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The recorded effects of climate change as a result of excessive energy consumption and pollution can be rattled off like a shopping list—glacial melt, smog, acid rain, flooding, increased erosions, crop starvation, disease and deaths. Two of the worst recent examples are Hurricane Katrina and tropical Cyclone Sidr. The catastrophic effects of Katrina are only too well documented. Albeit that we had all the resources at our feet, there is still a great deal to be rebuilt. Before Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, the US National Weather Service broadcast at least two emergency warnings about the potential effects of the hurricane. Both were ignored and less than 24 hours later New Orleans drowned. The cry from the people was and still is, “The Government acted too late”.
As someone born not too far from the reach of Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh, I am particularly concerned about climate change. The citizens of Bangladesh are now in the forefront of our warming planet. People are already feeling the impact as river beds and livelihoods erode. The devastation wreaked by Cyclone Sidr on Bangladesh is fresh in our minds. The confirmed death toll is about 5,000, rising each second with untold numbers unaccounted for. It seems that the new early warning systems that were in place, with the help of the UK and US, and disaster preparedness saved millions of lives. I welcome that, as will all noble Lords. However, around half a million hectares of crops have been damaged and hundreds of thousands of livestock have been lost. The toll of destruction is heavy, with more than 1 million homes damaged or
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In Africa lies Lake Chad, which in 1963 was the sixth largest lake in the world. Today, at one-twentieth of its original size, it is but a pond in comparison. N’guigmi, a city in Niger, once surrounded on three sides by Lake Chad, is now more than 60 miles from the water. As yet no studies have been carried out on the effect that this loss of water and livelihood has had in the region, which is better known for genocidal attacks. Do we have to wait for studies to be carried out when all the evidence is before us? Do we have to wait for this “Mad Max” scenario to knock on our door before we do anything? Obviously not.
Despite these depressing developments, we are equipped with the tools for humankind to begin to reverse some of the catastrophic effects, of which we have heard from all sides of the House. To paraphrase Al Gore in his book An Inconvenient Truth, the era of procrastination is over. We are now facing an era of consequences, as has been eloquently said. Perhaps we need seriously to consider nuclear power stations or a Bill that subsidises the installation of solar panels and generators, as has been suggested. Maybe we need both. I am not an expert. I speak from an emotional standpoint and from what people tell me on these issues. I do not have the answers; I am making suggestions for your Lordships’ consideration.
We know that climate change is no longer happening in small pockets in far-off places. As the oceans get warmer, storms get stronger; the effect has been a 20 per cent increase in worldwide precipitation in the past 20 years. It is happening on an ever increasing scale, covering more and more areas and affecting more and more people. We have only to look back to June through to October this year, when communities on more than 40 British rivers were placed on flood alert. When the floods were done, at least 12 people had been killed, more than 5,000 properties were flooded and 48,000 were left without power. Some estimates placed the damage at over £500 million. In addition, the River Ouse reached its highest recorded level since 1625. The resounding cry there, too, was that the Government had acted too late.
Climate change contributes to rising sea levels, which turn freshwater sources salty and unusable. In Bangladesh and elsewhere, sea water has travelled so far that salt can be tasted from groundwater sources 100 kilometres inland. This is killing fruit trees and freshwater fish, damaging vital forests and making people travel further to get water to drink and cook with.
Many noble Lords will speak on some of these issues, including those that affect Africa, which the noble Lord, Lord Puttnam, and others mentioned. I shall raise two further points. First, like others, I am concerned that the targets in the Bill are not strong enough; they were drawn up seven years ago and are well out of date. In the light of this, I am concerned that the committee to be established by the Bill may be working on outdated information. I hope that the Minister will reassure the House in addressing this
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Lord Vinson: My Lords, it is not quite true to say that Bangladesh has made no contribution. One of the underlying sources of CO2 generation is the world population, and population growth is exploding. All of us must think twice, in considering limiting carbon, about how we limit world population growth. I am sure that that applies to India as much as to anywhere else.
Baroness Uddin: My Lords, I thank the noble Lord for his comment. I said, as the noble Lord would have heard, that I consider the contribution to be negligible in comparison.
While Sidr may be attributed to natural climatic patterns, the two recent floods, the rising sea levels and warmer temperatures causing greater chances of affecting natural patterns are now well evidenced. Therefore, I would wish us to utilise, as part of our special relationship and influence with the USA and other parts of the mature world, some brownie points to raise this critical agenda.
This is the 21st century and, as has often been noted, we live in a globalised world. Our families, societies and business relationships have never been more international or interdependent. We must be careful that, in reducing emissions at home, we change our way of doing things and do not simply put them offshore, offloading them on to other countries. Within our borders, we generate just over 2 per cent of global emissions, but the economic activity of UK-listed companies is responsible for around 12 to 15 per cent. Therefore, our impact is categorically global—I hope that that answers the question asked by the noble Lord, Lord Vinson, a little more.
The Bill should include enabling powers to allow the Government to set common reporting standards on carbon emissions and to ensure that businesses have regard to these standards. Such transparency should cover not just direct emissions but also those generated indirectly from companies’ electricity use, supply chains and investments. Although the framework for reducing our carbon emissions should focus on reducing our domestic economy, we should know and understand how UK businesses generate emissions both here and around the globe. At the moment, such transparency is sorely lacking, depriving consumers, investors and the Government of key information in an accessible and comparable format. Of course, such powers should be implemented after discussion with UK businesses to ensure that they are not unnecessarily burdensome, but I believe that this is both possible and necessary.
The time for political agendas and positioning is over and I am glad that in this Bill the Government intend to act more decisively. If ever the whole world needed to work together to resolve a problem, it is now on climate change, as noble Lords on all sides
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At the opening ceremony of last week’s Commonwealth Heads of Government summit in Kampala, Lawrence Gonzi, outgoing chairman and the Maltese Prime Minister, said:
I hope that later today my noble friend the Minister will set out absolutely the position that Great Britain will be presenting at the Bali summit. Leadership before the world on this is not only desirable but critical so that we can prevent a resounding cry from our children that we acted too late.
5.01 pm
Lord Crickhowell: My Lords, I served on the Joint Committee on the draft Bill, which was ably chaired by the noble Lord, Lord Puttnam. I was led into my next remarks by my noble friend Lord Waldegrave of North Hill. Evidence sessions began and finished with two contrasting but connected contributions. In the first session, my noble friend Lord Lawson of Blaby—whom I have seldom dared to challenge since our schooldays across the road where he was a scholar and I was distinctly non-academic—in a characteristic presentation doubted whether we should be treading this path at all. He described the Government’s “quaint proposal” as “dangerous” because, by going out on a limb alone, we would not have any measurable effect on global warming but would damage our own economy. We were told that, because the Chinese among others would not follow, it was the equivalent of the lead of the Earl of Cardigan in his charge of the Light Brigade.
That was not my conclusion, nor that of the committee. I welcome the Bill, but recognise that we have to remember that the actions that we take may have results only far into the future and then perhaps only by delaying the impact of global warming, even if we succeed in stabilising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Some of the costs might be better devoted to dealing with adaptation and some of the gravest problems confronting the poorest parts of the globe today. As the Government put it in their Explanatory Notes, we have to find an,
To that extent, my noble friend and those who think like him make valid points.
However, I believe that an overwhelming case has been made for the need to act urgently, not least because we cannot press others to do so if we are unwilling to set an example to other counties, including those such as China and India that have development as their priority. Nevertheless, those countries may be more receptive than the sceptics allow. Almost half the world’s glaciers are in China and their disappearance would have devastating consequences, while some of China’s most important river systems are already in a desperate condition. The reasons why China will have
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It was a happy chance that the committee, having started by hearing from my noble friend, concluded its evidence by questioning Dr Lu Xuedu, representing the Chinese Government, who argued that all countries, including his own, had to find a balance between development and measures to combat climate change. He said:
He thought that our legislation would have influence on China and the world and he may have given some comfort to my noble friend Lord Lawson by suggesting that adaptation to the effects of climate change is as important as mitigation.
I turn now to the substance of the Bill, which is predicated on the basis that it imposes legally enforceable duties on the Government. I expressed my doubts in the debate on the gracious Speech and will return to this important issue by tabling amendments to Clause 1, which seeks to impose a legal duty on the Secretary of State to ensure that the net carbon account more than 40 uncertain years ahead is 60 per cent lower than the 1990 baseline. I wonder whether a Secretary of State in office in 1955 would have been able to deliver on a similar undertaking or whether he and his successors could have been held legally responsible if they had failed to do so.
In committee, I suggested that Clause 1 be replaced by a purpose clause and that any legal duties should arise from what is now Clause 4, which requires the Secretary of State to set and achieve five-year carbon budgets. The committee shared my scepticism about legal enforceability and the dubious proposition that the courts would be prepared to make judgments about the approach of Ministers to a whole series of very complex policy issues, let alone seek to impose penalties. Instead, we suggested the inclusion in the Bill of compliance mechanisms. The Government continue to assert that the duties are legally enforceable and add, even more improbably, that any sanctions specified in the Bill,
Because my doubts are widely shared, we will need to consider carefully in Committee whether compliance mechanisms can be found that would give the Bill real teeth.
Concern has also arisen because the duty is imposed on the Secretary of State. We in Parliament understand that a reference to a Secretary of State means all Secretaries of State, but the fact is that it is the Secretary of State at Defra who will be seen as primarily responsible. A parallel mistake is made by those who assume that the emphasis in the Bill is on emissions trading. Certainly, carbon trading is seen as one instrument but, if the duties imposed by the Bill are to be capable of achievement, fiscal policy, energy policy, transport policy, planning and building regulations and the activities of almost every department and their offshoots will play an equally important part. It will require effective joined-up government, which can
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My noble friend Lord Lawson argued that only by taxing carbon until behaviour had changed sufficiently and making sure that everybody else did it as well would you achieve the objective, if that was your objective. Carbon trading he saw as a second-best method and he echoed the Financial Times in describing it as a scam. Surely it is more sensible to see fiscal policy as one instrument among others, which will include carbon trading and the Kyoto clean development mechanism.
At this Second Reading, I will simply draw attention to the evidence given by the witnesses from Climate Change Capital, who probably know as much about these instruments as anyone. Those witnesses rather effectively dealt with some of the criticisms made. I recognise that there will be those who will comment, “Well he would say that, wouldn’t he?” because one of those expert witnesses was my son, Rupert. However, what he had to say about European compliance mechanisms, the robustness of the supervision of the clean development mechanism, the principle of supplementarity, sensible caps on the import of emissions credits and the good arguments for the use of least-cost emissions abroad will, I believe, be of value when we come to consider those issues and the role of the Committee on Climate Change.
It is generally cheaper to take a tonne of CO2 equivalent out of the atmosphere of developing or transition economies than it is to do so in the industrialised world. In seeking the right balance—the noble Lord, Lord Puttnam, referred to this—the committee will have to be careful to ensure that foreign credits do not let us off the hook of having to take effective action ourselves and do not have the effect of setting a carbon price too low to stimulate low-carbon investment and technology investment in Britain and Europe.
Much heat is generated about whether we should have a target of 60 per cent or 80 per cent. The committee considered the arguments carefully and hesitated to come to a conclusion. Our conclusion, such as it was, was to support the Government’s approach, provided that it is understood that this is but a first step along a path and that, as soon as possible after it is established, the Committee on Climate Change should review the issue and make recommendations on the appropriate level for the longer term. I was glad to hear the Minister say that that would be one of its first tasks and that the process will be accelerated.
I find it hard to believe that we are likely to arrive at a sounder conclusion than the committee will by parliamentary debate about what are complex scientific and economic issues. Because my noble friend Lord Taylor of Holbeach is right to say that science is at the heart of the Bill, I am afraid that I have to disagree with his conclusion that we should pass judgment on
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I warmly welcome two improvements to the Bill since we considered it in draft form. First, there are the new provisions on adaptation in Part 4. The Environment Agency and the noble Baroness, Lady Young of Old Scone, have made important proposals based on their experience of the adaptation programme, including the need for an interdepartmental steering group, expert advice and the placing of statutory duties on all public bodies. The noble Lord, Lord Oxburgh, made some important comments on the same subject.
The second improvement is in the clauses that will increase the Government's accountability within Parliament. That will be especially important if I am right about legal enforceability. If the Bill is to achieve even half its aims, Parliament will have to be far more effective than it has been in recent times in holding the Executive to account. It is being given the weapons to do so in this instance. I hope for all our sakes that it will use them effectively. The achievement of a 60 per cent target—let alone 80 per cent—will be a formidable task. It will need an immense, co-ordinated drive by a succession of Governments, a strengthened Committee on Climate Change and the most rigorous supervision by Parliament.
5.13 pm
Lord Turnbull: My Lords, successive reports of the International Panel on Climate Change have increased our knowledge and have narrowed down the range of uncertainty on the prospects of climate change. The estimates will continue to be refined but, for me, at least, it is now clear enough that an approach of “wait and see” is no longer tenable or even morally defensible. It is most unlikely that this will all turn out to be a false alarm.
Fifteen years ago, I hoped that the scientists might discover—as is often the case in nature—that some dampening mechanism might have come into effect, for example that a hotter, moister, more carbon-rich atmosphere encouraged more active carbon sinks and sequestration. Instead, I am more concerned about the accelerative mechanisms: the saturation of the upper layers of the oceans; the reduction in the polar icecaps reducing the reflective power of the Earth; and, most frightening of all, the thawingof the Siberian tundra, releasing vast quantities of methane, which has a global effect 21 times that of CO2.
The dying breed who argue that even if there is warming, it is due to something other than CO2, are now largely confined to Texas and the Washington Beltway, although, as the noble Lords, Lord Waldegrave and Lord Crickhowell, have hinted, they may have posted one or two honorary consuls in our midst. They need to explain how it is possible to double the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and not have
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It is therefore welcome that the Government are responding in the Bill to the growing threat that we face. Nevertheless, there are some questions about the components of the Government’s approach to climate change. First, the target set for 2050 appears to be largely unconditional and unilateral. The UK will commit itself to this target irrespective of the performance of other nations. The reality, however, is that our own contribution by 2050 is unlikely to be crucial, so we are heavily dependent on the exemplary effect: in other words, we cannot carry conviction in international debate if we do not carry our full share of the burden. There is genuine validity in this, but we should not be naïve and rely on it too heavily. If we fail to persuade other nations, we could be left in 40 years’ time having paid heavily to decarbonise our economy and still incurring the costs of rebuilding our sea defences and water resources. The Bill should therefore contain a duty to work actively internationally for more demanding targets.
I am critical of a number of aspects of EU policy on climate change, but the EU might have the better of the argument in one respect. The target for CO2 for 2020, which was set at the May 2007 council, is in two parts: first, a high target representing what it believes is necessary, will campaign for and will adopt if others do the same; secondly, a lower but still demanding target, which is what it will do unconditionally regardless of others.
On the other hand, the adoption of a separate target for the share of renewables, to which we signed up at the same council, is a serious error. It is wrong to preordain a market share for any source of energy or any technology, and there would rightly be strong objections from NGOs and from those on the Liberal Democrat Benches if such a thing were attempted for nuclear power. Having pushed up the price of carbon to reflect its social costs, whether by taxes or by cap and trade, we should allow renewables to find their own level. They should enter the merit order on merit—in other words, because they can contribute substantially to a low-carbon economy—but we should not push on blindly to push the share all the way up to 20 per cent if there are other non-renewable sources, such as clean coal or nuclear, which cost us less. In short, we should in our thinking replace the renewable/non-renewable distinction with a low-carbon versus a high-carbon distinction.
There will be many instruments at our disposal: taxes, relief from taxes, cap and trade, subsidy, grant, and regulation. None is inherently superior to the others, and all will find a use. Whichever is used should be reduced toa common metric: the cost per tonne of carbon avoided. Otherwise, we will find that we are a long way from equalising at the margin the effectiveness of the different approaches.
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