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Moved, That this House takes note of the report of the European Union Committee on Further Enlargement of the EU: Threat or Opportunity (53rd report, Session 2005-06, HL Paper 273).—(Lord Grenfell.)
6.10 pm
Lord Renton of Mount Harry: My Lords, it was a great pleasure to serve on the EU Select Committee for four years under the chairmanship of the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, and the report that we are discussing and looking at tonight was an investigation undertaken under his chairmanship. He has spoken tonight in a way that, as all noble Lords will agree, showed great competence, thoroughness and looking at all the different angles involved in the question of how far membership of the European Union should go. It is a privilege to follow him on this subject.
The report is indeed competent and thoughtful. We noted with satisfaction the growth in the economies of the countries that have recently joined the EU. That is well catalogued in some of the appendices to our report. We appreciated the expectations of Bulgaria and Romania. When we were investigating they were still two or three months away from joining, but it was clear how much they were looking forward to and preparing for it. But, when we turn to further enlargement, that was the difficult part of the report. We considered countries that used to be members of the Soviet Union; for example, Ukraine. We considered Croatia and the other Western Balkan countries and of course we considered Turkey, the most difficult of all. Was the EU, already
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For the Ukraine and the other ex-Soviet Union countries our conclusion was that that could wait; there was no one pressing at the door and therefore we did not have to hurry. However, as the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, has just said, Turkey was difficult. I make it covered in our report by three more paragraphs than the noble Lord; it is paragraph numbers 205 to 228 and it forms a large part of our report and of the appendices to it.
In summary, we believe that it is in both Turkey’s and the EU’s best interests that accession negotiations be progressed and should proceed. But six months have passed since our report was published and in that time Turkey has recently suffered difficulties about the future presidency. There is a rise of political Islam in Turkey and it is not clear how the Turkish people themselves intend at this stage to proceed to deal with that. Most of all, there has been the arrival of Nicolas Sarkozy as president of France. The noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, quoted one recent remark about him from a British newspaper; I should like to quote another. In its leader yesterday on the TV debate last week between Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal the Times repeated comments that Sarkozy made in that debate. Sarzoky believes that Turkish membership of the European Union would spell,
The Times added that it thought that that was mistaken judgment, but that that was Sarkozy’s judgment. Equally, in the Times yesterday, a spokesman for Angela Merkel said:
“In what is one of the crucial phases for Europe, it is important to continue the close, trusting and intensive co-operation between Germany and France”.
That surely means that we have to think carefully in Britain about what the next steps of our approach to the European Union should be. If there is to be a powerful alliance between France and Germany, between Chancellor Angela Merkel and the new president Nicolas Sarkozy, do we want to be part of that tripartite alliance or are we prepared to stand away from it, to be alone with some of the smaller countries but not in partnership with France and Germany? I suspect that this is a moment when Her Majesty’s Government must pause and think carefully on what their next step should be.
The issues of reducing the number of areas subject to veto by a single country and of a modified but much simpler written constitution are ones that will be debated in the future whether we like it or not. I do not think that at this stage we are clear in our own
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6.17 pm
Lord Roper: My Lords, it is an indication of the effectiveness of the chairman of the Select Committee that he was able to arrange that we could have a debate on this topic on Europe Day. It is obviously useful that we should have a chance to celebrate what has been one of the real achievements of the European Union in this century, the fifth range of enlargement. I also want to say how much I welcomed the Government’s response to our report because it picked up and in almost every respect agreed with the points made by the Select Committee. I regret, as the report does, that less was done in 2004 to reinforce not only in this country but throughout the whole of the European Union the remarkable achievement we had made in making sure that there was an enlargement first to the 10 countries and then to 12—the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell. To some extent, that enlargement in 2004, finalised by the addition of Bulgaria and Romania at the beginning of this year, marked the end of the 20th century. It was a significant point in the historical development of our continent.
Despite its overall success I should like to say how much I agreed with two points made by the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, in his remarks about flaws in that enlargement. First, we may have made a mistake over Cyprus. Failing to ensure that it had solved its internal problems before entry may have been a mistake, but we have to remember that at the time the European Union was possibly faced with the risk of Greek action to prevent any enlargement unless Cyprus was allowed to come in. However, it was a very unsatisfactory solution, and, as we can see in the consequences for Turkish accession, we are suffering from the decisions we took at that time.
The second point made by the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, with which I concur, concerned the mistake—this applies particularly to the cases of enlargement to Bulgaria and Romania—of fixing target dates. The announcement of target dates in advance removed the leverage the European Union would otherwise have had to ensure adequate judicial administrative reform before accession. Certainly, recent developments and instability in Romania’s political structure since enlargement are worrying.
Before going on to look in more detail at the issues of the next round of enlargement to the western Balkans and Turkey, we should remember the members of the European Economic Area and Switzerland, four further countries—the others are Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein—that could all
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Politically, the situation in the western Balkans has become probably more complex and more difficult than last year, when we were considering the countries en bloc in our report. I totally agree with what was said by the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell: the Thessaloniki commitment of the European Union to the countries of the western Balkans must be maintained. We are pleased that Croatia is making such significant progress. The European Union Committee recently had an opportunity to hear the ambassador from Croatia, who was able to give us evidence of the progress being made. When we go beyond Croatia, however, we begin to find problems. I hope that the Minister will tell us why there has been a delay in opening negotiations with Macedonia, even though it was agreed that that country should have candidate status.
In two of the other smaller countries, things seem to be going somewhat better. The technical negotiations are complete on the stabilisation and association agreement with Montenegro, and Commissioner Rehn and the Prime Minister initialled it on 15 March 2007. It looks as if Montenegro is moving in the right direction. Similarly, although Albania has a long way to come and has a number of difficult internal political problems at the moment, there is slow but steady progress.
It is when we come to the remaining three countries in the western Balkans that we really have some difficulties. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, the situation has probably slowed down since we considered the matter last year. A Government has still not been formed. There will be a replacement for Dr Schwarz-Schilling as High Representative, but there are still noises from Mr Dodic in Republika Srpska suggesting that he will want to see the knock-on effect of a Kosovo agreement. We should obviously continue to work with Bosnia-Herzegovina, but the progress will be slow. It is necessary that the option of membership is maintained.
Serbia, if anything, is more difficult. The domestic politics are depressing. The news yesterday that the parliament has elected a speaker from the Radical party suggested that the rather more democratic parties were not able to hang together even to choose a speaker for their parliament. It is a paradox: if there is a country in the western Balkans that, in terms of its administrative structure and economic readiness, could be a member and begin negotiations relatively quickly, it is Serbia. The stabilisation and association agreement is virtually negotiated. None the less, it is difficult to be optimistic, given the continued “ambiguity”, to be polite, of Serbian attitudes regarding General Mladic and the failure to deal seriously with those who are protecting him.
The only grounds for optimism are that if a decision is made in the United Nations in the next few
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Turkey is much more difficult even than the western Balkans. I support the view in our report that we should look forward to the continuation and, we hope, the completion of negotiations with Turkey. Since we completed the report, however, I have become more aware of a need for us in this country to have a dialogue with our partners in other European countries trying to deal with the fears and misgivings that exist in other member states about Turkish membership. It is no use Britain just appearing as a country that is in favour of enlargement for enlargement’s sake; we have to make the argument for why Turkish membership would be to the advantage of the European Union, and I am not sure we do that enough at the moment. We need to look at that.
I am less worried than some about the election of Nicolas Sarkozy. It is likely to be at least 10 years before Turkish negotiations are continued, and while some prime ministers remain for 10 years, many of them do not do so for much more than that. There may well be a different president of France in office when we come to the conclusion of the negotiations.
Here perhaps I am wrong, but I take a different view on the question of the current debate between the secularists and the political parties within Turkey. This is a dilemma in the development of Turkish democracy that is bound to occur, and needs to. The debate may be healthy for those in Turkey if they are able to work out a new and more appropriate balance—at least, I would like to think so.
In our report we referred to the European neighbourhood policy, which is sometimes suggested as an alternative to membership of the European Union. It would be a mistake to see it in that way. In some countries—those in North Africa, for example—it is a sensible alternative, but for those who are European neighbours it should be seen as a situation where they can work, modernise, improve and perhaps adapt themselves so that they become valid candidates for membership. I believe that we could see, not necessarily in my lifetime but perhaps in the next 20 to 30 years, European Union membership for the Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. They should not be excluded, nor should they automatically be offered membership at this stage.
This is an important report. It points the way to a number of the areas of policy that we in this country have to take forward in the development of the Union in the years to come.
6.30 pm
Lord Clinton-Davis: My Lords, I congratulate my noble friend Lord Grenfell on his thoughtful and wide-ranging speech about the future of the European Community. He has presented certain recommendations that are embraced in the report and which we ought to take seriously.
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The committee has undertaken a monumental and invaluable task. However, it is crucial that we should face up to the challenges and advantages which could accrue from the European Union’s enlargement. Before saying anything else, I should declare an interest. I had the honour to be a European Commissioner from 1985 to 1989. In that respect, I owe a great deal to two Members of the House. The first being the noble Lord, Lord Williamson, who I met before taking office—in 1984, I think—when he had moved from the Ministry of Agriculture to the Cabinet Office. He later became a most successful Secretary-General of the European Commission. I also owe a great deal to the noble and learned Lord, Lord Howe of Aberavon. He displayed an unstinting interest in the Commission’s activities, something which I could not say of all members of the then Conservative Government.
When the European Union was established, it was never intended to be a union of 12, still less of 27, or more, nations. However, it was designed—and in this regard has succeeded—to offer sound economic advice and, coupled with that, social progress. It stood for durable and strong values and ensured that Europe’s voice was heard when and where it counted.
As I have said, the European Union has largely succeeded but it has inevitably also encountered failure. Its principal success has been to establish peace over a wide area, one in which war was, all too often, a debilitating factor. It has also played a vital part in bringing democracy to the lives of so many where dictatorship of the right or of the alleged left was often the order of the day.
Enlargement brings its own problems but it also has immense rewards, which are insufficiently voiced by those in power and, as a consequence, are not felt enough by the people living in the various countries of the European Union.
In contrast to Euro-sceptic views, the United Kingdom has enjoyed huge benefits in trade, exports and investment from other countries within and without the European Union, all of which have grown exponentially and that trend persists. The UK, together with Ireland and Sweden, has benefited enormously from large employment growth and has accrued immense advantages in the development of the single market. In that regard, I say, in passing, how much is owed to my then colleague, the late Lord Cockfield. In three months—it took him only three months—he went from being a Euro-sceptic of the highest, or, should I say, the lowest, order, to being a valued member of the Commission.
In tackling international crime, the UK has enjoyed co-operation from other countries, but this is especially marked between the UK and other EU members. The UK has fully participated in environmental schemes and has helped make Europe’s contribution so much more meaningful. We face enormous challenges in that respect, especially regarding climate change. However, the leadership being shown by our country is of great value, not only to the European Union, but also more widely than that.
The most intractable problem confronting the UK and the EU is the possible accession of Turkey, of
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Further enlargement is key to the EU’s continued progress. However, I emphasise—as does the report and the Government’s response—that this has to be a two-way process. It will never be easy to manage a union of 27—perhaps more—member states but the European Union’s team, led by Mr. Barroso, is proving capable of achieving a great deal. As a country, we should actively participate in this endeavour and not simply snipe from the sidelines.
6.40 pm
Lord Cobbold: My Lords, I add my congratulations to the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, and his committee on this excellent and informative report. Having sponsored a debate on Turkish membership of the Union in your Lordships’ House in December 2004, I wish to focus my brief remarks on that issue. As the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, stated, the report concludes in paragraph 293:
“Whatever the hesitation and hostility hanging over Turkey’s accession negotiations, we believe that it is in both Turkey’s and the EU’s best interests that the accession negotiations be pursued in good faith and with a will to bring them to a successful conclusion”.
The report deals with all the pros and cons of Turkish membership and rejects the idea of a privileged partnership as an alternative to full membership. But let us suppose that the Cyprus issue is resolved, that Turkey manages to maintain its secular status and to meet the Copenhagen criteria, and that full membership is finally achieved at some moment in the future. The European Union will then be changed in three important respects.
With a population, by then, of around 100 million, Turkey will be the largest member of the Union, which will have all sorts of implications for management and voting strength. It will also have more Members of the European Parliament than Germany, France or the UK. Secondly, given free movement of labour, there will inevitably be a substantial migration from Turkey to the west, and thus a substantial increase in the Muslim population of existing member states. Thirdly, Turkey’s geographical location takes the Union beyond the boundaries of Europe and links it more directly with the problems of the Middle East.
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These are major changes and involve huge uncertainties. It is easy to see why, for some, the risks outweigh the proposed benefits. But, accepting the risks, we must agree with the conclusions of the report that it is in the best interests of both parties, at this stage, to pursue the negotiations in good faith.
6.42 pm
Lord Borrie: My Lords, I was for a period a member of the European Union Committee, during which time I developed a considerable appreciation of my fellow members—the officials, the advisers and, above all, the chairman, then, as now, my noble friend Lord Grenfell. I am currently only a member of Sub-Committee E, which deals with law and institutions, but I try to keep up with more general EU matters through such reports as this one on enlargement.
In the early years of the EC and the EU, the approach to enlargement was appropriately cautious and gradual. Then came 2004 and the major addition, all in one go—a grand slam, as some people called it—of 10 new states. The increase in population, however, was relatively modest. But it was a tremendous breakthrough, particularly into countries of eastern Europe that had not long before been locked into the totalitarian regimes of the Soviet empire. That year was 15 years after the end of the Berlin Wall, giving those countries some limited exposure to democratic freedoms, the rule of law, economic liberalism and the enhancement of human rights.
I am doubtful about some of the countries admitted in 2004, in terms of their adherence to the principles that I have just mentioned, and about the latest two countries to accede, in January 2007—Bulgaria and Romania. I have graver doubts about further enlargement, particularly the enlargement covered by the noble Lord, Lord Cobbold. Somewhat contrary to the report, I believe that it is perhaps time for a pause—a period of contemplation for the absorption process to demonstrate clearer adherence across the European Union as it exists to European values and more positive results from the enlargements of 2004 and 2007. One particular difficulty has been referred to by at least two speakers. It has even been suggested by those who very much favoured the 2004 enlargement that perhaps one aspect, affecting the island of Cyprus, may have been worsened by the accession to the European Union of Greek Cyprus only, so soon after the Greek rejection of the Annan plan for reunification of the island.
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