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Baroness Symons of Vernham Dean: My Lords, I am sure, first of all, that the whole House hopes that there will be no war with Iraq. However, Saddam Hussein's history leads us to believe that, if that sad eventuality were to come about, he is capable of trying virtually anything.
All eventualities must be considered, including everything from a direct attack on the state of Israel to the use of agents and terrorist organisations to perpetrate such attacks. I assure the noble Lord that, as he would expect, all those eventualities are being considered. I am sure that he will agree that it would be unwise for me to say anything further about planning for those eventualities.
"Let me again briefly recapitulate the history of the Iraqi crisis. In 1991, at the conclusion of the Gulf War, the true extent of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction programme became clear. We knew he had used these weapons against his own people, and against a foreign countryIranbut we had not known that in addition to chemical weapons he had
"So on 3rd April 1991, the United Nations passed the first resolution on Saddam and weapons of mass destruction, giving him 15 days to give an open account of all his weapons and to co-operate fully with the United Nations inspectors in destroying them. Fifteen days later he submitted a flawed and incomplete declaration denying that he had biological weapons and giving little information on chemical weapons. It was only four years later, after the defection of Saddam's son-in-law to Jordan, that the offensive biological weapons and the full extent of the nuclear programme were discovered. In all, 17 United Nations resolutions were passed. None was obeyed. At no stage did he co-operate. At no stage did he tell the full truth.
"Finally, in December 1998, when he had begun to obstruct and harass the United Nations inspectors, they withdrew. When they left they said that there were still large amounts of weapons of mass destruction unaccounted for. Since then, the international community has relied on sanctions and the no-fly zones policed by the United States and United Kingdom pilots to contain Saddam. But the first is not proof against Saddam's deception and the second is limited in its impact.
"In 2001, the sanctions were made more targeted. But around three billion dollars a year is illicitly taken by Saddam, much of it for his and his family's personal use. The intelligence is clear: he continues to believe that his weapons of mass destruction programme is essential both for internal repression and for external aggression. It is essential to his regional power. Prior to the inspectors coming back in, he was engaged in a systematic exercise in concealment of weapons. That is the history.
"Finally, last November United Nations Resolution 1441 declared Saddam in material breach and gave him a 'final opportunity' to comply fully, immediately and unconditionally with the UN's instruction to disarm voluntarily. The first step was to give an open, honest declaration of what weapons of mass destruction he had, where they were, and how they would be destroyed. On 8th December, he submitted the declaration denying that he had any WMDa statement that not a single member of the international community seriously believes. There have been two UN inspectors' reports. Both have reported some co-operation on process. Both have denied progress on substance.
'Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity afforded to it in Resolution 1441'.
"There is no complexity about Resolution 1441. I ask all reasonable people to judge for themselves. After 12 years, is it not reasonable that the UN inspectors have unrestricted access to Iraqi scientiststhat means no tape recorders, no minders, no intimidation, and interviews outside Iraq as provided for by Resolution 1441? So far, this simply is not happening.
"Is it not reasonable that he provides evidence that he has destroyed 8,500 litres of anthrax that he admitted possessing, and the 2,000 kilos of biological growth material, enough to produce over 26,000 litres of anthrax?
"Is it not reasonable that Saddam accounts for up to 360 tonnes of bulk chemical warfare agent, including one and a half tonnes of VX nerve agents, 3,000 tonnes of precursor chemicals, and over 30,000 special munitions?
"To those who say that we are rushing to war, I say this. We are now 12 years after Saddam was first told by the United Nations to disarm; nearly six months after President Bush made his speech to the UN accepting the UN route to disarmament; nearly four months on from Resolution 1441; and even now, today, we are offering Saddam the prospect of voluntary disarmament through the United Nations.
"Twelve years of bitter experience teaches that. And if he refuses to co-operateas he is refusing nowand we fail to act, what then? Saddam in charge of Iraq; weapons of mass destruction intact; the will of the international community set at nothing; the UN tricked again; and Saddam hugely strengthened and emboldeneddoes anyone truly believe that that will mean peace? And when we turn to deal with other threats, where will our authority
"I have read the memorandum put forward by France, Germany and Russia in response to our UN resolution. It is to be welcomed at least in these respects. It accepts that Saddam must disarm fully. It accepts that he is not yet co-operating fully. Indeed, not a single member of the EU who spoke at the summit in Brussels on 17th February disputed the fact of his non-co-operation.
"But the call is for more timeup to the end of July at least. They say that the time is necessary 'to search out' the weapons. At the core of this proposition is the notion that the task of the inspectors is to enter Iraq to find the weapons, to sniff them out, as one member of the European Council put it. That is emphatically not the inspectors' job.
"They are not a detective agency. And even if they were, Iraq is a country with a land mass roughly the size of France. The idea that the inspectors could conceivably sniff out the weapons and documentation relating to them, without the help of the Iraq authorities, is absurd. That is why 1441 called for Iraq's active co-operation.
"The issue is not time. It is will. If Saddam is willing genuinely to co-operate, then the inspectors should have up to July, and beyond July; as much time as they want. If he is not willing to co-operate, then, equally, time will not help. We will be just right back where we were in the 1990s.
"And, of course, Saddam will offer concessions. This is a game with which he is immensely familiar. As the threat level rises, so the concessions are eked out. At present he is saying that he will not destroy the al-Samoud missiles that the inspectors have found were in breach of Resolution 1441. But he will, under pressure, claiming that this proves co-operation. Does anyone think that he would be making any such concessions, that indeed the inspectors would be within 1,000 miles of Baghdad, were it not for US and UK troops massed on his doorstep? What is his hope? Is it to play for time, to drag the process out until the attention of the international community wanes, for the troops go, and the way is again clear for him?
"One further point. The purpose in our acting is disarmament. But the nature of Saddam's regime is relevant in two ways. First, weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a regime of this brutality is especially dangerous because Saddam has shown that he will use them. Secondly, I know the innocent as well as the guilty die in a war. But do not let us forget the 4 million Iraqi exiles, the thousands of children who die needlessly every year due to Saddam's impoverishment of his countrya country which in 1978 was wealthier than Portugal or Malaysia but now is in ruins, 60 per cent of its people on food aid. Let us not forget the tens of thousands imprisoned, tortured or executed by his barbarity every year. The innocent die every day in Iraq, victims of Saddam, and their plight should also be heard.
"And I know the vital importance in all of this of the Middle East peace process. The European Council last week called for the early implementation of the Roadmap. Terror and violence must end. So must settlement activity. We welcomed President Arafat's statement that he will appoint a Prime Minister, an initiative following from last month's London conference on Palestinian reform. I shall continue to strive in every way for an even-handed and just approach to the Middle East peace process.
"At stake in Iraq is not just peace or war. It is the authority of the United Nations. Resolution 1441 is clear. All we are asking is that it now be upheld. If it is not, the consequences will stretch far beyond Iraq. If the UN cannot be the way of resolving this issue, that is a dangerous moment for our world. That is why over the coming weeks we will work every last minute we can to reunite the international community and disarm Iraq through the United Nations. It is our desire and still our hope that this can be done".
Lord Strathclyde: My Lords, I thank the noble and learned Lord the Leader of the House for repeating the Statement. I begin on a slightly sour note. The House will remember that at the beginning of last week the noble and learned Lord the Leader of the House refused a Statement on the European Union Council meeting on the basis that, if we had taken it, it would have pre-empted the Prime Minister. Can the noble and learned Lord tell us why there is nothing in the Statement on that meeting of EU members and candidate countries? Indeed, this morning in another place the Prime Minister was silent on those matters. Thus the noble and learned Lord and the House have been ill served. Would the noble and learned Lord be willing to lay a document before the House setting out the Government's reactions to the EU summit, the statement of the Vilnius 10 and the other diplomatic events of that weekend?
Today the noble and learned Lord has repeated a grave Statement, but we on these Benches at least support the stand that the Government are taking. Saddam's defiance of the United Nations has lasted far too long, while his appetite to secure and hold weapons of mass destruction is proven. He is still hungry for them. Saddam's brutality and his willingness to attack others and then to use such weapons is a matter of record. The world community cannot bury its head in the sand and evade those truths. They should be as evident in Paris today as they are bitterly remembered in Tehran and Kuwait.
I respect greatly the fears of those who oppose war. No one wants war, with all its ugliness and uncertainty. But the cost of peace on Saddam's terms is too high. War will be less likely if the international community shows a united resolve and draws a line under some of the self-indulgent divisiveness of recent weeks.
We agree with the Prime Minister that the issue is not a matter of time; it is a matter of huge substance. It is a question of disarmament and peace or of defiance and war. That choice is for Saddam. If he makes the wrong choice, it is a matter in which, in the name of world order, we must prevail. If Saddam successfully defies the UN; if he successfully faces down the resolution of the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy and all the other nations that have called on him to disarm, where then is world stability and the authority of the United Nations?
The Prime Minister is right to ask those questions. We shall support him so long as he acts resolutely against terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. Does the noble and learned Lord agree that he can take great satisfaction in the praise of the Prime Minister from President Bush and Prime Minister Berlusconi who so closely share his sense of what needs to be done?
Does the Leader of the House also share my disappointment that the Prime Minister's lead heregiven with great integrity in the face of the many doubts that existhas not been matched by Chancellor Shroeder in Germany? Does he accept that the divisions displayed in Brussels last week and the arrogant dressing-down of 10 sovereign European democracies by M. Chirac render any idea of a common European diplomatic policy increasingly an utter pipe-dream?
Is there any recent evidence of active links between Saddam and the regime in North Korea? Can the noble and learned Lord tell the House what is the latest position on the resolution of the Turkish Government on facilitating and supporting operations in Iraq, should they be needed? In the event of war, are agreements in place with Iran and Syria for the proper treatment of military personnel should they wish to seek refuge in those countries? When do the Government expect the resolution tabled with the United States and Spain to come to a vote, and can he report on any initial reactions from Security Council members?
If the noble and learned Lord cannot answer those questions today, perhaps the noble Baroness, Lady Symons of Vernham Dean, will be able to take them up in the debate which is to take place tomorrow. Perhaps she will also consider whether it is worth setting out the provisions that will be made for humanitarian aid in the event of war.
Over the next weeks and months, how will the Government advance the search for a solution to the Palestinian problem, in our view an indispensable strand of policy alongside any conflict with Iraq? Finally, does the noble and learned Lord share President Bush's view that if Saddam's defiance continues, no further United Nations resolution, however desirable, is strictly necessary and that Resolution 1441 gives us the power to act even in the event of a French veto?
I welcome the careful and cautious approach of the Prime Minister. Saddam has been given time, plenty of time, to opt for peace. He must take the chance and I hope that he does so. But if he does not, we must be prepared to face the difficult and dangerous days that will follow. As we speak, far away, our Armed Forces are training for an eventuality that both we and they hope will never come. They must know of the confidence that this House places in them. I ask the noble and learned Lord, through his colleagues, to send to them a message of our good wishes and support. The House may be divided on many things, but never on that.
Baroness Williams of Crosby: My Lords, I too wish to thank the noble and learned Lord the Leader of the House for repeating the Statement made in another place. We are glad that the Government have decided to take up the offer made from these Benches of time from their own allocated debates for the purpose of a debate on Iraq which we believe to be well timed and extremely important. We are also grateful that the Government have decided to take the opportunity for a debate in both Houses.
In that respect we share the view, not only of France and Germany but of Russia and China, that it is still possible to give a little more time for the inspectors to reach a conclusion about the work that they are doing. We are concerned that the placing of this resolution at this time will go some way towards pre-empting the report from Hans Blix and Mr Muhammad al-Baradi scheduled for 28th February. We believe that it would have been better for that report to have been allowed to come forward, especially given some of the indications that Iraq is beginning to move.
Among those indications is the acceptance by Iraq, at long last, of air surveillance on a regular basis across the whole of Iraq. The noble and learned Lord the Leader of the House will know that that air surveillance has only recently been put in place and that some of the measures for using and assessing the data from it have not yet been completed. Many people do not fully recognise how slowly the full sophistication of the measures of inspection has been put in place. It is fair to say that it is probably only over the past couple of weeks that the full resources have been made available to the inspectors to complete their work.
The Russian Foreign Minister, together with Mr Putin, sent a special envoy to Iraq, who has reported back that in his view, given what has been said by its Government, Iraq will now co-operate fully with the United Nations. I do not know if that is true. All I know is that a serious representative of a serious country has reported his belief that that may well be possible. We on these Benches believe that the implications of a war are so grave that we should take every conceivable step to bring about disarmament in Iraq without resort to military action.
There has been some confusion which I hope the noble and learned Lord will help to clear up. It is still not absolutely clear whether the UK Government's major objective is disarmamenta view that we fully shareor whether it is regime change, which is not an objective recognised under international law. I mention this because two sets of justifications have been referred toone in regard to regime change and one in regard to disarmament. Important and welcome as it would be to see a change of government in Iraq, we believe that it is important to stick to a single message so that people are not confused.
Perhaps I may ask the noble and learned Lord one or two questions. Does he, as a distinguished lawyer, regard the combination of the first and second resolutions as endorsing future military action without any further resolution being required?
Can the noble and learned Lord say anything about the proposed command structure under which United Kingdom troops would operate? In that context, the former leader of the Conservative Party in another place today implied that the United States had been the sole command structure since the end of the Second World War. That is not correct. Joint command has been the pattern in NATO and in the wars fought by or within the structures of NATO since the Second World War. It is therefore of vital importance that we learn whether a United States command or a joint command would operate in the case of any military action against Iraq.
Can the noble and learned Lord say anything about the future administration of a defeated Iraq and whether it would be a United Nations administration or an administration conducted by either the United States or by what is sometimes called, rather oddly, the coalition of the willing?
Does the noble and learned Lord regard the use of financial incentives such as the refusal of aid or an increase of aid as being valid ways of persuading other countries to support a resolution with which, in other circumstances, they might not be in agreement? Can he say whether or not the United Kingdom Government would wish to see such measures used by themselves?
Lord Williams of Mostyn: My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, for offering, without any shred of party advantage, good wishes and support for the Prime Minister in what is, on any judgmentagree or disagree with himan exceptionally difficult time. I respond in this way. Agree or disagree with him, it is perfectly plain to any independent, fair-minded commentator that he is basing his stand on principle and not on political advantage. Agree with him or not, many would consider that to be a rather attractive aspect of his tenure of the post of prime minister at this time.
The noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, asked a perfectly reasonable question about various documentation. As always, my right honourable friend Jack Straw has not pre-empted but pre-thought about the question. There is a useful Command Paper, No. 5769, in the Printed Paper Office where one can find a number of the documents referred to by the noble Lord, and more, at pages 89 to 91 inclusive. There is the European Council declaration in Copenhagen in December 2002; the General Affairs and External Relations Council conclusions in Brussels on 27th January this year; and then there is the European Council conclusions on Iraq in Brussels on 17th February, which the noble Lord particularly asked for.
Of course tomorrow was supposed to have been a Liberal Democrat Back-Bench day. We were perfectly happy to have the debate, making it plain, as I repeat now, that the day given up is not lost forever; it will have to be repaid. So the Government have been a shade more generous than the noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, and the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, may have hinted.
I agree with the noble Lord, Lord StrathclydeI hope that in doing the work that I do for your Lordships I demonstrate thisthat it is very important that Parliament is kept fully informed, first because it is Parliament and, secondly, because any government in these circumstances would want, if at all possible, the willing, freely-given support of a Parliament that is as well informed as it is practical to make it.
The noble Lord, Lord Strathclyde, asked me to comment on Chancellor Schroeder and President Chirac. All their actions, statements, devices and stratagems are essentially a matter of taste and judgment. The Prime Minister of this country has shown immaculate taste and impeccable judgment.
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