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I should like to mention something which has not been specifically mentioned, although I recall references to the institutions of the EU needing some attention. Each of the new members, no matter how small, is entitled to an EU Commissioner. So the Baltic states have between them three Commissioners, while Britain and, for that matter, Germany and France, have only one each. If each of the Balkan states formerly comprising Yugoslavia were admitted to membership, they would have six or seven Commissioners between them. Even the greatest enthusiast for European Union enlargement would
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Since about 2000, there has been a tremendous momentum favouring enlargement among those who wanted to join but were not members and among the existing members. However, there is a risk of it dissipating—in other words, the enthusiasm of the original members of the EU may have lessened. To eastern Europe, it should be no surprise that accession has been seen as a desirable completion of the changes brought about by the end of the Berlin Wall. However, I am not sure—and I think that some speakers would agree—that the EU has been exacting enough in its conditions for membership. I would put it this way: assurances and promises from candidate countries seem to have been accepted as equivalents of actual change prior to the grant of membership of the EU. Basic freedoms and the rule of law are not adequately respected in some countries. As a small example, I am anxious that in Poland freedom of speech is somewhat at risk. Academics and journalists are being sent questionnaires about how far they co-operated with Poland’s communist regime, which fell in 1990. Failure to complete those questionnaires results in the loss of their jobs.
High-level corruption and organised crime in Romania and Bulgaria, our two latest adherents to the Union, continue to be a serious problem. A report in the Financial Times last month said:
“Several EU member states claim Commission officials have been told privately to not be too critical of the two countries, even though Bulgaria has a non-existent record for convictions for high-level corruption”.
The report and my noble friend Lord Grenfell in opening the debate are surely right to say that the EU should not endorse target dates for EU entry in the future until it is fully satisfied that the candidate can assume the obligations of membership. The noble Lord, Lord Cobbold, referred to Turkey, which is on track to enter the EU by 2014. It could be 2017; it could be some later date. Aside from the particular problems of Cyprus, there are longer-term concerns about Turkish membership. The noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, referred to the anti-democratic threats of intervention by the army. That, of course, would not be the first intervention in recent years, but one of three or four. I am not sure whether that is the greatest worry or whether it is the other worry, mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Renton of Mount Harry, which I would term influence on government of Islamist ideology despite the country’s secularist constitution. It would not be a happy situation for the existing members of the EU if the new President of Turkey were to allow such ideology to influence the vital powers that he has to appoint judges, heads of universities and senior posts in the civil service.
Under Article 49 of the treaty on European Union, any European country may seek membership of the EU if it respects and applies European values of decency—I am sorry; decency would be all right, but I meant democracy—human rights, the rule of law and fundamental freedoms. The so-called Copenhagen
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In my view, the European values set out in these documents should not be unduly stretched, like a piece of elastic, in the cause of pushing ahead and continuing almost relentlessly the momentum to enlargement of which I have spoken. Apart from other considerations, it is recognised by the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, and in the report that public opinion on these matters is problematic or, if the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, prefers, fluid. Too often the EU fails to carry public opinion with it on a number of matters and, as we all know, the institutional and policy changes necessary to accompany enlargement have not yet taken place. That is why I believe that a pause is desirable.
6.53 pm
Lord Stoddart of Swindon: My Lords, first, I reiterate my position on the EU, which is, as it has always been, that we should never have gone in and that we should come out tomorrow. Having said that, I congratulate the committee on the work that it has put in on the subject of enlargement. It is a highly important subject and needs a great deal of consideration and discussion. I wish to comment on some aspects of the report. I had thought that I should be an odd man out today, but that has not proved to be the case. I am very encouraged by the cautionary tone of some of the speeches. In some respects, I shall follow what has already been said, in particular about the accession of Turkey.
From my point of view and that of many others, widening has always meant deepening. Some people have taken the view that widening would lead to less deepening. I have always taken the view that widening is bound to lead to more deepening. That has been the case. The committee commented on current attitudes of the public to enlargement. The Government do not give the public enough credit for knowing what is going on. They feel that they need to explain the benefits of the EU and enlargement. When I have asked, “What are the benefits?”. I have always been told by the Government that they are self-evident. Clearly, the Select Committee does not feel that that is the case. In this case, the Government agree with it and want to convince the people one way or another. One of the ways in which they could do so with regard to the policies of the EU is to produce a cost-benefit analysis. That has been requested by the noble Lord, Lord Pearson, who is present today.
Indeed, the public are not unaware of many of the implications, especially the dilution of Britain’s voting strength in the institutions, extra costs and the potential for large waves of immigration after each enlargement. Although the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, said that the general view is that immigration helps the economy to grow, and is beneficial to the economy, other people believe that that is simply not true; they believe that, when you take infrastructure costs, housing and what have you
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The impact of previous enlargements has led to more centralisation—an increase in powers. Already some 70 per cent of policy emanates from the European Union. I do not know how much more there will be. There are the present demands to bring back the EU constitution in one form or another to deal with the latest influx of new member states. These suggestions include a two-and-a-half-year presidency, a foreign minister, a legal personality and the relinquishment of most of the remaining vetoes. If those are brought about, that would be a serious deepening of the European Union and a huge increase in its powers and influence.
On costs, the committee points out that the budget review will have to take into account future enlargements. So it will. The committee refers to the fact that discussions will take place in 2008-09. What, I should like to know, will happen to our rebate during those discussions? That has been under attack for a very long time. The French in particular see 2009 as the date when Britain will lose its rebate, in part to finance future enlargements.
What about future enlargements? I have read the details in the report with some astonishment. Under the heading “Candidates and potential candidates”, the report states:
“The Union could be faced with the stark choice between integrating ... or having to take responsibility for running them as protectorates”.
Have you ever heard anything like that in modern times? It smacks of old-fashioned imperialism. The noble Lord, Lord Triesman, gives me a look of disagreement, but we are talking about “running them as protectorates”. If that is not imperialism, I do not know what is.
We need to know the limits of enlargement. Are there any limits at all? The treaties referred to an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe, but recent indications of government policy seem to envisage a much wider union embracing a geographical area beyond Europe. There are 13 possible entrants in Europe if Belarus and the former Soviet republics are included, but the present drive—and we have heard about it in practically every speech tonight—is to admit Turkey. Turkey is an Asian country. It has ancient roots and an ancient culture as well as an overwhelmingly Muslim population. By 2016, the target date for accession, the population of Turkey will be between 90 million and 100 million, as the noble Lord, Lord Cobbold, pointed out. That would make it by far the largest country in the European Union—far bigger than Germany, which is the largest country at present.
Turkey’s accession would have enormous implications for the European Union and our own country would suffer from them. These profound implications are not being considered by Governments, let alone their populations. If Turkey is admitted, there will not be a
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Furthermore, if we cross that Rubicon, once the precedent has been set, what is to stop further eastern expansion into Asia? How will the EU be able to refuse applications from countries such as Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan if Turkey is admitted? That would add a further population of 70 million to 80 million to the Union and bring additional problems, including the governance of such a diversity of peoples.
There is now talk of the EU’s relationship with north Africa. Mr Nicolas Sarkozy, the newly elected French President, specifically mentioned north Africa in his speech following his election. Some people are arguing already that the colonial relationship of north Africa with many European countries gives it a superior claim to join the club than the likes of Turkey and other Asian countries.
We really ought to get down to defining the limits—if there are any in the minds of Governments and others—of EU expansion. If we do not, we will find ourselves facing unimaginable, insoluble problems and difficulties that could lead to a complete collapse of the whole edifice. The report is entitled, “Enlargement of the EU: threat or opportunity?”. I have made it clear that I believe it to be a threat.
7.04 pm
Lord Dubs: My Lords, I am delighted to have been on the Select Committee that produced the report, and that we have an opportunity today to debate it. I am very grateful to my noble friend Lord Grenfell for the way in which he led the committee and to the staff for their helpful support.
When the 10 countries joined the EU, I felt quite emotional as I watched the ceremony in Dublin on television. It was an important occasion. Eight of the countries had been communist, living under a dictatorship, and had moved towards accepting the principles of freedom, democracy and market economies. That was an important and significant occasion. Joining the EU was one of the main aims of many countries under communism, because it was their chance to demonstrate their commitment to democracy, freedom and human rights. Some of the countries said, way back, that one benefit of wishing to join the EU was that changes that they wanted to make anyway had to be made a bit faster under persuasion from the EU. They thought that that was a good thing.
I welcome the British Government’s positive attitude to enlargement and know that that stance has been much appreciated in the accession countries and others hoping to join the EU. I am aware that in many EU countries there is now less enthusiasm for enlargement; we see phrases such as absorption capacity, which has now been called integration capacity. We had a taste of that a minute ago from the noble Lord, Lord Stoddart, whose remarks I will comment on as I go on.
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One issue highlighted in the report is that public opinion in some countries in western Europe is not that enthusiastic about enlargement. However, I agree fully with the report’s finding that the Governments of the EU have made far too little effort to bring their populations with them, to explain the arguments and the benefits of enlargement, and to try to win over public opinion. If there is no attempt by western Governments to persuade our voters and educate them about the benefits of EU membership and enlargement, of course the only voices that we will hear are those of the noble Lords, Lord Stoddart and Lord Pearson. That is to the detriment of the whole process, and I hope that EU Governments will be aware of what is happening.
The noble Lord, Lord Stoddart, said that wider meant deeper. I am bound to say that that assertion has no argument to support it. Most of the people I have spoken to who do not want a deeper Europe welcome enlargement, because they see it as a way of widening the EU and of not going down the federal path, which I do not think any of us here particularly wants. But one cannot do that by arguing in terms of assertions; one has to prove a point.
One of the difficulties for the Turkish Government, who want to join the EU, is that the negative voices towards Turkey from many western European countries are having an adverse effect on public opinion in the country. It is hard for a Government to maintain enthusiasm for their policy of trying to join the EU in the fairly distant future, if their own public hear such negative expressions from here. I will say a little about economic benefits and some of the countries on the route to accession, and then turn to some of the arguments about how we might look ahead.
I am satisfied that there are massive economic benefits for this country in European enlargement. The ultimate test has to be: what is in the interests of this country? Clearly, however, there are also benefits to Europe as a whole, which I equally welcome. After all, 14,000 British firms export to central and eastern Europe. There has been a big increase in trade between Britain and the A10 countries. We have seen benefits in Britain in our economic growth, at least partly as a result of the movement of labour from some of the A8 countries. It is certainly clear that the three countries that opened their doors to labour movements from the A8 countries have seen larger economic growth than the other members of the EU. I know economists differ in their assessment of this, but I have seen estimates of up to 1 per cent of GDP growth being attributable to the beneficial effects of inward migration.
In turning to specific countries, I shall start with Poland, also referred to by my noble friend Lord Borrie. I was at a party at the Polish embassy to watch the referendum and, because it achieved more than 50 per cent, to celebrate its success and the fact that Poland would soon be a member of the EU. I was very enthusiastic. I say to Poland that, when her friends are dismayed by some of the things that are happening, we are dismayed as friends and people who have supported Polish entry for a long time.
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It is very sad that people who held out against the communist regime, people who were distinguished members of Solidarity, should now have to stand out against their Government because of what they are trying to do. I refer in particular to Tadeusz Mazowiecki, Poland’s first non-communist Prime Minister, who has been dismissed from a particular committee; and Bronislaw Geremek, a former Foreign Minister, who has been threatened with losing his seat in the European Parliament. Why? Because they believe that the Polish Government are indulging in a witch hunt by making them sign statements when they have already been cleared. I am delighted that the European Parliament has come out in support of Mr Geremek. I am not clear whether the Polish Government are able to dismiss a member of the European Parliament, but the threat is there. It is not a happy policy to come from Poland. I hope that they will realise that it is against the spirit of human-rights-based policies that characterise the EU.
I turn now to Turkey. I was in Ankara a couple of months ago, where I was able to indulge in serious discussions with various people. I was, of course, critical of some of the things that are happening in Turkey. We should recognise the progress that Turkey has made. It is no good saying that we do not like what the army is doing and that it is not a good omen for the EU, if we do not, at the same time, realise that Turkey has made significant progress, is working very hard on this and wants to go on making progress. The people I spoke to were very keen on our understanding that they have made some progress, but they realise that they have some way to go.
It is clear that Turkey would not accept second-class status. They are a proud people and the idea, which some EU Governments might suggest, of having some sort of relationship with the EU is not acceptable; nor, indeed, would the countries of the western Balkans accept it.
Our report is clear about Cyprus, but it is important that this should not be allowed to halt the process of moving towards accession talks. We need to deal with Cyprus separately. The Turkish Government must take action on the commitments that they made some time ago. There also have to be moves on the part of the EU and the Cypriot Government. These difficulties can be overcome.
There are still difficulties over human rights and basic freedoms in Turkey. Article 301 of the constitution is a particular problem, but Ankara recognises that. We are all dismayed by the Turkish army’s threat to the elected Government because of the discussion about the future presidency. Whatever the Turkish army has done in the past was before Turkey wanted to join the EU. The situation is different now and it is totally unacceptable for a military force to operate independently of, and in opposition to, a democratically elected Government. I hope very much that wiser spirits will prevail in Ankara. I give way.
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Lord Pearson of Rannoch: My Lords, before the noble Lord leaves Turkey, could I, as a friend of Turkey, raise a problem that he has not covered? The French and Austrian people have been given binding referendums on whether Turkey should be allowed to join the European Union when the time comes. Does the noble Lord see opinion in France and Austria changing quickly enough to allow Turkey to enter the European Union, whatever the political negotiations may be in the mean time?
Lord Dubs: My Lords, I do not want to underestimate the difficulties presented by an ill advised move by two Governments in holding referendums. That has never been the case before and it raises the possibility of some very unhealthy arguments taking place about the accession of Turkey. All I can say is that Turkey’s accession is, at best, many years ahead. Opinions can change by then. We shall see how things develop. That does not mean that we should say no to Turkey because the previous French President said that there would be a referendum. That would be a most ill advised approach.
I turn to the situation in Moldova, which I had the chance to visit last year. Moldova, with its close economic, political and social ties to Romania, is now separated from Romania by the European Union border. This has posed enormous difficulties, particularly as the country is also having problems with the policies emanating from Moscow. For example, Moldova makes more wine than any other product. Until the Russians boycotted Moldovan wine, 65 per cent of it went to Russia, so the country is under economic pressure. There is also pressure in a small part of Moldova called Transnistria, where there are still some Russian troops. These are all serious problems, exacerbated by the fact that their easy relationship with Romania has now been severed by the EU border. I hope that the Government will look at Moldova as almost a special case in the support and help we can give them, given that their difficulties are greater than those experienced by any other country adjacent to an EU member.
It would be wrong to set a limit on EU expansion, to say today that Europe will go so far and no further. Equally, I am unhappy with the idea of a pause, as put forward by my noble friend Lord Borrie, because it would simply destabilise the applicant countries. It is not clear what would bring a pause to an end. There is, anyway, plenty of breathing space in the fairly long process of negotiating accession agreements. A pause would not be helpful; in the present decade only Croatia is likely to be able to join the EU.
The countries of the western Balkans should be offered a credible EU perspective for their way forward; otherwise they face enormous difficulties. The EU would look odd in the long term if some west Balkan countries were members but others were not. The lesson of Cyprus is that we should be very careful about existing border disputes in any country that seeks to join the EU, but we should not give third countries a veto over the process, as the report makes very clear. The EU treaty gives every European
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I trust that the constitutional treaty is effectively dead, and the idea of a referendum with it. We need relatively small changes in EU governance to cope healthily with an enlarged EU membership. Those do not require a referendum and can be brought through fairly easily, without all the difficulties attributed to the constitutional treaty. It is important to bring the people of this country and the people of Europe with us. The process of enlargement is important; it will lead to a more democratic and healthier EU. I welcome the progress that we are making in that direction.
7.19 pm
Lord Stevens of Ludgate: My Lords, I apologise to the House and to the noble Lord, Lord Grenfell, for missing the beginning of his speech. I congratulate him and his committee on the report on EU enlargement. I am pleased to say that for once I agree with almost every comment or recommendation.
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