Memorandum by the Office for National
Statistics
SUMMARY
This submission provides the statistical evidence
to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs as
background to the investigation of the economic impact of immigration.
It has been drawn together by the Office for National Statistics,
assisted by the Department of Work and Pensions and the Home Office.
The submission contains evidence on the following:
Background (Section 1)
Measuring international migration is complex.
To meet the key requirements for statistics, timely, accurate
estimates are needed of the number of people coming into, going
out of and present in the country for different durations and
reasons (short and long term residence, seeking refuge, employment,
study, etc). This cannot be achieved using a single source of
information. Some of the key sources and indicators are described
(Total International Migration, International Passenger Survey,
Labour Force Survey, National Insurance numbers and the Worker
Registration Scheme).
Numbers and characteristics of immigrants (Section
2)
By 2006, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) indicated
that the proportion of the resident population born abroad had
risen to 10%. In the years 2001 to 2005, there were 2,258,000
foreign born arrivals into the UK for a year or more and 871,000
departures, indicating a net growth of foreign born residents
of 1,387,000. Taking account of a net outflow of the UK-born,
the overall effect of long term migration among the foreign and
UK born was to add 885,000 to the population in the five years
to the end of 2005. Latest figures indicate that, between mid-2001
and mid-2006, the contribution of long term migration to population
growth was 939,000. The submission provides details of these flows
by year, citizenship, country of birth, duration of stay, age
and region. The impact on fertility levels is described.
Population projections and migration (Section
3)
Population projections based on 2006 estimates
will be published on 23 October. They will include a long term
assumption, based on past trends, of 190,000 net annual increase
in population due to migration. This replaces the 2004-based assumption
of 145,000. The 2004-based projections indicated that the population
of the UK is expected to continue to grow, driven by positive
natural change (more births than deaths) and net in-migration.
However, the key demographic challenge for the UK in the years
ahead will be population ageing. The 2004-based projections suggest
that the proportion of the population that is aged over 65 is
expected to rise from 16% in 2007 to 21% in 2027, and then to
26% by 2057.
Employment of immigrants (Section 4)
A significant proportion of foreign-born workers
are working in the public administration, education and health
(32%), distribution, hotels and restaurants (21%) and banking,
finance and insurance (20%) sectors. A8 foreign-born are particularly
concentrated in the distribution, hotels and restaurants (24%),
manufacturing (21%) and construction (14%) sectors. The submission
provides further details of economic activity rates, wage levels,
and proportions self-employed. These are analysed by duration
of time in the UK and compared with the UK born. Figures are provided
on proportions claiming benefits within six months.
How can data on immigration be improved? (Section
5)
In May 2006, the Inter-Departmental Task Force
on international migration statistics was set up by the National
Statistician to recommend timely improvements that could be made
to estimates of migration and migrant populations in the United
Kingdom, both nationally and at local level. The Task Force report
was published in December 2006. The submission summarises the
Task force recommendations, describes improvements made to date
and plans for further improvements in each of the years 2008 to
2012.
How immigration is reflected in the National Accounts
(Annex A)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the headline
summary indicator of economic activity in the UK. There are three
approaches to producing one measure of GDP, namely the production,
income and expenditure approaches.The national accounts framework
allows the capture of immigrants' production, income and expenditure.
While there may be issues of under-recording, when activity is
illegal or informal, the use of Supply-Use balancing to bring
together the three approaches to GDP into a single measure of
growth is thought to minimise the problem. Because data collection,
estimation and reporting are not structured according to demographic
groups, the national accounts framework does not however make
it possible to identify the direct contribution of immigrants
to the measured levels of economic activity.
SECTION 1 BACKGROUND
"Understanding the size and characteristics
of the population and how it is changing is hugely important for
society and the economy. It is essential to have relevant, accurate
and timely migration and population statistics to provide the
evidence base for managing the economy, developing policies and
allocating resources for service delivery ..
For the last few years migration has been the
main factor affecting population numbers in this country. However,
there is now a broad recognition that available estimates of migrant
numbers are inadequate to meet all the purposes for which they
are now required. They are the weakest component in population
estimates and projections in the United Kingdom, both nationally
and at local level. They are much more difficult to measure accurately
than births and deaths, the other major components of population
change."
Karen Dunnell in the Foreword to the Report
of the Interdepartmental Task Force on Migration Statistics.
1. Measuring international migration is
complex. To meet the key requirements for statistics, timely,
accurate estimates are needed of the number of people coming into,
going out of and present in the country for different durations
and reasons (short and long term residence, seeking refuge, employment,
study, etc). This cannot be achieved using a single source of
information. For this reason, a range of indicators and data sources
are needed to illuminate the different requirements. This submission
aims to bring a number of these together to provide a coherent
picture of how the number and characteristics of migrants are
currently affecting the demography and economy of the UK. It then
identifies the changes to statistical sources and methods that
are needed to improve our understanding of the multi-faceted process
that is migration.
2. As a preliminary, it is important to
recognise the range of current sources of information on migration,
how their coverage differs and their individual strengths and
limitations. These are summarised below.
1.1: UNITED NATIONS DEFINITION OF MIGRANTS
Long-term international migrant
The United Nations recommended definition of
a long-term international migrant is:
A person who moves to a country other than that
of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year
(12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes
his or her new country of usual residence. From the perspective
of the country of departure the person will be a long-term emigrant
and from that of the country of arrival the person will be a long-term
immigrant.
This 12-month migrant definition is used for
the UK usually resident population estimate series.
Short-term international migrant
The United Nations recommended definition of
a short-term international migrant is:
A person who moves to a country other than that
of his or her usual residence for a period of at least three months
but less than a year (12 months), except in cases where the movement
to that country is for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits
to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious
pilgrimage. For purposes of international migration statistics,
the country of usual residence of short-term migrants is considered
to be the country of destination during the period they spend
in it.
UK population estimates do not currently include
short-term in-migrants as usually resident in the UK, nor do they
exclude short-term out-migrants from the usually resident population.
Total International Migration
3. Estimates of the total number of people
entering or leaving the UK as long term migrants are produced
by ONS using a combination of sources:
— migration data from the International
Passenger Survey (IPS);
— visitor data from the IPS to estimate
those people who initially come to or leave the UK for a period
of less than 12 months, but subsequently stay for a year or longer
(visitor switchers);
— Home Office data on asylum seekers
and their dependants;
— estimates of migration between the
UK and the Irish Republic.
International Passenger Survey
4. This is a sample survey of passengers
arriving at, and departing from, the main United Kingdom air and
sea ports and the Channel Tunnel. Of those sampled, approximately
1% were migrant interviews in years up to 2007, which amounted
to around 3,000 interviews with migrants entering the country
and 800 with those departing. From 2007, the number of interviews
with departing migrants is being boosted to a comparable level
to those on entry. Further details are given in Annex B.
5. In terms of measuring migration, the
IPS has three main limitations:
— it does not cover all types of migration
(eg land routes between the UK and the Irish Republic, most asylum
seekers and some dependants of asylum seekers);
— as a sample survey, the estimates
are subject to a degree of uncertainty; and
— migration estimates are based on
respondents' intentions, which may or may not accord with their
final actions. Adjustments are required to account for those who
change their intentions, known as "switchers".
6. While the IPS is the main source of migrant
information data used in estimating Total International Migration,
several other key sources are used in this submission. These are
summarised below. Further details can be found in Annex B.
Labour Force Survey (LFS)
7. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a quarterly
household survey run by ONS, representative of the household population
of the UK. The LFS collects a wide range of information including
nationality and country of birth. The data can be used as an indicator
of the non-British or foreign born migrant numbers in the UK.
The population covered is all people resident in private households.
This includes households in multi-occupied dwellings, but excludes
most communal establishments (eg migrants in hostels, foreign
students living in halls of residence). People who have not lived
in the UK for six months are excluded.
National Insurance Number (NINo) Allocations
8. National Insurance Numbers are issued
to individuals over the age of 16 and are used to record a person's
national insurance contributions and social security benefit claims.
New numbers are issued to migrants including:
— All non-UK born nationals aged 16
or over working, planning to work or claim benefits legally in
the UK, regardless of how long individuals intend to stay.
— Dependents of NINo applicants, unless
they work or claim benefits.
— Individuals from overseas not working,
planning to work, or claim benefits—for example, this will
include many students.
— Migrants who are not of working age
and not claiming benefits.
— Those with an existing national insurance
number, for example returning UK nationals.
9. The statistics are derived as a byproduct
of an administrative system not designed primarily for statistical
purposes. For this reason the statistics do not, for example,
distinguish between short-term and long-term migration and hence
do not match the UN definition of migration.
The Worker Registration Scheme (WRS)
10. Following expansion of the European
Union on 1st May 2004, the Government put in place transitional
measures to regulate access to the labour market and to restrict
access to benefits for nationals from new member states. Nationals
of the A8 countries who wish to take up employment in the UK for
a period of at least a month are generally required to register
with the WRS.
11. The population covered on the WRS includes:
— Long-term international migrants
from A8 countries working as employees in the UK.
— Visitors and short term migrants
from A8 countries, staying for over a month, and intending to
work as employees in the UK.
— Dependents of WRS applicants. It
is likely that there is some double counting as dependents may
also be registered in their own right on the WRS.
— Migrants from A8 countries who are
self-employed.
— A8 migrants staying for less than
a month.
— A8 migrants who migrate or visit
the UK for reasons other than work, for example including potentially
many students.
— Migrants from non-A8 countries.
SECTION 2 NUMBERS
AND CHARACTERISTICS
OF IMMIGRANTS
What numbers are relevant to the impact of recent
immigration?
1. According to UN statistics, 191 million
people across the world were living abroad in 2005. Figures from
the UK Census, in 2001, showed nearly 5 million UK residents born
abroad. This represented 8% of the population. By 2006, the Labour
Force Survey (LFS) indicated that this proportion had risen to
10% of the population. This growth provides one indicator of the
effect of recent immigration on population numbers. However it
should be recognised that this does not provide a direct measure
of new arrivals, simply an indicator of net change in the foreign
born resident population.
2. The latest available information showing
the flow of foreign born long-term migrants into and out of the
UK, based on the UN definition (see Box1.1) is for the calendar
year 2005. Figures for foreign born migrants in 2006 will be published
in Spring 2008. In the years 2001 to 2005, there were 2,258,000
foreign born arrivals into the UK for a year or more and 871,000
departures, indicating a net growth of foreign born residents
of 1,387,000. The pattern of flows among UK-born residents over
this period was very different. Around 897,000 left the country
for a year or more and 394,000 returned, resulting in a net reduction
in the UK born population of half a million in the years 2001
to 2005. For these reasons, the combined effect of migration
among the foreign and UK born was to add 884,000 to the population
in the five years to the end of 2005.
3. Trends in foreign born migration are
shown in Figure 2.1. In 2005, there were 489, 000 arrivals of
foreign born migrants and 193,000 departures indicating a net
growth of 296,000 in this population. Overall migration contributed
185,000 to UK population growth, as there was a net fall of 111,000
in the UK born population.
Figure 2.1
FOREIGN BORN TOTAL INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION,
1991 to 2005
Latest figures to mid-2006
4. More recent figures, to mid-2006, are
available for the total numbers of international migrants, without
any separation of UK and foreign born. For the three most recent
years, these recent figures include a relatively small improvement
in the way ONS takes account of those people whose intentions
about length of stay change after entry. Between mid-2001 and
mid-2006, these figures indicate that the contribution of long-term
migration to population growth was 939,000. Both in migration
and out migration have increased since 2001. In the year to mid-2006,
the flow of long-term migrants into the UK was 574,000 and the
outflow was 385,000. The figures for the three years from mid-2003
to mid-2006 were higher than those seen in any earlier years since
current methods for estimating migration were introduced in 1991
(see Figure 2.2)
Figure 2.2
UK TOTAL INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MID-1996
TO MID-2006
Source: Office for National
Statistics: Registrar General's mid-2006 Population Estimates
News Release, 22 August 2007
Citizenship
5. Table 2.1 shows the distribution by citizenship,
as distinct from country of birth. In the year to mid-2006, there
were 468,000 non-British migrants (compared to 505,000 in the
year to mid-2005 and 433,000 in the year to mid-2004). Of these,
citizens from the eight central and eastern European countries
that acceded to the EU on 1 May 2004 (known as the A8) comprised
74,000 in the year to mid-2006, 77,000 to mid-2005 and 20,000
to mid-2004 (the year prior to accession). This change in flows
is illustrated in the half-yearly figures for EU citizens shown
in Table 2.2.
Table 2.1
TOTAL INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MID-YEAR ESTIMATES1:
CITIZENSHIP, 2003-04, 2004-05 AND 2005-06
|
| | |
| | | |
| | | | United
Kingdom
thousands
|
| All | British
| Non | European Union2
| Commonwealth |
|
| citizenships
| | British |
EU15 | A103
| A8 | EU254
| All | Old
| New5 | Other
foreign6
|
|
| Inflow | | |
| | |
| | | |
| |
| 2003-047 | 526
| 93 | 433
| 67 | 21
| 20 | 82
| 195 | 70
| 125 | 155
|
| 2004-05 | 593
| 87 | 505
| 68 | 78
| 77 | 146
| 202 | 69
| 133 | 157
|
| 2005-068 | 559
| 91 | 468
| 73 | 76
| 74 | 149
| 179 | 58
| 121 | 140
|
| Outflow | | |
| | |
| | | |
| |
| 2003-047 | 353
| 195 | 158
| 37 | 11
| 10 | 40
| 57 | 39
| 18 | 61
|
| 2004-05 | 334
| 188 | 146
| 37 | 4
| 3 | 42
| 58 | 35
| 23 | 47
|
| 2005-068 | 383
| 196 | 187
| 45 | 17
| 16 | 62
| 60 | 38
| 22 | 65
|
| | |
| | | |
| | | |
|
| Balance | | |
| | |
| | | |
| |
| 2003-047 | +173
| -101 | +275
| +30 | +11
| +9 | +42
| +138 | +30
| +108 | +95
|
| 2004-05 | +258
| -101 | +359
| +30 | +74
| +74 | +104
| +144 | +34
| +110 | +110
|
| 2005-068 | +176
| -105 | +281
| +28 | +59
| +57 | +87
| +119 | +20
| +99 | +75
|
|
| Crown copyright 2007 |
| | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |
Source: Office for National Statistics: Registrar General's mid-2006 Population Estimates News Release,
22 August 2007
|
1 Based mainly on data from the International Passenger Survey. Includes adjustments for (1) those whose intended length of stay changes so that their migrant status changes (or "switchers"); (2) asylum seekers and their dependants not identified by the IPS (AS); and (3) flows between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.
The estimates of total international migration for the UK shown in this table differ from the international migration component of change for the UK. This is due to a slightly different methodology being used in Scotland and Northern Ireland to estimate international migration for the purposes of population estimation.
|
2 European Union estimates are shown for the EU15 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, the Irish Republic, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden), the A10 (Malta and Cyprus plus the A8), the A8 (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) and the EU 25 (EU15 and A10 groupings). British citizens are excluded from all groupings and shown separately. These estimates do not include the two new member states admitted to the EU in January 2007. These will be included in the 2007 international migration estimates.
|
3 The A10 estimates for the second half of 2003 are also included in the New Commonwealth and Other Foreign columns.
|
4 The EU25 estimate for 2003-04 comprises EU15 for the second half of 2003, EU25 for the first half of 2004.
|
5 For 2004 onwards, the New Commonwealth excludes Malta and Cyprus, these are included for the second half of 2003.
|
6 "Other foreign" are all citizenships that are not part of the EU or the Commonwealth groupings. For 2004 onwards, Other foreign excludes the eight Central and Eastern European member states that joined the EU in May 2004. These are included for the second half of 2003.
|
7 A new assumption for the proportion of visitors and migrants assuming to "switch" categories was introduced in 2004. Therefore, the 2003-04 year uses the previous assumption for the second half of 2003.
|
8 The 2005-06 estimates may change as they include provisional estimates for the first half of 2006.
|
Table 2.2
TOTAL INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, HALF YEAR ESTIMATES1 BY
EU CITIZENSHIP, 2004 TO MID-2006
|
| | |
| | United Kingdom
Thousands
|
| Citizenship | 2004
| 2005 | 2006
|
| January-June
| July-December | January-June
| July-December | January-June
|
|
| EU25 | 45 |
83 | 63
| 86 | 62
|
| EU15 | 30 |
45 | 23
| 46 | 27
|
| A8 | 15 |
38 | 39
| 38 | 36
|
|
| Source: Office for National Statistics
|
1 Half year estimates add to the mid-year estimates
|
6. The latest available information showing details of
reason for visit, age, gender of those entering the country is
for the calendar year 2005. Equivalent detailed information for
2006 will be published in Spring 2008, although total numbers
with limited detail (eg citizenship and region) will be published
in November 2007.
7. Overall, nearly half of all citizens migrating to
the UK gave work-related reasons (see Figure 2.3). "Formal
study" is another important reason for people migrating to
the UK, accounting for almost a quarter of all immigration in
2005. Almost 85% of those A8 citizens migrating to the UK in 2005
came for work reasons, that is, they were "looking for work"
or had a "definite job" to go to.
Figure 2.3
TOTAL INTERNATIONAL IN-MIGRATION BY REASON FOR VISIT,
2005
Source: Office for National Statistics: International
Migration, Series MN no 32
8. The number of immigrants who were in manual and clerical
occupations prior to migration has risen faster than other groups
over the last five years (from 91,000 in 2001 to 147,000 in 2005),
to comprise around a quarter of migrants in 2005 compared to around
one fifth in 2001. In both years, professional and managerial
occupations accounted for about a third and students about a quarter.
The remainder were children and adults with no usual occupation.
Both the number and proportion in these groups fell slightly over
the five years.
Age distribution
9. The age distribution of migrants differs quite considerably
from the population as a whole. Around 40% of long term migrants
to the UK in 2005 were aged 15 to 24, compared to 13% for the
UK population as a whole. Corresponding figures at ages 25-44
were 48% and 29%. A smaller percentage of migrants were aged under
15 (5%, compared to 18%) or 45 or over (7%, compared to 40%).
There was an increase in immigrants aged 15-44, as a percentage
of total UK population, between 1997 and 2005 (Figure 2.4).
Figure 2.4
SMOOTHED TOTAL INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ESTIMATES BY BROAD
AGE GROUP AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL UK POPULATION (FOR EACH
AGE GROUP)
Source: Office for National Statistics: International
Migration, Series MN no 32
10. Statistics on overseas nationals allocated a National
Insurance number (NiNO) and entering the UK in 2005-06, show that
41% were aged 18-24 and a similar percentage were aged 25-34 (Table
2.3). Males (55%) outnumbered females (45%). This gender difference
was evident at ages 25 and over, but not at younger ages. At ages
under 18, those in full time education are excluded from figures
based on NiNOs.
Table 2.3
OVERSEAS NATIONALS ENTERING THE UK IN 2005-06 AND ALLOCATED
A NINO BY AGE AND GENDER
|
| All
| Male | Female
|
|
| All | 100%
| 55% | 45%
|
| <18 | 1%
| 1% | 1%
|
| 18-24 | 41%
| 21% | 21%
|
| 25-34 | 41%
| 23% | 17%
|
| 35-44 | 11%
| 7% | 4%
|
| 45-54 | 5%
| 3% | 2%
|
| 55-59 | 1%
| - | -
|
| 60+ | - |
- | -
|
|
Source: 100% extract from National Insurance Recording
System at 14 May 2007. Percentages are rounded to the nearest
per cent and may not sum due to rounding. Arrivals figures subject
to change as some migrants may take several months or years between
arrival and NINo application/registration.
"-" denotes nil or negligible.
Figure 2.5
TOTAL INTERNATIONAL IN-MIGRATION BY INTENDED LENGTH OF
STAY, 2005
Source: Office for National Statistics: International
Migration, Series MN no 32
11. An estimated 44% of these new immigrants in 2005
intended to stay in the UK for 1-2 years, 19% for 3-4 years and
30% for more than 4 years (7% were not sure). Figure 2.5 shows
that the main increase since 2001 has been in those intending
to stay for 1-2 years.
Regions
12. Over the five year period mid-2001 to mid-2006, migration
contributed to population growth in every region (Table 2.4).
London received the largest number of international migrants (892,000),
but also had the largest number of residents going abroad (491,000).
As a result, migration contributed 401,000 to population growth
in London.
Table 2.4
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: GOVERNMENT OFFICE REGION OF DESTINATION
AND DEPARTURE IN ENGLAND, MID-2001 TO MID-2006
| | |
Thousands |
|
| Region | In Migration
| Out Migration | Net Migration
|
|
| England | 2,445
| 1,554 | 891
|
| | |
| |
| North East | 61
| 48 | 13
|
| North West | 196
| 148 | 48
|
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 213
| 104 | 109
|
| East Midlands | 151
| 87 | 64
|
| West Midlands | 166
| 105 | 61
|
| East of England | 221
| 154 | 67
|
| London | 892
| 491 | 401
|
| South East | 361
| 271 | 90
|
| South West | 184
| 147 | 37
|
| Source: Office for National Statistics
| | | |
|
13. Many local areas experience both high levels of in
migration and high levels of out migration. For this reason, growth
due to migration may understate the volume of change experienced
in an area. Table 2.5 shows local areas where the combined level
of in and out migration was high.
Table 2.5
LOCAL AUTHORITY AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST VOLUME OF INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION PER 1,000 POPULATION
Source: Office for National Statistics
Notes
1. Volume of migration per 1,000 population is calculated
separately for all migration and international migration as (in
migration + out migration)/population *1,000.
2. Rates for the City of London and Isles of Scilly
are based on less than 10,000 population.
- Nil or less than half the final digit shown.
14. Table 2.6 shows NINo registrations by Government
Office Region in 2006-07 and indicates how many of these were
from people coming from the top 10 countries of origin. London
accounted for the largest number of registrations (244,020 out
of 713,450 for the UK as a whole), of which 43,420 were to those
originating from Poland.
Table 2.6
NATIONAL INSURANCE NUMBER REGISTRATIONS IN RESPECT OF
NON-UK NATIONALS IN 2006-07 BY GOVERNMENT OFFICE REGION AND TOP
TEN COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN
Notes:
1. Numbers are rounded to the nearest 10.
2. Total may not sum due to rounding.
3. Numbers are based on 100% data from the National
Insurance Recording System (NIRS).
4. Government Office Region is assigned by matching
postcodes against the relevant postcode directory.
5. Government Office Region counts are based on the
most recently recorded address of the NINO recipient.
6. "-" denotes nil or negligible.
7. Overseas Residents—Foreign nationals who have
registered for a NINO but reside abroad.
8. 2,260 cases are recorded as from countries which
have dissolved (USSR, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia). These have
been allocated pro-rata to their successor countries.
9. 450 cases had no country of origin recorded and
are labelled "Not Specified".
Source: 100% sample at 14 May 2007 from the National Insurance
Recording System (NIRS).
Figure 2.6
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYERS OF WORKERS REGISTERED
ON THE WORKER REGISTRATION SCHEME, MAY 2004 TO JUNE 2007
Source: Accession monitoring report
www.ind.homeoffice.gov.uk/aboutus/reports/accession_monitoring_report
15. Information on the regional distribution of employers
of workers from the A8 countries, based on the Worker Registration
Scheme, show a different pattern to that of all migrants (Figure
2.6). Between May 2004 and June 2007, Anglia had the greatest
number of workers registering with employers in the area (15%
of the total). This was followed by the Midlands and London (13
and 12%, respectively).
Births to migrants
16. The concentration of migrants in the 25 to 44 age
group along with the cumulative growth in numbers born abroad
have contributed to an increased proportion of births where one
or more parents was born abroad. The figure for England and Wales
was 21% in 2000 and rose to 27% in 2005 (Figure 2.7). The latest
figure, for 2006, is 28%. By comparison, the figure in 1975 was
15%.
Figure 2.7
PERCENT OF LIVE BIRTHS TO A FOREIGN BORN MOTHER OR FATHER,
ENGLAND AND WALES, 1975-2005
17. One of the factors contributing to the numbers of
births to foreign mothers is the different levels of fertility
between UK and foreign born. In both 2002 and 2008, the fertility
rate for foreign born was 0.8 higher than for UK born (Table 2.7).
Both groups experienced an increase in fertility rates between
the two years.
Table 2.7
ESTIMATED TOTAL FERTILITY RATES BY MOTHER'S COUNTRY OF
BIRTH, ENGLAND AND WALES
|
| Place of birth of mother |
Year |
| 2002 |
2005 |
|
| All mothers | 1.6
| 1.8 |
| UK born | 1.5
| 1.7 |
| Foreign born | 2.3
| 2.5 |
|
| Uses LFS populations by country of birth and birth registration data for E&W, 2002-06.
|
Source: Office for National Statistics.
SECTION 3 POPULATION
PROJECTIONS AND
MIGRATION
1. National population projections are based on existing
population estimates and trend-based assumptions about fertility,
mortality and migration. Currently available figures are 2004-based
and were prepared by the Government Actuary's Department. They
include both principal projections, using a set of central assumptions,
and variants that make use of a range of high and low assumptions.
New 2006-based projections will be published by ONS on 23 October.
The assumptions to be used in producing these were published on
27 September.[1]
2. For the 2006-based projections, the new long-term
assumption for net migration to the United Kingdom is a net inflow
of 190,000 each year, compared with 145,000 a year in the previous
projections (Table 3.1). It must be stressed that these assumptions
about future migration, along with others in this section, are
based on past trends and are not forecasts. The increase in the
assumption is partly due to taking account of data for two new
years (2004 and 2005) where net migration to the UK has been at
record levels, and partly because of the impact of methodological
changes following recent announcements of improvements to the
estimation of international migration.[2]
These methodological improvements also affect the assumed distribution
of international migration between the countries of the UK.
Table 3.1
LONG-TERM ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE 2006-BASED NATIONAL POPULATION
PROJECTIONS COMPARED WITH ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE 2004-BASED PROJECTIONS
|
| | United
Kingdom
| England | Wales
| Scotland | Northern
Ireland
|
|
| Fertility—Long term average number of children per woman
|
| 2006-based
| 1.84 | 1.85
| 1.85 | 1.65
| 1.95 |
| 2004-based
| 1.74 | 1.75
| 1.75 | 1.60
| 1.80 |
| | |
| | | |
|
| Mortality—Expectation of life in 2031*
|
| Males | 2006-based
| 82.7P | 83.0P
| 82.5P | 80.5P
| 82.3P |
| | 2004-based
| 81.4 | 81.6
| 81.1 | 79.2
| 81.0 |
| Females | 2006-based
| 86.2P | 86.4P
| 86.0P | 84.9P
| 86.1P |
| 2004-based
| 85.0 | 85.2
| 84.8 | 84.7
| 84.9 |
| | |
| | | |
|
| Net migration**—Annual long-term assumptions
|
| 2006-based
| +190,000 | +171,500
| +9,500 | +8,500
| +500 |
| 2004-based
| +145,000 | +130,000
| +11,500 | +4,000
| -500 |
|
* Expectations of life for 25 years ahead given as specimen year. Note these are period expectations of life based on the mortality rates assumed for the year 2031 and do not take account of the continuing improvement in mortality projected beyond 2031. Cohort life expectancies in the 2006-based projections, allowing for the assumed further mortality improvement, will be about 8.7 years higher for a boy born in the UK in 2031 and about 8.0 years higher for a girl born in 2031 than the period figures shown in the table.
|
| ** Net migration includes international migration and cross-border migration between the countries of the UK.
|
| P Provisional. |
3. The long-term assumption of average family size has
been raised for the UK to 1.84 children per woman, an increase
of 0.10 compared with the 2004-based projections. The long-term
UK fertility assumption in official national projections has been
lowered on a number of occasions since the 1960s baby boom,[3]
but this is the first time it has been increased during that period.
This follows several years of increasing fertility rates in all
four countries of the UK.
4. The 2004-based projections indicated that the population
of the UK is expected to continue to grow, driven by positive
natural change (more births than deaths) and net in-migration.
However, the key demographic challenge for the UK in the years
ahead will be population ageing. Based on these projections, the
proportion of the population that is aged over 65 is expected
to rise from 16% in 2007 to 21% in 2027, and then to 26% by 2057,[4]
due to continued increases in life expectancy and the ageing of
the post-WW2 baby boomers.
5. A simple measure of demographic pressures associated
with population ageing is provided by the dependency ratio. This
calculates the ratio of dependents (children and those of state
pension age) to those of working age. Under the Government Actuary's
Department's 2004-based principal population projections, this
dependency ratio rose from 61% in 2007 to 63% in 2027, and then
to 74% by 2057.[5] These
figures assumed positive long-term net migration to the UK of
145,000 per annum.
6. If it is instead assumed that there is zero net migration,
the dependency ratio would be slightly higher at 66% in 2027,
but would rise to 83% by 2057. This is because migrants into the
UK are predominantly adults of young working age.
7. In addition, the published dependency ratios from
the new projections will take account of the Pensions Bill 2007,
which has recently become law. This will raise the state pension
age, in three stages, to 68 for both sexes by 2046. However, since
work on the new projections is not complete, the current submission
is based on the 2004-based projections.
8. As part of their 2004-based work, GAD also produced
a range of other variant scenarios using different combinations
of assumptions about fertility, life expectancy and net migration,
which can be compared to see how each affects the resulting dependency
ratios. These assumptions, along with those dependency ratios,
are shown in Table 3.2.
Table 3.2
DEPENDENCY RATIO PROJECTIONS UNDER VARYING POPULATION
ASSUMPTIONS
|
| Assumptions
| Dependency Ratio, %
|
| Fertility
|
Life Expectancy
| Long-Term Net
Migrations
(000's pa)
| 2007 | 2017
| 2027 | 2044
| 2056 | 2066
| 2074 |
|
| Principal Scenario | Principal
| Principal | 145
| 61 | 60
| 63 | 70
| 74 | 76
| 76 |
| Zero Migration | Principal
| Principal | 0
| 62 | 61
| 66 | 78
| 82 | 84
| 86 |
| High Medium-Term Dependency | High
| High | 85
| 61 | 63
| 68 | 76
| N/A | N/A
| N/A |
| Low Medium-Term Dependency | Low
| Low | 205
| 61 | 57
| 59 | 63
| N/A | N/A
| N/A |
| Young | High
| Low | 205
| 61 | 61
| 64 | 67
| 68 | 67
| 66 |
| Low Migration | Principal
| Principal | 85
| 61 | 60
| 64 | 72
| 75 | 77
| 78 |
| High Migration | Principal
| Principal | 205
| 61 | 59
| 63 | 68
| 72 | 74
| 75 |
| High Fertility | High
| Principal | 145
| 61 | 62
| 66 | 71
| 74 | 74
| 74 |
| High Population | High
| High | 205
| 61 | 62
| 66 | 73
| 78 | 80
| 81 |
|
9. For example, the Low Migration and High Migration
scenarios demonstrate the effects of varying the migration assumption
whilst holding fertility and life expectancy at their central
levels. In both cases, the resulting dependency ratio is little
different to that produced by the Principal scenario. Combining
higher fertility rates with central life expectancy and migration
has a slightly bigger impact on dependency ratios in the long
term.
How confident can we be in assumptions about migration?
10. Migration is the most difficult component of population
change to estimate accurately. It is also by far the most difficult
component to forecast as migration flows are influenced by a range
of socio-economic and political circumstances in sending and receiving
countries, many of which will be difficult or even impossible
to predict.
11. One recent analysis of the accuracy of UK national
population projections[6]
found that the mean absolute error in assumptions of net migration
to the UK has been around 60,000 10 years ahead and 100,000 after
twenty years. A separate analysis[7]
suggests that the accuracy of UK migration forecasts has been
around the European average.
12. However, while these total migration errors are sizeable,
their impact is spread across a range of ages. Many users of population
projections are, of course, more concerned about the size of the
population in specific age groups than with the size of the total
population. And here, the analysis of past UK projections showed
that, in the short to medium-term, projections of the working
age population (where migration is the main uncertainty) are far
more accurate than those for the very youngest and oldest age
groups. For example, errors in projections of the population aged
20-64 10 years ahead have averaged around 1 to 2% compared with
errors of around 10% for the 0-4 or 85+ age-groups.
SECTION 4 EMPLOYMENT
OF IMMIGRANTS
1. The analysis below draws heavily on the Labour Force
Survey (LFS). It should be noted that the LFS figures on the foreign-born
population do not match the UN definition of "long-term international
migration" in Box 1.1 (see Annex B). They cover the foreign-born
household population, irrespective of year of arrival. Also they
do not cover certain short-term migrants and those living in communal
establishments. One consequence of the latter point is that the
number of foreign-born workers in sectors such as construction
and agriculture may be under-reported.
In what sectors and occupations are immigrants employed?
2. A significant proportion of foreign-born are working
in the public administration, education and health (32%), distribution,
hotels and restaurants (21%) and banking, finance and insurance
(20%) sectors (Table 4.1). A8 foreign-born are particularly concentrated
in the distribution, hotels and restaurants (24%), manufacturing
(21%) and construction (14%) sectors.
Table 4.1
PERCENTAGE OF FOREIGN-BORN AND UK-BORN WORKING IN EACH
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, 2006
|
| Industrial Sector | UK-born
| A8 foreign-born |
Other foreign-born |
| %
| % | %
|
|
| Agriculture and fishing | 1
| 1 | -
|
| Energy and water | 1
| - | *
|
| Manufacturing | 13
| 21 | 10
|
| Construction | 9
| 14 | 3
|
| Distribution, hotels and restaurants | 19
| 24 | 21
|
| Transport and communication | 7
| 10 | 7
|
| Banking, finance and insurance | 16
| 12 | 20
|
| Public admin, education and health | 29
| 11 | 32
|
| Other services | 6
| 8 | 6
|
| Total | 100
| 100 | 100
|
|
Source: A four-quarterly average is used, LFS Q1 to Q4 2006.
* Denotes where sample size is too small to report a robust estimate.
- Less than 0.5%.
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
|
3. A large proportion of the foreign-born (49%) work
in higher skilled occupations, while only around 12% work in elementary
occupations (Table 4.2). The majority of A8 foreign-born work
in elementary occupations (38%), as process, plant and machine
operatives (16%) and skilled trade occupations (15%).
Table 4.2
PERCENTAGE OF FOREIGN-BORN AND UK-BORN IN EACH OCCUPATIONAL
GROUP, 2006
|
| Occupational Group | UK-born
| A8 foreign-born |
Other foreign-born |
| %
| % | %
|
|
| Managers and Senior Officials | 15
| 4 | 16
|
| Professional occupations | 13
| 5 | 18
|
| Associate Professional and Technical | 14
| 4 | 15
|
| Administrative and Secretarial | 12
| 5 | 9
|
| Skilled Trades Occupations | 12
| 15 | 8
|
| Personal Service Occupations | 8
| 9 | 8
|
| Sales and Customer Service Occupations |
8 | 4
| 7 |
| Process, Plant and Machine Operatives | 8
| 16 | 7
|
| Elementary Occupations | 11
| 38 | 13
|
| Total | 100
| 100 | 100
|
|
Source: A four-quarterly average is used, LFS Q1 to Q4 2006.
* Denotes where sample size is too small to report a robust estimate.
Totals may not sum due to rounding.
|
How do immigrants' labour market outcomes—including their
employment rates and earnings—compare to those of local
workers?
4. The Labour Force Survey shows that both UK and foreign-born
employment has risen in the UK over the last 10 years. The UK
employment rate rose until 2001 and has remained at around 75%
for the last five years. The overall foreign-born employment rate
has improved to reach 68%, closing the "UK born/migrant employment
rate gap" from 10 percentage points in 1997 to 7 percentage
points in 2006 (Figure 4.1). The employment rate of the foreign-born
has increased as more migrants appear to be coming to the UK for
work-related purposes than in the past. These figures are based
on the standard definition of the employment rate (employment
as a proportion of the working age population). It is worth
noting that employment as a proportion of the total population
is higher for the foreign-born than for the UK-born (54% against
48% in the final quarter of 2006), due to the different age profile
of migrants.
Figure 4.1
UK AND FOREIGN-BORN EMPLOYMENT RATES, Q2 1997 to Q4 2006
Source: Labour Force Survey.
5. The current foreign-born employment rate of 68% hides
a large variation in labour market outcomes for those from different
country groups (Figure 4.2).
Figure 4.2
MALE AND FEMALE EMPLOYMENT RATES BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN,
Q4 2006
Source: Labour Force Survey.
6. Foreign-born men compare quite well to UK men in employment
outcomes, with the exception of those from the Middle East who
have an employment rate of 56%, 23 percentage points lower than
UK men (79%). Further research is needed to understand the reasons
for these differences, but one possibility is that different groups
have different reasons for coming to the UK. Certain groups may
predominantly come to the UK to seek work. Others may come for
non-work reasons, for example due to family considerations, lifestyle
factors, or to escape from poverty or instability in their country
of origin.
7. Employment outcomes for foreign-born women are worse
than those for UK-born women. This is particularly true for Pakistani
women (who have an employment rate of 23%, 50 percentage points
lower than UK women) and for Bangladeshi women (who have an employment
rate of 19%). This difference could arise for a combination of
factors, such as English language ability and cultural differences.
8. The approximate 50:50 gender split of the foreign-born
UK working age population means that low female employment rates
in most migrant groups significantly reduce overall employment
rates. For example, the employment rate for Pakistani men is 6
percentage points lower than for UK men, but the female rate is
50 percentage points lower than for UK females, resulting in the
overall Pakistani employment rate being 26 percentage points lower
than for all UK born.
9. Compared to the UK born employment rate of 76%, foreign-born
from Romania and Bulgaria (94%), South Africa (85%), Australia
and New Zealand (84%), the A8 countries (81%) and EU15 countries
(76%) have higher employment rates than UK born workers.
10. The employment rate of foreign-born is lower than
for UK-born at all levels of education, although the size of the
gap falls as the level of education rises (Figure 4.3).
Figure 4.3
EMPLOYMENT RATES BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION, Q4 2006
Source: Labour Force Survey.
11. The proportion who were economically inactive, in
the final quarter of 2006, was 14% of the working age population
born in A8 countries and 20% amongst those born in the UK and
other EU countries (Figure 4.4). The equivalent figure for all
overseas-born was 26%.
Figure 4.4
PROPORTION OF WORKING AGE POPULATION[8]
THAT ARE ECONOMICALLY INACTIVE, Q4 2006
Source: Labour Force Survey.
12. Overall (Figure 4.5), all foreign-born have a similar
self-employment rate (15%) to the UK born (13%). Some migrant
groups such as those from Romania and Bulgaria (55%), Pakistan
(30%) and the Middle East (24%) have above-average proportions
of employed workers in self-employment. A8 foreign-born are notable
because the proportion in employment that are self-employed has
fallen over the last three years from over 21% in the final quarter
of 2004 to about 11% in the same quarter of 2006.
Figure 4.5
PROPORTION OF THOSE IN EMPLOYMENT THAT WERE SELF-EMPLOYED,
Q4 2004 TO Q4 2006
Source: Labour Force Survey.
13. Since 2001, average UK-born wage levels have steadily
risen while average foreign-born wages have fallen, causing the
weekly wage gap to fall from £76 in 2001 to £28 in 2006
(Figure 4.6). This apparent fall in wages amongst foreign-born
workers is a composition effect. Over time, the proportion of
foreign-born workers from EU15 countries (who tend to be found
in well-paid jobs) has fallen, whilst the proportion from other
countries (many of whom are found in less well-paid jobs) has
risen. In the last three years, the proportion of foreign-born
workers from the A8 countries (who typically take low-paid jobs)
has increased significantly. Overall, there are now a greater
proportion of foreign-born workers in low-paid jobs than five
years ago, and so the average wage for foreign-born workers has
decreased.
Figure 4.6
MEAN GROSS WEEKLY WAGE OF FOREIGN-BORN AND UK-BORN, 2001-2006,
Q4 2007 PRICES
Source: Labour Force Survey.
14. The figures in Figure 4.7 and 4.8 are calculated
on a slightly different basis to those presented above, as they
are based only for full-time workers. They demonstrate that full-time
workers from developed Western economies and the Middle East earn
more than their UK-born counterparts. In contrast, those from
the A8 countries earn noticeably less than UK-born workers.
15. On average, foreign-born workers in full-time employment
have higher skill levels than their UK-born counterparts. This
is particularly true for those from the countries on the left-hand
side of these figures. These higher average skill levels explain
why the foreign-born have higher average wages than the UK-born.
Figure 4.7
MEAN WEEKLY WAGE FOR MALES IN FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT BY
REGION OF BIRTH, JANUARY TO DECEMBER 2006
Source: Labour Force Survey.
Figure 4.8
MEAN WEEKLY WAGE FOR FEMALES IN FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT BY
REGION OF BIRTH, JANUARY TO DECEMBER 2006
Source: Labour Force Survey.
Employment by occupation, level of qualification and year of
arrival
16. As indicated in the first part of this section, figures
that focus on all foreign-born residents in the country cover
a wider population group than recent migrants. Tables 4.3 and
4.4 provide an indication of the relationships that exist between
year of arrival, occupation, level of qualification and country
of birth.
Occupations
17. As shown in Table 4.3, the proportion of those employed
in elementary occupations is higher among the overseas-born (15%)
compared with the UK-born (11%), especially among those from EU
countries (20%). The difference is greater for those who arrived
in the UK within the past five years. For this group, among those
from EU countries (other than the UK), 37% were in elementary
occupations, compared to 19% for those from outside the EU. The
larger percentage for the EU countries is attributable to the
high proportion (45%) for those born in the A8 accession countries.
18. There were similarly notable differences for this
group of recent immigrants in terms of the proportions employed
as "managers and senior officials" and in "professional
occupations". These two broad groups comprised 14% of those
born in EU countries other than the UK but just 5% for the A8-born.
This compares with 27% for those from outside the EU, 28% for
the UK-born in employment and 34% among those from other EU-15
countries.
19. There is a tendency for employment in elementary
occupations to be more common among more recent immigrants. This
is not a particularly age-related phenomenon. Those under 25 and
over 25 showed similar differences in the occupational distribution
for the A8-born compared with other migrants.
Table 4.3
PEOPLE IN EMPLOYMENT OF WORKING AGE1 BY COUNTRY OF BIRTH,
OCCUPATION AND YEAR OF ARRIVAL. UNITED KINGDOM, 2006
|
| | |
| | | | Per cent
|
| Country of birth
| | | |
| |
| | Total
| UK-born | Overseas-born
| of whom: |
| | |
| | |
| Born outside
EU2
| Born in
EU2 |
Born in
EU-153 |
Born in A8
countries4
|
|
| Occupation group | |
| | |
| | |
| Total | |
| | | |
| |
| Total (thousands)5 | 27,132
| 24,111 | 3,022
| 2,099 | 922
| 597 | 275
|
| Total (per cent) | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
|
| 1 Managers and Senior Official
| 15 | 15
| 15 | 15
| 13 | 17
| 3 |
| 2 Professional occupations
| 13 | 13
| 16 | 17
| 15 | 19
| 5 |
| 3 Associate Professional and Technical
| 14 | 14
| 14 | 15
| 12 | 17
| 4 |
| 4 Administrative and Secretarial
| 12 | 12
| 9 | 10
| 7 | 8
| 4 |
| 5 Skilled Trades Occupations
| 11 | 12
| 9 | 8
| 11 | 9
| 16 |
| 6 Personal Service Occupations
| 8 | 8
| 8 | 8
| 8 | 8
| 8 |
| 7 Sales and Customer Service Occupations
| 8 | 8
| 7 | 7
| 6 | 6
| 4 |
| 8 Process Plant and Machine Operatives
| 7 | 7
| 8 | 7
| 9 | 6
| 17 |
| 9 Elementary Occupations
| 11 | 11
| 15 | 13
| 20 | 12
| 40 |
| Year of arrival 1996 and earlier |
| | |
| | | |
| Total—all occupations (thousands)5
| - | :
| 1,638 | 1,183
| 455 | 391
| 17 |
| Total—all occupations (per cent)
| - | :
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 |
| 1 Managers and Senior Official
| - | :
| 18 | 19
| 18 | 17
| 16 |
| 2 Professional occupations
| - | :
| 18 | 18
| 16 | 16
| 21 |
| 3 Associate Professional and Technical
| - | :
| 14 | 14
| 16 | 17
| 12 |
| 4 Administrative and Secretarial
| - | :
| 10 | 11
| 9 | 9
| 11 |
| 5 Skilled Trades Occupations
| - | :
| 8 | 8
| 9 | 9
| 13 |
| 6 Personal Service Occupations
| - | :
| 7 | 7
| 7 | 7
| 4 |
| 7 Sales and Customer Service Occupations
| - | :
| 6 | 6
| 6 | 6
| 9 |
| 8 Process Plant and Machine Operatives
| - | :
| 8 | 8
| 7 | 7
| 8 |
| 9 Elementary Occupations
| - | :
| 10 | 10
| 11 | 11
| 6 |
| Year of arrival 1997-2001 |
| | | |
| | |
| Total—all occupations (thousands)5
| - | :
| 528 | 409
| 119 | 92
| 27 |
| Total—all occupations (per cent)
| - | :
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 |
| 1 Managers and Senior Official
| - | :
| 12 | 11
| 14 | 17
| 6 |
| 2 Professional occupations
| - | :
| 18 | 17
| 24 | 28
| 10 |
| 3 Associate Professional and Technical
| - | :
| 15 | 16
| 14 | 17
| 7 |
| 4 Administrative and Secretarial
| - | :
| 8 | 8
| 8 | 8
| 7 |
| 5 Skilled Trades Occupations
| - | :
| 9 | 8
| 13 | 7
| 33 |
| 6 Personal Service Occupations
| - | :
| 9 | 9
| 9 | 8
| 11 |
| 7 Sales and Customer Service Occupations
| - | :
| 8 | 8
| 5 | 5
| 6 |
| 8 Process Plant and Machine Operatives
| - | :
| 6 | 8
| 1 | 1
| 2 |
| 9 Elementary Occupations
| - | :
| 14 | 15
| 11 | 9
| 18 |
| Year of arrival 2002-06 |
| | | |
| | |
| Total—all occupations (thousands)5
| - | :
| 825 | 487
| 338 | 105
| 230 |
| Total—all occupations (per cent)
| - | :
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 |
| 1 Managers and Senior Official
| - | :
| 9 | 11
| 6 | 13
| 2 |
| 2 Professional occupations
| - | :
| 13 | 16
| 9 | 21
| 3 |
| 3 Associate Professional and Technical
| - | :
| 12 | 16
| 7 | 16
| 3 |
| 4 Administrative and Secretarial
| - | :
| 6 | 9
| 3 | 4
| 3 |
| 5 Skilled Trades Occupations
| - | :
| 9 | 7
| 12 | 7
| 14 |
| 6 Personal Service Occupations
| - | :
| 9 | 10
| 8 | 9
| 8 |
| 7 Sales and Customer Service Occupations
| - | :
| 7 | 8
| 5 | 8
| 3 |
| 8 Process Plant and Machine Operatives
| - | :
| 9 | 4
| 15 | 4
| 20 |
| 9 Elementary Occupations
| - | :
| 26 | 19
| 37 | 19
| 45 |
|
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
|
| 1 Men aged 16-64 and women aged 16-59.
|
| 2 EU-25 countries (including EU-15, A8 countries plus Cyprus and Malta).
|
| 3 France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Demark, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Austria, Sweden, Finland, UK (not applicable).
|
| 4 Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia.
|
5 Includes those who did not state their occupation, but percentages are based on totals which exclude this group.
- Totals for all UK residents by year of arrival not shown as this is only relevant to the overseas-born
: Not applicable.
|
It should also be noted that the country of birth question in the APS (and LFS) gives an undercount because:
— it excludes those who have not been resident in the UK for six months.
— it excludes students in halls who do not have a UK resident parent.
— it excludes people in most other types of communal establishments (eg hotels, boarding houses, hostels, mobile home sites).
— it is grossed to population estimates that only include migrant staying for 12 months or more.
— microdata is only grossed to population estimates consistent with those published in spring 2003 which are significantly lower than the lastest population estimates.
|
Qualifications
20. Table 4.4 shows the proportion of people employed
with a degree or equivalent qualification in 2006 was higher among
the overseas-born (27%) than the UK-born (22%). This was almost
entirely due to the relatively high proportion among those born
outside the EU (29%) and those from the EU-15 countries (28%).
For the A8-born the proportion was only 9%. Among more recent
immigrants (those who came to the UK in the past five years),
all these proportions were lower, including those born in A8 countries
(7%). The proportions of those employed with no qualification
were also notably higher for this group of recent immigrants—18%
for those born in A8 countries, 15% for other EU countries overall,
9% for the EU-15 and 10% for those from outside the EU. These
compare with 9% for the UK-born. Again, as for the occupation
distributions, these differences in qualification profiles do
not appear to be caused by any marked age-related effect, comparing
the distributions for those under 25 and those over 25.
Occupations and qualifications
21. Differences in educational attainment are likely
to explain some of the differences in occupational distributions
discussed above, but not all. For example, recent immigrants with
degrees or equivalent qualifications are less likely than their
UK-born counterparts to be employed in managerial and professional
occupations (50% compared with 62% respectively) and more likely
to be employed in elementary occupations (9% compared with 1%).
Table 4.4
PEOPLE IN EMPLOYMENT OF WORKING AGE1 BY COUNTRY OF BIRTH,
HIGHEST QUALIFICATION AND YEAR OF ARRIVAL. UNITED KINGDOM, 2006
|
| | |
| | | |
| Per cent |
| Country of birth
| | | |
| |
| | Total
| UK-born | Overseas-born
| of whom: |
| | |
| | |
| Born outside
EU2
| Born in
EU2 |
Born in
EU-153 |
Born in A8
countries4
|
|
| Highest qualification |
| | | |
| | |
| Total | |
| | | |
| |
| Total (thousands)5 | 27,132
| 24,111 | 3,022
| 2,099 | 922
| 597 | 275
|
| Total (per cent) | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
|
| Degree or equivalent | 22
| 22 | 27
| 29 | 22
| 28 | 9
|
| Other qualification/don't know |
69 | 69
| 62 | 60
| 66 | 62
| 75 |
| No qualification | 9
| 9 | 11
| 11 | 12
| 10 | 16
|
| Year of arrival 1996 and earlier |
| | |
| | | |
| Total—(thousands)5 |
- | :
| 1,638 | 1,183
| 455 | 391
| 17 |
| Total—all qualifications (per cent)
| - | :
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 |
| Degree or equivalent | -
| : | 31
| 33 | 25
| 26 | 32
|
| Other qualification/don't know |
- | :
| 58 | 55
| 64 | 63
| 60 |
| No qualification | -
| : | 12
| 12 | 11
| 11 | 6
|
| Year of arrival 1997-2001 |
| | | |
| | |
| Total—(thousands)5 |
- | :
| 528 | 409
| 119 | 92
| 27 |
| Total—all qualifications (per cent)
| - | :
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 |
| Degree or equivalent | -
| : | 27
| 25 | 35
| 41 | 11
|
| Other qualification/don't know |
- | :
| 63 | 64
| 58 | 51
| 81 |
| No qualification | -
| : | 10
| 11 | 7
| 8 | 7
|
| Year of arrival 2002-06 |
| | | |
| | |
| Total—(thousands)5 |
- | :
| 825 | 487
| 338 | 105
| 230 |
| Total—all qualifications (per cent)
| - | :
| 100 | 100
| 100 | 100
| 100 |
| Degree or equivalent | -
| : | 19
| 22 | 14
| 27 | 7
|
| Other qualification/don't know |
- | :
| 69 | 68
| 71 | 64
| 75 |
| No qualification | -
| : | 12
| 10 | 15
| 9 | 18
|
|
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
|
| 1 Men aged 16-64 and women aged 16-59.
|
| 2 EU-25 countries (including EU-15, A8 countries plus Cyprus and Malta).
|
| 3 France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Demark, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Austria, Sweden, Finland, UK (not applicable).
|
| 4 Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia.
|
5 Includes those who did not state their occupation, but percentages are based on totals which exclude this group.
- Totals for all UK residents by year of arrival not shown as this is only relevant to the overseas-born
: Not applicable.
|
It should also be noted that the country of birth question in the APS (and LFS) gives an undercount because:
— it excludes those who have not been resident in the UK for six months.
— it excludes students in halls who do not have a UK resident parent.
— it excludes people in most other types of communal establishments (eg hotels, boarding houses, hostels, mobile home sites).
— it is grossed to population estimates that only include migrant staying for 12 months or more.
— microdata is only grossed to population estimates consistent with those published in spring 2003 which are significantly lower than the lastest population estimates.
|
Labour market status of migrants
22. An analysis of the labour market status of migrants
compared with the UK-born population recently appeared in an article
published on the National Statistics website: "Labour market
summary for the household population by country of birth"
(See
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/article.asp?ID=1736&Pos=1&ColRank=1&Rank=1).
23. This analysis of LFS data focused on all the foreign-born
population covered by the survey, not just recent immigrants,
but it picked out some key developments over the four-year period
from 2002 to 2006. In summary:
— Over the four years to April-June 2006, the overseas-born
population of working age increased by 947,000 (26%) while the
UK-born population of working age increased by 44,000 (0.1%).
— The A8 group accounts for just 7% of the overseas-born,
but showed a much larger percentage increase than other groups
over the past four years. There was an increase of over 400% ,
from nearly 60,000 to around 310,000, for this group.
— The employment level for the overseas-born population
increased by 740,000 over the same four-year period, to Spring
2006, while the employment level for the UK-born population barely
changed. Most of this increase (around 510,000) was amongst those
born outside the EU. However the remaining increase of some 230,000
for those born in EU countries, was mostly explained by a very
steep rise in employment for the A8-born sub-group of over 210,000,
from nearly 40,000 to over 250,000 (an increase of more than 600%).
— In 2006, those born in the A8 countries had the
highest employment rate (82% of those of working age). This represented
a substantial increase from around 60% in 2002 and 2003. By comparison,
employment rates in 2006 were 75% for both the UK-born and those
from other EU countries and 64% among those of working age from
the rest of the world.
— The unemployment rate in 2006 among the overseas-born
was nearly 8% among those of working age who were economically
active. The rate for those from EU countries was similar to UK-born
at about 5%, compared with 9% for those from the rest of the world.
— The proportion who were economically inactive,
in 2006, was 12% of the working age population born in A8 countries,
21% for both UK and other EU countries and 29% for the rest of
the world. (27% for all the overseas-born in total).
Benefit claims
24. National Insurance Number (NINo) allocation data
provide information on the inflows of those overseas nationals
who come to the UK in a given year and make a claim for benefits
within 6 months of registration. In 2005-06 the level of benefit
claims was low with only 16,000 foreign nationals claiming a benefit
within six months of registration. This is despite the overall
total of those arriving in 2005-06 and registering for a NINO
rising to 562,000 from 294,100 in 2001-02. The largest number
claimed Job Seekers' Allowance (JSA), but the level was still
very low.
Table 4.5
BENEFIT CLAIMS WITHIN SIX MONTHS OF REGISTERING FOR A
NATIONAL INSURANCE NUMBER BY CONTINENT OF ORIGIN, 2005-06 ARRIVALS
|
Continent of
Origin | 2005-06
Arrivals
| Incapacity Benefit/
Severe Disability
Allowance
| Income Support
| Job Seekers' Allowance
|
| Number
| Number | Rate (Per
1,000)
| Number | Rate(Per
1,000)
| Number | Rate (Per
1,000)
|
|
| All | 562,200
| 1,400 | 3
| 1,300 | 2
| 13,000 | 23
|
| Accession | 262,400
| 300 | 1
| - | -
| 1,300 | 5
|
| Africa | 50,700
| 300 | 5
| 600 | 11
| 3,200 | 64
|
Asia and Middle
East | 105,300
| 200 | 2
| 300 | 3
| 1,300 | 12
|
Australasia and
Oceania | 26,900
| - | 1
| - | -
| 100 | 5
|
European Union
(excluding
accession states)[9]
| 81,400 | 400
| 5 | 300
| 3 | 6,300
| 78 |
Other
| 1,300
| 100 | 66
| - | 10
| 300 | 223
|
| Other European | 11,400
| 100 | 5
| 100 | 5
| 300 | 25
|
The Americas
| 22,700
| - | 1
| - | 1
| 200 | 8
|
|
| Source: 100% extract from National Insurance Recording System linked with DWP benefit data at 14 May 2007.
|
25. The proportion of Accession state nationals claiming
a benefit within six months of registering for a NINo is one of
the lowest next to those from Australasia. Those overseas nationals
from the EU15, Africa and other countries had the highest claimant
rates.
SECTION 5 HOW
CAN DATA
ON IMMIGRATION
BE IMPROVED?
Context
1. It is increasingly important to have high quality
statistics on migration and the population, for policy development
and for planning and providing public services—it is the
largest component of population change. Achieving this aim is
challenging in the context of increasing globalisation, accompanied
by complex individual lifestyles and dramatic changes in patterns
of migration to and from the UK over the last decade.
2. In a period of rapid change, population migration
(that is individuals changing their place of residence) can have
a profound effect on economic and social policy and service delivery.
In these circumstances relevant, accurate and timely statistics
are particularly necessary—to support the development and
monitoring of new and existing policies, planning and resource
delivery and to describe the social change that is taking place.
3. In May 2006, the Inter-Departmental Task Force on
international migration statistics was set up by the National
Statistician to recommend timely improvements that could be made
to estimates of migration and migrant populations in the United
Kingdom, both nationally and at local level. The Task Force report
was published in December 2006.[10]
The challenges in making accurate estimates
4. International migration can often be a very complex
process (see example diagram below). It can involve multiple decisions,
made at different stages in the process of changing residence,
both by the individuals concerned and by others (eg employers
and those involved in immigration control). This has made it difficult
to adopt a single measurement tool that meets all needs.
Figure 5.1
TIMELINE SHOWING THE RELATION BETWEEN INFORMATION SOURCES
AND KEY MIGRATION EVENTS
5. The Task Force Report indicated that tracking changes
in the pattern of migration in a timely fashion (particularly
those resulting from globalisation and EU expansion) has proved
difficult using existing sources, methods and definitions because:
— no systematic register exists of all people entering
or leaving the country;
— population and migration statistics are currently
based solely on the UN definition of a long-term migrant (a person
who migrates for over 12 months, see Box 1;
— limited data are available to separately identify
short-term migrants (3-12 months) or seasonal workers and even
fewer statistics are routinely published about these groups;
— information on intended length of stay collected
at ports (eg on the International Passenger Survey) may differ
from that obtained in-country;
— administrative registers (eg NHS patient registers)
only collect residence information on migrants once they have
registered (by which time they may have moved address several
times). No information on intended stay is recorded and actual
duration in the country is not well documented. These factors
make it difficult to estimate geographic distributions of international
migrants or to link length of stay to employment patterns;
— most administrative sources that identify new
arrivals in the country (eg Worker Registration Scheme) or record
place of residence for all those registered (eg NHS and NI registration),
have little or no direct information on emigration; and
— at present, the only reliable source of information
on emigration is the International Passenger Survey. The number
of emigrants interviewed in this survey each year is relatively
small.
6. The exclusion of short term migrants from these figures
has, additionally, raised concerns about the relevance of the
current range of available population statistics. The numbers
of short term migrants present at any time impacts significantly
on society and the economy.
7. The report concluded that:
— there must be a continuous programme of improvement
to meet changing needs; and
— improvements require central and local government,
devolved administrations and other partners to work together.
8. It identified an aspiration "to move to a situation
where we have timely, accurate estimates of the number of people
coming into, going out of and present in the country for different
durations and reasons (short and long term residence, seeking
refuge, study, etc). Sufficient detail (eg geographic breakdowns)
would be available to meet key requirements for population and
migration statistics. This would be accompanied by the capacity
to interpret trends and anticipate how changes and new uses will
impact on the requirement for statistics".
Recommendations of the Task Force
Recommendation A
Improve information about migrants as they enter or leave
the country:
— Establish a port survey to capture an increased
sample of migrants, especially emigrants. Bring forward key elements
of the e-Borders project, including passport scanning. Improvements
to statistics could be delivered in three to five years.
— Provide more data on controlled migrants from
landing cards, in particular, duration of stay and destination
in the UK. Link data to subsequent information about the migrant.
A sample of all travellers would need to complete a landing card
on arrival in the UK.
— Collect migration-related information from the
points-based information system being developed to manage the
flow of migrants coming to the UK to work or study.
Recommendation B
Improve information about migrants living in this country:
— Survey people living in communal establishments,
who are not currently covered by ONS household surveys. Make more
use of information on migrants collected by local authorities,
employers or agencies providing work for migrants.
— Include in the 2011 Census questions that identify
short-term and long-term migrants.
— ONS and devolved administrations should have access
to timely administrative information that potentially identifies
migrants.
Recommendation C
Link official data sources to relate migrants' intentions
at entry to the UK to subsequent events, such as employment, having
a child and when they leave the country:
— Explore the potential for using a current survey,
the Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study, to provide information
on patterns of employment, children and benefits among migrants.
— ONS and the devolved administrations should continue
to have access to the population statistics items, available on
individual level health registers, that are needed to estimate
migration.
— Access should be provided to individual level
School Census data for statistical purposes, to allow linking
with other sources so as to improve the statistics on migrants
and their families.
Recommendation D
Improve key indicators of migrant numbers and trends:
— Improve the use of statistical and demographic
models to enhance migration and population estimates.
— Convene an expert committee on migration statistics
reporting to the National Statistician to provide an up to date
interpretation of current UK migration statistics.
Recommendation E
Publish all statistics collected across government on migration
and migrants in a single UK-wide report:
— Provide a more coherent picture than is available
from the wide range of disparate information currently available.
— The National Statistics Centre for Demography,
part of ONS, should publish an Annual Report on Migration Statistics.
What improvements are already being put in place?
9. The Government has begun to take action on a number
of fronts to improve the range and quality of statistics about
international migration.
OFFICE FOR
NATIONAL STATISTICS
10. ONS is undertaking a substantial and long-term programme
of work to improve population statistics. The aim of this work
is to improve the quality of both migration and other population
statistics so as to minimise the risk of divergence between the
2011 Census population estimates and those based on the 2001 Census.
However, recognising that differences between two sets of estimates
are inevitable, a key part of the aim of the improvement work
is also to provide a better understanding of the differences that
remain.
11. This work has highlighted several improvements to
methodology that can be made immediately. These will principally
impact on the distribution of the national population to local
areas through making improvements to the distribution of international
migrants. Five strands to the improvements to migration estimates
were implemented on 22 August 2007:
— Combining information from the Labour Force Survey
(LFS) and the International Passenger Survey (IPS) to improve
the regional distribution of national international in-migration
estimates.
— Replacing existing intermediate geographies with
one that produces more robust estimates.
— Improving the way international out-migrant estimates
are distributed between local authorities in each region of England
and in Wales—by distributing IPS figures to local areas
using new factors that reflect propensity to migrate.
— Improving the basis for making assumptions about
the proportion of people who will not realise their original intentions
at the time of travel, in terms of their expected length of stay
in the destination country—these are known as migrant switchers
and visitor switchers.
— Improving the method for estimating the age distribution
of international migrants to and from local authorities in England
and Wales.
12. These improved methods were incorporated in the first
release of mid-2006 population estimates and in revisions to published
estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2005.[11]
13. The improved methods being implemented in 2007 relate
to the usually resident population of each area and the international
migration component of these figures. For this purpose, the United
Nations recommended definition of a long-term international migrant
is used (a person who moves to a country other than that of his
or her usual residence for a period of at least a year). The estimates
do not take account of people moving for less than a year.
14. ONS is currently developing estimates of the numbers
of short term migrants coming into, going out of and present in
the country each year. It is planned to produce estimates at a
national level in October 2007, for the years to mid-2004 and
mid-2005. These will also include estimates of average length
of stay. Methods for producing short-term migration estimates
at sub-national levels are being researched.
15. For the longer-term, ONS is also looking at the feasibility
of producing population estimates on alternative bases, using
information obtained from questions being developed for use in
the 2011 Census and continuous population surveys.
16. ONS development work is focussed on making improvements
in data collection and in the statistical methods used to combine
the information that exists on migrants from across government.
Recent development work to improve data collection and collation
is listed below:
— The size of the sample of international out-migrants
in the IPS was increased from January 2007.
— New questions were included in the IPS from 2004
to help estimate how many people change their original intention
on length of stay.
— Statistical requirements have been fed into the
Home Office electronic borders (e-Borders) programme to ensure
that benefits become available as the programme is rolled out.
— Requirements for collecting better information
about migrants have fed into the development of the new enlarged
household survey, starting in 2008, and into the 2011 Census.
— ONS is currently conducting a review of port surveys
and will report its findings in due course.
— Recent developments on ONS independence and the
Statistics and Registration Services Act have led to the establishment
of an Administrative Data Strategic Development (ADSD) Project
within ONS to ensure improved access to administrative data and
development of record linkage methods.
17. A review of the potential use of administrative sources
in the estimation of population statistics. This paper compares
estimates of international migration at local authority district
level available from three administrative data sources (the Worker
Registration Scheme, National Insurance Number allocations, and
recording of new registrations with NHS General Practitioners).
Comparisons are also made with ONS estimates. It concludes that,
for the majority of local areas, patterns are similar. However
in some areas there are large differences between sources. Among
the most important reasons for these differences are that different
populations are covered, that inclusion in each source is based
on different lengths of stay in the country and that registration
is not compulsory on some of the systems.
HOME OFFICE
18. The Border and Immigration Agency (BIA) is reviewing
what statistics are produced and published and the frequency of
publication. This review, following up a National Statistics Quality
Review (NSQR)[12] was
signalled by the Home Secretary in the House of Commons on 9 July
2007.
19. The review will examine the current scope, level
of detail and frequency of BIA's published statistics on control
of immigration—with a view to more balanced representation
of the Agency's operations and responsibilities.
20. Good quality and timely data within BIA is essential
for both operational purposes and longer term planning purposes.
Thus as part of the Home Office reform plan that deals with data
quality (including its specification of a minimum quality needed
for any published statistics), BIA is striving to improve the
quality of its operational data.
DEPARTMENT FOR
WORK AND
PENSIONS
21. The Information Directorate (IFD) within DWP publish
annual National Statistics on overseas workers allocated a National
Insurance number (NINo) by Jobcentre Plus. Complete NINo-based
data are sourced from the National Insurance Register (NIRS) and
tabulated by year of arrival and registration, continent/country
of origin, region of residence, gender, age band, and subsequent
benefit claims. Data are held at individual level with 100% coverage
and are particularly valuable as a local area indicator (data
are published at Parliamentary Constituency and Local Authority
District level) and for longitudinal analysis.
22. IFD also hold a range of other information that has
been linked, using NINo, to other datasets produced by IFD. One
of these data sets, the Lifetime Labour Market Database (L2) is
a 1% sample of NIRS providing a comprehensive set of information
on NI contributions, tax records, basic pension qualifying years,
from which to build up a picture of migrant workers activity and
employment patterns. Migrant data has also been linked to the
Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS), produced by IFD,
which covers all benefit and employment spells (employment is
based on HMRC P45/46 data).
23. IFD now receive quarterly data on migrant worker
NINo registrations. Subject to successful completion of ongoing
work on automation and quality assurance, IFD aim to release quarterly
data from November 2007. Current tabulations include numbers claiming
benefit within six months of registration/arrival and, as many
are not entitled to claim for the first 12 months, this has limited
information value. The possibility of providing information for
longer time lapse periods than six months is currently being investigated.
24. Work to track cohorts of migrants provides an upper
bound on the numbers that may have left the country. Some tracking
work has been undertaken using 1% NIRS data and, separately, the
Work and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS). The NIRS data is
a rich source of information enabling a picture of economic activity
to be built up based on contribution data. The WPLS is more timely
but a less rich source of information and, unlike the NIRS data,
has the advantage of not being sample based. Until further validation,
and broader quality assurance work on the employment element of
WPLS employment data is completed, the 1% NIRS data is the preferred
source of employment information. The intention is to publish
preliminary results of this work in late 2007/early 2008.
25. DWP has commissioned work from Leicester University
and the London School of Economics to use the 1% NIRS data to
look at economic activity of migrant workers. The first element
of this work is due to report by the end of the calendar year.
26. DWP are considering the following forward work Programme:
(i) Possible work that could be undertaken with existing
data within a two year period
27. Alignment with International definition of migrant—The
International definition of a migrant is based on presence in
the country for over a year. DWP data does not currently distinguish
between "short term" migrants and the standard International
definition. We could obtain a lower bound, for various sub categories,
of long term (over a year) migrants by identifying those for
whom we have benefit or employment data at least a year after
arrival/registration. This would only provide a lower bound to
on- flows but would nevertheless aid international comparisons.
28. Time series—Quarterly information is
available from April 2007 on the number of NINos JobCentre Plus
issued. This would enable work to be undertaken on seasonable
variation by, for example Local Authority Areas.
29. Investigation of patterns of movement over time
between LA—Data is stored which would potentially enable
identification of, for example, where a person who registered
for a NINo in 2002-03 lived in 2006-07 and also, where they lived
in 2005-06 and 2004-05 as well. The quality of this information
is unknown but could be investigated.
(ii) Potential for further work within a five year period
30. The quality of the information that would be accessed
for the following strands of work has not been assessed. Substantive
exploratory work would therefore be required to determine if the
strands warranted detailed work.
31. Extension of the existing preliminary analysis
to include New Tax Credit. The exploratory work to track the
work and benefit patterns for migrants has been undertaken by
matching migrant data to 1% NIRS data and, separately, the Work
and Pensions Longitudinal Study (WPLS). Potentially it would be
relatively simple to update this work using more timely data.
In addition, given some development work, the matching could be
extended to include New Tax Credits and HMRC self-assessed information.
The New Tax data is currently being assessed but is unlikely to
be integrated within the WPLS within the next two years.
32. Links with non-WPLS data to identify family composition
information—Links with the NINo migrant worker data,
if appropriate legalities around data sharing could be satisfactorily
resolved, to CSA data, child benefit data and housing benefit
information might yield information on family composition of longer
term migrants. This could then form a valuable input to population
projections as well as take up education, health etc facilities.
Links to 100% NIRS data would also be possible if it was practical
to overcome the current funding and resource issues around 100%
NIRS data.
33. Links to survey data—there a number
of surveys which, if consent and wider legal issues around data
sharing could be resolved, could be linked to the NINo data to
provide a rich vein of information on migrants. These include
surveys like the Family Resource survey, the Labour Force Survey,
the International Passenger Survey etc. There is a possibility
that the "Research and Statistics" exemption could be,
for example, applied by ONS.
Conclusion
34. A report will be published by ONS setting out progress
and future plans for taking forward the recommendations of the
Inter-departmental Task Force into international migration statistics.
This will provide greater detail on work planned over the next
two to five years.
1
See Population Trends 129 (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=6303&Pos=&ColRank=1&Rank=422) Back
2
See http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14834 Back
3
See Population Trends 128, page 13. Back
4
The figures in this section are based on the Government Actuary's
Department's 2004-based Principal projections, available at
http://www.gad.gov.uk/Population/index.asp?v=Principal&y=2004&subYear=Continue Back
5
The figure for 2007 is based on current state pension age (SPA)
of 65 for men and 60 for women and the figures for 2027 and 2057
are based on a common SPA of 65 for both sexes. Under the provisions
of the Pensions Bill 2007, SPA will be 66 for both sexes by 2027,
and 68 for both sexes by 2057. This would decrease the dependency
ratios at 2027 and 2057 to 60% and 64% respectively. Back
6
Shaw C. Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections:
how accurate have they been? Population Trends 128. Back
7
Keilman N. UK national population projections in perspective:
how successful compared to those in other European countries?
Population Trends 129. Back
8
Males and females. Back
9
Accession States are Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Czech
Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus, Malta, Romania and
Bulgaria. Back
10
See http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/future/imps/updates/default.asp Back
11
See http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/popest0807.pdf Back
12
The final report of the NSQR of "Control of Immigration:
United Kingdom" publications, and the Home Office's implementation
plan, can be found on the National Statistics website.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/quality/reviews/population.asp Back
|
