Select Committee on Foreign Affairs Fourth Report


5  INDIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

219. Between 1991 and 2001 India's economy expanded by an average of 6.2% a year. Over the last three years economic growth has been even higher: it was 7.2% in 2003, 8% in 2004 and 8.5% in 2005. [460] The graph below compares India's rate of growth since 1997 with that of the UK and that of the other major rising economic power in Asia—China. Unlike China which has taken a traditional path to development, beginning with agricultural growth, moving to low-cost manufacturing and now progressing up the value-added chain, India's growth is taking place at the other end. Its service sector made up more than 50% of GDP in 2006, with industry accounting for only 27% and agriculture 22%.[461]



Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2006

220. What India's future economic growth rate will be is a question of hot debate in India.[462] We heard very different views during our visit there and in the evidence submitted to our inquiry. The Foreign Secretary told us that India's current growth rate was sustainable because of its young population:

    India still has enormous potential; one of the things that is very different in India from the position is China is that India has a young work force, so it has the potential of a dynamic, growing pool of available labour.[463]

Lord Desai, retired professor of economics at the LSE, argued that India might grow more rapidly than China in the future as its "transition problems" would be less "given its access to the English language, its similar property rights and legal structure".[464]

221. However, other commentators have suggested that India will not be able to sustain over 7% growth indefinitely. Martin Wolf, Associate Editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times, argued:

    if the [trend] rate were 8%, that would imply an extraordinary, though not completely unique, efficiency in the use of capital. The investment rate in India is not much more than half that of China, and although I am prepared to accept that the investment return and the efficiency with which capital is used are higher, it is difficult to believe that it is going to be that much higher on a sustained basis. The population is favourable and is not a constraint, but despite what many people say the same will be true of China for the next 25 years, so that is not a big difference.[465]

When we were in India some commentators also warned that India's GDP growth had not been steady over the last 20 years. During India's last economic slowdown in 2001, for example, it only achieved GDP growth of 4.1%.[466] In June last year the Financial Times reported fears of another slowdown after the Mumbai share index dropped by 9% (although it subsequently bounced back in August 2006[467]).[468] Many witnesses during our inquiry told us that India's economic growth would also be limited by high unemployment and low literacy levels. We discuss these and other potential limitations to growth at the end of this chapter.

222. Yet even while describing himself as one of the "slightly more pessimistic" observers, Mr Wolf, believed India could sustain a GDP growth rate of 6%, unless faced with a disaster:

    […] I strongly believe that 6% is sustainable indefinitely. There is an enormous catch-up potential in the country; its GDP per head of purchasing power is about a tenth of that of the world's leaders and about half that of China.[…]. They are not really using many of their opportunities in manufacturing, most notably their competitiveness—if they improve policy a little, it is potentially very considerable in significant areas of economic activity—and they have the domestic demand engine which comes from their huge size.

    They can achieve economies of scale internally, so unless they mess up in a rather big way or there is some disaster such as a war with Pakistan that turns nuclear—something horrendous—I think that 6% is very plausible;[…].[469]

Impact on the UK and global economy

223. Mr Wolf told the Committee that it was important not to exaggerate India's impact on the global economy. Indian IT services had been a "significant and… largely beneficial competitive force" and India was "one of the factors, although again not a decisive one, in the tightening of the world's oil markets". However, India's impact was "nascent but not yet really significant". Mr Wolf pointed out that at current prices India's economy was only 40% of that of the UK's and very considerably smaller to that of China's.[470]

224. India has had less of an impact on the UK and global economy so far than China because it is "relying on its domestic market more than exports, consumption more than investment".[471] While India's exports grew by 22% in the 2005-06 financial year, its imports expanded by 33% due to a surge in domestic consumption, leaving its trade deficit at $39.6bn. India attracts less than one-tenth of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) that goes to China each year.[472]

225. However, the FCO stated that "India is beginning to impact on the global economy, and at an accelerating pace."[473] The Foreign Secretary told us that India's strong performance in the high-end services sector was a potential threat to the UK's economy:

    [it is] one of the things that lies behind the Chancellor's insistence that we have to try to keep the edge in education and the spread of knowledge. There are areas that hitherto have been the purview of countries such as the United Kingdom, but in which countries such as India are moving fast ahead.[474]

226. We conclude that the Indian economy is beginning to show signs of the major impact it could have on the world's economy in the future, in particular in the high end knowledge-driven sector. The Government must ensure the UK is able to compete in this new environment.

Trade and investment

227. In 2006, our sister committee, the Trade and Industry Select Committee, inquired into "Trade and Investment Opportunities with India" because of concerns that levels of trade and investment between India and the UK were not as high as they should be given the UK's "unique relationship with India".[475] We consider this issue further in our own inquiry.

British business in India

228. The FCO was very positive about levels of UK exports to and investment in India:

However, Clifford Chance warned:

    Despite historical advantages […] trade between India and the UK remains relatively low.[477]

229. The Trade and Industry Select Committee's Report found that the UK was "not as engaged with India's markets as it should be […] perhaps because UK companies tend to see India as a source of low-cost labour rather an emerging market in its own right" and argued that the UK Government, business and higher education institutions needed to be "far more entrepreneurial in their approach"[478] Lord Desai, retired professor of economics at the LSE, echoed this point in his evidence to us:

    […] I do not think that anybody is sufficiently engaged. I am on some of the taskforces, but nobody is sufficiently engaged. It is not a big enough matter to the UK economy; it is a small thing.[479]

230. UKTI explained that it was diverting further resources to India:

    The UKTI's team in India is one of HMG's biggest overseas operations. As part of UKTI's new strategy for emerging markets, more resources will be allocated to India, including an emphasis on financial markets.[480]

The FCO pointed out that the Indo-British Partnership Network (IBPN) encourages and supports UK businesses, particularly SMEs, to do business in India.[481] JETCO (the UK-India Joint Economic and Trade Committee) also meets annually "in order to discuss specific issues arising out of our economic co-operation and to identify opportunities to enhance bilateral trade and investment in traditional and non-traditional areas."[482]

231. During our visit we were told that UKTI often found it difficult to get feedback from companies on the quality of the advice and information they had been given by UKTI on investing in or trading with India. This was reiterated to us in our evidence session with UKTI by Ian Fletcher, Managing Director, International Group. He told us:

    there is some slight evidentiary bias, in that we tend to hear from the people who are not happy with what they have seen. I suspect that people who have a reasonably good service tend to get on with the business.[483]

232. The Trade and Industry Committee also found that the UK's institutional arrangements in India to promote trade and investment were "characterised by enthusiasm but also confusion", with "too many overlapping bodies with ill-defined responsibilities and often inadequate resources".[484] UKTI described the presence of development agencies in India:

    The development agencies that have offices in India are Scottish Development International (New Delhi), Welsh Development Agency (Bangalore) and British Midlands (a collaborative operation between Advantage West Midlands and the East Midlands Development Agency in Mumbai). The City of London and Think London are also considering opening offices in India.[485]

233. The Trade and Industry Committee's Report argued that organisations should use existing UKTI offices to promote trade and investment and that individual English Regional Development Agencies should not establish representative offices or hire locally engaged Indian staff. [486] In response the Government pointed to the UKTI's new strategy, which states that by March 2008, UKTI will have worked with the devolved administrations and the Regional Development Agencies to review their representation overseas and maximise effectiveness.[487]

234. We asked Andrew Cahn, Chief Executive of UK Trade & Investment and Ian Fletcher, Managing Director, International Group about this. He told us:

    […] there are some strong advantages in having a variety of players in this field. One is [… that t]he devolved Administrations and the RDAs and other bodies like Think London or the Corporation of London have their own resources […] that just brings more resources to the field. […] There are also some strong brands out there which are useful. Scotland really does have a brand of its own to promote. Therefore my comparator organisation, Scottish Development International, has something clear to sell.

    I do not say that there is no issue to be looked at. That is why we have set up this review. The issue comes when you have a large number of representations in one city. In Beijing and Mumbai, for example, we have rather a lot of different organisations. Some are co-located, which can work very well. But there is rather a lot and there is the worry that they are not well co-ordinated. We have co-ordinating machinery. We have a committee on overseas promotion which is designed to co-ordinate all the efforts on inward investment.[488]

235. Mr Fletcher added:

    Through evidence that the committee on overseas promotion has put together, we have been able to demonstrate to RDAs the benefits of co-operation, and we have started to get voluntary agreement and practice. It is the beginning of joint branding, which will be helpful in ending the confusion with symbols that quite a few people have pointed out. We have started to put in place a mechanism whereby individual inward investment prospects are properly handed out to the English regions in a reasonably orderly way. That part of the mechanism is quite effective, and we have been able to link it to the funds that we provide to RDAs through the single-pot process—a unique funding mechanism—to provide some targets that have begun to discipline their behaviour.

    Those are step-by-step and incremental improvements. […] The trick is to use the review in the strategy as a process of joint learning with our RDA partners to ensure that we end up with something that meets their legitimate objectives but that does not lead to more confusion or duplication.[489]

236. We recommend that the Government encourage businesses to comment on the quality of advice and information they have received from UKTI. We also recommend that the Government set out in its response to this Report what progress is being made relating to the review of the representation of devolved bodies and Regional Development Agencies overseas, with reference to those in India.

BARRIERS TO INVESTMENT

237. India has reduced tariffs over the years. However, barriers to Foreign Direct Investment remain in sectors in which UK companies traditionally invest. The law firm Clifford Chance told us that "India's position on legal services lags behind that of other WTO members"[490] and pointed out that foreign law firms are not allowed to open offices or practice law in India.[491] Investment in financial services is also restricted. Foreign banks can take a 75% equity share in Indian banks, but only in those that are non-profitable.[492] The City of London told us that HSBC and Standard Chartered, already well-established in India, had faced difficulties when they tried to expand their own networks. Investment in Indian insurers is capped at 26%.[493] Retail is also closed to foreign companies selling branded products of other companies. [494]

238. Clifford Chance argued that liberalisation of the legal services market would benefit India's economy as "[g]lobal corporates and financiers would be more willing to invest in a market where they were able to rely on multi-jurisdictional and specialised legal expertise."[495] It also stated that international law firms would be unlikely to take business away from Indian law firms as "their role will not include advice on matrimonial, conveyancing, wills or criminal law. Most importantly, they will not be seeking advocacy rights—the core area of business of most Indian lawyers."[496] Clifford Chance also argued that pricing differentials would limit direct competition for years.[497]

239. The FCO stated that it was trying to overcome such market access issues with JETCO, in parallel with EU-India and WTO dialogues.[498] UKTI argued:

    The Committee should note that the Government is engaged in regular dialogue with the Government of India to recognise the benefits of removing barriers to foreign participation in important sectors. We continue to lobby the Government of India for increased liberalisation in those sectors where the UK leads the world, such as retail, financial, legal and business services, both bilaterally through the annual ministerial meeting under the Joint Economic Trade Committee process.[499]

240. However, Clifford Chance suggested that on legal services at least there had been little progress so far:

    So far there has been little agreement between the two sides; a report to UK Ministers proposed a staged programme of liberalisation, beginning with limited opening as a transition measure towards further liberalisation. The India team favours a form of highly regulated joint ventures with Indian firms, a proposal which is unlikely to be attractive to international law firms.[500]

241. We recommend that alongside WTO and EU-India negotiations, the UK Government should continue to call strongly in JETCO and in the Economic and Financial Dialogue for India to remove restrictions to Foreign Direct Investment and to emphasise to India that liberalisation of its markets should have benefits for its economy. The Government must also ensure that businesses are kept informed whenever restrictions on FDI are reduced.

Indian business in the UK

242. A new aspect of the UK-India trade and investment relationship is the growth of Indian investment in the UK.[501] The FCO wrote positively about levels of Indian investment in the UK:

    India is now the third largest investor in the UK. About 500 Indian firms have set up operations in the UK, the majority from the ICT sector. In 2005-2006 there were 76 new Indian investment projects into the UK, an increase of 110% from the previous year. The UK is the top European investment location for Indian companies targeting the European market and beyond.[502]

243. However, Mr Wolf suggested that the UK would have to work hard to continue to attract Indian investment:

    What do we offer India in terms of economic relations? Well, we offer a diaspora, which is very important, and we offer strength in financial services, which is pretty obvious. So there are areas where our companies can get in in a big way. But clearly, if you are talking about providing capital goods and modern manufacturing technology or modern IT technology, people will go to other countries; they will go to Germany and Japan for their motor vehicles and to the United States for the IT business. So we have to define our competitive advantage very carefully.[503]

244. In October 2006 Anglo-Dutch steel firm Corus accepted a takeover bid by Indian company Tata steel. As part of the deal, Tata has pledged to pay £126million into the Corus pension fund and to increase the annual contributions to the British Steel fund. However, while Tata has stated that it does not plan to relocate any Corus plants, it added that job cuts could not be ruled out in the long-term.[504]

245. UKTI detailed the work it was doing to encourage further Indian investment into the UK:

    A very significant level of new investments are UKTI assisted. UKTI's Inward Investment efforts in India aim to improve the competitiveness and economic prosperity of the UK by identifying, actively encouraging and facilitating high quality Indian inward investment into the UK, focusing particularly on 'knowledge driven' industry sectors including: ICT (Software services, IT enabled services, telecom software); Biotech, Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare; Automotive/Advanced Engineering; Creative Industries; Food & Drink Processing.[505]

It explained that UKTI had restructured:

    There is no longer a division between investment and trade. The new "Business Directorate" is adopting an approach that develops relationships with UK and foreign companies on a sectoral basis. This unified approach is also being reflected in our diplomatic posts in India where the trade and investment teams have merged. UKTI will continue to emphasise the proactive search for inward investment leads aimed at companies that have the potential to add the highest value to the UK economy. [506]

It added that UKTI was developing a £9 million programme of intensive support for innovative and research and development(R&D)-intensive companies, which would include encouraging companies from overseas, such as India, of the benefits of carrying out R&D work in the UK.[507]

246. Alpesh Patel, UKTI Dealmaker responsible for India, told us that there were some problems in attracting Indian business to the UK, including the costs of set-up, a lack of knowledge amongst start-ups in India of the services of UKTI and of the Foreign Office; the fact that India's top scientific institutions lacked commercial spin-out know-how; the fact that UK companies outside the FTSE 100 made relatively few connections with India; and poor media perception. He recommended that the UK should promote the UK's incubation centres which were "hot-houses for low-cost set-up for start-ups" through entrepreneurs who had successfully used them; that the business schools of universities should look for alliances with Indian institutions to access their technologies for spin-outs; that the CEOs of the FTSE Small Cap and FTSE Fledgling companies should be targeted on opportunities and counterparts and databases available; that Business Plan competitions should be held to build associations between business schools and that journalist fellowships should be funded to bring business journalists for a term to the UK.[508]

247. We welcome Indian investment into the UK and the work being done by UKTI to encourage further investment. However, we conclude that the Government needs to do more to continue to attract Indian business into the UK. In particular it should focus on promoting the opportunities for low-cost start-ups and on building links with Indian scientific institutions and journalists.

Limitations to growth

248. Many witnesses told us that India would have to address certain limitations to economic growth in the future.[509]

POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT

249. The FCO stated that the Millennium Development Goals would "be won or lost in India"[510] and DfID's largest single bilateral aid programme is to India. Despite a recent reduction in poverty levels, nearly 380 million Indians still live on less than a dollar a day.[511] India ranks at 127 on the report's Human Development index, far behind China which is at 85.[512] There are also large inequalities between Indian states[513] Mr Wolf told us:

    India[…] has an enormous regional problem. That is to say, those areas of the country, which probably contain close to half the population, where growth is slowest, the incubus of the caste system is most pernicious and illiteracy is highest are also the areas that have the highest birth rates. There is a real problem in absorbing the population which, as it were, is burgeoning where growth is not.[514]

250. There has been an eruption of Naxalite insurgencies in some of the most populous and poorest parts of north and central India. The FCO pointed out that more civilians are thought to have died in Naxalite violence this year than in violence in Indian-administered Kashmir.[515]

251. Mr Wolf and Lord Desai told us that employment generation was key to reducing poverty in India.[516] Mr Wolf explained:

    India's economic structure and development path is unique […] I think that it is the only significant economy ever in which services have grown faster than manufacturing.

    In addition, the service sector is much less labour-intensive that one would normally expect.[517]

Only 1.3 million out of a working population of 400 million are employed in the information technology and business processing industries that have driven growth.[518] Although manufacturing is up, this is driven by capital investment, rather than at the labour intensive low and medium technology end.[519] Organised manufacturing only employs about 6 million.[520] Lord Desai stressed to us how limited organised labour was:

    I draw an analogy between the Indian employment structure and the Indian caste system. The best jobs are reserved for the best people, and they are restricted in respect of organised sector employment and public sector employment. Such jobs are inflation-proof, tenure-proof and so on, but they are for very few people.[521]

He added:

    lower down, people are in the much worse and much less well-paid jobs, where health and safety requirements are not satisfied. There is a hierarchy of increasingly worse jobs for the poorer and poorer people.[522]

252. Mr Wolf and Lord Desai argued that liberalising labour laws would be necessary for labour-intensive manufacturing to grow.[523] India's employment laws currently prevent companies with more than 100 staff in certain sectors from laying off workers without going through elaborate legal hoops.[524] Mr Wolf told us, "bankruptcy in India takes 10 years if everything goes well. It is, I think, the slowest in the world."[525] He explained, "For that reason, starting a company in areas in which such flexibility might be necessary is very risky for an entrepreneur".[526] Mr Wolf also told us that manufacturing was limited by a reservation policy, which restricted many products to the small-scale sector.[527]

253. The governing Congress-led United Progressive Alliance has been described as being "in a state of policy paralysis", due to its reliance on support from left-wing parties, especially the Communist Party of India (Marxist).[528] Mr Wolf commented, "Even most supporters of the present Government would not argue that they have been a great reforming Government".[529] Lord Desai told us:

    The Government's left-wing partners are the biggest opponents of any relaxation in labour laws, because the people who are in the best jobs are the most trade-unionised people. They are a powerful political lobby.[530]

254. We asked the Foreign Secretary about the extent to which the UK had had exchanges with the Indian government about reforms to employment laws. She told us:

    We do talk to the Indians from time to time about such issues, just as we do about barriers to trade. We encourage them to consider whether they could justifiably make reforms that might be economically beneficial without damaging their social fabric. […] Obviously this is an area that we encourage them to look at, but it is very much an area of great sensitivity, where they have to be the people who make the choices.[531]

Antony Stokes told us:

    We have helped to fund visits by the TUC and the Department for Work and Pensions to share experience of overcoming barriers to economic growth.[532]

We conclude that restrictive labour laws are a key barrier to employment generation, and therefore poverty reduction, in India. We recommend that the Government continue dialogue with the Indian government on the benefits of liberalising labour laws.

AGRICULTURE

255. The agricultural sector, on which 60% of India's labour force depends, has been stagnant.[533] Between 2000 and 2004, it grew by just 2% in real terms.[534] In an article on India's economic growth, Gurcharan Das suggested that the best way forward might be a "green revolution". He argued that "[u]nlike in manufacturing, India has a competitive advantage in agriculture, plenty of arable land, sunshine and water" and that to increase agricultural growth it would need to encourage private capital to move from urban to rural areas, lift onerous distribution controls, allow large retailers to contract directly with farmers, invest in irrigation and permit the consolidation of fragmented holdings.[535]

256. However, Lord Desai told us:

    What is happening right now is that there is some diversification in terms of horticulture, market gardening and things like that. But […]that is not going to be a way out in terms of employment generation. […] There is no economy in the world that has 60% of its people on the land and earning wages comparable to urban wages.[536]

Mr Wolf was also sceptical. He argued:

    […]the demand for agricultural output will not grow anything like as fast as the economy, so if India manages to accelerate the growth rate of foodstuffs dramatically—it will be very difficult—it will have to think about a rapid increase in exports.

    The world market for agricultural products, particularly many of those produced in India, is not good, partly because of the sort of problems that smashed up the Doha round.

257. The Indian government has introduced a National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme in 200 districts which assures employment at the minimum wage for 100 days for one member of each rural household. Some have seen this as a visionary way to end poverty in rural areas but others consider it a road to fiscal bankruptcy and a tool of political patronage.[537]

258. Martin Wolf told us that the Indian government was "beginning to let the domestic modern sector into retailing, which is potentially quite significant in India."[538] However, restrictions remain on foreign investment in retail.[539]

259. We recommend that the Government point out to the Indian government that removing restrictions to Foreign Direct Investment in retail could provide opportunities for the agricultural sector to develop.

CASTE DISCRIMINATION

260. Christian Solidarity Worldwide told us that caste discrimination continued "to blight India's political scene and economic development".[540] It is strongest in the rural areas where the bulk of the population lives and where the higher castes often have disproportionate power. Barbara Harriss-White told us in that:

    25-30% of the population that is 'dalit' (oppressed, ex-untouchables) is, despite positive discrimination, extremely poorly educated, still fighting contemptuous treatment and generally confined to sanitary work, agricultural labour and construction sites.[541]

261. The government has introduced reservations for the "Untouchables" (Dalits) in jobs and education in the public sector. 22.5% of places are already reserved for "Untouchables" in state-financed college places. There are now also controversial plans to reserve 27% of state-financed college places for "Other Backward Classes" (OBCs), socio-economically deprived groups who are not "Untouchables". Protestors argue that places should be solely based on merit.[542]

262. Dr Gorringe wrote:

    Huge strides have been made since Independence, but much remains to be done. Political and legal structures remain meaningless until they are implemented and inform interactions at the ground level. Dalits continue to face repression and violence. This oppression is not the 'traditional' ostracism of a supposedly impure group. Caste violence now is bound up with political competition and struggles over resources.[543]

EDUCATION

263. Public education has been described as India's "most damaging failure". A recent study found that even in poor villages, 16% of children were now in private primary schools (which charge about $1 to $3 a month in fees).[544] The failure to educate a large proportion of India's rural adults to even a minimum standard has been described as one of the reasons why India "finds it so hard to develop a mass, labour-intensive manufacturing sector".[545] Mr Wolf told us:

    India still has, although it is improving, a very considerable illiteracy problem, much larger than China's. The standard statistics suggest that literacy is about 65% in the population as a whole and less than 50% in women. Obviously, in modern factory work, it is really quite important that people can read basic things.[546]

264. The Foreign Secretary commented:

    Quite small things can be done. We talked about the provision of PCs. Greater access to primary education, never mind secondary education, is one of the things that can help transform the position in India and across the world.[547]

DFID has a £210 million of multi-year support to a national programme of elementary education, which aims to bring ten million out-of-school children into education.[548]

265. We recommend that the Government should continue to support improvements to public education in India.

GOVERNANCE AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM

266. India has been described as rising "despite the state". Its large public sector is inefficient and bureaucratic and does not focus on outcomes enough nor delegate sufficiently to service providers.[549] Mr Wolf told us, "There is a famous joke in India about why the IT sector did so well, having come from nowhere. The joke is that it did so well because the Government had no ministry for it."[550]

267. The Indian Administration Service (IAS) and India's political classes also have high levels of corruption. In December 2005, Foreign Minister Natwar Singh was forced to resign for alleged kickbacks from Saddam Hussein's government.[551] India consistently ranks among the worst countries in the world in the annual "Transparency Index" of corruption conducted by a non-profit group in Germany.[552] Mr Wolf argued:

    [t]he public sector needs to be much smaller and its staff much better paid. Everybody knows that it has at least two or three times as many people as it needs, and that they are paid far too little. It is a pretty good recipe for corruption.[553]

268. Lord Desai gave us a very different view. He argued:

    I do not think that corruption is an obstacle to growth. China is fairly corrupt, and it is growing very fast. The whole Asian experience is to be corrupt and deliver. […] Some of the corruption is basically division of the spoils between the very rich, and who cares about that? The corruption that really matters is the petty corruption that prevents people from starting businesses such as shops and stalls. That is the big obstacle to people who want to get on. India is one of the most politicised societies there is. It is deeply democratic and everything is politicised, so every job—such as that of a policeman—is a political patronage job. It is very hard to sack anybody or to have them up for corruption, although everybody talks about that. There are some enormously efficient, young, innovative public servants, and there is a lot of visible corruption. The thing about India is that, given all that, somewhere along the line it has managed to double its growth rate.[554]

Mr Wolf commented:

    In China, as I understand it from discussions with people, a corrupt local party boss takes a share of the spoils. You buy him off and give him a share once you set up your company, but once you have done that, you get the service. It delivers; it works. It is an overhead, but not a giant overhead. Once he has agreed, his lower officials do not get in the way.

    India's is a much more competitive form of corruption. There is a complicated administrative structure. Getting things through the legal system is a famous story in India, and you may have to bribe everyone all the way down the chain. That may mean a lot of people.[555]

269. UKTI told us that "extensive bureaucracy and continuing problems with corruption make India a challenging market".[556] The Foreign Secretary said:

    Most of the business people who have talked to me about this would say that bureaucracy is part of the problem. In so far as politicians have not always managed to find a way to cut through some of the bureaucracy, they are certainly not part of the solution. My impression is that there are many influential players in the Indian political world, who recognise the difficulties and are striving to overcome them, but they are of a substantial order.[557]

270. Amnesty International described India's criminal justice system as "crippling", despite the Indian government's claim to have a strong judiciary.[558] During our visit to India, we were told the state-run police forces were in great need of reform. The Supreme Court had recently ordered state governments to implement reforms but many had not replied or had argued that this directive was not binding on them.

271. The Foreign Secretary told us:

    There are quite strong links in many ways, if I recall correctly, between the British police and the Indian police, and a reasonable degree of links between our justice systems as well. Certainly we continue to encourage, to offer training, to offer to share best practice and generally to encourage partnership working wherever we can, as a means of improving some of the issues to which you referred: corruption and so on.[559]

272. We recommend that the Government encourages the Indian government to take steps to tackle corruption and excessive bureaucracy and that it continues to offer assistance to improve police training.

INFRASTRUCTURE

273. Poor infrastructure is a major constraint in India and "risks putting India at a disadvantage against Asian competition".[560] Clifford Chance stated:

    The massive demands and stresses on India's poor power networks, urban infrastructure, transport and ports are the costs of the late economic boom, and could be the brakes on its overall growth.[561]

274. In 2003 India's spending on infrastructure was about 3.5% of GDP, compared to over 10% in China.[562] Power also needs more investment. More than half of India's villages and about 40% of those who live in cities do not have electricity. Mr Wolf, told us:

    There are chronic shortages; but, even worse, probably the biggest single source of capital inefficiency in the private sector is the need of virtually all companies of more than a tiny size to have their own generators. Basically, it is a self-generation system. That is a significant overhead cost and a huge waste of capital.[563]

Water management also needs improvement, with inter-state tensions over water-sharing high.[564]

275. Clifford Chance told us that the Indian government did have plans to increase spending on infrastructure by 67% over the next three years, but that some believed "even this is insufficient."[565] It will therefore be very important for the Indian government to bring the private sector into infrastructure projects. It has already begun to do with airports and ports. Public private partnerships in mobile phones have also been successful:

    India has the largest mobile phone market in the world, with sales growing by 2 million per month. It is estimated there will be 250 million users by 2007.[566]

In August 2006 the government announced new plans to reduce its 24% stake in key public sector power companies. In October the government proposed to sell 10% of its stake in four such companies. It later decided to dilute its stake by selling extra shares in the companies instead, beginning with the Power Finance Corporation.[567]

276. However, the failure of the Enron project in Maharashtra left some in India and some outside investors sceptical about investing in infrastructure.[568] Mr Wolf explained to us why it was it was so difficult to invest in the power sector:

    power is a state-level issue under the Indian constitutional arrangements as that is one of the reasons why central Government finds it difficult to fix.[…] The fundamental issue is pricing and in many states—I do not know the exact proportion—the pricing is set by the state through political and regulatory processes. Those prices would not allow a private producer to cover costs.

    In addition, […] there are staggering losses from theft and people must have the ability to prosecute thieves effectively through the courts or stop it happening in some other way. Again, you need the support of state machinery to do that, which people do not currently have.

    The issues cannot be dealt with without the willingness to confront the most powerful power pressure group in the country: farmers.[569]

277. We recommend that the Government promotes opportunities for investment in Indian infrastructure to UK businesses and that it raises with the Indian government, at national and state level, the need to reform the power sector.


460   Percentage GDP growth given by calendar year. Figures from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Database, September 2006. Back

461   Edward Luce, In Spite of the Gods; The Strange Rise of Modern India, (London, 2006), p 38 Back

462   Q 55 Back

463   Q 155 Back

464   Q 52 Back

465   Q 55 Back

466   Percentage GDP growth given by calendar year. Figures from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook Database, September 2006. Back

467   "India: Mumbai basks in relative luxury", Financial Times, 23 August 2006 Back

468   "Market meltdown exposes structural weaknesses", Financial Times, 27 June 2006 Back

469   Q 55 Back

470   Q 52 Back

471   Gurcharan Das, "The Indian Model", Foreign Affairs, vol 85, number 4 (July/August 2006) Back

472   "Market meltdown exposes structural weaknesses", Financial Times, 27 June 2006 Back

473   Ev 34, para 28 Back

474   Q 159 Back

475   Trade and Industry Committee, Third Report of Session 2005-06, Trade and Investment Opportunities with India,

HC 881-I, para 2 Back

476   Ev 46, paras 138 and 140 Back

477   Ev 164 Back

478   Trade and Industry Committee, Third Report of Session 2005-06, Trade and Investment Opportunities with India, HC 881-I, para 60 Back

479   Q 16 Back

480   Ev 129 Back

481   Ev 47, para 142 Back

482   Ev 129 Back

483   Q 21 Back

484   Trade and Industry Committee, Third Report of Session 2005-06, Trade and Investment Opportunities with India,

HC 881-I, para 11

 Back

485   Ev 131, pp 9-10 Back

486   Trade and Industry Committee, Third Report of Session 2005-06, Trade and Investment Opportunities with India,

HC 881-I, para 108

 Back

487   Trade and Industry Committee, Fifteenth Special Report of Session 2005-06, Trade and Investment Opportunities with India: Government Response to the Committee's Third Report of Session 2005-06, HC 1671, para 4 Back

488   Oral evidence taken before the Foreign Affairs Committee on 6 December 2006, HC (2006-07) 136-I, Q 18 Back

489   Ibid Back

490   Ev 166, para 21 Back

491   Ev 164, para 4 Back

492   Ev 46, para 141 Back

493   Ev 130 Back

494   Trade and Industry Committee, Third Report of Session 2005-06, Trade and Investment Opportunities with India,

HC 881-I, para 80 Back

495   Ev 166, para 5 Back

496   Ev 167, para 25 Back

497   Ev 167, para 26 Back

498   Ev 46 Back

499   Ev 130 Back

500   Ev 166, para 24 Back

501   Ev 130 Back

502   Ev 46, para 139 Back

503   Q 74 Back

504   "Corus accepts £4.3bn Tata offer", BBC News Online, 20 October 2006 www.bbc.co.uk/news Back

505   Ev 130 Back

506   Ev 130 Back

507   Ev 132 Back

508   Ev 188, paras 2-3 Back

509   Ev 34, para 30, Q 55 [Mr Wolf], Q 57 [Lord Desai] Back

510   Ev 31, para 5 Back

511   "The myth of the New India", New York Times, 6 July 2006 Back

512   Baldev Raj Nayar, "India in 2005: India Rising but Uphill Road Ahead", Asian Survey, vol XLVI, No. 1, January/February 2006, p 104 Back

513   IMF Working Paper WP/06/103, Mind the Gap - Is Economic Growth in India Leaving Some States Behind?, April 2006 and Ev 34, para 29 Back

514   Q 66 Back

515   Ev 38, para 59 Back

516   Q 66 Back

517   Q 60 Back

518   "The myth of the New India", New York Times, 6 July 2006 Back

519   Q 59 [Lord Desai] Back

520   Q 60 Back

521   Q 63 Back

522   Q 64 Back

523   Q 66 Back

524   Q 64 [Lord Desai] Back

525   Q 66 Back

526   Q 67 Back

527   Q 62 Back

528   Baldev Raj Nayar, "India in 2005: India Rising but Uphill Road Ahead", Asian Survey, vol XLVI, No. 1, January/February 2006, p 105 Back

529   Q 68 Back

530   Q 64 Back

531   Q 151 Back

532   Q158 Back

533   Baldev Raj Nayar, "India in 2005: India Rising but Uphill Road Ahead", Asian Survey, vol XLVI, No. 1, January/February 2006, p 104 Back

534   Q 68 Back

535   Gurcharan Das, "The Indian Model", Foreign Affairs, vol 85, number 4 (July/August 2006) Back

536   Q 68 Back

537   Baldev Raj Nayar, "India in 2005: India Rising but Uphill Road Ahead", Asian Survey, vol XLVI, No. 1, January/February 2006, p 105 Back

538   Q 68 Back

539   Ev 129 Back

540   Ev 126 Back

541   Ev 182 Back

542   "Furore reflects India's caste complexities", BBC News Online, 20 May 2006 Back

543   Ev 150 Back

544   Gurcharan Das, "The Indian Model", Foreign Affairs, vol 85, number 4 (July/August 2006) Back

545   Edward Luce, In Spite of the Gods; The Strange Rise of Modern India, (London, 2006), p 331 Back

546   Q 66 Back

547   Q155 Back

548   Ev 47, para 143 Back

549   Gurcharan Das, "The Indian Model", Foreign Affairs, vol 85, number 4 (July/August 2006) Back

550   Q 72 Back

551   Baldev Raj Nayar, "India in 2005: India Rising but Uphill Road Ahead", Asian Survey, vol XLVI, No. 1, January/February 2006, p 105 Back

552   Edward Luce, In Spite of the Gods; The Strange Rise of Modern India, (London, 2006), p 74 Back

553   Q72 Back

554   Q 71 Back

555   Q72 Back

556   Ev 130 Back

557   Q 154 Back

558   Ev 117 Back

559   Q 164 Back

560   Ev 74, para 31 Back

561   Ev 166, para 16 Back

562   Q 58 Back

563   Q 58 Back

564   Q 20 Back

565   Ev 166, para 16 Back

566   Ev 105, para 13 Back

567   "Centre all set to dilute its stake in power companies", Economic Times, 14 January 2007 Back

568   Edward Luce, In Spite of the Gods; The Strange Rise of Modern India, (London, 2006), p 293 Back

569   Q 73 Back


 
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