Memorandum by Slough Borough Council
1. Migration has had a major impact at a
local level in Slough. Councils have long been at the forefront
of managing these impacts in terms of local economies, community
cohesion, cultural differences and continuity of service provision
and not just in recent years.
2. What is different in the current waves
of migration to those gone past is not so much in scale and speed
of migration (although this has been unprecedented since EU expansion
in 2004) but in the failure of statistics to keep pace and reaction
of central government to the management of the impacts resulting
from migration.
3. Slough Borough Council has been responsible
for implementing innovative services, conducting research and
community cohesion programmes to meet the challenges of the impacts
of migration since the turn of the century. The town has successfully
integrated migration since the 1920s.
— 1920 migration from Wales, the North,
Scotland, Ireland and the South to take advantage of growing local
economy
— Polish migration in the second world
war (130,000 Poles arrived in Britain during the first few years
after the war)
— Windrush and Indian subcontinent
immigration in 50s, 60s and 70s
— Current EU A8 and A2 migration.
4. As a result the town has the most diverse
ethnic mix outside London with 37% of the population being classed
as Black or Ethnic Minority, at the last census.
5. In a report entitled Colour and Communities
examining the effects and impacts of migration from the Indian
sub-continent and the West Indies in 1964 many of the impacts
highlighted then mirror those being faced by the council today.
6. "The fact remains that Slough has
a successful history of accepting large numbers and great varieties
of people from other places. Past experience has demonstrated
Slough's ability to assimilate newcomers without severe or lasting
difficulties, and in virtually all cases the newcomers have added
something of genuine value to the life of the town. Perhaps it
is not too unrealistic to think this could happen once more ..."
William H. Israel, Council Officer reporting on migration in 1964.
7. The difference between today and 1964
is that the impacts were taken seriously by the government and
the reaction to alleviate them was collegiate, swift and effective.
8. There are many direct impacts resulting
from significant migration to a local authority area such as pressures
to schools coping with the influx of new intake, labour market
distortions, housing, policing, fire prevention and refuse collection.
However, the most significant impact remains an indirect one resulting
from poor management systems within the UK and an unresponsive
centrally controlled mechanism for local government funding.
9. Poor measurement of local populations
in "hyper-diverse" communities has serious consequences
to the management of migration at a local level. The failure to
track migration accurately to and within the UK results in inaccurate
population estimates with corollary under-funding for those areas
where official statistics prove inadequate. This in turn results
in pressures to all services, community cohesion risks and poor
central and local planning of services. The council has published
incontrovertible evidence of a population undercount in the town
due to the inability of official statistics to measure current
migration movement accurately (see Appendix A).
10. It is tempting in the debate around
impacts of migration to look solely at the visible effects on
the ground. Although this is important they should be viewed with
consideration of the indirect impacts of poor management of data
and statistics.
11. The following evidence illustrates these
points which results from a series of independent studies and
seminars the council has conducted into the impacts of migration
to the town since 2002 (see Appendix A).
What are the numbers and characteristics of recent
immigration? How can data on immigration be improved? How far
has inadequate data affected public policy?
12. At the 2001 Census Slough's population
grew by 14% to 120,600. However, census returns were low at 86%
and there is a possibility this growth underestimated the true
population of Slough.
13. Between 1991 and 2001, Slough experienced
the ninth fastest population increase of any local authority in
the country. The population of Slough is now reported to be the
second largest decreasing population in the country. This is due
to inadequate measurement of migration used in mid year estimates
since the 2001 census.
14. Mid year estimates are determined by
data for the rate of births, deaths and net migration in local
authorities. According to the ONS Slough's population has declined
considerably since 2001 by 4,000 people or 3.3%. The 2004 mid
year estimates puts Slough's population at 117,600.
15. The ONS estimates only 300 net international
migrants came to Slough in 2004. National Insurance numbers issued
in Slough for the 18 month period between 1 April 2004 and 30
September 2005, broken down by nationality show that of the 9,048
new national insurance numbers issued in Slough over an 18 month
period to October 2005 only 150 (1.7%) were for British citizens.
By contrast, over 41% were received from Polish and Dutch (Somalian)
nationals.
16. Slough's local data sets such as electoral
register, housing stock, school rolls and service pressures all
suggest a strong growth in population. The council estimates the
true population to be between 125-135,000.
17. Slough Borough Council commissioned
the Greater London Authority Data Management and Analysis Group
(DMAG) to conduct a study of its population compared to ONS statistics.
The analysis found that when the DMAG team's figures and the ONS
projection for 2006 are compared the ONS figure could be underestimating
the actual population level by as much as 7,000 people.
18. The Office for National Statistics uses
methodology to determine migration numbers that simply is not
fit for purpose. The International Passenger Survey is conducted
at a handful of ports of entry and samples only 0.2% of what is
believed to be all passengers arriving in the UK. (250,000 people).
19. Of these 250,000 interviews only 3,100
were identified as migrants in 2003 (1.2%). The numbers are then
apportioned to local authority level using formula based analysis.
The room for error is enormous.
20. Warnings have been constant and consistent
about the need to improve migration statistics.
21. "Shortcomings in measuring migration,
for instance, led to difficulties in getting robust results from
the 2001 Census, the main source for allocating over £100
billion to local authorities and the NHS each year. Work by the
Statistics Commission three years ago indicated that there was
very wide agreement across Whitehall that statistics relating
to migration, both internationally and within the UK, need urgently
to be improved. But thus far we have seen little evidence of real
progress being made." Professor David Rhind, Chairman
Statistics Commission in a letter to Tony McNulty MP Home Office
Minister 8th May 2006.
22. Although there has been some movement
recently towards a plan of action to address the deficiencies
in migration estimates the Office for National Statistics does
not estimate it will bear fruit for between 5-10 years.[8]
23. The council would like to see substantial
investment in a radical solution to measuring migration rather
than the current intermediate efforts using the Labour Force Survey
to supplement the International Passenger Survey. The council
considers this to be "tinkering" round the edges of
a much more fundamental problem. The revisions have failed to
address the undercount in Slough.
24. The ONS has recently published "improved"
migration estimates using the Labour Force Survey to supplement
the IPS. However, this is another flawed data set as it misses
many migrants. It does not survey communal properties such as
hostels and is a small sample size of the local authority areas.
The results do not reflect what is happening on the ground.
25. The Labour Force Survey has been used
to distribute migration around the UK. Using the new methodology
means that Slough has actually seen a decrease of 800 net international
in-migrants since 2002. However, the new figures show that less
people are leaving the town making a net growth in total population
of 1,100 people since 2002.
26. The council is also concerned that at
a time when there is an obvious need for increasing funding to
the Office for National Statistics in order for it to cope with
this challenge the organisation is losing experienced staff, relocating
to Newport and undergoing tough funding restriction.
27. "It is ironic, and a source of
concern, that the ONS can't produce statistics on its own performance.
Both the ONS and HMRC need to start listening to their users and
working with them to alleviate the problems—real and perceived—arising
from the efficiency programme." Treasury Select Committee
July 2007.
28. Public and Commercial Services union
general secretary Mark Serwotka said: "One of the central
aims of the efficiency programme was that services wouldn't suffer,
yet day in day out we are seeing backlogs and services damaged."
Treasury Select Committee July 2007.
29. Slough estimates it will lose £15million
in grant up until the next census in 2011 because of inaccurate
population estimates. This is only the tip of the iceberg as the
authority will also lose funding for the growth of our population—it's
a double financial whammy.
30. Slough Borough Council has asked for
a specific grant to be made available for those areas that are
suffering an undercount due to inadequate population data. This
could be constructed using proxy data such as local data sets
(electoral register, school rolls, etc), the Workers Registration
Scheme and national insurance numbers.
31. If this does not happen before three-year
grant settlements are decided later this year council will be
bound by a further period of under-funding resulting in community
cohesion issues.
32. Chairman of London Councils Councillor
Merrick Cockell, 30/07/07 said: "The government is still
not taking this issue seriously enough. We must get things right
before the three year funding settlement kicks in. These inaccurate
population counting methods used by the ONS do not reflect the
actual patterns of migration in London. The government needs to
get them up to scratch quick or London's councils will be locked
into an inadequate finance settlement for the next three years.
This would put London's already stretched council services in
danger of being severely overburdened."
How has immigration affected public services such
as health care, education and social housing? How does this differ
across the country?
Housing
33. The fast pace of the changing patterns
of our communities has created more pressure on space and resources
and is significantly stretching the council (Slough was the 2nd
most overcrowded town in the country at the 2001 Census).
34. The council has evidence of a rapid
increase in the numbers of households of multiple occupation (HMOs):
Slough's own database now holds in excess of 1,050 records of
small HMOs. Officers calculate that it will cost over £400k
of new funding to license Slough's HMOs in line with the new Housing
Act 2004 requirements.
35. "Sheds with beds" (as described
in a recent Panorama investigation Migration: How we lost count
July 2007) have been constructed in the back gardens of properties
in Slough. These temporary structures house large numbers of migrants
on their arrival to the town. These structures do not have planning
permission for residential use. The council needs specific funding
in order to deal with the enforcement of regulations and with
the consequences of "closing down" these inappropriate
and dangerous forms of accommodation.
36. However, because the government use
flawed population data in its own projections of housing need
the official estimates for Slough show some perverse results.
The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) has
recently published[9]
new projections of households for England and the Regions up to
2029.
37. The figures for Slough, when compared
with the England, London and South East totals are surprising
and disappointing. According to the latest DCLG figures:
— The number of households within Slough
are projected to remain static from 2004 to 2016.
— The number of households within Slough
will only increase by 3,000 between 2004 and 2029.
38. According to the DCLG projections, Slough
will experience the 7th lowest increase in its household population
between 2004-29 of any local authority in the country. Slough
is the only Unitary Authority in the Country projected to receive
a 0% increase in its number of households until 2016. Only five[10]
other authorities are in a similar position.
39. These housing projections show a complete
disregard of the reality on the ground of the impacts of migration
to places such as Slough. As more "sheds with beds"
appear in the town central planning using flawed data suggest
the town needs zero extra households. As such the concerns of
the council and bids for extra resource have fallen on deaf ears.
40. "But as DCLG has had no evidence
from the ONS that the population estimates in Slough or any other
similar authority are under-estimated, there is no objective case
for considering a specific grant." Letter from Phil Woolas,
Minister for Local Government, to Cheryl Coppell, Chief Executive
SBC on 22nd June 2006.
41. Although the ONS does not give clear
evidence of either an under or overcount of local authority areas
it does make clear the limitations of the data it produces and
has given advice to central government of the use of its estimates:
42. "There is now a broad recognition
that available estimates of migrant numbers are inadequate for
managing the economy, policies and services." Letter from
Karen Dunnell, National Statistician in May 2006 to four government
departments.
43. "Until our research has concluded
you may wish to consider how the estimates and projections are
used and whether there is any scope for recognising the particular
uncertainty for those parts of the country that are affected by
relatively high levels of migration." Letter from Glen Watson,
Director Social Reporting & Analysis Group Office for National
Statistics to Lindsay Bell, Director, Local Government Finance
CLG December 2005.
Education
44. The council has responded innovatively
to the sharp increase of children new to the UK accessing our
schools. It was proving increasingly difficult to place new migrant
children, particularly at secondary level, into our schools as
a lack of recorded educational need of the children meant they
were largely an "unknown quantity". It is essential
to place children in an education stream where they can succeed
and where existing pupils will not be disrupted. In response to
this and in partnership with our head teachers we established
the Slough Assessment Centre at Beechwood School at which new
migrant children spend time having their educational needs assessed
before mainstreaming.
45. During the summer holiday period 2006,
89 secondary aged pupils arrived in Slough from other countries.
The Assessment Centre can only cater for a maximum of 8 pupils
at a time, although 4-6 provides a more effective teacher: pupil
ratio.
46. The nature and mix of migration in an
18 months' period is demonstrated on school rolls. 888 pupils
from non English speaking countries moved onto Slough school rolls
over that time. 200 were from Poland, 185 from Pakistan, 104 from
Somalia and 91 from India. The remainder were from other African,
European or other Asian countries. Two primary schools in Slough
have had to take in 60 Somalian and 50 Polish children respectively
in just one term.
47. The centre also provides support for
newly arrived parents. Many families new to the country have complex
needs and require a level of information, advice or support that
cannot usually be met by schools. By consulting new arrivals and
their parents about their experiences and needs, the Assessment
Centre has been able to provide comprehensive and accessible information.
The cost of this, not least translation expenses, is considerable.
48. This single centre costs £92,000
a year to run but is proving to be insufficient. The council estimates
it needs additional staffing for the Secondary Assessment Centre
to enable more pupils to be admitted during peak times of the
year. Two Primary Assessment Centres are also needed to improve
the admissions process for younger new arrivals, help them settle
in more quickly to the English educational system and provide
comprehensive, accessible information for parents.
Unaccompanied children
49. From 1 January to April 2007 it is estimated
400 newly arrived Romanian Roma individuals (including children)
arrived in Slough. Families shared often overcrowded and sub standard
accommodation.
50. 88 unaccompanied Romanian Roma children
between the ages of 10-17 years were presented to Slough children's
services requesting support in the same period. A temporary dedicated
team had to be set up by Children Services. The Roma team provided
support to 52 children. 36 were refused support as they have been
assessed as being over the age of 18 or the council located family
members in the UK.
51. All children claimed they travelled
to the UK by lorry, the amount paid for this varied, usually around
75 Euros. Most said they left family in Romania or other EU countries
and came to the UK for a better life. Each child was individually
assessed and children's services sought to re-unite children with
their families as soon as possible.
52. Six young people had babies of their
own and seven were pregnant. A high proportion of children had
dental problems, including small children who are dependants.
Eight children had been implicated in criminal activity such as
theft, mugging or begging. A small number of children had been
seen cleaning car windscreens at traffic lights.
53. The rapid reaction team cost the council
an estimated £250,000. This swift action to deal with an
unprecedented and dramatic event was essential in maintaining
public trust and managing impacts of a very visible migration
pattern.
54. The management of this impact should
be considered in the financial context of the council. The town's
population is still considered by official statistics to be shrinking.
The effect of this erroneous population count on the council's
funding is severe with an estimated minimum loss of £5-6
million in funding to date. The council has managed through four
years of under-funding by driving efficiencies and using balances.
It can no longer do this making rapid reaction of this kind unlikely
in the future.
Other indirect costs of migration
55. Elected councillors have had to make
some difficult decisions on the level of services they can provide
in the forthcoming years due to the financial effects of poor
migration data on the council. It is important that these are
seen as a consequence of migration to the town and the government's
inability to track and measure population movement.
56. Since the 2002 mid year estimates councillors
in Slough have had to set council tax at the capping limit, alongside
delivering 13.2% efficiency savings, real cuts in services and
reducing balances beneath the minimum recommended level of the
Section 151 officer. When the financial benefits of migration
are a net contribution to GDP through income tax is it fair that
local residents are facing increased council tax bills and reductions
in service as a direct result of the governments inability to
keep pace with the statistics.
What impact has migration had on the labour market,
including wages, unemployment and working conditions of the UK
workforce? In what sectors and occupations are migrants employed?
How does this differ from local workers?
57. Slough undertook a study of new migrants
and employers in September 2006.
58. Our research indicates that about 15%
of organisations in Slough have employed new migrant workers and
that a quarter of organisations in Slough expect to employ new
migrant workers in the next two years. However, for those organisations
employing the most people (50+ employees)[11],
our survey indicates these proportions are much higher, with about
40% of employers having employed new migrants and over half expecting
to do so in the next two years.
59. The numbers of new migrants appears
to be having some effect on Slough's overall output. Seven in
ten (69%) organisations we interviewed employing migrant workers
agreed that new migrant workers had made a positive contribution
to their organisations.
60. Amongst those employing new migrant
labour, it was not uncommon for new migrants to account for 10-20%
of their workforce.
61. In the Employer Survey, new migrants
are identified as being most likely to work in elementary (60%),
sales and customer service (12%) and skilled trade (10%) occupations.
The majority of new migrants are working in low-skilled occupations
and employers are paying on average £5.50 per hour (median)
for this kind of work.
62. On the issue of wage levels, employers
tend either to agree that these migrants are keeping wages down
or say that they don't know what effect new migrants are having
on the local economy.
63. Organisations highlight a lack of indigenous
applicants (54%), higher productivity levels (47%) and better
work ethic (46%) as their main reasons for employing new migrants.
A quarter (24%) of organisations say they employ new migrants
because they can offer them lower rates of pay. The chief issue
identified by these organisations when employing new migrants
is the poor quality of their English language skills (34%).
64. These findings strongly suggest that
new migrants are successfully fulfilling the requirements of larger
firms by providing a flexible, cost-effective workforce at the
lower end of the skills market and that this pattern of employment
looks set to continue.
65. New migrants are being paid on average
£5.50 per hour (median wage) and working a 40 hour week (median
hours work). The average weekly earnings of a full-time working
new migrant are £258.75 (median). To put this in context,
the bottom 10% of full-time workers in the UK earn less than £244.10
gross per week.[12]
More than a third (36%) of the full-time migrant workers in this
study fall in the bottom 10% of full-time earners and 58% fall
in the bottom 25% of full-time earners. Only 6% of Slough's new
migrants earned more than the average median weekly wage for the
UK.
66. 10% of new migrant workers in Slough are
paid below the minimum wage and almost a quarter are working longer
than the working hours directive. In the survey, we observed new
migrants being paid £5 per hour when they should have been
paid £5.35 per hour. This flooding of the lower paid jobs
is having some displacement effects with existing communities.
67. At NVQ level 2 the Pakistani community
is some 40% below that of the Indian community and 20% below that
of the white community. This results in difficulties accessing
jobs even in low skilled sectors, but is exacerbated by a decline
in low skilled jobs at the same time as an increase in low skilled
EU labour.
68. The difficulties this community continues
to have with establishing itself in the formal economy means that
it operates in the more informal economy tending to be landlords,
taxi drivers, fast food catering and undertaking a range of lower
paid jobs. Our research and discussions with the local community
demonstrates a feeling that some of this community is being displaced
by the new incoming Polish community which has higher skills and
is prepared to work for lower wages. This comment was recorded
in the audit, "I've noticed Asian communities resent Eastern
European communities as they are ruining their chances in low
skilled jobs."
69. New migrants are often well-qualified
for work. About four in ten (39%) new migrants in Slough have
had a university education, usually in their home country. Four
in ten new migrants said they are in jobs where they use their
skills to some extent. Even so, those new migrants with a degree
earn more money than those without: £6.38 per hour (median
wage) compared to £5.35 per hour (median wage).
How does migration affect the public finances?
Do immigrants contribute more in taxes than they use in public
services?
70. This is a question best tackled by economists.
However, if the government is right and migration is a net contribution
to GDP through income tax this money should find its way back
to the councils that are coping with the management of increased
migration.
71. Tony Travers, Director of London Group
at the London School of Economics There's no accounting for
some people July 2006 and Migration works November 2006 said:
"Town halls are trapped with all the costs but none of the
tax benefits [of migration]. We need either vastly better data
or—the better option—to allow councils to capture
tax derived from local growth."
Community Cohesion
72. This submission has not dealt with the
issue of community cohesion. However, the council has conducted
a Cohesion Audit which has revealed cause for attention. Different
minority groups are beginning to perceive the tightening of funding,
cuts to services and displacement in the labour market as negative
aspects of migration. Communities perceive that they are in competition
for scarce resources.
73. Ted Cantle, Associate Director IDeA
and Chair Community Cohesion Review Team and author of the "Cantle
report" examining causes of riots in Bradford, Oldham and
Burnley in 2001, said of Slough's Migration Works Seminar on 2nd
November 2006:
74. "Slough Borough Council's seminar
is well timed. Migration to the UK works as evidenced in places
around the country like Slough. However, building cohesive communities
to harness the benefits long term takes resources. It is important
that councils like Slough are funded correctly for their population
size and complexity to make sure they continue community cohesion
work."
75. "Community tensions are sometimes
caused by the perception of competition between groups over resources
and councils have to be able to demonstrate that this is not the
case."
76. "The government needs to look with
some urgency at funding areas appropriately where statistics are
not keeping pace with what is happening on the ground."
8 Interdepartmental Task Force on migration
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/population/future/imps/updates/downloads/Inter-departmental-Task-Force-on-Migration-Statistics.pdf Back
9
http://www.communities.gov.uk/index.asp?id=1002882&PressNoticeID=2374 Back
10
Teesdale, Christchurch, Spelthorne, Burnley, and Isles of Scilly Back
11
About three-quarters (77%) of the organisations in Slough employ
less than 10 people each. These organisations employ 14% of Slough's
overall workforce. The majority of Slough's workers are employed
by larger organisations: over 60% of Slough's workers are employed
by organisations with 50 or more staff. Back
12
ASHE 2006 Back
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