Memorandum by the Local Government Association
1. The Local Government Association promotes
better local government. It works with and for member authorities
to realise a shared vision of local government that enables local
people to shape a distinctive and better future for their locality
and its communities. The Local Government Association aims to
put local councils at the heart of the drive to improve public
services and to work with government to ensure that the policy,
legislative and financial context in which they operate, supports
that objective.
INTRODUCTION
2. The Local Government Association welcomes
the committee's interests in this matter. There is now wide consensus
that the official statistics on international migration and therefore
on population are inadequate nationally and locally. We welcome
steps initiated by the Office for National Statistics to find
long term remedies to address these weaknesses. However, we believe
that alongside this, urgent action is necessary to better use
available data to understand recent and rapid local population
changes resulting from migration. This is because the evidence
clearly shows that the changes are widespread and are placing
demands on local public services that are not reflected in funding
formulae for these services. They rely on out of date and inaccurate
population figures.
3. Our submission particularly draws on
a report commissioned by the Local Government Association from
the Institute for Community Cohesion (ICoCo), entitled "Estimating
the scale and impacts of migration at the local level." The
report is due for publication in October. The work reviews the
available evidence on the scale and nature of recent population
change and impacts on local public services. It is based on responses
from 100 local authorities in a specially commissioned survey
conducted in August 2007 alongside desk research evaluating sources
of population data and a wide range of existing local and national
studies on this subject.
4. The submission addresses a selection
of the questions to which the inquiry seeks answers. These are
questions 8, 9, 10, 13 and 15. These questions provide the framework
for the response.
How does immigration affect the public finances?
[Question 8]
5. In relation to direct impacts on public
finances, taxes paid by in-migrants flow to the centre but demands
on services and the wider impacts on communities occur locally.
The ICoCo report states that "it is difficult to see how
far [and we would add whether] the [financial benefits] have passed
to the local level and at what rate".
6. In-migration has increased the demand,
and hence the amount spent, on a range of local services (detailed
in the next section). The distribution of central government funding
to local authorities is intended to take account of population
size and hence likely demand. Data inadequacies described below
have vitiated this process, for example, in calculating the revenue
support grant. More specifically, current funding formulae use
2004-based population projections for local authorities, which
therefore do not take account of the increase in in-migration,
particularly from Eastern European Accession countries, since
then.
7. Standard definitions of in-migrants,
and methods used to measure migration, fail to capture the reality
of service pressures in two important ways. First, the definition
of migrants misses those who state the intention of staying for
less than 12 months. There is considerable evidence, both quantified
and anecdotal, that suggests that there is substantial "short-term"
migration to the UK. Second, the ICoCo report found considerable
pressure on services in some authorities from population turnover,
or "churn", even where net migration change was not
great.
How has immigration affected public services?
[Question 9]
8. Respondents to ICoCo were mainly positive
about the overall impact that in-migration had on the local economy.
Often in-migrants were found to be sustaining local businesses,
and working in hard-to-fill occupations. In some instances authorities
had positively encouraged in-migration as a solution to imbalance
in the local population and workforce profiles. Nevertheless,
population growth has resulted in some areas in pressures on services,
and sometimes in resentment and tensions on the part of host communities.
Particular demands vary depending on the demographic characteristics
of the migrant—for example whether they have children and
require children's services; whether they are relatively young
and thus less likely to require health services. This section
describes the main impacts as reported by authorities.
9. "Churn" in schools has created
pressure around translation services, numeracy and literacy of
young children, understanding cultural differences, mid-term arrivals,
lack of records and assessments and a range of other needs. The
reduction in Ethnic Minority Achievement Grant funding is a further
concern. The Association of London Government (2005) quantified
the additional administration for registering new children at
non-standard times as £400 for primary children and £800
for secondary age, but this excludes other unquantifiable work
for extra learning and teaching support staff and liaison with
other services to meet the child's needs.
10. It can be highly complex to investigate
the family situation of transient families and ensure effective
safeguarding of children, the complexities being exacerbated by
language difficulties and cross-cultural issues. The range of
agencies involved in child protection face particular challenges
where child mobility is high and records and assessments are not
immediately available.
11. Language barriers mean that meeting
the basic information needs of migrants, translation and interpretation,
supporting complex advice needs and communicating in emergencies
are issues faced by all public sector partners. There is insufficient
provision of English as a Second Langauge (ESOL) to meet the increasing
demand. Part of the problem is the shortage of ESOL teachers and
the more restrictive rules that have been announced around the
funding of ESOL will make the problem worse (for example that
more basic levels do not attract funding yet many migrants need
to gain basic proficiency in English).
12. In those areas which are experiencing
significant economic growth many migrants are living in overcrowded
properties in a poor state of repair, sometimes with a high fire
risk or other health and safety problems. One unitary authority
estimates the cost of regulation and inspection at £400 per
property. Inspection costs are also incurred for caravans and
mobile homes, converted buildings and other accommodation arranged
by employers. Demand on social housing has, as yet, been
low but the costs of increased housing benefit processing and
issues of homelessness and destitution are issues in some areas.
The complexities of supply, demand, entitlement and need pose
short and longer-term challenges.
13. Community cohesion is seen as
a high priority by most respondents who were proactive in seeking
to assess and meet the needs of migrants and there are many examples
of good practice across councils and agencies. Many respondents
reported tensions and different levels of conflict and had put
action plans in place to give information to both migrants and
the host communities, engaging with employers and housing providers
and developing inter-agency approaches. A number of authorities
were working with local media to provide accurate information
on the size and characteristics of the in-migrant population.
14. Many authorities reported that migrants
were more likely to be victims of crime than perpetrators, though
underreporting was suspected, not least because many migrants
had low confidence levels in the police in their home countries.
Vehicle related crime including absent or forged documentation
and drink driving is being addressed by information campaigns
in some police authorities. Fire and Rescue services are
also producing publicity in other languages, particularly regarding
risks in multi-occupied dwellings.
15. The impact on health is increasing,
albeit from a relatively low level given the age profile of the
in-migrant population. Issues include inappropriate use of accident
and emergency services instead of GPs and increased use of maternity
services, often late, making planning difficult. Mental health
needs are being identified particularly for asylum seekers and
refugees who have experienced trauma.
16. Many authorities highlighted housing
market issues, including the sharp rise in the price of cheaper
properties, exacerbated by purchase to rent to migrants, a rise
on homelessness and a decline in numbers of first time buyers.
Sometimes these were ripple effects, originating in in-migration
to neighbouring authorities rather than directly to their own.
Several cited the need for good quality information to facilitate
housing need projections.
17. The varying impact of immigration needs
to be seen in the context of the continuing impact of the costs
of asylum in dispersal areas, especially in relation to
funding shortfalls for the costs of Unaccompanied Asylum Seeking
Children leaving care and for those without recourse to public
funds.
How does the impact of immigration vary across
different regions of the UK? [Question 10]
18. The demands on services vary with the
size and nature of in-migrant flows to a locality. In-migrants
are not homogeneous. Some come to work, some to study, some to
retire. Some travel as family groups, some come to join family
already here and some travel alone. The flows come from many countries.
In-migration from the A8 Accession states—and particularly
Poland—has attracted much media comment. Yet the movement
from A8 states in 2005-06 constituted only 16% of long-term migration
(ie for more than 12 months—there is evidence of substantial
shorter-term migration from A8 states in particular).
19. One reason for the attention paid to
migration from the A8 states is that it has been more geographically
dispersed. A substantial number of migrants from Poland, Lithuania,
Slovakia and to a lesser extent other European states such as
Portugal have gone to towns and rural areas with little previous
experience of receiving international migrants. The map attached
shows the distribution of A8 migrants registering for National
Insurance numbers over the year 2006-07. Different sources would
show slightly different patterns, but there is a clear concentration
in an area stretching from Herefordshire to Norfolk, much of it
rural but including towns such as Northampton, Peterborough and
Boston. Alongside that, there is movement to towns which already
have a significant proportion of people born abroad, such as Luton
and Slough, and to some London boroughs.
20. In contrast, recent flows of migrants
other than those from Eastern Europe have principally been to
conurbations and university cities, as the other map indicates.
How can data on immigration be improved? [Question
13]
21. To answer this question we need to consider
the ways in which currently available data are inadequate. In
the first instance:
— Measurement of international migration
at the national level is inadequate in that it is based on a survey
with a small sample of migrants, and does not count short-term
migration or (more understandably) illegal migration.
— The allocation of international migrant
numbers to local authority level is based on evidence from the
Labour Force Survey (which again has small samples at authority
level) and the 2001 Census, coupled with assumptions about migrant
behaviour.
— The methods for tracking migration
within the UK (whether by UK nationals or international migrants)
are questionable.
— A range of administrative data sources
gives sometimes quite different indications of migrant flows at
the local authority level (the ICoCo report shows that, for some
authorities, estimates from National Insurance or GP records differed
from the official ONS migration figures by a factor of four; and
that school census records sometimes give substantially different
indications of numbers to official population estimates).
— In a number of areas the official
estimates simply do not reflect the experience of service providers
on the ground.
22. The inadequacy of data currently available
does not appear to be a matter of contention. The National Statistician,
the chairman of the Statistics Commission and the governor of
the Bank of England have all observed that statistics on migration
are inadequate for public policy needs.
23. The ICoCo report makes a number of recommendations
for improvement, to which we add some observations of our own.
24. The ICoCo recommends that the 2006 recommendations
of the Inter-Departmental Task Force on migration statistics should
get full financial and legislative backing, and be progressed
with greater urgency, with full support from government departments.
We would add that this support should include explicit ministerial
commitment to the proposals. This should do much to improve statistics
at a national level, and should improve estimates of short-term
migration.
25. Action is also needed to improve estimates
at local authority level and below. To this end ICoCo recommended
that a working party be established to examine ways in which administrative
sources could be adjusted to provide better information on migration
(these sources including National Insurance, Schools Census, Higher
Education Statistics Authority, Electoral Registration, Workers
Registration Scheme and NHS Flag 4 data).
26. ICoCo recommended that departments should
take a more consistent approach to making administrative data
available at small area level (for example wards or postcode areas).
27. In addition, we would recommend a consideration
of other countries' approaches to measuring international and
internal migration. The UK is not alone in experiencing increased
migration, and hence is not alone in grappling with problems of
measurement. Other countries' solutions may not be appropriate—but
equally there may be much to learn.
28. Finally, we would urge an element of
triangulation in producing official population estimates. That
is to say, results from initial modelling should be tested against
other sources, and if possible evidence from other sources should
be included in the modelling process.
To what extent have inadequate data affected public
policy? [Question 13]
29. Inadequate data on migration has affected
policy within local authorities in three broad ways:
— Erroneous population estimates for
some authorities have affected the level of funding that the authorities
have. The policies and priorities of those authorities have therefore
been constrained.
— Well-targeted service provision depends
on knowing the size and characteristics of the local population.
Where the data are inadequate targeting will be less precise than
it could and should be.
— An ill-informed national debate around
numbers can have a negative effect on community cohesion.
Should more be done to help immigrants boost their
productivity in the UK? [Question 15]
30. There is some evidence that a proportion
of recent in-migrants to the UK are over-qualified for the jobs
which they do. This is true of some migrants from Eastern Europe,
for example. A better match between skills and occupations should
benefit not only the individuals but the economy as a whole.
31. Moreover, if well-qualified in-migrants
are able to move into jobs which better match their skills, the
risk of them competing for lower-skilled jobs with members of
the host community should diminish. This could reduce community
tensions.
32. Language problems are often cited by
local authorities as a barrier to a better match between skills
and jobs in migrant communities. Many authorities cite problems
with funding for English as a Second Language courses (as identified
in paragraph 11). This is an area where government investment
should yield a worthwhile return.
12 October 2007
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