Examination of Witnesses (Questions 7100
7100. MR CAMERON: At the time that Crossrail
7101. CHAIRMAN: I do not want to know
"at the time"; I want to know what it is now.
7102. MR CAMERON: Can I just take instructions
7103. CHAIRMAN: Of course.
(Counsel took instructions.)
7104. MR CAMERON: I will try and put
what I have been told simply, if I can. The figure for benefits
was taken from the Montague Report, which was an independent review
of the scheme, as the Committee will know.
7105. CHAIRMAN: Yes.
7106. MR CAMERON: The figure for costs
assumed that the extension to Ebbsfleet would be included as part
of the scheme when it was implemented atand I am now going
to give the precise dateat that time it was envisaged 2011,
but it was a net present value worked back and, therefore, it
gives an indication which would be equally valid if you were to
promote a Transport and Works Act Order later, because the net
present value of benefits is lower because they come at a later
date, and the costs are lower because you have to wait longer
7107. CHAIRMAN: But your bottom line
on page 91 assumes that the line to Ebbsfleet would be available
7108. MR CAMERON: That was calculated
on the basis that it would be available, I have just been told,
at 2011 or 2012, at the time that the scheme went ahead, and that
was based on the Montague Report.
7109. CHAIRMAN: I understand that. That
cannot be valid today?
7110. MR CAMERON: No, my Lord, it cannot
be valid because of the way we have put this forward. Equally,
if the cost is to be incurred later the current net present value
cost would be less, so it moves forward in time.
7111. CHAIRMAN: So you have no figure
with a realistic opening date for an extension of Crossrail from
Abbey Wood to Ebbsfleet?
7112. MR CAMERON: My Lord, what we can
do, and I cannot do it immediately but I can ask somebody to do
it, is to take the Promoters' figures for their outturn costs,
and they have to assume dates, then, for when the work is to be
done, and to calculate them as a net present value by working
them back and applying the Government's interest rate.
7113. CHAIRMAN: Mr Cameron, this Bill
envisages Crossrail ending at Abbey Wood opening in 2017. When
do you say, given your Transport and Works Act Order, it would
get to Ebbsfleet?
7114. MR CAMERON: It depends entirely
on when the authorities decided to promote the Transport and Works
7115. CHAIRMAN: I quite agree with you,
but I am asking what assumptions we are to make.
7116. MR CAMERON: Well, I hesitate to
make up figures on the hoof right now; I will take instructions
on that and come back to the Committee on it. However, if one
is going to make an analysis of cost and benefit, if you do it
in net present values it does not matter, to a large extent, when
it occurs because it is the net present value that is calculated.
7117. CHAIRMAN: So it does not matter
whether Crossrail reaches Ebbsfleet in 2011 or 2020?
7118. MR CAMERON: Not for the purposes
of the benefit:cost ratio.
7119. CHAIRMAN: The last line on page
91? It is exactly the same?
41 42 Committee Ref: A35, Comparison of Cost/Benefit
Ratios (BEXYLB-44_05A-091) Back