Select Committee on Economic Affairs Second Report


CHAPTER 9: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Comprehensive Sanctions

127.  In relation to what was widely seen as the most important issue, Iraq eliminated its WMD stocks and production programmes unilaterally in 1991. Iraq complied with most of what was demanded of it, even though the conditions imposed for the lifting of sanctions were extremely demanding. (Para 38)

128.  After this initial period and up to the end of 2002, episodes of Iraqi compliance with UN demands were sometimes related to the prospect of a possible end to sanctions and at others to averting the use of force by the US and UK. From late 2002 onwards, Iraqi cooperation was a product of trying to avert the threat of imminent invasion rather than secure the lifting of sanctions. (Para 44)

129.  It is predictable that sanctions which inflict high economic costs on a country run by a ruthless government are extremely likely to result in severe suffering among the general population even if there are humanitarian exemptions and relief programmes. (Para 46)

130.  When economic sanctions are relatively weak in their economic effects, they can have the overall net effect of strengthening the target regime by legitimizing it, by strengthening its control over resources, or both. Where the economic effects of sanctions are more severe, they can have the effect of weakening the target regime's overall capabilities to act, especially in foreign policy, but the regime can still turn aspects of sanctions to its advantage and increase its internal control. (Para 47)

Targeted and General EU Sanctions: the Case of Burma

131.  The evidence suggests that UK sanctions on Burma should not be regarded as targeted sanctions, particularly since the policy of discouraging trade, investment and tourism hits the economy generally and consequently hurts the ordinary Burmese people. (Para 52)

132.  The sanctions on Burma send a signal of disapproval, and show that the UK and EU are determined to apply pressure for change but there has been no significant move towards greater democracy or increased respect for human rights. While the UK and EU desire democratic change in Burma, they do not have any expectation that their current economic sanctions combined with those of other countries, most notably the US, will bring about that change. This contradicts the Government's principle that sanctions should "have clear objectives, including well-defined and realistic demands against which compliance can be judged, and a clear exit strategy". (Para 54)

133.  It would seem that the Government regards the current policy as the best available option, in the sense that it imposes a relatively low cost on the Burmese people and is better than any of the alternatives. Considering the evidence we have received, we are not persuaded on either count. (Para 56)

134.  We think that the Government should attempt to assess whether humanitarian assistance has helped to compensate for the humanitarian costs arising from the current sanctions against Burma. (Para 57)

135.  We are concerned that the Government and EU have not published any substantial analysis of the sanctions on Burma. We suggest the Government should undertake an urgent enquiry into sanctions policy on Burma, with a view to deciding whether it is worth continuing with it. (Para 61)

Targeted Financial Sanctions

136.  In our view, efforts to improve targeting and de-listing procedures are not adequate. The existing procedures appear to violate EU sanctions principles, which emphasise that there should be due process and clear criteria for the listing and de-listing of individuals. We urge the Government to look for ways in which proper degrees of transparency and due legal process can be incorporated into targeting procedures. (Para 66)

137.  The evidence suggests that the amounts of money frozen are so small, both in absolute terms and relative to the probable resources of the targets, that it is doubtful whether asset freezes are very effective as a means of inhibiting or changing the behaviour of those who are targeted. (Para 68)

138.  In the context of the technology of modern banking and the networks of informal banking based in the Middle East and Asia, "targeted" financial sanctions are likely to hit few targets. While this does not mean that they should be abandoned, such sanctions will at best be a secondary tool for action against terrorists. They may however be effective, even if they impose few costs, when the target wishes to avoid the stigma of illegitimacy. (Para 69)

139.  While recognising the urgent need to take vigorous action in response to the terrorist threats facing the EU and the US, we endorse the condemnation by the EU of the extra-territorial application of US sanctions legislation as a violation of international law. (Para 73)

140.  The existing measures available under EU and UK law appear to us to provide a sufficient legal basis for an effective response to US extra-territoriality: what is required is the political will to address this issue. (Para 75)

Targeted Commodity Sanctions

141.  In relation to targeted commodity sanctions, including diamonds, we urge the Government to continue to work for improvements in UN monitoring and enforcement capabilities and we support the view that a permanent UN team should be established to assess trade in conflict commodities and the value of sanctions in relation to them. (Para 81)

Sanctions Policy: Principles and Practice

142.  Targeted financial sanctions have been less effective than is sometimes suggested. They have been imposed on people and entities selected on non-transparent or dubious grounds; they have hit few targets and not hit them hard. (Para 84)

143.  Even if it is regarded as necessary to retain the option of comprehensive sanctions, it should be recognised that this is not compatible with the claim that UK sanctions should hit the regime rather than the people, and we are not persuaded that humanitarian exemptions can adequately solve the problem. (Para 85)

144.  The UN has developed systematic technical guidelines for evaluating the humanitarian implications of sanctions before, during and after their imposition, and also for mitigating their effects.[45] The Government should ensure the application of the UN's humanitarian assessment procedures to any sanctions with which it is involved, especially those which damage the target country's economy in a general way. It should also provide a public account of the application of the UN guidelines. (Para 91)

145.  We are sensitive to the demands of policy-making and the reality that events can develop so rapidly that decisions must at times be made reactively. Nevertheless, we would argue that such reasons do not normally justify the rushed adoption of sanctions. If sanctions are, nevertheless, imposed without proper advance planning, they should certainly be followed by proper monitoring and by the development of an exit strategy. In our view, the Government has an incomplete commitment to the principle that objectives should be clear and realistic and that an exit strategy should be developed before sanctions are imposed. It repeatedly adopts sanctions with little sense of whether the objectives can be achieved or of how sanctions can contribute to the achievement of those objectives. (Para 95)

146.  Sanctions policy is more likely to be effective if it incorporates an appropriate system of monitoring and control, which would normally require the establishment of a permanent expert staff. (Para 98)

147.  We recommend that the Government should be more active in promoting systematic monitoring and independent expert review of sanctions policy. We also suggest that there should be provision for regular Parliamentary review of sanctions so that Parliament can consider whether sanctions are achieving their intended goals or whether policy should be amended. (Para 99)

148.  The direct costs to British business arising from compliance with UK sanctions policy are minor. The opportunity costs will be more substantial but more difficult to quantify. The costs are acceptable to the extent that the sanctions policies themselves are well founded, something that is open to question in some of the cases we have considered. (Para 104)

149.  Economic sanctions used in isolation from other policy instruments are extremely unlikely to force a target to make major policy changes, especially where relations between the states involved are hostile more generally. Even when economic sanctions are combined effectively with other foreign policy instruments, on most occasions they play a subordinate role to those other instruments. Economic sanctions can be counter-productive in a variety of ways, including when more vigorous coercion in the form of force is needed but is forestalled by those making inflated claims for the value of sanctions as an alternative. Sanctions may also be counter-productive when what is required is a much greater emphasis on economic, diplomatic and security incentives. When the Government's goal is to symbolise disapproval, measures other than economic sanctions should be used wherever possible. Furthermore, when the use of economic sanctions for this purpose is proposed, serious consideration should be given to the possibility that their overall effect will be counter-productive, even in symbolic terms. (Para 109)

150.  Nevertheless, economic sanctions can, on occasion, contribute substantially to achieving objectives when combined appropriately with other instruments of foreign policy. (Para 110)

North Korea

151.  North Korea has repeatedly stated its conditions for renouncing nuclear weapons and scrapping longer-range ballistic missile exports: diplomatic recognition, security guarantees, lifting of sanctions and major economic incentives. However distasteful the regime is, such a deal is preferable to the dangers of nuclear-armed confrontation and the 13 February Agreement is to be welcomed. We endorse the Government's support for the Agreement and the phased lifting of sanctions as part of that Agreement. (Para 118)

Iran

152.  The key strength of the EU's proposed Framework Agreement on Iranian nuclear technology is its emphasis on incentives rather than sanctions and its key weakness is the lack of US support for it. (Para 120)

153.  We urge the Government to make every effort, bilaterally and through the EU, to persuade the US to commit fully to involvement with the EU's proposed Framework Agreement. (Para 123)

Implications for policy towards North Korea and Iran

154.  Reliance on sanctions as the main means of resolving the current disputes with North Korea and Iran appears to be a recipe for failure. (Para 124)

155.  The prospects for success would appear to be maximised by a pragmatic emphasis on securing a sustained US commitment to a broader international initiatives offering lifting of sanctions, economic incentives, diplomatic recognition and security guarantees. These incentives should be phased and coordinated with verifiable, reciprocal steps by North Korea and Iran. (Para 126)



45   Manuel Bessler, Richard Garfield and Richard McHugh, Sanctions Assessment Handbook: Assessing the Humanitarian Impact of Sanctions and Field Guidelines for Assessing the Humanitarian Impact of Sanctions.  Back


 
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