Rising nuclear risk, disarmament and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Contents
Appendix 3: Call for Evidence
As a result of rising tensions between nuclear-armed states and the fragmenting of existing non-proliferation and arms control agreements, nuclear weapons are on the international agenda in a way they have not been since the end of the Cold War.
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), along with other components of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, form a critical pillar of the rules-based international order. Since the NPT’s most recent Review Conference in 2015 there have been significant developments affecting the proliferation, development and use of nuclear weapons. The United States has taken the step of withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, opened negotiations with North Korea, and announced its intention to pull out of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) with Russia. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed states have begun significant modernisation programmes, with the United States and Russia signalling the substantial expansion of future capabilities and considering the use of nuclear weapons in the battlefield.
Rising nuclear tensions have been accompanied by a growing dissatisfaction amongst proponents of nuclear disarmament. In 2017, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (commonly referred to as the Ban Treaty) opened for signature, further widening the divide between nuclear-armed states (and their allies) and proponents of disarmament.
In this context, the House of Lords International Relations Committee is launching an inquiry into the NPT and nuclear disarmament, during which it will examine the state of global nuclear diplomacy and the United Kingdom’s role in it. During this inquiry the Committee will focus on the non-proliferation and disarmament aspects of the NPT, and not consider directly the civilian use of nuclear energy.
Nuclear risk
- What is your evaluation of the current level of risk that nuclear weapons, of any type, could be used?
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
- Ahead of the 2020 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), what are the biggest challenges facing global nuclear diplomacy?
(1) To what extent do states still view the NPT as relevant?
(2)What are the prospects for other components of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty (CTBT)?
(3)How important are these agreements to the wider rules-based international order?
(4) To what extent does the existence of three nuclear armed states outside the NPT (India, Israel and Pakistan) destabilise the overall regime?
(5)What prospects are there for a Middle East WMD free zone?
The United States
- To what extent will the United States’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, as well as US efforts to achieve the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula, affect the wider nuclear nonproliferation regime?
Nuclear arms control
- To what extent and why are existing nuclear arms control agreements being challenged, particularly the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and what prospect is there for further such agreements? What prospects are there of progress in negotiating a Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT)?
Nuclear modernisation programmes
- What effect will nuclear renewal programmes have on the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime? To what extent could technological developments—including in missile capabilities, warhead strength, and verification—undermine existing non-proliferation and arms control agreements?
New technologies
- To what extent will technological developments, both directly relating to nuclear weapons and in the wider defence and security sphere, affect nuclear diplomacy?
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
- If it were to enter into force, how would the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (commonly referred to as the Ban Treaty) affect efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and bring about disarmament?
The P5
- What are the policies of other P5 countries (China, France, Russia and the United States), and the UK’s other partners, on the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and on nuclear weapons more generally? Have these policies changed, and if so, why? How effective has the P5 process been, and what role will it have in the future?
The role of the UK
- How effective a role has the UK played in global nuclear diplomacy in recent years? How could the UK more effectively engage on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament? What should the UK Government’s priorities be ahead of the 2020 NPT Review Conference?