1.The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is undergoing a period of revolutionary change. A transformation of power—who wields it, how it is exercised—is catalysing radical changes to the order and organisation of the region. The transition is messy and chaotic. It is challenging to forecast how the region might evolve, but it is likely to be unstable, to involve high levels of violence, and to constitute an ongoing challenge to policy makers. Policy makers will have to be prepared to increasingly take account of power structures, outside the traditional ones of governments.
2.The Middle East is an ambiguous geographical construct. It is, after all, an expanse that spans three continents: Africa, Asia and Europe. There are also elements of shared history, language and religion, none of which entirely encompass the region.
Figure 1: Map of the Middle East and North Africa
3.Our working definition is that the MENA is a region composed of the states of the Arabian Peninsula (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen); the Levant states of Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Palestinian Territories; and North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia) plus Iran, Israel and Turkey. The organisation of our report has not, however, been geographically bound. There is no one-size-fits-all approach, rather a range of different experiences and no neat solutions which encompass the whole region. We have considered one overarching theme—the transformation of power, which is disrupting the whole region—and have been directed by the concentration of UK interests. Therefore, the Gulf states play a key role in our report, as does Iran as a resurgent power.
4.As we publish this report, the UK is in the midst of a general election campaign, as well as negotiating its exit from the EU. Political attention will inevitably be diverted away from the MENA, but we urge continued engagement. The UK is facing significant shifts in its foreign policy stance: it is an opportunity which must be seized to review long-standing positions of successive governments. We hope that the evidence we present and the conclusions and recommendations we draw offer the new UK Government guidance, stimulate a debate on current UK policy and support a fresh and practical approach to the region, constructing a policy in British national interests.
5.Our report first surveys the profoundly transformed context of the region (Chapter 2). It then considers and questions current British policy positions (Chapter 3). We continue to address four transformative shifts in the following chapters: social change, communications and demography (Chapter 4); the role of external powers (Chapter 5); evolution of Middle East states (Chapter 6); and power beyond the state (Chapter 7). We consider trade and economic policy (Chapter 8) and, finally, we look at future British policy requirements and trends (Chapter 9).
6.We conducted this inquiry between October 2016 and April 2017, taking evidence from a range of international and UK-based witnesses. We had planned to visit both Riyadh and Tehran but this did not prove possible due to parliamentary business.
7.The Members of the Committee who conducted this inquiry are listed in Appendix 1. We are grateful for the written and oral evidence that was submitted to the inquiry and the witnesses who provided it are listed in Appendix 2. All of the evidence is published online.4 The Call for Evidence, issued on 17 October 2016, is also published online.5
8.We are particularly indebted to the young people—students, activists and analysts—who took part in a roundtable in November 2016. Their evidence, which we found lively and candid, was taken under the Chatham House Rule and can be found in Appendix 3. Not all the young people wished to be named but those that did are listed. Finally, we would also like to thank our Specialist Adviser, Dr Simon Mabon.
9.We make this report to the House for debate.
4 Evidence published online at: http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/international-relations-committee/inquiries/parliament-2015/power-in-middle-east-inquiry/power-in-middle-east-publications/
5 Call for evidence published online at: http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/international-relations-committee/news-parliament-2015/call-for-evidence-mena/