Thirty Seventh Report Contents
Appendix 2: Health Protection (Coronavirus, International Travel) (England) (Amendment) (No. 25) Regulations 2020 (SI 2020/1323)
Further information from the Department for Transport
Ministerial decisions on international travel corridors are informed by risk assessments provided by the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC), working closely with Public Health England (PHE), using a methodology endorsed by the 4 Chief Medical Officers (CMO) of the UK.
The risk assessment takes into account a number of factors. Weekly incidence rate per 100,000 population, test positivity, imported cases and rates of change are key indicators used to identify specific countries, territories or islands that may be considered for an increase or decrease in risk rating. These countries, territories or islands are then subject to deep dives.
Deep dives bring together a broader number of quantitative and qualitative indicators in order to make a more complete assessment of the risk posed, taking into account data limitations and potential biases. Deep dive indicators include:
- an estimate of the proportion of the population that is currently infected (this is known as ‘point prevalence’)
- weekly incidence rate and population size of the country, territory or island (noting smaller population sizes will show more volatility)
- trends in incidence, deaths, hospitalisations and intensive care admissions
- information on laboratory capacity, testing and contact tracing strategies, and test positivity rates
- COVID-19 cases detected in the UK with recent international travel history (imported infections)
- qualitative information related to the reliability of reported data and the maturity of public health systems
- public health measures in place and the enforcement of, and adherence to, those measures
- variations of the above metrics within countries, territories or islands, and information on disease clusters
JBC uses a range of different data sources to produce their assessment, including the European Centre for Disease Control, reporting from national websites, imported cases data collected by Contact Tracing, open source analysis, and FCDO reporting.
Further information regarding the methodology endorsed by the 4 CMOs of the UK is at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-risk-assessment-methodology-for-inbound-international-travel/covid-19-risk-assessment-methodology-for-inbound-international-travel.”
1 December 2020