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The noble Lord suggests that a 500,000 signatory petition should be the method by which a referendum is triggered that unpicks this relationship, but the history of petitions shows us that they are perhaps not the most reliable of constitutional tools. I am sure noble Lords are aware that the signatures of Queen Victoria, Sir Robert Peel and the Duke of Wellington appeared on the Chartists final petition. I do not for one moment suggest the noble Earl is advocating fraud such as that, but the method is fraught with difficulty and open to abuse and challenge. How could we possibly justify the use of such a procedure to trigger a process that would have untold costs, monetary and otherwise?
I reaffirm the Governments intention, in accordance with convention, to not seek to block the Bill. However, I very much hope that the noble Earl will not push it to a Second Reading, and force a change in the portraits at Dover House. He may wish to remember Thomas Carlyles warning:
Painful for a person is rebellious independence, only in loving companionship with his associates does a person feel safe.
The noble Earls Bill would be the first step towards the break up of a union in which this Government and, I believe, Parliament and the nation, have absolute faith. Throwing in the towel on a renewed partnership of Parliaments and peoples that has so much to offer is not a road to take.
The Earl of Mar and Kellie: My Lords, first, I thank the Public Bill Office and, in particular,Mr Nick Besly, for helping me to turn my ideas into something that could be presented to Parliament. I also thank all noble Lords who have taken part in the debate.
A recent poll by YouGov identified that 49 per cent of those who answered the poll in Scotland were in favour of political independence, whereas 41 per cent were against, leaving 8 per cent who did not know. Much more significantly, 80 per cent of the same sample believed that sovereignty should be decided as a single issue, not to be bundled into a general election; 12 per cent were against and 8 per cent did not know.
I am also aware that the maverickI am sure that he will not mind being called thatex-Conservative MSP Brian Monteith is currently proposing a referendum on the parliamentary union, believing that disarray among the independence movement would lead to the parliamentary union being retained for a generation. That is a wake-up call to the independence movement. My noble friend wondered about a bicameral parliament of Scotland. I very much doubt that that will happen. Personally, I want to adopt something akin to the Norwegian model, whereby the Storting divides itself into two Houses, the Lagting and the Odelsting, on occasion.
The Minister reminded me about the portrait that my great-grandfather gifted to the then Scottish Office in the 1920s. It is rather fine. However, I have
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I had hoped that we would have a littlediscussion about whether 500,000, or one-eighth of the population, was sufficient to trigger a referendum of this magnitude. I think that opinion is that it would need to be a slightly larger number. I was asked why I did not press forward to connect the Bill directly to a referendum. The answer is that I am trying to respect Westminster's concept of the supremacy of Parliament. This Parliament would have to decide to do it. This Parliament does not take orders from anyonealthough on this issue, I might agree that it should.
As for fraud, in my initial drafts, I included in the provision for the petition that people had to submit not only their name and addresswhich is, apparently, all that the House of Commons requires for a petitionbut their number on the electoral roll. That would be quite a test and would show how serious they were. You could not fob someone off on the doorstep by signing it to get rid of them, because
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Obliquely, the issue of economics arose. One would not approach sovereignty based on an economic case. After all, we made a complete nonsense of joining the euro on that basis. People must want to do it or not. Looking around the North Atlantic, I can see only states that have broken away from unions and have prospered. So I conclude: is there a democratic pathway to political independence under the Crown? I do not think that we yet have one. I regard myself as a unionista person in favour of the Union of the Crownsseeking a better settlement allowing Scotland a foreign policy.
To the noble Lord, Lord Skelmersdale, I must say that there are three parties in Scotland actively seeking independence: the SNP, the Scottish Socialist Party and the Greens. Finally, I hope the House will give the Bill a Second Reading, bearing in mind that there is no Motion from me for an Order of Commitment.
On Question, Bill read a second time.
The Bill was returned from the Commons with amendments and with a privilege amendment; it was ordered that the Commons amendments be printed.
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