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As for the outcome of the transitional process, the elections of 2006 and huge inputs of British and other aid, the Congolese Government are achieving little or nothing. Outside Kinshasa they are achieving a considerable reign of terror over anyone who shows any signs of opposing them. Corruption is pervasive. As a result of that pervasive corruption, as the noble Lord has again noted, the situation in the national army is utterly deplorable. It is, as armies are in so many other parts of the world, as dangerous as the rebels to local people. It is deeply and widely engaged in the management of the pillage of minerals and the making of money for that purpose. It is colluding with those with whom it is fighting; they are letting each other's vehicles through checkpoints when they are full of minerals or ammunition, as Global Witness has recently publicised. There is a fearful level of impunity at every level for those who are committing human rights offences. There is almost everything to

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be done in the way of security sector reform. Churches and local NGOs, supported by external NGOs, are unanimous and clear that the present war in eastern Congo, called Kimya II, is a humanitarian disaster. It has recently been described by the protection cluster of Congolese NGOs as a massive, desperate scale of humanitarian fallout of the ongoing military operations through 2009.

I have talked to Roman Catholic and Anglican church leaders in Congo. There is a real danger that Her Majesty's Government's continuing, though qualified, support for that war, alongside that of MONUC, is rapidly leading those most active in protecting the rights of local people to lose confidence in them and other western Governments. I think that extremely few of the 3,000 reinforcements for MONUC promised in October last year are yet in theatre. There is an acute shortage of helicopters and boats in a place where road travel anywhere more than about 10 miles outside any major centre is appallingly difficult, as I know to the cost of my rattled bones. It is important that other ways are found of bringing peace, other than that war.

As far as the needs of the country are concerned, I have already mentioned security sector reform. Although work is being done by DfID and the Chinese on the infrastructure, there is a huge amount to be done. There is no climate for economic activity. As you fly into Beni, Butembo or Goma, you see an alarming number of new houses being built, but my information from Congolese sources and from Her Majesty's embassy is that next to none of those new houses is based on anything other than corrupt money, the pillage of minerals and the import of arms. That is very serious.

We have enormous responsibility. Her Majesty's Government and their European and American partners are the major donors to the DRC, Uganda and Rwanda. I believe that our Government need to give real sustained attention to the range of places that the noble Lord mentioned, among them the DRC and the Great Lakes region. It was not encouraging that for more than two months in the summer there was no Minister for Africa. We regret the loss of the noble Lord, Lord Malloch-Brown, although we welcome the coming of the noble Baroness, but it would be good if there were a Minister for Africa. If we asked the noble Baroness to reiterate the range of her responsibilities later today, she would not have much time to say anything else because the Minister for Africa is responsible for a great deal else as well.

In the NGO community, both Congolese and expatriate, including bodies such as Human Rights Watch, Global Witness and a host of others, there is a strong sense that there is a crying need for British, European and American diplomacy to get on the front foot and be more active and incisive. There is a strong sense around in that community that Western diplomacy has become limp-wristed in Congo and that there is a need for pressured and clear talk to Rwanda, Uganda and the DRC Government, awash as it is with Chinese and Indian money. We cannot make peace with the continuing war. Peace negotiations must include minerals, weapons and mines if the people are not to be abused further. There is a need for energetic action to find out who is making the money, who is taking out the

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minerals and where they are going. The British Government, like other European Governments, have been very slow around the OECD guidelines to pursue British and European companies. In the DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Europe and America there are people running the wars and the pillage. We have to bring all that to book if there is to be some possibility of peace in the land. I hope that we will see a fresh concentration of effort on this region and others by the present Government and by any Government who succeed them because 100 years is a long time and the situation has been appalling all that time.

Many of us on these Benches and elsewhere were very concerned about and, indeed, opposed the 2003 Iraq war because we felt that it would lead to a leaching away of attention and money from places such as the Great Lakes region. I believe we have seen that over the past six years, and we must redress the balance, whatever the seriousness of events in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

1.06 pm

Lord Turnberg: My Lords, I shall focus my remarks on the Middle East and on what roles the UK can play in that disturbed and disturbing region. I shall deal first with Iran where the dangers of nuclear arms in the hands of dangerous idealists are obvious. Ahmadinejad has repeatedly made his intentions for Israel clear, and they are simply a first step in his plans for the domination of the Middle East. However, it is the threat he poses to Europe, which is now well within the range of his ballistic missiles, that should cause us concern. Our Government's position on sanctions is commendable, but Iran's cynical disregard for any reasoned approaches gives little hope that it will change direction now. The regime's continuing inhumane treatment of its dissidents shows how little it yields to international pressures. Time is not on our side here, and we should avoid at all costs the proposals being leaked from a United Nations body to stop sanctions at a time when we should be encouraging our partners to increase them.

In Afghanistan, we seem to be losing heart, as many noble Lords have said, as the tragic losses of our troops mount up, but the Prime Minister's commitment and resolve have to be bolstered. The possibility that the Taliban could take over again, as they surely would if we came out now, is more than worrying but, more significantly, they are increasingly making their presence felt through their associates over the border in Pakistan, and the possibility of Pakistan, a nuclear power, drifting into the hands of associates of the Taliban is extremely dangerous. One fundamentalist regime in the region with nuclear capabilities is frightening enough, but two would be disastrous, so we have to stay there until such time as a stable, self-sufficient Afghanistan can be achieved and Pakistan can be helped to combat its own insurgents. It is often said that we cannot win in Afghanistan, and that may be true, but we should be able to hold the line until such time as strengthened local government can take over the responsibility.

On Israel and Palestine, there is a somewhat naive view that if this stand-off could be resolved, all the other problems of the Middle East would disappear. Of course, a solution here is highly desirable, not least

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for the Palestinians and Israelis, but we should not fool ourselves into believing that Iran would suddenly drop its fundamentalism and its malign anti-Western stance or that the Taliban and al-Qaeda would cease their terrorist activities. That is just too much to expect. However, peace between Israel and the Palestinians would be a godsend for both populations, and every public opinion poll there shows a majority of both sides strongly in favour of a two-state solution. Indeed a reasonably clear idea of what the final two-state solution might look like has emerged from a series of plans over the years-all variations on a theme, to my mind-but if the outline of a final picture is reasonably clear, the process of achieving it has been bedevilled by a series of events, by extremists on both sides, by variably committed leaderships and by external pressures from Iran and its proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas. The two sides are now as far apart as ever. There is considerable concern about settlements on the one hand, and Hamas rearming and splitting from Fatah on the other, among myriad other concerns.

Against this background, it is worth thinking about what we in the UK can best do to help them to achieve the common goal of their peoples. Although we have relatively little influence compared with the USA, there are opportunities for us to help. There are many positive signs of regeneration in the West Bank in which we can play a role. Unemployment is going down; the GDP is rising by about 7 per cent a year; many roadblocks and checkpoints have been removed; security is immeasurably better, so the IDF has been able to withdraw from many areas as the Palestinian police-trained with our, and it has to be said Israel's, help-have taken over; and towns such as Jenin, which were previously no-go areas, have started opening up for tourism.

Now Mr Fayyad has been able to say that he aims to have an independent state within a few years with or without Israel's agreement. Although this has created consternation in some quarters in Israel, and although it may be doubtful whether he can achieve it, the point is that he is now confident that the West Bank is increasingly developing the degree of stability, with security and the rule of law, that makes for a governable state. It can certainly put itself in a stronger position to negotiate with Israel, which really needs a stronger partner to talk to.

The UK, with the EU, can do much to assist the Palestinians in their economic development and in the build-up of their own police and security systems. In light of that, the boycotts of Israel proposed at the TUC conference recently seem ludicrous, especially when we hear that the Palestinian trade unions say that they would only harm their interests at a time when they have reached an agreement with Israeli trade unions on equal pay. How will a boycott of Israel help the Palestinians or the peace process? This is the sort of dialogue that we should promote. There are many other examples, some of which are supported by our Government and the Israeli Government, many of which are supported by voluntary organisations.

I shall give a couple of examples. For the first, I express my interest as a trustee of a charity that we set up last year in my late son's name. The Daniel Turnberg

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Travel Fellowship Scheme is supporting 20 medical researchers from the Middle East to spend a few weeks in the UK learning new techniques, making contact with leading researchers and planning continuing research collaboration for when they go home. Of these 20, five are from the West Bank, seven are from Israel and the rest are from Jordan, Egypt and Lebanon. All are enthusiastic and keen to collaborate.

Of course, this is not the only scheme. Another, called Building Bridges, has brought two Palestinian and two Israeli trainee doctors to spend three months in the UK in specialist training. They live together in a flat provided for them, and the first group have become firm friends and colleagues. I know of similar low-key schemes for undergraduate students. One, at City University London, is for about a dozen students from Israel and Palestine, and there are others for lawyers and journalists, each bringing together people from both sides.

There is of course plenty of room into which criticism of both sides can grow, and each needs to look critically at itself, but for us in the UK so much more can be achieved by helping to build bridges than by destructive boycotts and criticism. The UK Government's balanced approach and support for both sides is appreciated, but I fear that the sometimes unbalanced recrimination that often emanates from the UN and is heaped on Israel simply demeans the UN, reduces its influence in Israel and does little in the search for peace.

Finally, the situation in Gaza is dire. Hamas is firmly in control and vowing death and destruction to Israel. The poor population there is stuck between a rock and a hard place, as neither side seems prepared to blink, at least on the surface. Palestinians in Gaza will never forget or forgive their loss of civilian lives, and the Israelis cannot forget or forgive the thousands of rockets that fell on them in a continual storm for so many years. The question is whether we should focus all our energies on current senses of injustice or on putting some of that energy into looking for ways to move forward to solutions.

Surprisingly, there are interactions and links between the two. Most are unheralded, but we should try to build on them. When I visited two large children's hospitals in Israel recently, I was struck by the number of Palestinian children from Gaza being treated there. In the Safra Children's Hospital at Tel Hashomer, there are always 30 or 40 children and their families from Gaza receiving specialist care, and about half of all cardiac surgery at Safra is on Gazan children. A similar story is told at the Schneider Children's Hospital. Indeed, a visit to any Israeli hospital reveals remarkable numbers of Palestinian patients being treated by Jewish and Arab doctors and nurses. This interaction at the grass roots is reflected in joint research activities between Israeli and Palestinian universities in Gaza, almost all of which are below the radar because of Hamas pressure to clamp down on collaboration.

It is often said that Israel should talk to Hamas-"talk to your enemies" is the phrase-but there is no evidence whatever that Hamas will talk to Israel. It is even at loggerheads with Fatah, largely because Fatah does speak to Israel. Clearly it will have to speak at some

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point, but it takes two to tango. Meanwhile, I can only assume that the informal backdoor discussions, which I know go on, have shown that the two sides are so far apart that direct talks are currently not feasible.

One remarkable story gives me some hope for the future: the terrible story of the paediatrician in Gaza who tragically lost three of his children when an Israeli bomb dropped on his house during the conflict in January. His remaining child and a niece were badly injured, but they were all shipped out in a helicopter that was sent immediately by the Safra hospital in Israel that I mentioned earlier. They were treated in intensive care, where they recovered, and were sent home. That paediatrician returned later and placed a memorial plaque to his three children in the hallway of the Israeli hospital, and he is dedicating some equipment to them there-a remarkable and touching thing to do. Of course, this terrible loss of civilian life is an awful consequence of any war, and one that makes it so abhorrent. Despite the horror, however, we should gain some faith that reconciliation is possible among ordinary people, and it should give us hope that endless cycles of violence and revenge can be broken. They are not always inevitable.

1.18 pm

Baroness Williams of Crosby: My Lords, I hope to return later to the very reasonable and thoughtful speech by the noble Lord, Lord Turnberg. First, I have a couple of comments to make about earlier speeches in this debate. I will then make very brief comments on the Middle East's nuclear weapons and on Afghanistan.

One thing concerned me when I heard the moving speeches of the right reverend Prelates the Bishop of Bath and Wells and the Bishop of Winchester. Both outlined the scale of disastrous civil war and violence that are occurring even today in much of Africa and sometimes in south-east Asia. One of the most terrible statistics that I have encountered recently came from the very same Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf in Liberia to whom the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Winchester referred. No less than a quarter of the women and girls known to have been raped in that country were children under the age of five. That tells one something about how desperate the situation is.

When I listened to both right reverend Prelates, I was very concerned about what the UK might do. That brings me back to the very eloquent speech by the noble Baroness, Lady Kinnock, and to my great concern about it. She knows very well the issues of overseas aid and poverty in the world. She spoke about them with great eloquence and great sincerity, but I was very troubled by her reiteration of the Government's pledge of 0.7 per cent of GDP to overseas aid, peacekeeping and other matters of that kind.

Let us be quite frank about this: 0.7 per cent has been an ambition of this Government since 1997. We have now reached a figure of 0.34 per cent, which, admittedly, is considerably better than that of many countries, including even the United States. But it is only half of 0.7 per cent. However, in that period we lived through times of great prosperity in this country and of substantial budget surpluses. Yet we have never got anywhere near achieving 0.7 per cent. That is why I ask the Government to take very seriously the pledges

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they are making and would even suggest that they become pledges in law because, frankly, I very much doubt whether, given the scale of our financial problems, that figure will be reached in any foreseeable period.

The one way in which it might be reached-I would commend this to the Government and would ask them to look at it much more closely than they have so far-is the proposal for a Tobin tax on financial transactions, which is now broadly supported by France and Germany. It is the one area where there might be adequate remuneration and revenues to achieve 0.7 per cent. For a reason which is beyond me, because of the nature of the support that this proposal has had, I do not understand why our Government do not look much more closely at it. It is estimated in a recent research study by Austria that it would bring in something of the order of £700 billion if it extended generally and £90 billion if it was limited only to the United Kingdom.

I very much agree with the spokesman for the Opposition, the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, on something that he has often reiterated to the House; namely, the rise of Asia and the significant increase in the proportion of world wealth and investment that now originates there. However, I thought that he slightly exaggerated the speed at which all this is happening. It is still true that the European Union is the single biggest trading block in the world, the largest source of overseas investment in the world and has the capacity to have a major impact in its negotiations in the WTO and elsewhere. I share the noble Lord's analysis that Asia is rising and that the challenge to that is very significant. What is the possible logic of accepting divisions in Europe when Europe should be bargaining with the rest of the world for outcomes that will be beneficial to both? It is simply unjustifiable to pursue essentially historic arguments about sovereignty in the European Union when this is one of the few instruments we have to deal with some of the terrible violence and poverty in the world.

I agree with him very much that the Commonwealth had underused potential. That is true. The Commonwealth could be much more effective, given strong support from us and others. To give one example: I was recently in Islamabad and had the opportunity of talking to some of the leading foreign affairs figures in Pakistan. One could not help but grieve about why the Commonwealth has not been able to build any kind of effective bridge of discussion between Pakistan and India. These two great countries are still far too absorbed in their enmity with one another and one of whose survival-I repeat, survival-is, as many of us know, at stake.

I shall be brief on Afghanistan, because we have had some very distinguished speeches, including that of the noble and learned Lord, Lord Mayhew of Twysden. We have to live with the difficulties that have arisen from what I believe has long been a profoundly mistaken policy, which dates back to the Administration of President George Bush; that is, the belief that in some peculiar way Afghanistan can be a centrally governed and administered state. It never has been. All central Governments in Afghanistan have sooner or later to come to terms with the regional and sometimes almost feudal lords of the various provinces.

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There have been some very effective contributions to this in recent years. One of the most profound and disturbing was the objection of Peter Galbraith, who was the American envoy in Afghanistan and a former ambassador to Croatia. He was inclined to speak with rather too much directness for acceptable diplomacy about the problems of having a central Government and president whose authority we were obliged to sustain, and who have been profoundly involved in corruption and possibly even in the drug trade.

How can we create a domestic situation which provides more support from the Afghan people for the attempt to deal with the Taliban? The answer has to lie in raising regional negotiations between ourselves and the domestic provincial leaders of Afghanistan in order to sustain their support for what we are trying to do. In that context, one of the most significant things-I very much agree here with what has been said during this debate-is to try to build rural strength and rural development in that country. I want to say one more important thing about Afghanistan. Given the situation in which the legitimacy of the Government is somewhat doubted, we need to try to restore some of the trust by sustaining and extending civic rights.

I very much agree with the noble Lord, Lord Howell of Guildford, on the danger of a sudden pull-out. We would all like to see a big reduction in British troops and a timetable for their departure. I agree with those Members of this House who have pointed out that the repercussions on Pakistan of a sudden pull-out are so grave that we should not even seriously consider that possibility.

Pakistan has now got a weak civil Government, but they have at least established an agreed authority over the military. It is a country torn apart by the arguments in Pakistan about whether the Army should be devoted to trying to root out the Taliban in Waziristan and elsewhere. I agree strongly that we have to support economic development in Pakistan, but I also feel very strongly that we have to try to develop Pakistan's discussion with her neighbours in such a way as to leave her less vulnerable than she is today. By her neighbours, I again mean, at least in part, India, where a relationship between the two, even if it is only a hotline, is of the most crucial importance.

I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Turnberg, on his moderate and sensible approach to the Middle East, but I shall add one doubt. In the past few days, we have had the response of Fatah and of Mr Erekat, its chief negotiator, to the very close to outright rejection of an attempt to stop the settlements by the present Government of Israel. It is absolutely essential to have some movement by the Government of Israel on settlements, and on reducing the demand that they make on land and aquifers. With every day that passes, I increasingly doubt the possibility of a two-nation solution. A nation cannot be built on as little as is now being left of the West Bank and Gaza in terms of economic strength. We now have to face up to the fact that time is running out very fast indeed.

It is important to say that the almost outright rejection by Mr Netanyahu's Government of the original request from President Obama for a complete stop in settlements was not resolved by Secretary of State Mrs Hillary Clinton's rather extraordinary comment

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that Mr Netanyahu made a generous proposal. It was nothing of the kind. It was no proposal at all. Given the situation where the United States, for reasons I do not fully understand, seems to be unable to take any initiative with regard to the settlements, the EU has a great responsibility as the major financier of the Palestinian Authority, the major supporter of police reform in Gaza and, particularly, the West Bank, to intervene and to go directly into the issues of the Middle East and say, "As the substantial financier of the Palestinian Authority, we believe we should be heard on the issue of how we can get some kind of constructive talks going on this matter. We cannot accept the scale of the rejection of the settlement issue by the present Government of Israel".

My final point relates to nuclear weapons. The road towards the abolition of nuclear weapons, to which we are all-including the United States, the United Kingdom and others-now broadly committed, lies through three pathways. The first is a ratification of the successor to START, which runs out at the end of this month. The Americans and Russians have extended their acceptance of the existing verification of the treaty, but discussions on the proposal for substantial reductions will now have to take place at the beginning of the coming year. United Kingdom support for that is badly needed and is widely offered but, frankly, much turns on whether the United States Congress will feel able to ratify such a treaty.

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