1.Afghanistan is “trapped by its geography”.1 A poor, landlocked country in a region of strategic importance, its challenges are long-standing.
2.Hussain Haqqani, Director for South and Central Asia, Hudson Institute, said Afghanistan had been created “as a buffer state”2 and “the countries between which it was created as a buffer have plans for it that do not match the aspirations of its peoples”.3 Lord Sedwill KCMG FRGS, former Cabinet Secretary and former National Security Adviser, said it had been “a theatre in which regional rivalries have played out” and “neighbours have meddled”.4 Its neighbours saw Afghanistan “through the prism of geopolitical state interest” and were driven by their “national insecurities”.5
3.Box 1 sets out a timeline of Afghanistan’s political history since 1979.
1979: The Soviet Union took over effective control of Afghanistan following the overthrow and death of President Amin.6 1988–89: The Soviet Union withdrew troops. 1992: The Soviet-backed regime of Dr Mohammad Najibullah was overthrown by the mujahideen (decentralised guerrilla groups taking inspiration from Islam).7 Civil war broke out. 1996: The Taliban (an ultraconservative and principally Pashtun-ethnic political and religious faction that emerged in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s, led by a former mujahideen fighter, Mullah Mohammad Omar)8 seized control of Kabul. Around 1996: Al-Qaeda, a militant Islamist organisation founded by Osama bin Laden and Arab fighters who fought against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, re-established its headquarters in Afghanistan.9 1997: The Taliban was recognised as ruling Afghanistan by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. It controlled about two-thirds of country. October 2001: US-led bombing of Afghanistan following the September 11 attacks. Anti-Taliban Northern Alliance forces entered Kabul shortly afterwards. December 2001: Afghan groups agreed a deal at a conference in Bonn, Germany.10 2004: The Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan was ratified.11 The first presidential elections were held. 2005: Parliamentary elections were held. |
2001–02: The UK responded to the 9/11 attacks by action with the US to remove al-Qaeda from Afghanistan and hunt Osama bin Laden. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was established, based on UN Security Council Resolution 1386 (2001).35 2003: NATO took the lead of ISAF.36 2003–06: ISAF expanded across Afghanistan.37 2006–09: Ground military operations in Helmand province.38 2011–14: Handover of security from ISAF to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).39 2014: The ISAF mission was completed.40 The UK withdrew combat troops.41 2015: NATO’s Resolute Support Mission was established to provide training, advice and assistance to the Afghan security forces and institutions. The UK is a contributor.42 The total audited cost of UK operations in Afghanistan from 2001–02 to 2013–14 was £21.3 billion.43 Up to 10,000 UK troops have contributed to NATO missions in Afghanistan to date.44 There were 456 British troops killed during the campaign (2001–14) and over 600 personnel sustained life-changing injuries.45 |
17.At the start of military operations in 2001, Tony Blair said the UK was “taking action” on “three fronts—military, diplomatic, humanitarian”.46 During the period of combat operations, the UK’s engagement was “not simply … a ‘war in Afghanistan’”: it sought to “address the country’s poverty, insecurity, poor infrastructure, weak governance and fragile economy”, and participated in “a wide range of projects to improve education, healthcare and governance”.47
18.Afghanistan became the fifth-largest recipient of UK bilateral ODA in 2002,48 and remained in the top six from 2003 until 2005, rising to third in 2008 and second in 2010.49 Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon, Minister of State, Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), said the UK had provided “over £3 billion in development assistance” to Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban administration in 2001.50
19.In the period since 2015, Afghanistan has generated less attention in the UK, as other national security priorities have come to the fore.51 However, the UK remains a significant contributor. There are 850 UK troops currently deployed to NATO’s Resolute Support Mission,52 and the UK has “one of the largest and most active diplomatic efforts”.53 The UK provides £70 million in funding for the Afghan National Security Forces each year54 and is the third largest bilateral donor to Afghanistan, providing £167 million in official development assistance (ODA) in 2020–21.55
20.No select committee of either House has published a report on the UK’s engagement in Afghanistan since 2014.56
21.In Chapter 2 we consider the UK’s role in and policy towards Afghanistan. In Chapter 3 we consider the Afghan state and governance. In Chapter 4 we consider the Afghan economy, including aid dependency and the illicit drugs trade. In Chapter 5 we consider the Taliban and terrorist groups in Afghanistan, including the links between them. In Chapter 6 we consider external actors and their objectives in Afghanistan. In Chapter 7 we consider the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and NATO training. Finally, in Chapter 8 we consider the peace talks in Doha, and possible future international and UK support for Afghanistan.
22.We thank our Specialist Adviser, Dr Weeda Mehran, Department of Politics, University of Exeter, and all our witnesses.
2 Afghanistan’s borders were finalised in the 1890s to reflect the concerns of the British Empire and Russia. Whitney Azoy, Middle East Institute, ‘Post-Buffer Afghanistan: A Nation-State Here to Stay?’ (17 April 2012): https://www.mei.edu/publications/post-buffer-afghanistan-nation-state-here-stay [accessed 5 January 2021]
3 Q 51. The state has multiple ethnic groups within its borders, and its border with Pakistan cuts through ethnic Pashtun communities.
6 Office of the historian—US Department of State, ‘The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan and the US Response, 1978–1980’: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/soviet-invasion-afghanistan [accessed 5 January 2021]
7 Britannica, ‘Mujahideen’: https://www.britannica.com/topic/mujahideen-Afghani-rebels [accessed 5 January 2021]
8 Britannica, ‘Taliban’: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Taliban [accessed 5 January 2021], Britannica, ‘Civil war, mujahideen-Taliban phase (1992–2001)’: https://www.britannica.com/place/Afghanistan/Civil-war-mujahideen-Taliban-phase-1992–2001#ref727635 [accessed 5 January 2021] and Q 87 (Lord Sedwill)
9 Britannica, ‘Al-Qaeda’: https://www.britannica.com/topic/al-Qaeda [accessed 5 January 2021]
10 The Bonn Agreement established an Interim Authority for Afghanistan, the legal framework until the adoption of a new constitution, and the integration of all armed groups into the new Afghan armed forces under the authority of the Interim Authority. UN Peacemaker, ‘Agreement on Provisional Arrangements in Afghanistan Pending the Re-establishment of Permanent Government Institutions (Bonn Agreement)’: https://peacemaker.un.org/afghanistan-bonnagreement2001 [accessed 5 January 2021]
11 Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, The Constitution of Afghanistan: http://www.afghanembassy.com.pl/afg/images/pliki/TheConstitution.pdf [accessed 5 January 2021]
12 Q 1. It is estimated that 500,000 Afghan civilians were killed between 1979 and 1988. Accurate data for the period 1989–2001 is not available; it is estimated that at least 9,800 civilians died between April 1992 and March 1995 although the true death toll is likely to have been significantly higher. World Peace Foundation, ‘Afghanistan: Soviet invasion and civil war’ (7 August 2015): https://sites.tufts.edu/atrocityendings/2015/08/07/afghanistan-soviet-invasion-civil-war/ [accessed 5 January 2021]. About 157,000 people were killed in Afghanistan from 2001–2020, of which more than 43,000 were civilians. Watson Institute, Brown University, ‘Costs of War’: https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/civilians/afghan#:~:text=About%20157%2C000%20people%20have%20been,those%20killed%20have%20been%20civilians [accessed 5 January 2021]
15 UNAMA, ‘Afghanistan peace talks fail to slow civilian casualty toll’ (27 October 2020): https://unama.unmissions.org/afghanistan-peace-talks-fail-slow-civilian-casualty-toll [accessed 5 January 2021]
16 UN OHCHR, ‘Afghanistan: 10,000 civilian casualties for sixth straight year’ (22 February 2020): https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=25594 [accessed 5 January 2021]
18 World Bank, ‘Population, total—Afghanistan’: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=AF [accessed 5 January 2021]
20 Jacob Ausubel, ‘Populations skew older in some of the countries hit hard by COVID-19’, Pew Research Centre (22 April 2020): https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/22/populations-skew-older-in-some-of-the-countries-hit-hard-by-covid-19/ [accessed 5 January 2021]
23 Written evidence from the Drugs & (dis)order Research Project, through the British and Irish Agencies Afghanistan Group (AFG0013)
26 Ibid.
30 BBC News, ‘US troops in Afghanistan: Allies and Republicans alarmed at withdrawal plan’ (18 November 2020): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-54980141 [accessed 5 January 2021]. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 was passed by the US Congress with bipartisan support in January 2021, overriding a Presidential veto. This introduced additional reporting requirements for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, including an assessment of the impact on the US counterterrorism mission and the role of US allies, including NATO. Detailed reports should be submitted by the Department of Defence, in consultation with the Department of State and the Director of National Security, to relevant congressional committees, or no additional expenses for the withdrawal will be permitted. It is unlikely that these can be completed in time for a withdrawal of 2,500 troops on 15 January. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, section 1215 [accessed 5 January 2021]
32 Ibid.
33 ‘Text: Tony Blair’s statement’ The Guardian (7 October 2001): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/oct/07/afghanistan.terrorism11 [accessed 5 January 2021]
34 Cabinet Office, ‘Policy paper: The UK’s work in Afghanistan’ (14 January 2014): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uks-work-in-afghanistan/the-uks-work-in-afghanistan [accessed 5 January 2021]
35 United Nations Security Council, ‘Resolution 1386 (2001). Adopted by the Security Council at its 4443rd meeting, on 20 December 2001’: http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/doc/1386 [accessed 5 January 2021]
36 NATO, ‘ISAF’s mission in Afghanistan (2001–2014) (Archived)’ (1 September 2015): https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_69366.htm [accessed 5 January 2021]
37 Cabinet Office, ‘Policy paper: The UK’s work in Afghanistan’ (14 January 2014): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uks-work-in-afghanistan/the-uks-work-in-afghanistan [accessed 5 January 2021]
38 Ibid.
39 NATO, ‘ISAF’s mission in Afghanistan (2001–2014) (Archived)’ (1 September 2015): https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_69366.htm [accessed 5 January 2021]
40 Ibid.
41 Cabinet Office, ‘Policy paper: The UK’s work in Afghanistan’ (14 January 2014): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uks-work-in-afghanistan/the-uks-work-in-afghanistan [accessed 5 January 2021]
42 NATO, ‘ISAF’s mission in Afghanistan (2001–2014) (Archived)’ (1 September 2015): https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_69366.htm [accessed 5 January 2021]
43 This figure includes non-recoverable VAT at current prices (2015). Letter from the Ministry of Defence (13 January 2015): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/494526/FOI2015–08279-Cost_of_the_wars_in_Iraq_and_Afghanistan.pdf [accessed 5 January 2021]
45 Theo Farrell, Unwinnable: Britain’s War in Afghanistan 2001–2014, 1st edition (London: Vintage, 2017), p 1
46 ‘Text: Tony Blair’s statement’, The Guardian (7 October 2001): https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/oct/07/afghanistan.terrorism11 [accessed 5 January 2021]
47 Cabinet Office, ‘Policy paper: The UK’s work in Afghanistan’ (14 January 2014): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uks-work-in-afghanistan/the-uks-work-in-afghanistan [accessed 5 January 2021]
48 ODI, The UK’s approach to linking development and security: assessing policy and practice (May 2012), p 3: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/7658.pdf [accessed 5 January 2021]. A figure is not provided.
49 DfID, Statistics on International Development 2002/03-2006/07 (October 2007), pp 27 and 29 [accessed 5 January 2021]; DfID, Statistics on International Development 2004/05-2008/09, p 26 (October 2009): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/67720/final-printed-sid-2009.pdf [accessed 5 January 2021]; DfID, Statistics on International Development 2014 (October 2014), p 29: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/403381/SID-2014-revised-UNDP-figure-feb15.pdf [accessed 5 January 2021]; ODI, The UK’s approach to linking development and security: assessing policy and practice, p 3 [accessed 5 January 2021]
55 FCDO, ‘Development Tracker Afghanistan’, https://devtracker.fcdo.gov.uk/countries/AF [accessed 5 January 2021]
56 House of Commons Defence Committee, Afghanistan (Fifteenth Report, Session 2013–14, HC Paper 994)