Memorandum by the National Housing Federation
INTRODUCTION
While international migration is one of the
causes of increased housing demand in the UK, it is one of a number
of factors, alongside natural population (demographic) changes,
internal migration, and increasing numbers of smaller households.
According to CLG figures, 223,000 new households
are projected to form in England every year for the next 20 years.
However, in the period 2005-06, only 163,000 homes were built.
In order to address this increase in housing
demand we therefore support the Government's plan for investment
in an additional three million homes. We are pleased that the
modelling we have done on the need for more affordable homes for
rent and Low Cost Home Ownership (LCHO) has informed the Government's
plans to increase investment in new housing.
KEY MESSAGES
— Regional housing strategies appear
to be planning appropriately for changing populations and household
growth. However, there is continued depopulation of regions with
the most spare stock and/or capacity.
— Natural change and household growth
is driving much of the increasing demand for housing in the UK.
With people living longer and changes to family structures, there
is a marked increase in single person households and a corresponding
decrease in the average size of UK households.
— International migrants are a diverse
group. We need to factor in the demand for housing produced by
immigration and plan to produce the housing needed to accommodate
people who are playing a key role in our economy and society.
GROWTH OF
SINGLE HOUSEHOLDS
Table 1
HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS[1]
|
| | |
| | | `000s
|
| 2004
| 2006 | 2011
| 2016 | 2021
| 2026 |
|
| Married couple households | 9,527
| 9,415 | 9,182
| 9,050 | 8,978
| 8,898 |
| Cohabiting couple households | 1,987
| 2,181 | 2,605
| 2,944 | 3,204
| 3,424 |
| Lone parent households | 1,591
| 1,655 | 1,760
| 1,830 | 1,882
| 1,928 |
| Other multi-person households | 1,421
| 1,452 | 1,538
| 1,629 | 1,708
| 1,775 |
| One person households | 6,536
| 6,816 | 7,562
| 8,384 | 9,200
| 9,951 |
| All households | 21,062
| 21,519 | 22,646
| 23,837 | 24,973
| 25,975 |
| Average household size | 2.33
| 2.32 | 2.25
| 2.20 | 2.15
| 2.11 |
|
Table 1 shows the changing face of England's households,
with many more single person households forming which is reflected
by the decreasing projected average household size. Much of the
increase demand for housing is being driven by these unprecedented
changes in household formation and the increased life expectancy
for UK residents.
THE REGIONAL
PICTURE
For eastern and southern England, where net population is
increasing, change is spread across the separate components. In
London, the pattern is different, and is largely explained by
the "young" character of the capital. The patterns of
in-migration and out-migration here are well documented. People
moving to London tend to be young adults, such as students or
first time employees, while those moving out are mostly older
workers, retired people and young families.
Table 2
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE
| | |
| '000s
|
|
| Natural
Change[2]
| Internal
migration[3]
| International
migration2
| Total |
|
| North East | -2
| -3 | 5
| 0 |
| North West | 3
| -4 | 11
| 10 |
| Yorks & Humber | 5
| 0 | 8
| 13 |
| East Midlands | 3
| 19 | 2
| 24 |
| West Midlands | 8
| -7 | 22
| 23 |
| London | 52
| -84 | 104
| 72 |
| East | 9 |
20 | -3
| 26 |
| South East | 12
| 8 | 15
| 35 |
| South West | -4
| 32 | 5
| 33 |
| ENGLAND | 86
| -16 | 172
| 242 |
|
Table 2 shows that in the north and west of the country where
population increases are smaller, the pattern of net out-migration
to other regions is marked. Natural population change does not
fully compensate for this, and populations either decrease, or
are maintained only by international migration.
WHAT DETERMINES
WHO GETS
ACCESS TO
HOUSING?
Housing associations work with local authorities to meet
local housing needs. Local authority nominations to housing associations
are governed by Part 6 of the Housing Act 1996. Nationally, 80%
of those housed by associations in Year 2006-07 came via local
authorities.
When allocating accommodation, including through a nomination
to a housing association, local authorities must give reasonable
preference to certain groups, for example people who are homeless,
occupying unsanitary or overcrowded housing, or people who need
to move on medical or welfare grounds. This is designed to ensure
that allocation schemes are needs based. However, a local authority
shall only allocate housing to eligible persons and thus need
to test eligibility when people make an application to them:
— Certain categories of persons subject to immigration
control, or from abroad, are not eligible for an allocation of
housing accommodation. This includes for example, asylum seekers;
or those with leave to remain in the UK on the basis that he/she
will not have recourse to public funds and persons who are in
the UK illegally or have overstayed their leave.
— Other categories of people subject to immigration
control are eligible for allocations, for example those granted
humanitarian protection or refugee status or indefinite leave
to remain or exceptional leave to remain, where that leave is
not subject to conditions requiring him/her to maintain him/herself
and dependents.
— EU nationals with a right of residence or EEA
nationals who are classified as workers or self employed are eligible
for accommodation via a local authority.
— People coming from the A8 Succession countries[4]
are treated slightly differently as they are only counted as workers
if they are working and registered with the Workers Registration
Scheme, or have been in continuous registered work for more than
12 months.
— People from Bulgaria and Romania are treated differently
again. They are only entitled to work here (and count as workers
for eligibility purposes) if they are skilled workers or, if unskilled,
are authorised to work by the Home Office.
Housing associations record information about every household
they house and this gives us a good picture of who is accessing
social housing. From April 06 to March 07 the percentage of housing
association lettings that went to non-UK nationals was on average
4.3%, which equates to 6,523 of an overall total of 150,522 lettings.
Of these an average of 1% of the households said they were an
A8 national and 0.9% other EEA nationals.
A8 nationals housed by housing associations were more likely
to report a loss of tied accommodation or racial harassment as
the reasons they needed housing. Overcrowding is the most common
reason given for seeking a housing association home amongst both
A8 and UK nationals, though more prevalent in A8 nationals. A8
nationals newly housed were more likely to be in households of
two adults or two adults with one or more children and less likely
to be single people or single parent families.[5]
HARDSHIP AMONGST
IMMIGRANTS
Our members report that through the wider work they do to
support communities, such as providing community allotments or
play schemes, they are seeing non-UK nationals, who through ineligibility
for benefits and insecure employment face extreme hardship. This
includes people who are ineligible for access to social housing,
or unable to secure access because other people are above them
on the waiting list and are literally roofless or living in extremely
unsatisfactory conditions in the private sector. They are often
living in extremely overcrowded conditions or in property that
is in disrepair and certainly would not meet the Decent Homes
Standard.
This is supported by reports from the Home Office and the
Institute of Community Cohesion (ICoCo) in their studies of the
impact of migration at local and regional levels. The ICoCo study,
based on research with over 100 local authorities, found that
in areas of high economic growth many migrants are living in overcrowded
properties in poor states of repair, mainly in the private rented
sector.[6] Conversely,
in areas of economic decline and aging populations, migrants are
moving in to vacant properties in declining areas, and the local
areas are benefiting from new labour in hard to fill occupations.[7]
CLG statistics[8]
show a slight increase in assistance given to homeless A8 nationals
by local authorities from 2004 to 2007—up from 0.3% of the
overall total of applications in May 2004 to 0.7% in June 2007.
In total during the period May 2004—June 2007 the total
number of applications made to Local Authorities for homelessness
assistance which were accepted by the LA was 902. The number of
applications rejected was 1633.
CONCLUSION
Housing demand is affected by many causes: population growth,
changes in household formation, internal migration within the
UK, and immigration.
As a result of all of these factors in combination, the number
of households is growing at a faster rate than the number of homes
which are currently being built.
If we are to take advantage of the possible benefits from
international migration, and successfully adapt to the demographic
changes which are taking place, housing supply needs to expand
to effectively respond to this additional demand.
20 November 2007
1
CLG Live Tables 404 Back
2
Regional Trends 39, Table 3.7, 2003 Back
3
Regional Trends 39, Table 3.12, 2001 Back
4
Poland, Hungary, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia,
Latvia, Lithuania Back
5
Evidence from our regional consultation on the impacts of migration.
Home Office Migration Impacts Forum. October 2007 Back
6
Estimating the scale and impacts of migration at the local level.
Institute of Community Cohesion / Local Government Association,
November 2007. p45 and p49 Back
7
Ibid. p45 Back
8
Tables 628 Social housing: local authority assistance to A8 and
A2 (2007) nationals under homelessness provisions of the 1985
and 1996 Housing Acts: decisions on applications for assistance
by A8 nationals, England, Department of Communities and Local
Government, 2007 Back
|
