Memorandum by Paul Spare MSc CEng FIMechE
FEI—Energy Consultant
INTRODUCTION
1. The basic hypothesis that increasing
the efficiency of energy processes on the micro scale can reduce
consumption on the macro scale is fallacious. It is a lamentable
failure in political education that this gross misunderstanding
is repeated regularly and remains a fundamental policy of some
government agencies. Substantial and varied evidence is available
to demonstrate that increased efficiency increases consumption.
As this deduction is sometimes counter-intuitive, it may be difficult
for non-engineers to accept, but this error needs to be publicised
more widely if the delusion is to be disposed of once and for
all. The following evidence is relevant.
THE INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION
2. When the first steam-powered pumping
plants were built over 200 years ago, their efficiency was no
more than about 1 per cent—measured as useful work output
divided by thermal energy input. Gradually, improvements in design
(starting with the separate condenser), better materials and the
thermodynamic cycle saw this increase to about 30 per cent. The
result was not a reduction in the quantity of fuel used, but an
increase by a factor of thousands over a period of 100 years,
as the new machines cut the cost of pumping mine water and encouraged
new enterprises to take advantage of cheaper coal.
ELECTRICITY
3. The end of the 19th century saw the start
of large scale electricity generation. The generators were very
small—only tens of MW. Most power was still generated form
coal-burning steam engines, with heating by coal and lighting
by gas. Electricity was very desirable and demand increased—replacing
steam and gas in many applications. Coal consumption did not reduce
however, since electricity stimulated industrial activity. As
productivity increased, more coal was needed for fresh outlets.
MOTOR VEHICLES
4. Similar evidence can be found with the
private car with its internal combustion engine. Forty years ago,
engines were very often less than 1 litre capacity. After the
seventies oil crisis, EC directives and similar legislation have
forced increased engine efficiency and reduced fuel consumption.
According to the incorrect government premise, total fuel consumption
should have reduced, but the opposite has occurred. Reduced fuel
consumption has enabled customers to buy cars with larger engines
and achieve greater convenience for the same fuel consumption.
Average engine sizes have increased, with basic vehicles having
1.5 to 2 litre engines and a high proportion of large cars having
engines of 3 litres and above. Transport is now the sector where
greenhouse gas emissions are most out of control and where there
is the clearest evidence that higher efficiency increases energy
demand.
WINTER FUEL
ALLOWANCE
5. The Government has provided a £200
allowance to underprivileged households for several years. The
purpose of the allowance is to provide enough money for people
to keep warm in the winter—ie to remove the restraint that
would normally stop them from buying more fuel because of its
high cost. The same result would be achieved if their appliances
were to be made more efficient; the relative cost of their fuel
would go down and they would be inclined to buy more—as
with any commodity where demand is elastic.
INTERIM SUMMARY
6. Increased efficiency will always reduce
the net cost of the utility and attract marginal consumers. Any
consumers that do reduce their fuel use will have extra money
available to buy new goods and services that will in their turn
consume more fuel and energy. This process can be seen in all
economies. As states industrialise and develop more advanced technologies,
their per capita energy consumption increases; it does not decline.
AREAS FOR
REDUCTION
7. According to the latest DTI energy statistics,
transport is the largest final energy consumption sector, at 56
Mtoe (p 9 of UK Energy In Brief—July 2004). The other three
sectors are: Domestic 47.9 Mtoe; Industry 34.6 Mtoe; Services
19.5 Mtoe. This total of 158 Mtoe is an increase of about 15 per
cent since 1980. If an attempt is being made to reduce consumption,
it is most beneficial to start with the largest contributor. Unfortunately,
that is transport—the sector that is specifically excluded
from the work of the Committee.
8. Looking at electricity, a greater change
can be seen. Consumption has increased by 44 per cent since 1980
and by 65 per cent since 1970. The Industrial, Services and
Domestic sectors have similar shares.
9. There are financial pressures on the
industrial and services companies to reduce any costs ( energy
is no exception) to improve profitability. Companies in these
sectors are approached as corporate units and although more encouragement
may be needed, regimes exist to provide advice and assistance.
Let us therefore consider the domestic sector, where energy use
has grown steadily, so that it is the largest consumer of electricity,
but where the position is far more fragmented.
THE DOMESTIC
SECTOR
10. The use of electricity in the domestic
sector is spread over a multitude of machines, lighting, heating,
entertainment and gadgets. The consumption of individual appliances
will be very small in many cases, although the aggregate is large.
Can new technology improve the efficiency of the equipment? It
would take an enormous R&D effort to reduce the consumption
of this vast range of equipment, much of which is changed every
few years. Even if improvements could be made, consumers cannot
be forced to buy the most efficient. Other factors affect the
choices people make when selecting equipment. A huge number of
appliances are imported from the Far East, North and South America
as well as the EC. We may have little or no control to force foreign
manufactures to improve their products.
11. The cost of electricity has been reduced
in recent years, so there is less incentive to select economical
equipment. The average bill is of the order of £300-£400
per year. Depreciation on a new family car, by comparison may
be £4,000 per year. Reducing electricity bills by 10 or 20
per cent may require massive changes in behaviour, but will bring
little financial benefit to a household. I know from my own experience
and that of other engineers in the energy field that bombarding
households with appeals to turn off lights and unattended equipment
meets with very little success.
POWER GENERATION
FUELS
12. By far the greatest improvement to CO2
production would be brought about by the replacement of coal or
gas[en rule]fired power stations by thermal nuclear plants. The
burning of a premium fuel such as natural gas is a particularly
myopic and destructive choice. I advised against the use of natural
gas for electricity generation over 20 years ago, but short[en
rule]term thinking overcame this logic and North Sea supplies
are already in decline. Coal is a dirty fuel, but at the present
time there is little other demand for it and as an indigenous
resource, is very valuable in the face of political interruptions
to oil supplies. Reversing the "Dash for Gas" does however
make much sense.
13. In 2003, gas provided the fuel for 38
per cent of electricity generation. The thermal efficiency when
used in this process may be about 45 per cent. Electricity took
about 30 per cent of the gas consumed—325 TWh about 1 trillion
ft3 - producing about 40 million tons of CO2 . This
use of gas for electricity was almost as much as the domestic
sector—386 TWh. So the life of North Sea gas for domestic
use could be almost doubled if gas[en rule]fired electricity generation
were to cease. More particularly, when used in domestic fires
and boilers, the thermal efficiency can reach 85 per cent, so
that the release of the same quantity of CO2 would
take place over twice the time period. This needs to be a complementary
policy to the building of new nuclear power stations.
EFFICIENCY CRITERIA
14. With regard to the interaction between
energy efficiency and gross output of the economy, a certain amount
of caution is needed or the wrong conclusions may be drawn. If
the mix of economic activities remains generally the same over
a period of years, then if GDP increases at a faster rate than
energy use, it can be safely concluded that efficiency is improving.
The situation in the UK over the last 25 years has departed from
this norm. Industries such as engineering and manufacturing have
been in steady decline as consultancy/service industries have
expanded. The former sectors use heavy machinery and are energy
intensive; the latter sector is not. An increase in domestic product
involving mainly office activities would be accompanied by a reduction
in energy use and hence an apparent improvement in energy intensity,
but this could exaggerate the real gains in energy efficiency.
October 2004
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