment

4 The short-term impact of EU exit (Bank of England scenarios)

No transition and no deal scenarios

Economic partnership scenarios

5 Fiscal implications of EU withdrawal

6 The impact on financial services

The impact of different withdrawal scenarios on the UK financial services industry


Rule taking

No Deal preparations


Formal minutes


Published written evidence

List of Reports from the Committee during the current Parliament

Published: 11 December 2018