Economic Affairs Committee
National debt: it’s time for tough decisions

1st Report of Session 2024-25 - published 10 September 2024 - HL Paper 5

Contents

Summary

Chapter 1: Introduction

The UK’s national debt

Figure 1: Public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND), percentage of GDP, UK, financial years ending 1901 to July 2024

Figure 2: General government net debt

Wider economic context

Figure 3: Government spending, revenues and the tax take

Table 1: Government borrowing and debt

Debt and looking ahead

Our inquiry

Chapter 2: Debt sustainability

Does debt matter?

What is meant by ‘sustainability’?

Measuring debt sustainability

Box 1: ‘r-g’

The ‘debt trap’

Chapter 3: The present vulnerabilities of UK debt

Rising costs

Figure 4: Debt interest spending relative to GDP and revenues

The structure of UK debt

Index-linked gilts

Foreign ownership of debt—and international pressures

Maturities—and the impact of quantitative easing

Chapter 4: Challenges to debt sustainability

The context

Demography

Figure 5: UK population and successive outturns and successive projections

Net zero

Defence

The long-run outlook for interest rates

The need for growth

The choices ahead

Chapter 5: A new fiscal framework

Meeting the current debt rule

Figure 6: Average lifespan of fiscal rules in different countries (years)

Is the main debt rule fit for purpose?

An alternative fiscal framework

The new government’s fiscal approach

Summary of conclusions and recommendations

Appendix 1: List of Members and declarations of interest

Appendix 2: List of witnesses

Appendix 3: Call for evidence

Appendix 4: Japan—a brief case study in debt

Evidence is published online at https://committees.parliament.uk/work/8090/how-sustainable-is-our-national-debt/ and available for inspection at the Parliamentary Archives (020 7219 3074).

Q in footnotes refers to a question in oral evidence.





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