Supplementary notes by Professor Damian
Chalmers to clarify his response to Q18
The new voting arrangements stipulated in the
Treaty of Lisbon do not fully come into effect until 1 April 2017.
Assuming entry into force of the Treaty on 1 January 2009, this
is a period of over eight years. It is questionable in the light
of the history of the EU whether such a period should be labelled
transitional as voting weights have changed so regularly because
of either enlargements, Treaty reforms or conventions (eg Luxembourg
accords). History would suggest that voting weight agreements
are more contingent than some argue, and would be affected heavily,
in particular, if Turkey were to accede before 2017 or there were
to be some political crisis such as that precipitating the Luxembourg
Accords. It is therefore perhaps better to see the transitional
arrangements as the voting weights for the foreseeable future
and the provisions set out in Article 9C(4) TEU as something to
which the Union MIGHT eventually move.
Following the Declaration, one will still need
a minimum of three states to lead an agreement to continue discussion
on my reading as one of the formal requirements. Any combination
of three: the top seven States in population terms will meet the
blocking requirement (the three least populous (Spain, Poland,
Romania) come to a combination of over 20%). The more interesting
scenario (and more usual) is when one of these States does not
want to do this but wants a blocking minority with other States.
The question is how many does it need. Germany needs to get a
further 2.15% of the population. To have a coalition involving
just three States, it can use any State > or = Hungary (2.1%
of the population and 13th place) + any other State. Alternatively,
it can use Slovakia and Finland (1.1% of the population and 18th
& 19th place). The probability is that Germany will always
just need two other States therefore to form a blocking coalition—the
population requirement, in most cases, is superfluous.
In the case of the UK, the situation is different.
It needs a further 7.05% of the population. If it forms a coalition
with one of the other top six states, it will always get this,
and will thus need a coalition of it plus two other States. It
will get this if it forms a coalition with Romania and Netherlands
together as they come to 7.9% of the vote. Otherwise it will need
at least three other States and to be part of a coalition of at
least four States. Greece is next with 2.3% and it plus Romania
(the seventh biggest state and 4.5% of the population) do not
reach 7.05%. In fact, if it wants a coalition made up of States
that do not come in the top nine largest states, it will need
to be a part of a coalition of five States. This will also usually
be the case if it wishes to be part of a coalition involving Netherlands
or Romania and no State above them in the population league.
February 2008
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