Select Committee on European Union Fortieth Report


EU STRATEGY FOR AFRICA (continued)

OECD-DAC SECRETARIAT SIMULATION OF DAC MEMBERS' NET ODA VOLUMES IN 2006 AND 2010 IN CONSTANT 2004 US$ MILLION

The date below are not forecasts but Secretariat projections based on public announcements by member countries of the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC). The key figures from such announcements are shown as Assumptions". To calculate net ODA and ODA/GNI ratios requires projections for GNI for 2006 and 2010. For 2006 the projections of real growth for each country are taken from the OECD Economic Outlook No 77 (May 2005) Annex Table 1. For the period 2006-10 real annual GNI growth of 2% is assumed for all countries. White calculations have been discussed at technical level with national authorities the DAC Secretariat is responsible for the methodology and the final published results.


20 September 2005
  2004   2006 2010
  Net ODA ODA/GNI Per cent     ODA/GNI Real change in ODA compared with 2004   ODA/GNI Real change in ODA compared with 2004
Country (provisional) Per cent Assumptions Net ODA Per cent ($ m) Per cent Net ODA Per cent ($ m) Per cent
Austria 678 0.23 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 1,000 0.33 322 48 1,673 0.51 995 147
Belgium1 1,483 0.41 0.7% in 2010 1,815 0.49 351 24 2,807 0.70 1,344 92
Denmark 2,037 0.85 Minimum 0.8% 2,037 0.81 0 0 2,185 0.80 148 7
Finland1, 2 655 0.35 0.44% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2010 797 0.41 141 22 1,475 0.70 820 125
France1 8,475 0.42 0.5% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2012 9,877 0.47 1,403 17 13,885 0.61 5,410 64
Germany 7,534 0.28 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 9,271 0.33 1,737 23 15,509 0.51 7,975 106
Greece 465 0.23 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 715 0.33 251 54 1,196 0.51 732 158
Ireland 586 0.39 0.5% in 2007 and 0.7% in 2012 731 0.44 146 25 1,072 0.60 486 83
Italy 2,462 0.15 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 5,537 0.33 3,075 125 9,262 0.51 6,801 276
Luxembourg 241 0.85 1% in 2009 275 0.91 34 14 327 1.00 87 36
Netherlands 4,235 0.74 Minimum 0.8% 4,801 0.82 567 13 5,070 0.80 836 20
Portugal3 1,031 0.63 0.33% in 2006 and 0.51% in 2010 558 0.33 -474 -46 933 0.51 -96 -10
Spain1, 2 2,547 0.26 0.5% in 2008 and 0.7% in 2012 3,446 0.33 899 35 6,687 0.59 4,140 163
Sweden 2,722 0.78 1% in 2006 3,719 1.00 997 37 4,025 1.00 1,303 48
United Kingdom1, 2 7,836 0.36 0.47% in 2007-08 and 0.7% in 2013 9,553 0.42 1,716 22 14,525 0.59 6,689 85
Ülh0İ
EU Members, Total 42,966 0.35 54,132 0.43 11,166 26 80,633 0.59 37,667 88
Australia 1,465 0.25 0.36% in 2010 1,768 0.28 303 21 2,460 0.36 995 68
Canada 2,537 0.26 8% annual increase until 2010 2,959 0.29 422 17 4,026 0.36 1,489 59
Japan4 8,859 0.19 See footnote 4 9,859 0.20 1,000 11 11,859 0.22 3,000 34
New Zealand 210 0.23 0.27% in 2005-06 and 0.28% in 2007-08 262 0.27 51 24 294 0.28 84 40
Norway 2,200 0.87 1% over 2006-09 2,657 1.00 458 21 2,876 1.00 677 31
Switzerland5 1,545 0.41 See footnote 5 1,596 0.41 51 3 1,728 0.41 183 12
United States6 18,999 0.16 See footnote 6 24,000 0.19 5,001 26 24,000 0.18 5,001 26
DAC Members, Total 78,780 0.25 97,233 0.30 18,453 23 127,876 0.36 49,096 62

1 ODA/GNI ratios interpolated between 2004 and year target scheduled to be attained.
2 Finland aim to achieve 0.7% by 2010 subject to economic circumstances; Spain aim for a minimum of 0.5% by 2008, with the intention then to aim for 0.7% by 2012; the UK has announced a timetable to reach 0.7% by 2013.
3 Portugal's ODA in 2004 was above trend due to an exceptional debt relief operation for Angola.
4 Japan intends to increase its ODA volume by $10 billion in aggregate over the next five years (2005-09), compared to its net ODA in 2004. The Secretariat's estimate assumes $1 billion extra in 2005 and $3 billion extra in 2010.
5 Switzerland's ODA will increase by 8% in nominal terms from 2005 to 2006. A new goal will be determined for the following years. The Secretariat's estimate assumes maintenance of 0.41% of GNI in 2006 and 2010.
6 Secretariat estimates based on 2004 ODA plus $5 billion per annum to cover the Gleneagles G8 commitments on increased aid to Africa, Millennium Challenge Account, and initiatives on HIV/AIDS, malaria and humanitarian aid.
7 The Netherlands ODA in 2004 was below its target, as India repaid all its outstanding Dutch aid loans. The Netherlands intends to maintain its target of 0.8% of GNI on average, over the period 2004-07.


 
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