Memorandum by the Scottish Executive
INTRODUCTION
1. The Scottish Government welcomes the
opportunity to contribute to the Select Committee's Inquiry into
the Economic Impact of Migration. This evidence paper will begin
by providing some context, describing Scotland's demographic position,
the role of in-migration within this, and the Scottish Government's
attitude towards in-migration. It will then provide responses
to some of the specific questions which the Select Committee has
set respondees.
CONTEXT
2. The latest estimate of Scotland's population
(on 30 June 2006) is 5,116,900—a rise of 22,100 on the previous
year and an increase of 52,700 since 30 June 2001. This recent
increase in Scotland's population has been driven by net in-migration
which has more than offset the natural decrease resulting from
the number of deaths exceeding the number of births. In mid-2006
18% of the Scottish population was aged under 16 while 19% was
of pensionable age (60 and over for women and 65 and over for
men) and the remaining 63% were of working age (16-59 for women,
16-64 for men).
3. In the 12 months to 30 June 2006, in-migration
exceeded out-migration by 21,200. Scotland also experienced net
migration gains in each of the three previous years with gains
of around 9,000 in the year to mid-2003, 26,000 (the highest level
recorded since current records started in 1952) to mid-2004 and
19,000 to mid-2005. In the year to 30 June 2006, around 53,300
people came to Scotland from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland
and around 44,400 people left Scotland to go in the opposite direction
resulting in a net gain from the rest of the UK of around 8,900.[43]
About 42,200 people (including some asylum seekers) came from
overseas and around 29,500 left Scotland to go overseas, giving
a record net migration gain from overseas of around 12,700.[44]
Migrants tend to be much younger than the general population with
48% of migrants from the rest of the UK and 68% of those from
overseas aged 16-34 compared with 24% of the resident population.
4. The latest population projections are
based on the estimate of Scotland's population at 30 June 2004.
These projections, based on existing trends and making no allowance
for the impact of government policies and other factors, show
the total population of Scotland rising from 5.08 million in 2004
to 5.13 million in 2019 before falling to 5.07 million by 2031.
Longer term projections for up to 40 years ahead show a continuing
decline after 2031 to below 5 million in 2036 and 4.86 million
in 2044. A revised projection, based on the higher 2006 population
estimate, will be published later this year.
5. As a result of Scotland's unique demographic
position as the only country within the UK whose population is
projected to decline at such a level, the Scottish Government
is committed to attracting and retaining individuals from outwith
Scotland to come and live, work and study in Scotland, through
its Fresh Talent initiative. While working within the UK immigration
arrangements, and targeting only those who have a legal right
to work in the UK, the Scottish Government aims to ensure that
Scotland is recognised internationally as a great place to live,
work, study, visit and do business. The Fresh Talent initiative
is widely supported across the Scottish economy, with businesses
and commentators recognising the importance of attracting workers
into the labour market.
6. This paper will now turn to some of the
specific questions.
Question 9. How has immigration affected public
services such as health care, education and social housing? How
has this varied across the country?
7. As the Committee will be aware, responsibility
for many public services, such as health care, education, housing
and social work, in Scotland is devolved to the Scottish Government.
Scotland has a long tradition of welcoming migrants into our communities,
and helping them integrate into our communities. As a result,
the influx of migrant workers over recent years, particularly
those from the A8 countries who have arrived since 2004, has,
on the whole, been largely welcomed into communities across Scotland,
and most migrants have integrated well. That is not to say that
there have not been some pressures on the delivery of some public
services in some areas of the country.
8. Looking first at housing, the general
impact of migration to Scotland is factored into the Scottish
Government's evidence based on affordable housing need through
ongoing modelling. In November 2006, the Scottish Government and
Communities Scotland published some new modelling work on affordable
housing need commissioned from Professor Glen Bramley at Heriot
Watt University. It included a component which took account of
the impact of migration on housing availability. The report used
data from 2005, and recognised that particular year saw a high
number of migrants from EU accession countries. Unsurprisingly,
those areas with estimated net shortages on affordable housing
were also the areas which were least affordable to migrants. However
the model does not specifically distinguish between the nature
and type of migration.
9. Migrant workers can apply for social
rented housing in Scotland, and this is provided by both local
authorities and Registered Social Landlords (RSLs). Migrant workers
are also eligible for the low-cost home ownership scheme, Homestake.
This scheme allows those on low incomes to access owner-occupied
housing through a shared equity arrangement. The new build social
rented accommodation and Homestake properties are provided by
RSLs, and are subsidised by the Scottish Government under the
Affordable Housing Investment Programme, which is administered
by Communities Scotland.
10. With regards to homelessness, the Scottish
Government has received anecdotal evidence from a handful of local
authorities who report an increase in approaches from A8 nationals
who may be homeless, as well as an increase in actual homelessness
applications from A8 nationals. (Our formal data collection system
was updated with effect from April this year to distinguish between
foreign EU nationals and other applications and we do not have
any objective data on this issue yet.)
11. Local authorities are also anecdotally
reporting an increase in the use of the private rented sector
in their areas by A8 nationals. Research commissioned by City
of Edinburgh Council and the previous administration (and likely
to be published by the Scottish Government in the near future)
indicates that the vast majority of foreign workers (mainly but
not solely Polish) sort out their own accommodation which is principally
in the private rented sector, when arriving in Edinburgh. Local
authorities are also concerned about the increased vulnerability
of A8 nationals staying in poor quality and overcrowded accommodation,
and at higher risk of homelessness due to poor understanding of
their legal rights. This is both an urban and rural issue.
12. Turning to the health service in Scotland,
information from NHS Boards in Scotland would indicate that, in
the main, there has been significant migration into Scotland since
2004 from the A8 countries. The island communities have traditionally
experienced outward migration of 16-24 year olds. The majority
of migrants to the islands are single males who have arrived to
take up employment in skill shortage areas.
13. Migration from A8 countries has thrown
up challenges in health board areas in relation to communicating
about healthcare provision due to language barriers and subsequent
difficulties in supporting communities with preventative intervention
to avoid acute conditions; the rising volume and costs of healthcare
material requiring translation; pressures on numbers wishing to
register with dentists and doctors; increased pressures on family
planning and maternity services; pressure caused by differences
in expectations of public services and consequently a need for
more interpreters; and pressures on emergency and minor injury
services by those not registered with GPs. (For some migrant workers,
their mobility which is linked to short term work, has meant that
they have not registered with a GP.)
14. Many migrant workers coming to Scotland
either come to Scotland with their families, or bring their families
to Scotland after the first few months. This inevitably has an
impact on the provision of education in local schools which the
children of migrant workers attend. Across all Scottish local
authorities, in 2006, from a total pupil population of 700,000,
there were 2,192 pupils with no previous knowledge of English,
1,975 who had some early knowledge, 2,948 who were developing
competence and 2,371 who were already competent in English.
15. The impact of migration on childcare
provision appears to vary across Scotland. Some areas, such as
Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Highland, have experienced significant
levels of migration from the A8 countries, particularly Poland.
Evidence of pressures is again anecdotal. Although many of the
migrants from A8 countries have not brought their families, early
years settings have seen an increase in children from A8 countries,
whose first language is not English. Authorities have attempted
to support nursery staff, children and parents by using EAL staff
and translation services where appropriate. Many of the A8 migrants
using early years are reported to be working parents who are seeking
childcare to enable them to work. There is limited anecdotal evidence
of how migrant workers are impacting on social work services in
Scotland.
16. Turning to Community Safety and Antisocial
Behaviour issues, there have been particular issues in Glasgow
which has seen a very high influx of migrant workers brought over
to Scotland by gangmasters from Slovakia, Lithuania and other
Eastern EU countries. These workers are likely to be family or
extended family units (evidence of multiple-occupancy in inadequate
accommodation) and almost certainly they will have their documentation
held by gangmasters. These workers are being forced into manual
work at minimum or below minimum wages. The vast majority are
located in areas of high deprivation for lower cost accommodation
(families group together to save on rent). Almost half of the
new migrant workers are under 24 years of age and the largest
grouping within Glasgow is the Polish community.
17. However, balanced against these impacts
are the benefits which in-migration brings to Scotland and the
Scottish economy. The media and business community in Scotland
is generally supportive of in-migration, recognising the positive
impact it is having, and its importance to the future of Scotland's
economy. For example, recently, the Director of Scottish Chambers
of Commerce, and the Director of CBI Scotland have both voiced
their support for the efforts to attract and retain Fresh Talent
in Scotland, and the positive impact which migrant workers are
having on Scottish businesses, through the valuable skills they
bring, and the contribution they are making not only to national
economic growth but also to local economies. In particular, the
Fresh Talent: Working in Scotland Scheme, which offers graduates
from Scotland's universities and colleges the opportunity to stay
and work in Scotland for up to two years following graduation
without a work permit, is proving very important in Scotland's
efforts to attract and retain talented individuals. Not only is
it encouraging students to stay on in Scotland at the end of their
studies, but also, increasingly, Scottish businesses are recognising
the advantage to their businesses of recruiting international
graduates who are on this scheme.
18. In some sectors, for example food processing
and the hospitality sector, where jobs have been harder to fill
over recent years, migrant labour has become essential to keep
some companies in business. The arrival of migrant workers in
communities across Scotland has helped to boost local economies
and, in some parts of the country, particularly rural areas, in-migration
of this kind is helping to reverse trends of population decline,
and allowing employers to fill employment gaps. For example, in
the Highlands, the population has increased in the last four years
due to net in-migration. As well as their economic contribution,
migrants are enriching local communities, by bringing experiences
of different cultures which are being welcomed in many areas.
19. There is also evidence, in some parts
of Scotland, that migrants and local migrant groups are working
with public service providers to help deliver services to other
migrants, for example, by assisting in overcoming language difficulties
and in understanding cultural differences. Some are even finding
employment within the public sector, including within the health
service, where migrants have been filling vacancies in specialist
areas, and in the social care sector, where migrant workers have
been recruited to work in many private care homes across the country.
Question 10. How does the impact of immigration
vary across different regions of the UK?
20. Immigration is an important driver of
economic growth; however it is important to note that the evidence
base is limited as to the specific contribution of immigration
to economic growth in Scotland, and it is also, generally, difficult
to ascertain the overall impact of immigration on the economy.[45]However,
research by Riley and Wale estimates that immigration to the UK
raised GDP by around 3% over the period 1998
to 2005.[46]
However, the impact on GDP per capita is generally minimal, as
the increased output is accompanied by a larger population.[47]
21. Immigration exerts both supply and demand
side effects on the economy. On the supply side, migration increases
the productive capacity of the economy by increasing the supply
of labour (migrants are more likely to work to be employed relative
to the indigenous population, and are often willing to work longer,
and more flexible, hours), and, due to their higher levels of
qualifications (relative to the indigenous population), raise
the quality of labour. As consumers of goods and services they
will also raise demand within the economy. Evidence suggests that
the recent influx of migrants has allowed the UK economy to grow
faster than it would otherwise have been able to do, due to migrants
exerting a stronger effect on supply than demand (due, in part,
to migrants sending a proportion of their income home, or spending
less on durable goods).[48]
The stronger supply side effects have dampened inflationary pressures
within the economy and allowed interest rates to remain at lower
rates than might otherwise have been the case—thus allowing
for higher levels of economic growth within the UK.[49]
22. It has been suggested that higher levels
of migration to Scotland from the A8 countries has had a negative
effect on employment or unemployment, due to the displacement
of indigenous workers. However, there is little or no evidence
to support this, as employment rates in Scotland are currently
at record high levels and are higher than the UK as a whole. Unemployment
rates are also at historically low levels and have continued to
stay low even since the free movement of people from the A8 countries.
There is some evidence, however, that while increased migration
does not significantly affect unemployment in a general sense
there is some effect on certain groups, particularly those who
are less skilled.[50]
23. In light of projected changes in the
demographic structure of the Scottish population, migration will
be an important factor in driving future economic growth. Recent
evidence suggests that, in the long-term (by 2040), based on current
population projections, demographic change in Scotland will result
in decreases in the supply of labour, and GDP of 9% and 8.2% respectively
(below the levels which would have occurred if population size
and composition had remained constant).[51]
Therefore attracting skilled and productive workers to Scotland
will be important in achieving, and maintaining, faster, more
sustainable economic growth in Scotland.
Local/Regional Research Studies in Scotland on
Impact of Immigration
24. At a national level, migration can be
thought about in broad terms as having a generally positive impact
on the economy; however numerous studies are being undertaken
in Scotland at a local/regional level, which highlight the complexities
within this. In order to fully understand the impact of immigration
on the economy, it is necessary to recognise the socio-economic
interactions around employment, education and skills, public services,
housing, social cohesion and rural issues.
25. In Scottish studies on migrant workers,
the main reason given by employers for employing migrant workers
is local labour shortages, particularly in sectors where the pay
is low and working conditions are poor. In addition, they cited
a much better work ethic, lowers staff turnover and better productivity
among the migrant workforce compared with locals. On the part
of workers, the overwhelming reason for coming to work in Scotland
is economic, due to lack of jobs and low pay in their home countries.
Many of them do not choose to come to Scotland, or particular
areas of Scotland. The general impression is that the majority
of migrant workers are employed in low paid, often unattractive
jobs that locals do not want to do in a time of relatively high
employment rates.
26. Research studies in Scotland also illustrate
how migrants' experiences at work, which can often involve low
pay and long working hours, has a significant impact on their
lives beyond the workplace, showing that labour market and social
experiences cannot be understood or addressed in isolation.
27. The impact of migration on rural communities
is of particular interest in Scotland and research indicates that
there may be particular issues related to this, eg housing for
migrants in rural areas is more likely to be "tied"
than in urban areas. Also, migrants coming to rural areas are
arriving in places that have not experienced international migration
before, which means service providers are not equipped to deal
with the diversity in language and culture. Migrants may be less
likely to find the support of an established migrant community
in rural Scotland too.[52]
Question 13. How can data be improved? What
improvements are already being put in place? To what extent have
"inadequate data" affected public policy? How confident
can we be in forecasts of future immigration and how important
is it that such forecasts are accurate?
28. Migration is the most difficult component
of population change to estimate as there is no comprehensive
system which registers migration in the UK. Estimates of migration
therefore have to be based on survey data and the best proxy data
that exist.
29. The General Register Office for Scotland
are currently considering whether to incorporate the recent ONS
changes to the ways in which migration estimates are determined,
into the mid-year population estimates for Scotland from 2007
onwards.
26 September 2007
43 Note that the movements between Scotland and the
rest of the UK and overseas will not sum to the total net migration
as they exclude unmeasured migration and rounding adjustments. Back
44
Note that the movements between Scotland and the rest of the UK
and overseas will not sum to the total net migration as they exclude
unmeasured migration and rounding adjustments. Back
45
The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the
UK Economy, Blanchflower, et al, February 2007. Back
46
Immigration and its effects, R Riley and M Wale, National Institute
Economic Review, October 2006. Back
47
Polish plumbers: mending your pipes and keeping your mortgage
down, RBS Group Economics, January 2007. Back
48
The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the
UK Economy, Blanchflower, et al, February 2007. Back
49
Polish plumbers: mending your pipes and keeping your mortgage
down, RBS Group Economics, January 2007. Back
50
The Economics of migration, TUC, June 2007. Back
51
Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change in Scotland: A Computable
General Equilibrium Analysis, Lisenkova, McGregor, et al, February
2007. Back
52
1) de Lima, P, Chaudry, M, Whelton, R and Arshad, R (forthcoming)
Migrant Workers in the Grampians, Edinburgh: Scottish Executive,
Communities Scotland
2) de Lina, P, Jentsch, B and Whelton, R (2005) Migrant Workers
in the Highlands and Islands, Inverness: Highlands and Islands
Enterprise
3) HallAitken (2007) Outer Hebrides Migration Study
4) Scottish Economic Research (2006) The Tayside migrant labour
population: scale, impact and experiences, Edinburgh: Communities
Scotland. Back
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