CHAPTER 4: CAPACITY
131. The Strategic Case described the
first objective of HS2 as "to provide sufficient capacity
to meet long term demand, and to improve resilience and reliability
across the network."[156]
In his foreword to the Strategic Case, the Secretary of
State for Transport wrote that "the new north-south railway
is a long term solution to a long term problem. Without it the
West Coast, East Coast and Midland Main Lines are likely to be
overwhelmed."[157]
132. In this Chapter we consider the explanation
of the capacity problem in the Strategic Case, examine
the evidence we have received and determine whether the Government
has convincingly identified the capacity problems that HS2 hopes
to address.
Explanation of the capacity problem
in the Strategic Case
133. The Strategic Case explained that
"rail capacity is dependent on two things: how many people
each train can carry, and how many trains there are." It
described the growth in both passenger numbers and the number
of trains on the network.[158]
INCREASING PASSENGER DEMAND FOR ALL RAIL SERVICES
134. The previous chapter examined demand for
long-distance rail travel. Demand for all rail services is relevant
for capacity. The following graph illustrates the growth of annual
miles travelled on the railway between 1950 and 2010: Figure
6: Annual passenger miles on the railway, 1950-2010
Source: Strategic Case, Figure 2.1 (Office of
Rail Regulation data)
135. In terms of the number of rail passenger
journeys, there has been an increase from 976 million in 2002/03
to 1,502 million in 2012/13: Figure
7: Passenger journey growth 2002/03 to 2012/13
Source: Strategic Case, Figure 2.2 (Office of
Rail Regulation data)
GROWTH IN FREIGHT TRAFFIC
136. The Strategic Case said that freight
traffic "plays an important and growing role on the rail
network."[159]
It stated that eight to nine per cent of freight moved in Great
Britain each year was by rail, a total of 21 billion tonne kilometres[160]
in 2011. Freight carried by rail has increased by an average of
2.5 per cent annually over the last 20 years. Network Rail have
forecast annual growth in tonne kilometres of 2.2 per cent to
2033.[161]
INCREASING NUMBERS OF TRAINS ON THE RAILWAY
137. The Strategic Case stated that the
railway was "effectively the same size as 15 years ago but
there are now 4000 more train services a day; a 20 per cent increase."
It explained that just as airports have a limited number of landing
slots for aircraft, rail lines have a limited number of train
paths. [162]
138. The West Coast Main Line is the busiest
mixed-traffic rail corridor in Europe, carrying a mix of passenger
and freight traffic. The line carries 43 per cent of all freight
on the national rail network. The Strategic Case said that:
"The West Coast Main Line is under stress
because there is more demand for train services than there are
train paths available. This not only limits overall capacity,
but means there are trade-offs about deciding which services can
run."
139. It continued that, once trains (whether
passenger or freight) are lengthened to the limits that the infrastructure
will allow, "further capacity can only be provided by running
extra trains. This is why the question of train paths is crucial."
Although there is additional capacity in some parts of the north,
"the scope for further services to be introduced on the southern
part of the West Coast Main Line is now very limited."[163]
CROWDING ON TRAINS
140. The Strategic Case said that despite
train lengthening and additional services increasing capacity
in recent years, 40 per cent of trains at Euston in the morning
and evening peak periods already have passengers standing.[164]
It said that, on commuter services leaving Euston during the final
hour of the evening peak, on average there were 120 passengers
for every 100 seats:
"With additional train services increasingly
difficult to accommodate, additional demand is being met by train
lengthening. The busiest peak services already have the longest
trains the network can readily accommodate … even at only
half the recent rate of growth capacity there will be a severe
problem by the mid-2020s. Crowding levels will be untenable."[165]
HOW WILL HS2 PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CAPACITY?
141. According to the Strategic Case:
"By building a new north-south high speed
railway, HS2 provides a step change in capacity that can meet
demand for the long term. While HS2 itself provides additional
intercity capacity, the released capacity on the classic network
allows for new commuter and freight services."
It explained that HS2 will be capable of providing
14 trains per hour in each direction for intercity travel, rising
to 18 trains when the full network is completed. [166]
THE LATEST VIEW FROM THE DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT
AND THE INDUSTRY
142. Mr Prout of the Department for Transport
told us that:
"There are basically two major issues in
terms of capacity that HS2 is dealing with. One is long-distance
capacity, and that is a question of not just seats on trains but
of train paths … The other problem is commuter capacity,
and there the overcrowding on commuter trains is much worse than
it is on long-distance trains … [HS2] deals with these two
issues, long distance and commuter, and in both respects creates
additional capacity."[167]
143. Rupert Walker, Head of High Speed Rail Development,
Network Rail said that there is "a capacity case for an intervention
at the southern end of the country to provide the huge amount
of capacity that is needed to accommodate the growth forecasts
that we see".[168]
Mr Scott from Virgin Trains said that "there is certainly
lack of capacity on the West Coast Main Line … it is manifested
in overcrowding on some services."[169]
The Rail Freight Group said that it was "clear that to accommodate
this growth [in rail freight] … will require new network
capacity provided by HS2."[170]
HAS THE CAPACITY PROBLEM BEEN CONVINCINGLY ESTABLISHED?
144. Professor Glaister told us that "the
case that there is serious capacity problem today on that railway
has not been made. It may be true but, to my knowledge, it has
not been thoroughly investigated."[171]
145. In the remainder of this Chapter we consider
the three main capacity problem identified by the Strategic
Case: overcrowding on long-distance services, overcrowding
on commuter services and space for passenger and freight train
paths. We will conclude whether the Government has made a convincing
argument in each case.
Overcrowding on long-distance
services
GROWTH IN DEMAND FOR LONG-DISTANCE RAIL SERVICES
ON THE WEST COAST MAIN LINE
146. This section examines the argument that
long-distance trains are overcrowded on the West Coast Main Line.
This is the line that the Strategic Case states is most
under stress and the line we have received most evidence on. Box
4 below considers overcrowding on the East Coast and Midland Main
Lines.
147. The West Coast Main Line provides intercity
services between London, the West Midlands, the North West and
Scotland. It connects the cities of London, Birmingham, Manchester,
Liverpool, Glasgow and Edinburgh. Virgin Trains have held the
InterCity West Coast franchise since 1997. The growth in journeys
between these areas and London can be seen in Table 7 in the previous
Chapter.
STATISTICS ON OVERCROWDING ON LONG-DISTANCE SERVICES
ON THE WEST COAST MAIN LINE
148. We wrote to the Secretary of State in October
2014 to ask for the following information on overcrowding on the
West Coast Main Line:
"The average (a) total number of passengers
and (b) the total number of seats available in (i) standard class
and (ii) first class for all the trains leaving and arriving at
Euston across the week, broken down by operator, destination and
whether the train is peak or off-peak."[172]
149. The Secretary of State's reply provided
annual aggregate statistics for long-distance trains and suburban
trains arriving at and departing from Euston on a typical autumn
weekday from 2007 to 2013. The statistics for 2013 are shown in
the tables below: Table 8: Overcrowding
on long-distance services arriving at London Euston on a typical
weekday[173], 2013
| Total capacity[174]
| Total critical load[175]
| Load to capacity (%)[176]
|
| 3 hour AM peak (0700-0959)
| 15,224 | 8,667
| 57 |
| 1 hour AM peak (0800-0859)
| 5,244 | 3,199
| 61 |
| Off-peak arrivals
| 58,846 | 23,420
| 40 |
| All day arrivals
| 74,070 | 32,067
| 43 |
Source: Letter from the Secretary of State to
the Chairman, 19 November 2014 Table
9: Overcrowding on long-distance services departing from London
Euston on a typical weekday, 2013
| Total capacity
| Total critical load
| Load to capacity (%)
|
| 3 hour PM peak (1600-1859)
| 16,508 | 8,256
| 50 |
| 1 hour AM peak (1700-1759)
| 5,886 | 2,920
| 51 |
| Off-peak departures
| 58,712 | 24,431
| 42 |
| All day departures
| 75,220 | 32,687
| 43 |
Source: Letter to from the Secretary of State
to the Chairman, 19 November 2014
150. His reply explained that:
"We are not able to disaggregate this data
further by passenger class, operator or service destinations because
we have a franchise obligation with the train operating companies
not to release the information as it is commercially sensitive."[177]
151. The tables above show that long-distance
services arriving at and departing from Euston are only 43 per
cent full on average over a whole day and between 50 and 60 per
cent full at peak times. Although the statistics show that the
load to capacity ratio in the one hour peaks are 61 per cent in
the morning and 51 per cent in the afternoon, the Secretary of
State told us that, "in the peak hour, we are already at
full capacity."[178]
152. The Secretary of State said that it was
important the statistics were "placed in right context."
He said the Department for Transport's contract with Virgin Trains
in 2012 added four 11-carriage Pendolino trains and lengthened
31 existing trains from 9 to 11 carriages[179].
This increased the total number of seats over a day from 61,641
in 2012 to 74,070 in 2013. Without this increase, the load to
capacity ratio in 2013 would have been 70 per cent for the morning
three hour peak and 59 per cent for the evening three hour peak.
[180]
153. Although the Government and Office of Rail
Regulation release a lot of rail statistics, the information above
has not previously been published. Mr Weston said the HS2
Action Alliance had also had difficulty obtaining information
on passenger numbers:
"The Government have persistently said that
the longdistance trains out of Euston are full, and there
is a capacity problem. That simply is not true … we had tremendous
difficulty getting the facts out of the Government. They would
not release the passenger counts information … eventually
the Government had to release the information to us, the court
told them to, and it confirmed that trains leaving Euston in the
evening peak are just over half full. Now, if you are trying to
make a case for HS2, that is a very inconvenient fact."[181]
154. Professor Glaister told us that he
had seen the statistics above and said it suggests that "the
line of route in from Birmingham is one of the least congested
on the commuter network."[182]
Mr Plummer from Network Rail accepted that "it is not the
case that, at all times of day and for the full length of that
journey, the trains are full."[183]
OVERCROWDING ON PARTICULAR SERVICES
155. It is clear from the statistics that overcrowding
is not a problem on today's West Coast Main Line long-distance
services. The Government and industry however have argued that
there are overcrowding problems on particular services and that
increasing demand means there is a long-term problem. The two
arguments are considered in this section.
156. Discussing the statistics in Tables 8 and
9 for the three hour peaks, Mr Prout said "we have a loading
of between 50% and 60%. Within that some trains are much more
crowded than others. On Fridays and at weekends you can get very
crowded trains indeed."[184]
Mr Scott told us that "services to and from Manchester can
be extremely busy … We run services [from London] to Manchester
every 20 minutes but that is still not enough in some cases."
He said "there are significant periods where demand is above
capacity. This can be during peak periods, but it can also be
during off-peak periods."[185]
157. Mr Prout explained that the Department for
Transport does not measure crowding on Friday evenings and weekends.
He said that mid-week peaks are measured in order to give the
fairest representation of crowding.[186]
Friday evenings
158. Mr Scott told us that "the first off-peak
service after a peak period tends to very busy [on] Friday-night
services".[187]
The ticket booking system on the Virgin Trains website supports
this and displays the following warning when attempting to book
a ticket for Friday evening travel: Figure
8: Warning about Friday evening travel on the Virgin Trains ticket
booking website
Source:
www.buytickets.virgintrains.co.uk[accessed February 2015]
159. The first off-peak service is considerably
cheaper than travelling on a train during the three hour evening
peak. Table 9 (above) shows that the average load to capacity
ratio for the peak services is 50 per cent. Table 10 (below) shows
the ticket pricing structure on a Friday evening. Table
10: Prices of tickets in standard class from London Euston to
Manchester Piccadilly for Virgin Trains on a Friday evening, 1
week in advance and 2 weeks in advance
| Departure time(s)
| Ticket type (all standard class)
| 1 week in advance
| 2 weeks in advance
|
| 1540, 1500, 1520, 1540, 1600, 1620, 1640, 1700, 1720, 1740, 1800, 1820, 1840
| Advance Single | £105.00
| £75.00 |
| Anytime Single
| £164.50 | £164.50
|
| 1857, 1900, 1920 | Advance Single
| Not available | Not available
|
| Off-Peak Return
| £80.60 | £80.60
|
| 1940, 2000 | Advance Single
| £75.00 | Not available
|
| Off-Peak Return
| £80.60 | £80.60
|
| 2007 | Advance Single
| £39.00 | £39.00
|
| Off-Peak Return
| £80.60 | £80.60
|
| 2040 | Advance Single
| £35.00 | £35.00
|
| Off-Peak Return
| £80.60 | £80.60
|
Source:
www.buytickets.virgintrains.co.uk[prices accessed on
19 February 2015]
Weekend travel
160. Mr Scott also cited "Sunday-afternoon
services" and "services when there is a significant
sporting event on" as examples of other periods where demand
is above capacity: "people who want to go to a football match
want to be there at a certain time."[188]
161. No statistics are available for crowding
at weekends; the price of advance tickets can give some indication
of high demand for particular weekend services as the prices of
advance tickets[189]
rise in response to the number of advance tickets purchased for
that service. Table 11 (below) shows the advance ticket prices
for the same services from London to Manchester two Saturdays
apart.
162. Despite Saturday 24 January being only a
day after these fares were quoted, the advance fares for Saturday
31 January are much higher. Advance tickets had sold out on the
1100 service. Virgin Trains tweeted that they thought the demand
for advance tickets on 31 January was "very possibly"
due to Manchester United having a home Premier League fixture
against Leicester City at 3pm.[190] Table
11: Comparison of advance standard class ticket fares on Virgin
Trains services from London Euston to Manchester Piccadilly on
24 January and 31 January 2015
| Departure time
| Saturday 24 January 2015 (No Manchester United game at Old Trafford[191])
| Saturday 31 January 2015 (Manchester United game at Old Trafford, 3pm kick off)
|
| 1100
| £35.00 | No advance tickets available*
|
| 1120
| £35.00 | £75.00*
|
| 1140
| £25.00 | £75.00*
|
| 1200
| £25.00 | £75.00*
|
*First class tickets costing £70 were available
for these services.
Source:
www.buytickets.virgintrains.co.uk[prices accessed on
23 January 2015]
163. Overcrowding on long-distance services
on the West Coast Main Line today appears largely to be a problem
on Friday evenings and weekend services. Box
4: The effect of HS2 on the East Coast and Midland Main Lines
| In this report we largely consider the capacity problem on the West Coast Main Line. This is the line that the Strategic Case stated was the most under stress. It is also the line we received most information about regarding capacity. Detailed information on other routes where HS2 will release capacity, including the East Coast Main Line and Midland Main Line, was not provided in the Strategic Case.
The Strategic Case stated that HS2 Phase Two will provide benefits to the East Coast Main Line and Midland Main Line:
"In Phase Two it will relieve the Midland Main Line and the East Coast Main Line, as traffic transfers from these lines onto HS2. This released capacity will also improve commuter and regional services, reliability and resilience."[192]
The Secretary of State said in his foreword to the Strategic Case that without HS2, the East Coast and Midland Main Lines, as well as the West Coast Main Line, are likely to be overwhelmed.[193] The tables below show the figures for overcrowding on trains arriving into London on the East Coast Main Line and Midland Main Line.
|
Overcrowding on East Coast Main Line arriving in to London King's Cross and Moorgate, typical weekday[194] in autumn 2013
Total capacity
Total critical load[195]
Load to capacity (%)
Long-distance
3 hour AM peak (0700-0959)
7,429
5,033
67.7
1 hour AM peak (0800-0859)
2,643
2,081
78.7
Suburban
3 hour AM peak (0700-0959)
43,563
32,878
75.5
1 hour AM peak (0800-0859)
19,227
16,850
87.6
Overcrowding on Midland Main Line arriving at St Pancras and King's Cross Thameslink, typical weekday in autumn 2013
Total capacity
Total critical load
Load to capacity (%)
Long-distance
3 hour AM peak (0700-0959)
5,470
4,960
90.7
1 hour AM peak (0800-0859)
2,380
2,336
98.1
Suburban
3 hour AM peak (0700-0959)
27,729
23,200
83.7
1 hour AM peak (0800-0859)
11,748
11,416
97.2
Source: Response to Freedom of Information request from the Department of Transport, December 2014. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/west-coast-midland-and-east-coast-main-lines-demand-and-capacity [accessed February 2015]
Long-distance services on the East Coast Main Line are provided by East Coast; the Midland Main Line by East Midlands Trains. These trains are much busier when they arrive in London compared to Virgin Trains services on the West Coast Main Line (crowding on trains being measured when the train arrives into London). The stopping patterns of long-distance trains on the East Coast and Midland Main Lines however may mean they pick up more commuter traffic into London than Virgin Trains services on the West Coast Main Line. In the Economic Case, the modelled demand for 2010 for travel between Leeds and London was substantially lower than the modelled demand for travel between Birmingham and London and Manchester and London. It is difficult to distinguish local traffic from long-distance traffic in passenger usage statistics for long-distance trains (see section below: Reliability of statistics on long distance passengers).
We consider proposed upgrades to the East Coast Main Line and Midland Main Line in Chapter 5 on alternative proposals for providing capacity. We also received evidence on the capacity issues affecting the East Coast Main Line—this is considered in Chapter 6.
|
LONG-TERM PROBLEM DUE TO INCREASING DEMAND
164. Lord Deighton told us that "given the
lead time to put in new capacity, unless we do something about
it now in a fundamental way, we are going to have an awful jam
between here and Birmingham."[196]
Lord Adonis said that "we will need a stepchange
in transport capacity, particularly to move businesspeople and
commuters between and into the major conurbations of London, the
West Midlands and the north-west."[197]
165. In his letter to the Chairman, the Secretary
of State said that "looking to future demand, it is clear
that we will have to provide more capacity if we want to continue
to keep pace with even modest future demand." He referred
to charts published in the Strategic Case that projected
demand on the West Coast Main Line to 2026 under three alternative
demand growth scenarios.[198]
In written evidence to us, the Department for Transport said these
charts showed that "without HS2 by 2026 there would be …
more than 100 passengers for every 100 seats on intercity West
Coast Mainline services."[199]
Figure 9 shows projected demand for long-distance Virgin Train
services departing from Manchester Piccadilly: Figure
9: Projected demand for services on Virgin Trains services departing
from Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston in 2026 under alternative
annual growth scenarios of 5 per cent, 2.5 per cent and 1.5 per
cent
Source: Strategic Case, Figure 7 (Steer Davis
Gleave)
166. The Strategic Case explained that
the charts "reflect today's capacity. Committed and future
investments will provide some additional capacity not represented
on these graphs. They are intended to illustrate what today's
railway may look like with tomorrow's demand."[200]
167. Virgin Trains services that travel from
Manchester Piccadilly to London Euston also stop at Stockport,
Wilmslow, Macclesfield and Stoke. The Secretary of State confirmed
to the Chairman in a letter that "the chart for Intercity
Virgin Trains will include passengers travelling from Manchester
Piccadilly to Stockport on a Virgin train."[201]
It seems likely that the spike in demand shown by Figure 9 will
be commuter traffic.
RELIABILITY OF STATISTICS ON LONG-DISTANCE PASSENGERS
168. As the Secretary of State's reply confirms,
data on crowding on long-distance trains does not distinguish
between the number of intercity passengers and the number of passengers
using long-distance services to travel short distances. Chris
Stokes, former executive director at the Strategic Rail Authority,
said that on the two Virgin Trains services from London Euston
that arrive at Manchester Piccadilly before 9am, "the great
majority of passengers on these services are commuters from Stoke-on-Trent,
Macclesfield and Crewe."[202]
169. Data on crowding is captured by passenger
counts when a service is at 'total critical load'. The total critical
load is defined as the highest number of passengers on an individual
service on arrival at or on departure from a city.[203]
For the graph showing Intercity Virgin Trains services departing
Manchester Piccadilly in Figure 9, this point is when the service
departs Manchester Piccadilly so the count will include local
traffic to Stockport.
170. The Office of Rail Regulation statistics
on long-distance journeys may also capture local traffic. These
statistics are calculated on the basis of ticket sales.[204]
The Chairman wrote to the Secretary of State to ask if "a
journey from Macclesfield to Manchester Piccadilly[205]
on Virgin Trains is captured in the statistics for long-distance
rail travel."[206]
171. The Secretary of State did not answer the
question in his reply. The Office of Rail Regulation's Passenger
Rail Usage quality report explained how rail usage is measured:
"The measures of rail usage are assigned
to sectors based on the service code of a train. For example all
passenger journeys and kilometres on a long distance service from
London to Scotland are assigned to the long distance sector, regardless
of whether passengers embark or disembark from the train at an
intermediate station."[207]
172. Virgin Trains are classified as an operator
in the long-distance sector so it appears that all journeys on
their services are captured in the official statistics for long-distance
rail travel, regardless of length.
173. The statistics on passenger usage of
long-distance rail services are partial and inconsistent. They
do not distinguish between local and long-distance traffic. Any
future overcrowding problem on long-distance services could be
caused by commuter traffic. The Government has not presented a
convincing case that there is a long-term overcrowding problem.
Overcrowding on commuter services
174. As well as the overcrowding statistics for
long-distance trains, the Secretary of State provided statistics
for overcrowding on commuter trains arriving at and departing
from Euston: Table 12: Overcrowding
on commuter services arriving at London Euston on a typical weekday,
2013
| Total capacity[208]
| Total critical load[209]
| Load to capacity (%)[210]
|
| 3 hour AM peak (0700-0959)
| 23,092 | 20,243
| 88 |
| 1 hour AM peak (0800-0859)
| 11,083 | 10,073
| 91 |
| Off-peak arrivals
| 67,130 | 21,548
| 32 |
| All day arrivals
| 90,222 | 41,791
| 46 |
Source: Letter from the Secretary of State to
the Chairman, 19 November 2014 Table
13: Overcrowding on commuter services departing from London Euston
on a typical weekday, 2013
| Total capacity[211]
| Total critical load[212]
| Load to capacity (%)[213]
|
| 3 hour PM peak (1600-1859)
| 23,733 | 19,030
| 80 |
| 1 hour PM peak (1700-1759)
| 8,763 | 7,124
| 81 |
| Off-peak departures
| 64,339 | 23,924
| 37 |
| All day departures
| 88,072 | 42,954
| 49 |
Source: Letter from the Secretary of State to
the Chairman, 19 November 2014
175. The statistics show that overcrowding is
much more of a problem on commuter services into London than long-distance
services on the West Coast Main Line. This is further illustrated
by the comparison between the crowding projections for 2026 included
in the Strategic Case for commuter and long-distance services
departing London Euston: Figure 10:
Projected demand for commuter and intercity services departing
from London Euston in 2026 under three alternative growth scenarios
Source: Strategic Case, Figure 7 (Steer Davis
Gleave)
176. Richard Brooks of London Midland told us
that 12 months ago they "had three of the top 10 overcrowded
trains on the network. We have already done something about two
of those and the third one will be resolved this December …
growth is a good thing and it is not stopping, so I think capacity
will be an ongoing challenge in the years to come."[214]
Mr Plummer from Network Rail said that on the West Coast Main
Line:
"The outersuburban commuter services…are
very, very crowded in the peak and will become progressively more
so over the next few years as we expect the growth that we have
seen to continue. We see the congestion of trains at the moment
as particularly severe on those longerdistance commuting
services. It is severe also on shorter commuting, but in a shorter
period standing is somewhat less of an issue, although it is still
an issue."[215]
REGIONAL TRAINS
177. Table 14 (below) shows current passenger
to seat ratios for all trains arriving into cities that are planned
to have HS2 stations.[216]
Overcrowding also appears to be a problem at peak times (the figures
for peak departures and all day departures show a similar pattern): Table
14: Average passenger to seat ratios in 2013 on all trains arriving
into selected cities
| City
| Total seats[217]
| Average number of passengers[218]
| Average passenger to seat ratio (%)[219]
|
| AM peak arrivals (0700-0959)[220]
|
| Birmingham
| 52,949 | 38,756
| 73.2 |
| Leeds |
28,065 | 24,190
| 86.2 |
| Manchester
| 38,943 | 29,912
| 76.8 |
| Sheffield
| 11,533 | 7,182
| 62.2 |
| All day arrivals
|
| Birmingham
| 277,587 | 115,610
| 41.6 |
| Leeds |
137,325 | 67,464
| 49.1 |
| Manchester
| 196,262 | 89,419
| 45.6 |
| Sheffield
| 66,610 | 31,027
| 46.6 |
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/rai02-capacity-and-overcrowding,
Table RAI0201 [accessed March 2015]
178. Table 15 shows that overcrowding is not
a problem on fast long-distance services to/from these cities: Table
15: Overcrowding on peak arrival services in 2013 and peak departure
services in selected cities
| City
| Number of services
| Percentage of services with passengers in excess of capacity[221]
| Number of fast long-distance services[222]
| Percentage of passengers standing on long-distance fast services[223]
|
| AM peak arrivals (0700-0959)
|
| Birmingham | 182
| 6% | 15
| 0% |
| Leeds | 113
| 11% | 6
| 0% |
| Manchester | 177
| 12% | 5
| 0% |
| Sheffield | 58
| 12% | 11
| 0% |
| PM peak departures (1600-1859)
|
| Birmingham | 189
| 6% | 15
| 1% |
| Leeds | 117
| 9% | 6
| 0% |
| Manchester | 182
| 8% | 9
| 4% |
| Sheffield | 63
| 13% | 12
| 0% |
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/rai02-capacity-and-overcrowding,
Table RAI0212; Table RAI0214 [accessed March 2015]
179. None of the fast long-distance services
highlighted in Table 15 have passengers in excess of capacity
(train capacity includes an allowance for some standing passengers).
The overcrowding illustrated by the percentage of services carrying
passengers in excess of capacity occurs on other routes. As discussed
above, the passengers standing on long-distance services departing
from Manchester are likely to represent commuter traffic making
use of the stop at Stockport.
180. Sir Richard Leese, Leader of Manchester
City Council, told us that "two of the 10 most overcrowded
trains in the country are trains from Manchester to the north-east;
so yes, we have very real overcrowding problems."[224]
He said on some commuter services "people have to stand for
longer than 20 minutes … there is a lot of overcrowding on
commuter train services." Sir Richard thought that high-speed
rail would help with these problems through releasing capacity
in the existing network but "not on its own—other work
is under way, not least the Northern Hub work, which should be
completed by 2018."[225]
181. The main beneficiaries of the overcrowding
relief provided by HS2 will be London commuters on the West Coast
Main Line.
Space for commuter and freight
train paths
182. The Strategic Case stated that "parts
of the West Coast Main Line are full in terms of the number of
trains, many of which are already full to overflowing at certain
times of the day."[226]
Lord Deighton said that "everybody agrees there is no room
for more train paths."[227]
RECENT REQUESTS FOR TRAIN PATHS TURNED DOWN
183. The Secretary of State said that the Department
had taken a number of measures to increase capacity on the West
Coast Main Line but "train companies want to operate extra
services and they are being prevented from offering those extra
services because we do not have the train paths available."[228]
Mr Scott told us that Virgin Trains have negotiated for 24 months
to allow the introduction of additional services to Blackpool
and Shrewsbury, although he noted that, "it is not, crucially,
additional paths into London. It is an extension of two existing
services to the north."[229]
Mr Plummer of Network Rail said that "they ideally wanted
new paths the full length of the corridor, but we found a compromise,
and we will continue to find ways of making a compromise on some
of that."[230]
'STEP CHANGE' REQUIRED
184. The Strategic Case argued that "without
a step change in capacity our main north-south railways will be
overwhelmed."[231]
Network Rail wrote that the first phase of HS2 will "relieve
an acute capacity problem on the West Coast Main Line … for
which there is otherwise no viable long-term solution."[232]
Mr Plummer argued that "you cannot sensibly keep incrementalising
your way forward with regard to the corridor from London to Birmingham
to Manchester and beyond into the east as well. Therefore, we
needed to build a new line."[233]
He explained the benefits that HS2 would bring:
"Not only do you create additional capacity
with the new line, you can put your faster services on that line,
but by taking those trains off the West Coast Main Line, you get
an extra benefit, because the trains are then running at more
consistent speeds. You get the extra capacity on the new line
and more efficient use of capacity on the existing line, so that
is a double benefit."[234]
ARGUMENTS THAT MORE TRAIN PATHS COULD BE ADDED
185. Some witnesses argued that train paths could
be added. Mr Rukin of Stop HS2 said that:
"HS2 Ltd and the department have consistently
ignored other ways to increase capacity, including the ones that
are planned, such as bringing in ERTMS [the European Railway Traffic
Management System], which is automatic signalling, so you will
be able to increase the number of trains and potentially the speed
of the trains on the existing tracks."[235]
186. Mr Plummer said that "We will always
be able to do more things to eke out additional capacity in relieving
constraints somewhere on the network, so I do not deny that possibility."
He said that Network Rail were "challenging ourselves to
look at fundamentally different ways of resignalling capacity
on the network as a whole and the capacity that that could unlock"
but he thought that it was "just putting off the inevitable
and that we will need to do something much more fundamental at
some stage."[236]
187. We accept that the West Coast Main Line
is nearing full capacity in terms of train paths. Future technological
innovations could however release capacity.
188. The Government has not been able to present
the public with all the relevant information about how busy train
services are due to confidentiality agreements with the train
operators. We have not seen convincing evidence that the nature
of the capacity problem warrants building HS2.
Chapter 4: Conclusions and recommendations
189. Overcrowding on long-distance services on
the West Coast Main Line today appears largely to be a problem
on Friday evenings and weekend services. (Paragraph 163)
190. None of the fast long-distance services
highlighted in Table 15 have passengers in excess of capacity
(train capacity includes an allowance for some standing passengers).
The overcrowding illustrated by the percentage of services carrying
passengers in excess of capacity occurs on other routes. As discussed
above, the passengers standing on long-distance services departing
from Manchester are likely to represent commuter traffic making
use of the stop at Stockport. (Paragraph 179)
191. The main beneficiaries of the overcrowding
relief provided by HS2 will be London commuters on the West Coast
Main Line. (Paragraph 181)
192. We accept that the West Coast Main Line
is nearing full capacity in terms of train paths. Future technological
innovations could however release capacity. (Paragraph 187)
- The Government has not been able to present the
public with all the relevant information about how busy train
services are due to confidentiality agreements with the train
operators. We have not seen convincing evidence that the nature
of the capacity problem warrants building HS2. (Paragraph 188)
156 Strategic Case, p 18 Back
157
Strategic Case, p 1 Back
158
Strategic Case, p 12 Back
159
Strategic Case, p 49 Back
160
Moving one tonne a distance of one kilometre. Back
161
Strategic Case, p 50 Back
162
Strategic Case, p 47 Back
163
Strategic Case, pp 12, 13, 55 Back
164
The Strategic Case did not indicate whether passengers were standing
on commuter or long-distance trains. Back
165
Strategic Case, p 64 Back
166
Strategic Case, pp 24, 89 Back
167
Q66 Back
168
Q107 Back
169
Q203 Back
170
Written evidence from Rail Freight Group (EHS0035) Back
171
Q44 Back
172
Letter from Chairman to Secretary of State for Transport, 22 October
2014 Back
173
The Department for Transport define a 'typical' weekday for the
purpose of crowding statistics as a midweek weekday (i.e. Tuesday-Thursday)
during school term-time on which services are not disrupted and
passenger numbers are not affected by unusual events. Back
174
The total number of standard class and first class seats on the
services in the specified period. Back
175
The critical load is the highest number of passengers on an individual
service on arrival at or on departure from a city. The figure
in the table is the sum of the critical loads for each train in
the specified period. Back
176
The average percentage of seats taken when the services in the
specified period are at critical load. Back
177
Letter from the Secretary of State for Transport to Chairman,
19 November 2014 Back
178
Q218 Back
179
The lengthened Pendolino trains have seven standard class carriages
and four first class carriages. Back
180
Letter from the Secretary of State for Transport to Chairman,
19 November 2014 Back
181
Q82 Back
182
Q44 Back
183
Q100 Back
184
Q218 Back
185
Q203 Back
186
Q218 Back
187
Q203 Back
188
QQ203, 205 Back
189
Advance tickets must be purchased in advance and can only be used
to travel on a particular service. Back
190
@VirginTrains, 23 January 2015: https://twitter.com/VirginTrains/status/558618765534175233
[accessed February 2015]. Manchester United did not have a fixture
on 24 January (although Manchester City had a home FA Cup tie
against Middlesbrough, 3pm kick off). Back
191
Manchester United play their home fixtures at Old Trafford, located
just outside Manchester. Back
192
Strategic Case, p 24 Back
193
Strategic Case, p 1 Back
194
The Department for Transport define a 'typical' weekday for the
purpose of crowding statistics as a midweek weekday (i.e. Tuesday-Thursday)
during school term-time on which services are not disrupted and
passenger numbers are not affected by unusual events. Back
195
The critical load is the highest number of passengers on an individual
service on arrival at or on departure from a city. The figure
in the table is the sum of the critical loads for each train in
the specified period. Back
196
Q218 Back
197
Q115 Back
198
Letter from the Secretary of State to the Chairman, 19 November
2014 Back
199
Written evidence from the Department for Transport (EHS0020) Back
200
Strategic Case, p 62 Back
201
Letter from the Secretary of State to the Chairman, 12 February
2015 Back
202
Written evidence from Chris Stokes (EHS0105) Back
203
Where a city has more than one station in the city centre, the
number of passengers arriving into the city centre is the number
of passengers on a service at its first call at a city centre
station. For example, for a service that arrives first at Manchester
Oxford Road station and then Manchester Piccadilly, the number
of passengers arriving into the city centre will be the number
on the service when it arrives at Oxford Road. For services departing
a service, the total number of passengers is the number on a service
after the last call at a city centre station. Back
204
The Secretary of State explained how the statistics are calculated
in his 12 February 2015 letter: "For example, for journeys
from Euston to Milton Keynes, customers can purchase a Virgin
Trains only ticket, a London Midland only ticket, or a ticket
valid on both services. The Virgin and London Midland only ticket
sales will be allocated directly to the relevant operators. For
tickets valid on both, a proportion of journeys will be allocated
to Virgin Trains and a proportion to London Midland." Back
205
A journey of about 20 miles. Back
206
Letter from the Chairman to the Secretary of State, 26 January
2015 Back
207
Office of Rail Regulation, Passenger Rail Usage Quality Report,
January 2015, p 8: http://orr.gov.uk/__data/
assets/pdf_file/0015/4371/passenger-usage-quality-report.pdf
[accessed March 2015] Back
208
The total number of standard class and first class seats on the
services in the specified period. On commuter services, this also
includes an allowance for standing. Back
209
The critical load is the highest number of passengers on an individual
service on arrival at or on departure from a city. The figure
in the table is the sum of the critical loads for each train in
the specified period. Back
210
The average percentage of seats taken when the services in the
specified period are at critical load. Back
211
The total number of standard class and first class seats on the
services in the specified period. Back
212
The critical load is the highest number of passengers on an individual
service on arrival at or on departure from a city. The figure
in the table is the sum of the critical loads for each train in
the specified period. Back
213
The average percentage of seats taken when the services in the
specified period are at critical load. Back
214
Q203 Back
215
Q100 Back
216
It was not possible to split this data by commuter/long-distance
services as with the data for London Euston above. Back
217
Includes standard class and first class. Back
218
Includes standard class and first class. Back
219
Our calculation. Back
220
Equivalent figures for the 1 hour AM peak are not available. Back
221
The percentage of services that are carrying passengers above
the train's capacity. A train's capacity includes an allowance
for standing passengers. Back
222
Virgin Trains services for Birmingham and Manchester; East Coast
services for Leeds; East Midlands Trains services for Sheffield. Back
223
As a percentage of the standard class critical load (the standard
class critical load is the number of passengers in standard class
when the train. Back
224
Q153 Back
225
Q153 Back
226
Strategic Case, p 11 Back
227
Q218 Back
228
Q218 Back
229
Q209 Back
230
Q105 Back
231
Strategic Case, p 45 Back
232
Written evidence from Network Rail (EHS0072) Back
233
Q103 Back
234
Q103 Back
235
Q80 Back
236
Q105 Back
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