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Baroness Finlay of Llandaff: My Lords—
Baroness Finlay of Llandaff: My Lords, I appreciate the Minister's definition of stress but I refer her to the paper that defines stress as a sense of lack of control over one's own destiny; she referred to that paper, which showed higher mortality. Will she explain how the Health and Safety Executive might change attitudes not only in the workplace but across the whole of society to ensure that people have a greater sense of control over their own destiny? Much stress occurs not only in employment—it relates to a sense of a lack of control outside employment.
Baroness Hollis of Heigham: My Lords, the noble Baroness is right in so far as she goes, but the lack of control over one's working conditions is only one component of stress. Some people may prefer a structured environment with clear directions about what to do. I believe that stress is an interplay between the pressures of the workplace and the personality that someone brings to it. Good employers can help to produce a culture that is beneficial not only to the individual but also to the business because it increases productivity, reduces absenteeism, improves turnover and reduces sickness. I am sure that we are all looking for that outcome.
Baroness Sharples: My Lords, is the Minister aware that yesterday I went to have a medical check-up, which is now available to noble Lords as well as to Members of the Commons? One of the points that was accentuated was whether one suffered stress in your Lordships' House!
Baroness Hollis of Heigham: My Lords, I believe that that would depend on which political party one belongs to.
Lord Addington: My Lords, does the Minister agree that, as a result of the Government's many initiatives to get people who have been excluded from work back into work—many of those people are disabled—stress will occur in new areas? Are the Government seeking to ensure that those people will be able to talk to their employers about stress and that employers will be given guidance on how to understand those new areas of stress?
Baroness Hollis of Heigham: My Lords, I am sure that that is right. When employers ask the HSE how best to reduce stress in the workplace, one of its recommendations—apart from having proper grievance procedures and so on—is to interview people on a one-to-one basis when they return from
sickness-related absence to establish how stress can be reduced in future. I am glad that the noble Lord emphasised that mental illness can be created by stress and that the physical conditions that may follow can be as much of an impairment or disability as a physical illness.
Lord Berkeley: My Lords, is my noble friend aware that the Health and Safety Commission required that when the new line between Stirling and Alloway opens, the operating procedures will be to have two signalmen on one shift to process five trains because one signalman cannot pull the levers and deal with the computer? Surely the only stress that those people will suffer will be boredom.
Baroness Hollis of Heigham: My Lords, I am sure that my noble friend will understand if I pass on the specifics of that question. I agree with noble Lords who suggested that if there is one thing worse than over-pressure at work; it is the absence of work altogether.
Economic Growth
2.59 p.m.
Lord Roberts of Conwy asked Her Majesty's Government:
- What was the economic growth rate in the second quarter of 2002 and how does it compare with the second quarter of 2001.
Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, United Kingdom gross domestic product expanded by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2002, compared with 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2001. The United Kingdom economy has performed relatively well during the current global slowdown. Growth last year was the fastest in the G7 and, unlike many of our major competitors, the United Kingdom economy has avoided any declines in output since the beginning of 2001.
Lord Roberts of Conwy: My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord for that reply. Nevertheless, knowing that he will not wish to anticipate the Chancellor's autumn Statement, will he confirm that the Government are facing a shortfall in revenues at a time of increased public expenditure? Does he agree that, if the shortfall is dealt with by further taxation on top of the April increases in national insurance yet to come, then the chances of the economic run-down continuing are very likely, whereas, if the Government cover the shortfall with increased borrowing, at least the Chancellor's golden rule will be maintained?
Lord McIntosh of Haringey: Too right, my Lords! I shall certainly not anticipate the Pre-Budget Report, which will be made by the Chancellor next month.
However, I am a little surprised by what the noble Lord, Lord Roberts, said about an economic run-down. I gave the figures for the first two quarters. Our general experience is that there is a greater increase in gross domestic product in the second half of the year than in the first half. However, none of that affects the fact that the public finances are in an exceptionally good state. In 1997, net debt as a proportion of gross domestic product was 44 per cent; it is now 31 per cent. In fiscal terms, we are in very good shape.
Lord Newby: My Lords, does the Minister accept that over the past three years our share of total EU inward investment has halved and that the level of trade in goods with other EU countries as a percentage of GDP has fallen? Does he further accept that those factors are now adversely affecting our growth rate and will continue to do so until we join the euro-zone?
Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, we are moving a long way from the Question, but we are used to that in this House, are we not? The answer is: no. In the time that has elapsed since the establishment of the euro, it would be far too early to say what our share will be. There are reports of a great increase in trading between different countries within the euro-zone. However, our position still remains to be seen.
Lord Sheldon: My Lords, is it not the case that, due to changes in our economic growth rate, it may not be possible to avoid mirroring what is happening in many other industrial countries? However, the difference is that we have built up a considerable surplus year by year. The proper way to manage that surplus is to ensure that it is available for contra-cyclical changes over the next year or two. Is that not the proper way to manage an economy?
Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, my noble friend is absolutely right. It is because of the hard decisions that we took in the years immediately following 1997 that public finances are now in a healthy state. Because of that, it is possible for us to maintain our position under the golden rule and under our rules on sustainable investment. We are succeeding in doing both those things.
Lord Lamont of Lerwick: My Lords, following the first part of the question raised by the noble Lord, Lord Sheldon, will the Minister say whether he believes that the euro is helping or hindering Germany?
Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, the noble Lord asks whether the euro is helping or hindering Germany. That follows from a Question about our economic growth rate. I do not think so.
Lord Northbrook: My Lords, in view of the poor progress of the economy so far this year, does the
Minister believe that the Chancellor's forecast of economic growth for this year and the next is hopelessly optimistic and, if not, why not?
Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, we make forecasts of economic growth at two-yearly intervals, in contrast with previous governments, who made them less frequently. The next forecast will be made at the time of the Pre-Budget Report.
Lord Saatchi: My Lords, could not anyone with a bank account tell the Government why they will have to admit in a few weeks' time that their figures are wrong? Is that not because in each month this year they have had five times more money going out than they have had coming in?
Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, that is a very nice way of expressing the situation, I must say. Only an advertising man could do that. But the truth is that our fiscal situation is as I described it in my earlier answers. We now have a net debt of just over 30 per cent compared with 40 per cent when we came into office. Under those circumstances, the monthly figures to which the noble Lord, Lord Saatchi, refers have to be seen in perspective.
Lord Peston: My Lords, can my noble friend confirm that he agrees with my noble friend Lord Sheldon? When, because of world forces, an economy moves ahead rather less rapidly than was the case, it would be foolhardy beyond belief to raise taxes and cut public expenditure. What matters is that my right honourable friend the Chancellor has adopted the correct policy. That policy involves considering the situation over the cycle and over the medium term. This is the first time in a great many years that that has happened in the economy. He should not in any circumstances be deflected from that very sensible policy.
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