Is the target achievable?
165. In order to meet the target the EU and the
UK will need to increase their renewable energy generation rapidly.
The EU will need to raise its overall renewable energy generation
from around 8.5% to 20% (Q 2) whilst the UK will have to
achieve around a ten-fold increase in renewables, from around
1.5% in 2006 to 15% by 2020 (Q 2).
166. The majority of witnesses argued that the
UK target is technically achievable but very challenging. Lord
Oxburgh describes the target as "something exceedingly important,
exceedingly bold and also exceedingly challenging" (Q 106).
No witnesses, however, argued that the target is achievable within
the existing policy environment. Cambridge Econometrics has estimated
that on current policies the UK would achieve less than 5% of
final energy from renewable sources by 2020[44].
This is a view accepted by BERR (Q 3).
167. The UK Renewable Energy Strategy consultation
recognises the problems we describe in chapters 3 and 4 and the
Minister stated that "a number of radical steps" need
to be taken to address them (Q 310). However, the UK Renewable
Energy Strategy consultation states that the effectiveness of
any Government policy will "depend on how energy companies,
developers and investors in the market, and the supply chains
which serve them, respond to the signals we provide".
168. Other witnesses are less confident either
that the target is achievable or that the necessary reforms will
be put in place to make the target achievable. Allan Asher of
Energywatch stated that the UK's 15% target is "absolutely
unachievable" without a "virtual storm of innovation"
which he does not expect will happen (QQ 184-185). Similarly,
Jeremy Nicholson of the Energy Intensive Users Group described
the target as "ridiculous" (Q 451).
169. The BWEA stated that the most important
factor in enabling the UK to meet its target is political will
(Q 234). Similarly, Lord Dixon-Smith argued that to achieve
the target the UK must "get over that wretched thing, which
we all suffer from, institutional inertia" (Q 203).
170. We believe that the EU's 20% by 2020
target, and the UK's 15% national target, should be regarded as
a stepping-stone, not as a goal in itself. Without political momentum,
the UK will continue to under-perform on renewable generation
and will be in an increasingly poor position to move away from
a reliance on fossil fuels. We are content, therefore, for the
Government to agree to the proposed Directive but in our judgement
the target can only be met if at least the conclusions and recommendations
of this report are followed.
171. However, in order to provide an incentive
for technologies and investments not fully deployed by 2020, but
which will require commitment and resources before then, the Government
and the EU should consider also adopting a target for 2030 so
as to both sustain the overall momentum for renewables and provide
an incentive for still emerging technologies, such as wave and
tidal power.
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