Select Committee on International Development Minutes of Evidence


Examination of Witnesses (Questions 239 - 259)

TUESDAY 25 APRIL 2006

PROFESSOR KEITH PALMER, MR MICHAEL PRAGNELL AND DR ANDREW BENNETT

  Q239  Chairman: Thank you, gentlemen, for your patience. You see the way the Committee's minds are working, although one or two members of the Committee may not be able to stay the pace. Obviously, this section is looking at agriculture and the role that agriculture can play. Not only DFID but other agencies involved in development all tend to say the key is agriculture, which is such a large part of the economy of developing countries, or even potentially developing countries. That is the sort of thing we would like to explore. As a starting point, it has been said that the success of the Asian economies—latterly industrial economies—is due to the fact that they have solved their agriculture problems first. Can you give us a flavour of the extent to which that has not happened in Africa, why it has not happened and whether it could happen, and whether the Asian experience could and should transfer to agriculture?

  Mr Pragnell: That is an enormous question, Chairman, but I will start to try and broach it. In very simple terms we have seen three—if I contrast three different approaches: what we have seen in China, what we have seen in India and of what we have seen in Africa. Essentially in China there is a communist government but in effect a capitalist system, with which the administration has continued wrestling given the enormous size of the population and the economy, or potential size of the economy. What they did for many years was to put self-sufficiency in food supply at the very top of every five-year plan—until quite recently, when the Chinese Government recognised something the rest of us could see, that actually that was an unattainable goal. What it did was align a whole series of activities and interests from attracting technology and attracting investment to developing trading systems and supply systems—and, dare I even say it, middle-class consumers in cities like Shanghai. That brought with it a whole economic development, particularly down the east coast and along the south. We see migration from land into the cities of about 20 million populations a year. We see, as a result, productivity improvements in agriculture, which means employment in agriculture is going down, even though output is going up; and the quality of output improves at the same time. However, the key development is the release of the entrepreneur, if I can put it in crude, unsophisticated terms. What we saw in India was indeed a `green revolution' in the Seventies, with a huge investment in technology inputs; and we are now starting to see the benefits of that in terms of its impact on the potential of the overall Indian economy. I would not totally separate from that what we have seen in Pakistan, where there have been similar improvements in agriculture. Again, it is lubricated essentially by the availability of finance or money—I will not go into where that comes from at this stage—and by the entrepreneurial spirit and the freedom to do things on the ground that make things work. We quite palpably have not seen that in Africa of course. The reasons are many and varied. Other than the volatility of rainfall, which clearly has an impact on harvest year to year, there really is no reason why we should not have seen considerable improvement in agricultural productivity, that in itself feeds economic development. Why? I guess one has to say there are many examples of poor governance; inadequacy of education and healthcare; the inadequacy of the right sort of infrastructure development; the absence of finance to lubricate all sorts of things that we have seen examples of in India and China—not lack of interest by corporations such as ours. We are the leaders in our industry; we are the leading supplier in the African Continent—we are active in over thirty countries and we employ over a thousand people on the ground. Last year our sales were almost $160 million, and of that over half was in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the big problem we face is the lack of trickle-down. Lots of money seems to find its way into government, but we do not see that percolate through the economy. I do not know whether Andrew would like to add to that, as someone who has lived on the ground for many years in Africa.

  Dr Bennett: There is the issue of the small and medium size enterprises in Africa, which has not taken off in the same way as it has in Latin America. There are probably good reasons in terms of the climate in which one tries to create some small and medium size enterprises. Some of the actions of donors have on occasions not necessarily encouraged SME development.

  Q240  Mr Davies: Such as?

  Dr Bennett: If you give things to people, it does not create much incentive to people. If you give seed away, people expect to be given seed and create a seed industry, but it kills the seed industry. There is an importance in relation to Africa of understanding the power of the donor community in relation to the rest of the economy and the need to make sure that what one does encourages small and medium size enterprises, not necessarily creates a greater role for government and others in that chain.

  Professor Palmer: As to your question, the answer is very clear. Asia has succeeded in bringing together the infrastructure, the supply industries to supply agriculture, the technologies and the green revolution in a way that has been quite spectacularly successful, despite some external disbenefits. It should be regarded as a major triumph because we were predicting massive starvation in India thirty years ago. I counterpoise that with the experience over the last thirty years in Africa. It has been one of decline, a reduction in real incomes in agriculture. It has been an example of increasing poverty, as measured by the international indicators. I am afraid the answer to your question, what is causing it, is as ever that it is complicated. The reason African farmers, small farmers are very poor, is because the inputs they need to grow things—fertiliser, pesticides and seeds they do not have access to generally at all; if they do have access they are very expensive because of very limited distribution channels. They sell their products to intermediaries. They usually have only one or two people to choose from—take it or leave it—so they do not get a very good price. When they finally harvest the crop and find somebody to buy it, if they do not have storage, they have to sell it immediately because otherwise it rots in the fields. I think that agricultural development in Africa is quite simple: it is simply a matter of bringing together the things everybody knows you need. You need irrigation and electricity to operate pumps because irrigation cannot work without it. We need better transportation and storage facilities. We do not have them, but if you provide those, even in the absence of the green revolution type products, there is enormous potential to increase the productivity of farmers and to increase their incomes. That is the only way you can reduce poverty.

  Q241  John Battle: If I remember rightly, Syngenta sponsored a report on Africa recently on agriculture, which was published in the John Smith Institute[3].

  Mr Pragnell: Yes.

  Q242  John Battle: I thought that that was very, very encouraging, except the general tone and direction—if I were to caricature it as top down—you used the trickle-down model but I am speaking particularly about Africa, which is locked out of the economy of the world really. What is going on in Africa? I think there is still a mindset that you plough the land; you plough until you water, and you hope something happens. You organise the people to do it, or you collectivise the land to do it, and it seems to me that it is still big-scale top-down. I want to know what more can be done for agricultural businesses in the plural, and in the plurality, and in their complexity. One thing that strikes me, following some of the comments that Keith Palmer has just made, is that the whole question of those input services, what are called in the report "extension services"—who provides them? Should it be governments, NGOs, DFID? Who should get into that whole mess there and say that it simply is not going to work to plough the land and get water to it; you need much, much more? Who should provide the extension services? Should it be NGOs; should it be SMEs, because even there, reports are saying they are failing to get engaged at that kind of pitch? Where is the balance—or rather it is not the balance, it is the catalyst. Where will be the catalyst to make sure that agricultural businesses start to work in the African context?

  Mr Pragnell: That is an enormous number of questions. If I can go back to the opening statement of the Chairman, that getting agriculture to the top of the list of priorities would help enormously. The circumstances in China are very different, but if we were to see that as a diktat of policy in an African state, that would be a start. But in the sense that it had a goal—not just that agriculture is important but that "agriculture is important because we want to obtain self-sufficiency in food supply"; or "We want to develop a major export business in these crops"; or "We want to put all our rural populations to work much harder and that will create markets for products that they produce", because what agriculture can do is create a total business system. Product is produced; it is high volume. You need infrastructure to handle it—storage, the road systems, the communications systems. You need technological inputs to improve the yields and to improve the quality, but you cannot generate that until the farmers themselves generate cash, so you need training systems. Training systems spawn SMEs, small companies that act as retailers in both directions, either bringing inputs to the farmer or by helping to trade what they produce. Investment in infrastructure brings different industrial investment into an economy, and that in itself brings the know-how to enable local people to do these jobs. That in itself is a form of education and training. There is a whole cycle of activities which over time will have the sort of impact you refer to; but for all that to take place we need a level playing-field; we need a transparent regulatory system; transparent judicial systems; we need to be sure, as Andrew said, that aid does not undermine such activities. If it is to be sustainable, it demands private sector involvement and giving people themselves a belief that they can better their lot in a productive fashion.

  Professor Palmer: I am interested you have asked about extension services because it is a really problematic area. In this country, in the United States and in developed countries generally in the early stages, agricultural development was strongly supported by government funding and government-provided services; extension services were an important element of it, but a whole range of services including credit support, and there are government programmes even today in the US. That approach in Africa over the last thirty years has been a dismal failure. National governments and donors have made things much worse. A real challenge for donors interested in supporting small farmers on the ground—and I agree it cannot be top-down—is to find mechanisms for targeting donor funding in an intelligent way so that that role of providing essential services and supporting small farmers can be done by non-conventional providers. NGOs certainly have a role, and a couple of NGOs would do it very well. The SMEs, the national private sector, has a role. It is not easy to get them to do these things, but an intelligent approach to structuring partnerships is probably the only way donor support in Africa can work.

  Q243  John Battle: I will try and draw out a practical example. Our Committee has visited Malawi twice in recent years. The first time we went, DFID were providing seed packs for farmers after the drought, to get them going again. That was literally a hand-out programme, and then that dried up and stopped. Who should be providing those seed packs now; should it have been DFID in the first place; did they undermine private sector development by doing it; and in the meantime, given the dearth of private sector development in Malawi, who is going to jump-start future development?

  Dr Bennett: The starter-pack programme, as you know, was much criticised, but it was there to respond to a particular need, an immediate need; farmers were not getting the necessary inputs to produce enough food at a time when Malawi seemed to have gone from a position of surplus. Where criticism might be levelled is the way we think about the sustainability of that activity. How do you get out of it? It needs a strategic approach. It is great to respond to misery and we must do it, but one also needs to understand that there was an embryo seed industry in Malawi. There was a very effective input supply system, run by Admark, which is now defunct. There was a view that inputs were not necessary to promote farming; that you could do it by some form of self-generating lower input system. That has not worked particularly well either. There are very poor soils in Malawi from which you do not get anything unless you put something in. Bad years will happen; that is the reality of agriculture; but it is when you respond in the short term without thinking long-term that you need the benefit of hindsight.

  Professor Palmer: There are two things you have to do at the same time, and it is very difficult. The first thing that you must do in Africa is develop a national seed industry; you have to get people creating seeds and getting them distributed to people who will benefit from them. At the same time you have a concern obviously to help immediately, but the trouble is that if you give seeds free to people, then you tend to destroy the seed industry because you take away the marketplace because it is supplanted by giving free seeds. It is the food-aid syndrome except further down the agricultural chain. There are ways of squaring that circle, and it is really important that donors learn the lesson of how they destroyed the seed industry in Africa. It is very, very weak, and rebuilding it must be a priority, but rebuilding it in a way that very poor farmers can afford to get their hands on those seeds.

  Q244  Joan Ruddock: Obviously Andrew Bennett has a familiarity with Malawi and Africa generally. It seems to me that there is some evidence that the new farmers' clubs are working, where people acting collectively have more buying power and can share expertise, and perhaps have the capacity to respond more effectively to donors and to the private sector working in partnership. Is that your experience?

  Dr Bennett: Farmers working together I think is very sensible and absolutely necessary. When we have defunct national extension services it is the only alternative. The question is, how they connect up. Often they are clubs that are brought together around inputs, not necessarily around outputs. Increasingly, farmers are producing for markets. The happy days of subsistence farmers producing surplus and then must go to market have gone; they all need cash. Therefore more and more farmers are looking at how to produce income. Food crops are not hugely rewarding because in many cases food prices are not very high. Some of the most successful farming clubs are around vegetables and small-stock, where they have been tied into a market chain. Very often, the producer gets less than 15% of the consumer price. Unless you can extend your reach into the market trail and collect more from either the processing or marketing process—and let us face it, most of Africa is about serving local markets. We heard earlier about the export markets, but the great demand is to feed the cities, and to do so when you are facing HIV, which is reducing your labour force in rural areas and reducing your capacity to respond—if you do not plant early you do not get a crop.

  Q245  Joan Ruddock: Is there any significance in the fact that the majority of farmers are female?

  Professor Palmer: There must be, yes!

  Dr Bennett: In many places the tenure issues are major. In many cases traditionally women have been the producers and managers of household budgets. In many countries migration of male labour has been a major factor. If you go to Malawi, huge numbers used to go to work in the mines in South Africa. I do not know whether there is any indication that the dynamic has changed since the tragedy of HIV. I think many young children are heading households rather than very old people who are beyond the capacity to work fully for a day in the field. Most extension programmes or rural development programmes learned very early on that actually in many of the issues it was women who made the decisions. That is a fact of life.

  Q246  Chairman: You said all markets tend to be local; presumably you mean local or regional. In Malawi there was the issue that there was maize around neighbouring countries, but the cost of getting it was very high and there were other food products that were regarded as irrelevant and therefore were not effectively marketed. What are the mechanisms one needs to make markets work effectively and what is the role of donors? Is that something national governments can sort out? How can we remove the obstacles?

  Professor Palmer: Growing markets means putting in two things: transportation systems and better telecommunications systems. Markets are just the abstract concept; what we have been trying to do is join up the producers. It is not currently an effective marketplace serving an effective market because Sub-Saharan Africa does not have the low-cost transportation links to get things to market and still be profitable. The first thing you have to do is identify situations where simply bringing down costs and improving the access to infrastructure will, in and of itself, not only increase markets but also farmers' incomes without any increase of production on the land simply because people have less expensive inputs and get more for their outputs because they pay less away to intermediaries.

  Q247  John Barrett: Turning to private sector investment in agriculture, it seems to me that there are opportunities there in transport, infrastructure and storage, which would dramatically increase agricultural production and the results that flow from that. It does not seem as though the private sector, either from outside or from within sub-Saharan Africa is responding. What do you think are the blockages; or is it that there are better opportunities elsewhere?

  Professor Palmer: This is exactly the challenge we are grappling with, as I mentioned in my note to you. The problem is that there is almost no irrigation in Africa. Actually, today there are literally millions of Africans who are dying because we have a drought, and this is quite apart from anything else; this is something that should be at the top of everybody's agenda—but you are right, it is not happening. In Africa we have been looking at situations in Zambia and Mozambique and Tanzania to see why the potential is not being exploited. It is quite straightforward in a way. There is great potential if you put the irrigation in; agricultural activity will go up because you can control water flows and use modern seeds and get a better modern agriculture, and incomes will go up. However, if you invest in irrigation and that does not happen, then you lose all your money. The challenge is to find a way of creating the infrastructure ahead of it being proven to be the right thing to do. Somebody has got to take the risk that it is a good thing in principle, but it may turn out bad in practice, because things do go wrong. It is particularly difficult in these parts of Africa because the farmers who may or may not respond are very poor people for whom absence of infrastructure is not the only constraint on responding. They need access to credit so they can buy the input to put the fertiliser down and buy the seeds. You have a very complicated situation where the irrigation investment will either be a sensationally good thing and reduce poverty immensely, if all the other things necessary happen, or it will be a complete waste of money if they do not happen. That is what Infraco is trying to do, to use donor money to take some of the early risks and put the infrastructure in place, and then to try and arrange the other complementary things that have to happen. So the governments in the rich countries are taking the risk, and if it happens it will be a jolly good thing for poor farmers. My view is and has always been that unless donors are prepared to provide that sort of support it [pre-emptive irrigation investment] will not happen. The private sector will not take the sorts of risks involved, investing tens of millions in irrigation, only to see a low supply-response in terms of that particular scheme of agriculture. It is therefore very important that donors do give resources to do that, and do it in a way—and this is important—that if rich farmers benefit, they end up paying back some of that money so that it can be used for other development needs. If the benefits are to go to very poor people, they should be allowed to keep those benefits. This should not be a case of wholesale subsidy of infrastructure necessarily, because some of the beneficiaries will always be to afford to pay for it.

  Dr Bennett: Chairman, it is also useful to look at some of the success stories. I think some of the most successful micro or small irrigation schemes have been where they have been producing high-value produce for a close market and responding quickly. Producing carrots 300 miles from the market is not going to work. Historically there was a huge investment in irrigation in Africa, in the 60s and 70s; and there is a famous World Bank report that says most of them are operating below 20% efficiency. That is because the social model was wrong. They went for a large blueprinted irrigation scheme with clever reticulation and beautiful engineering without asking who were the people who were going to farm it and what was the market for. The Gazera worked extraordinarily well when it was run like a military operation; but the moment it became a democratic society it did not do quite so well. We need to learn the lessons of the past before increasing investment in irrigation. Small-scale irrigation is where there has been the greatest success—little stop dams, small vegetable schemes, good for nutrition as well as good for income generation. Once you start putting water on food crops, then the rate of return starts to look somewhat less than able to pay the investment back because food crops have a pretty low value, and transporting them long distances does not pay for it.

  Q248  Chairman: Many of the schemes have been destroyed of course in Zimbabwe, but you did have large-scale farms there which did invest. Interestingly enough, when we were in Malawi the President said he had invited Zimbabwean farmers to undeveloped tracts of Malawi to see how they would apply their techniques. I think we all agree and understand the need for small-scale farming, but is there scope for both? Is there indeed a need for both?

  Professor Palmer: The answer is definitely "yes". At this moment the agribusiness ventures that are being developed in southern Africa are being spawned out of emigration by white farmers who have been expelled [from Zimbabwe] and have been invited into Mozambique and Tanzania and Zambia to deploy their expertise. The whole concept is to create new nuclei where local farmers rely on the expertise of these farmers, but to build a scheme so that the benefits are extended out to a very large number of very poor farmers who would not be able to do this without somebody providing the nucleus of services required to make these profitable ventures. It is very interesting that governments are understanding this time around, for example the importance of giving secure land tenure, long leases or freehold; that they are creating the conditions to allow people to do farming on a commercial basis and then asking donors to support the outgrower schemes around those, which will benefit poor farmers.

  Q249  John Barrett: Will there always be that conflict though between keeping relatively large numbers of smallholders working in agricultural areas as against that drift of people towards the city, which would relatively increase productivity on the land and tackle the poverty there, because if donors are too heavily focused on supporting smallholders it may well be they will never deal with the poverty they are trying to tackle?

  Mr Pragnell: You touch on an extremely good point because if agriculture is to play the role it can play as a catalyst in economic development overall, improving productivity has got to be priority number one. Having made the commitment to agriculture, it is then productivity improvement, and that means progressively less employment. As family members go off to do other things and participate in other parts of the economy, whatever they may be—even if it is only opening a trade store at the end of the road to sell produce, at its simplest—that demands input technology. To imagine we can hold smallholders forever in, dare I call it, a form of economic Utopia, i.e., where things do not change, would not be right.

  Q250  Richard Burden: This follows the same discussion and it is about the role of public/private partnerships in terms of small-scale farmers. Can you point to some examples of good practice whereby those sorts of partnerships have been able to intervene in situations where the scale of involvement is not really attractive to large multinational companies—but also the farmers themselves not necessarily having the technical expertise to move forward?

  Mr Pragnell: The way I would think of public/private partnerships is slightly different. For a company such as ours, investing in excess of $800 million a year in R&D, in many areas at the leading edge of technological development at one extreme, and at the other extreme our products finding their way into the activities of subsistence farming in some of the poorest parts of the world, you can consider that there is quite a gap in terms of our core expertise and what ultimately our products are used for. We have experimented with, or had some experience of public/private partnership in Africa—most recently the seeds venture with a Zimbabwean seed company. I have to say that unfortunately for all the sorts of reasons that you can imagine we have had to shut that down at the end of February this year. It was going nowhere, as were many other things associated with agriculture and other activities in Zimbabwe. In China, on a much larger scale, we have had a much happier experience. We partnered with two or three other producers to invest in a major herbicide manufacturing plant, which we commissioned in 2001. We coupled that then with training programmes for very small farmers on the south-eastern coastal rim of China, where the average farm size was about half an acre. We put energy into training the farmers, and partnered in the establishment of a manufacturing venture, which has proved to be successful. We have got the system running. Now, instead of hand-weeding, they are using a herbicide which enables them to repeat the crop, whereas before they could only have produced a single crop—now they have a double or even a triple crop.

  Q251  Richard Burden: How far was that experience specific to those particular circumstances?

  Mr Pragnell: The way I described it, it was very specific, but the skills that we drew on were skills we deploy in many countries in the developing world in terms of training. We have active training programmes going on throughout central America and many of the countries in South East Asia. Indeed, we have training programmes in some of the most sophisticated markets as well. We regard that as part of our mandate of driving sustainable agriculture so that as we are introducing products we also ensure that farmers understand how to use them and the benefits that they can bring. The investment in the manufacturing plant in China was a major investment but it meant that we brought the whole political system at the provincial and national level into what we were trying to do, with a lot of encouragement from both.

  Professor Palmer: It is an important question. We should not be trying to invent new things when there are examples of successful partnerships in existence. I have already referred in the evidence I submitted[4] to an NGO called Technoserve America, an agricultural focused NGO that is extremely effective in understanding that what you are trying to do is create sustainable business ventures and then access government donor grant money to specifically make them affordable for the group of people who cannot afford to pay the full cost. They have recently produced a report that I referred to. In Uganda there is a fishing industry that is now well developed where Technoserve were the glue, the integrator on the ground, that got all the parties together in a business sense and made it a great success. There are a number of other examples. They show very consistently that if these are set up as aid projects, they are almost always unsustainable; if they are set up as facilitating small business development, African national private-sector people working with and with funding from donors, you can create over time, with a lot of commitment and effort and getting all the infrastructure in place as well, a really thriving industry. These are the models I think that are the only way to do this. Some bits and pieces without all the other bits and pieces does not work.


  Q252  Joan Ruddock: I wanted to take up on up the issue of the Zimbabwean seed company. Obviously, it has failed but it is a model that you might want to replicate elsewhere. Is this not a problem as much as donors giving out free packs, in terms of the development of the local seed companies, because once multinationals get involved the criticism is that often the indigenous varieties are lost and the farmers then cannot replant seeds from their own crops because they move into the ownership of the multinational companies? Prices inevitably become such that local farmers may not be able to afford those particular seeds. You say this is a successful potential partnership, but there are many criticisms, as I am sure you are aware, of why that is not so. In your evidence you wrote about the Burkina Faso and how you were engaged there in trials that required a new regulatory process, and I would like to know what those trials were trying to achieve.

  Mr Pragnell: If I take the seeds question: seed varieties vary enormously within any geography, and of course they have been developed over many generations—in some instances hundreds of years quite literally. This is for quite simple reasons. You want the right seed in the right soil in those specific climatic conditions. Imagining that it would be advantageous to ride roughshod over indigenous seed varieties probably would not work. However, imagining we might we be able to introduce technology in a nearby area in the form of new seed varieties can help in terms of enhancing yield. If you look for example at the yield curve of maize or corn, as the Americans call it, and you go back to 1900 and finish in 2000, the yield curve makes a steady improvement in terms of productivity of the order of 2 percentage points every single year. That progress is to be encouraged rather than discouraged. As far as saving seeds is concerned, nowhere in the developing world would we ever discourage farmers from saving seeds if that is what they wanted to do. However—

  Q253  Joan Ruddock: You do when it is GM.

  Mr Pragnell: We do not. If however we want to see productivity improvement of the sort I have just described in the example, which I admit is the best example of the lot—but you see it in other crops as well—then saving seed, you go in the opposite direction—because actually what happens is that yield progressively degrades if you operate exclusively on saved seed. Not saving seed is another way of enhancing value on a per-unit area, and therefore output and therefore revenue. It is something that I recognise is said, but the reality is slightly misunderstood. The reason the Zimbabwean venture failed was, as you can imagine, nothing to do with that; there were all the sorts of reasons we read about in the newspapers. The trial in Burkina Faso was an insect-resistant cotton with a gene introduced into the cotton.

  Q254  Joan Ruddock: It was GM.

  Mr Pragnell: A GM cotton. Regulation is extremely important in our industry, be it in use of chemicals—for obvious reasons—or the toxicological environment where considerations have to be taken account of, and of course we were introducing a GM product. There is a similar frame that has to be created nationally, and what we did was help the Burkina Faso Government to set up a regulatory system which would enable them to control what may eventuate, and it was very satisfactory. You may well then ask, should not somebody else do that—"don't you have a vested interested in all of this—you are the supplier?" In some senses that is true. However, we are also the developers of the knowledge in this area and we work with regulators all over the world, when asked, to help them move their regulatory processes and rulings forward. Seventy per cent of agricultural research now is in the private sector, so it is logical that the know-how will come from the private sector in the development of these regulations.

  Dr Bennett: The conservation of indigenous planting material is a key issue for everybody. That is why the Global Crop Diversity Trust was set up, of which Syngenta is one of the sponsors of the endowment fund and which the Foundation is working on. There will be accidents. The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research has many of the gene banks, and there have been occasions when local varieties have disappeared not simply because the seed industries but because of civil war and various other problems; and maintaining these collections around the world in the public domain under the auspices of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture is an essential issue that the public and the private sectors need to collaborate on.

  Q255  Mr Davies: I am certainly intrigued by Syngenta's interest in Africa. As I understand your market, you are in the business of producing high-margin crop protection agents—fungicides, herbicides, insecticides and so forth. Since the marginal productivity of these chemicals has been falling rather dramatically in the United States and the EU, you have increasingly got into developing new, also high-margin, cloned seed types, which obviate the need for these chemicals. But these things are all high margin, and you have just said you have a very high R&D budget and have to reclaim that in the high-margin products that you are marketing. In Africa—at least north of the Limpopo and south of the Sahara, you have, it seems to me, very little in the way of a realistic market for high-margin products of this kind. You have small farmers with no capital and usually no title to the land that they are farming. Therefore, while I can see that Africa is attractive as a regulatory environment for running trials on new crop types, such as in Burkina Faso, in terms of your mainstream business I do not quite see what the prospect is. It may well be that theoretically you could get very substantial increases in yields by applying massive amounts of agricultural chemicals in Africa, but not surely on the present structure of African agriculture and with the present purchasing power of African agriculture?

  Mr Pragnell: Approaching 30% of our sales are to emerging markets, which is a very high proportion of our sales, and this is because agriculture in many emerging markets is a very dynamic activity.

  Q256  Mr Davies: You are including Asia there, which is very different.

  Mr Pragnell: I am including Asia, Latin America, central America—

  Q257  Mr Davies: Very different—different land title and, as you rightly say, in China proximity to—

  Mr Pragnell: The herbicide example in China is a product that was developed 40 years ago; it is not one of your leading-edge very high-margin R&D-intensive that we have invested 200 million to bring the product to market et cetera. Many of the products we sell in Africa are extremely easy to use. It is not that they are—

  Q258  Mr Davies: What proportion of your sales is in Africa?

  Mr Pragnell: Approximately $160 million.

  Q259  Mr Davies: North of the Limpopo!

  Mr Pragnell: I cannot give you the exact number but it is of the order of around $80 million in sub-Saharan Africa. We are the largest single supplier and very long-established. We have got people on the ground—


3   The Smith Institute, Going for Growth: Science, Technology and Innovation in Africa, Edited by Professor Calestous Juma, 2005 Back

4   Ev 187 Back


 
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