The Study by the Institute of
Employment Studies, University of Sussex
267. The report by the Institute of Employment
Studies, University of Sussex, into the impact of the EIS and
VCTs was published by HMRC on Budget Day. The main conclusions
from the University of Sussex study were that the schemes, especially
the EIS, tend to be associated with general capacity building
(assets and employment) but the effects remain at present quite
small. On the other hand, these companies "had lower aggregate
level profitability and survival rates over the period covered
by the study"[95].
The authors concluded[96]:
"Overall, these results indicate that the
EIS and VCT investments have a positive effect on capacity building
in recipient companies. However, in material terms, these effects
remain at present very small. There is some additional limited
evidence of a profit enhancing effect. However, we also note that
both schemes appear to be associated with differentials in performance
depending on the size, age and sector of the recipient company.
It is important that these findings are interpreted
within the context of the target community of young, growth-orientated
small companies in higher risk trades. That general capacity building
(i.e. real assets and employment growth) appears a strong positive
consequence of the two schemes (especially EIS) is to be applauded.
The purpose of any public scheme is essentially to strengthen
the future capability of the economy. It is the growth
of capacity that is likely to be of more importance than the factors
of profitability or productivity for young and growing businesses
in the short term".
268. The lead author of the report gave evidence
before us. Marc Cowling (University of Sussex) considered that:
"In terms of the study it is very consistent
with general enterprise policy
I see wider public benefits
from having an EIS kind of tax incentive-based scheme, and the
public benefit far exceeds the private benefitthe potential
for knowledge, technology spill-overs from supportive activity
... There is a broad base of evidence that suggests that there
is an equity gap
But we are still not clear where the low
and upper bounds are here ... In terms of the actual findings
of the report, on average 20% of VCTs and EIS invest in brand
new start-ups and my guess is that it is unlikely that any more
than 10% of those businesses would have started up without that
supportive investment
Turning to the results, it is only
the negative results on profit margins, not profit in absolute
terms, so what you are getting is the classic standard economic
textbook growth, short term growth profits trade-off
it
is hard to keep margins up to that point while you are ploughing
money into growth and the kind of uncertainty in the company
the firms are doing all the things you would want these firms
to be doing
My guess is that if I followed these firms
for five more years then the results would be quantitatively significant,
even though they are statistically significant at the moment.
So it is just where they are on the growth curve" (Q 279).
269. When asked about the University of Sussex
study, some of our other private sector witnesses expressed surprise
at the results; some expressed disappointment. John Cridland (CBI)
said "Frankly, the results surprised us. They do not fit
in with our anecdotal experience" (Q 200). Richard Stratton
(LSEW) had "taken a look at the study by the University of
Sussex
They reach the conclusion that if you have a tax
advantage investment the company buys equipment and hires people.
They go on to say that the companies do not produce any profits
after doing this, as a general conclusion of this study. I suppose
I was a bit disappointed by that, although not in some ways surprised
because you have to bear in mind
that the period of the
study was 1999 to 2005. That included the bubble on high-tech
there was a lot of investment which has since gone quite
sour" (Q 239). He still thought the reliefs were a good
thing despite the study (Q 239).
270. The CIOT wrote[97]
that it would "have been useful to test whether behaviours
had really changed with the availability of this financing, as
well as whether the results of any changed behaviour are, overall,
a real enhancement". The LSEW commented that the study did
not reveal[98] "any
better way of targeting these schemes". The AIC's view[99]
was that "This research paper provides useful evidence of
the impact of VCTs and supports continued public policy support
for the VCT scheme".
271. Simon Walker (BVCA) was content with the
University of Sussex study "I would go along with the points
that were made [by Marc Cowling]. As Marc's report says, immature
companies tend to have lower profitability so to some extent the
rather gloomier figures could be a reflection of that rather than
anything else" (Q 280). Philip Shuttleworth (BVCA) saw
the question as whether the schemes are "a good use of taxpayers'
money? If you look at, for example, the EIS scheme, do not forget
that alongside taxpayers' money is, for example, the Business
Angels' greater investment. They are pretty shrewd guys and it
is not as though it is an investment which does not go through
rigorous processes and rigorous due diligence and selection and
I think essentially that limits the downside" (Q 280).
272. Some of our private sector witnesses were
a little worried about the methodology adopted by the study. Richard
Baron (IoD), commenting on the conclusions concerning lower aggregate
profitability and survival rates put it this way "the cause
and effect may be the other way around. It may be that if your
business is marginally profitable or rather high risk given its
likely profitability, you will only attract investors in and your
business will only get started with the advantages of the EIS
and it may be that which biases the outcome" (Q 200).
John Cridland (CBI) agreed "when we tried to rationalise
why the researchers found that result we came to the same conclusion,
that the causal relationship may be different" (Q 200).
273. Michael Devereux (Oxford University) brought
this out fully for us "I have no quarrel with their empirical
evidence
Are these companies growing faster or having more
investment because they have relief, or is it companies which
are growing faster and want to do more investment getting the
funds which this relief helps them to get? The direction of causation
there is still open to doubt and needs further work" (Q 265).
He amplified this for us "Yes. There is a large number of
companies which have benefited from the scheme and a large number
which have not. The paper compares those two to see what differences
there are between them. The problem with that approach is that
this is not a random set of firms. It is not random whether you
get relief or whether you are part of the scheme or not"
(Q 266). Asked whether he was aware of any other study which
would address the points he made, Michael Devereux (Oxford University)
confirmed that he was not (Q 267).
274. When these points were put to Marc Cowling
(University of Sussex), he responded "Randomised experiments
are great but no one will pay for them, and just randomly dishing
out money is not a route government has taken in any response
initiative
The fact that the panel data method used had
80,000 otherwise identical companiessame age, sector, size,
et ceteraat the point of investment, and we had
a time series element to it. So for those firms that were not
brand new at the point of investment we had knowledge of their
activity, their performance prior to investment. So that method
deals with the looking across firms at a given point in time and
also changes within a company over time. That method was chosen
to deal with those issues" (Q 282).
275. We discussed these points with officials.
Geoff Lloyd (HMRC) said that they were not "surprised by
the results of the study. They do draw out the differences between
the effect on performance of those companies that are supported
and those that are not
by the very nature of the companies
at which those reliefs are targeted, the greater risk that is
inherent in those businesses will have its effect in terms of
the profitability, the profit margins and the survivability of
the companies. To that extent, the results are not surprising"
(Q 384).
276. Commenting on the methodology adopted, Geoff
Lloyd (HMRC) accepted that "there are inherent difficulties
in assembling a perfect control group in relation to this sort
of work. The university did a good job in identifying a control
group that was as well matched as it could be with the EIS and
VCT supported companies, with all factors other than the support
as far as possible being eliminated" (Q 384).
277. We consider that this study into the
impact of the Enterprise Investment Scheme and Venture Capital
Trusts on company performance is important, particularly as it
is the first of its kind, at least in Europe. However, we consider
it equally important that the methodology adopted, and therefore
the outcomes, should be made acceptable to most commentators.
278. We therefore recommend that the study
should be re-examined to see if the criticisms from some of our
private sector witnesses are justified and, if so, what can be
done to gauge the effect they would have on the outcomes.
Continuing/Further Studies
279. Although the University of Sussex report
was able to look at the performance of companies over more than
ten years, inevitably uncertainties remained. The period considered
included the dot.com bubble which certainly gave rise to increased
investment and might have skewed the outcome. Richard Stratton
(LSEW) had already made this point in the context of possibly
explaining some of the outcomes (Q 239). That was echoed
by Simon Walker (BVCA), "I do think you are absolutely right
to emphasise the high-tech aspects and the problems that there
are from the high-tech bust a few years ago which have marred
the statistics" (Q 280).
280. Moreover, the reduction in the size of the
qualifying company in 2006, when the gross assets permissible
were effectively halved, in line with State Aid requirements,
could also have affected the impact of the scheme. Simon Walker
(BVCA) saw the reductions as leading to reduced attractiveness
for investment (Q 281). And we noted earlier the view of
Frank Haskew (ICAEW) that "following the changes two years
ago to the gross assets test ... there is very little interest
now in EIS schemes, and that the actual volume of investment going
into them is quite small" (Q 130).
281. Frank Haskew (ICAEW), commenting on the
present study, said "I think what it probably does show is
that there probably needs to be further work done on it, and there
needs to be probably more studies in relation to what I have loosely
called the risk element and the reward" (Q 136).
282. Geoff Lloyd (HMRC) was comfortable with
the idea of further work "We have just got the results of
the study recently, and we will be looking at the database which
is underlying that over the summer. As the study said, there may
be a case for looking at a longer time series in order to get
a better handle on the effect of the scheme. But I come back to
the point about the inherent weakness in relation to demonstrating
categorically cause and effect in relation to these schemes. Yes,
we are looking at whether a further study can be a valuable one
but we need to bear in mind it will not necessarily give us a
conclusive result" (Q 386).
283. We see it as very important that a study
should be carried out in which the methodology is generally accepted
and which can reach a conclusion accepted by as many people as
possible.
284. We recommend that HMRC should investigate
the best way of continuing the study of the impact of the EIS
and VCT schemes on company performance so that generally accepted
conclusions will emerge as to their effectiveness.
81 Enterprise: unlocking the UK's talent published
by HM Treasury and the Department for Business, Enterprise and
Regulatory Reform March 2008 Back
82
Enterprise: unlocking the UK's talent published by HMT & BERR
March 2008 paragraph 4.10 Back
83
The Enterprise Investment Scheme: a consultation document published
by HMT and HMRC March 2008 Back
84
Study of the Impact of the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS)
and Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs) on company performance published
by HMRC as Research Report 44, March 2008 Back
85
Memorandum of Evidence by the ICAEW (Volume II p 40) Back
86
Memorandum of Evidence by the CBI (Volume II p 88) Back
87
Public Bill Committee Hansard 20 May 2008 col 280. Back
88
Memorandum of Supplementary Evidence by HMT (Volume II p 161) Back
89
Memorandum of Evidence by the CIOT (Volume II p 18) Back
90
Memorandum of Evidence by the IoD (Volume II p 92) Back
91
Memorandum of Evidence by Oxford University (Volume II p 125) Back
92
Memorandum of Evidence by the ICAS (Volume II p 41) Back
93
Memorandum of Evidence by the IoD (Volume II p 92) Back
94
Memorandum of Evidence by the AIC (Volume II p 161) Back
95
The Enterprise Investment Scheme: a consultation document: HMT/HMRC
March 2008: paragraph 1.25 Back
96
Study of the Impact of the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS)
and Venture Capital Trusts (VCTs) on company performance: HMRC
Research Report 44: Executive Summary Back
97
Memorandum of Evidence by the CIOT (Volume II p 18) Back
98
Memorandum of Evidence by the LSEW (Volume II p 110) Back
99
Memorandum of Evidence by the AIC (Volume II p 163) Back