As set out in the Explanatory Memorandum, the ‘Acquisitive Crime’ project will be fully evaluated and findings will be published.
The Ministry of Justice’s Data and Analytical Services Directorate (DASD) will undertake research and analysis for the evaluation, it is our view that this offers better value for money. The project will include a multi-disciplinary team of social researchers, statisticians and economists to deliver the evaluation programme. We are allocating funding for a principal research officer to oversee the project over three years. In addition, we plan to recruit external researchers on a temporary basis to support elements of the evaluation.
In line with Government Social Research (GSR) protocols we intend to publish an interim report in Summer 2022 and a final report in late 2023. All research reports will be independently peer reviewed.
The research objectives are as follows:
The initial phase will involve a process evaluation, which will include analysis of monitoring information and trail monitoring outcomes, and an evaluation of ‘perceived impacts’, primarily by obtaining views from staff and tag wearers through focus groups with staff; semi-structured interviews, and wearer ‘Tag on’ and ‘Tag off’ surveys. The findings from these will be provided in the interim report.
To assess the impact on reoffending we require a sample size of approximately 1,500 tag wearers to be able to detect statistically significant differences in reoffending rates of 5 percentage points or more. We anticipate reaching this by Summer 2023, enabling the final report to be published in late 2023. Impacts on reoffending will be assessed using propensity score matching, where we will compare reoffending outcomes between offenders subject to GPS tagging and similar offenders who were not. An economic evaluation will use cost-benefit analysis to understand whether the benefits of the measure outweigh its costs relative to other alternatives. The final report will outline findings from both the robust impact evaluation and economic evaluation.
22 March 2021