Examination of Witnesses (Questions 37-39)
MS MARIEKE
WIERDA, MR
NICK GRONO
AND MR
BARNEY AFAKO
4 JULY 2007
Q37 Chairman: Thank you very much for
coming. You have heard the evidence we have had from our own government
representatives and you will be aware of the Committee's interest
in this particular issue. We are grateful to you for sharing your
more up-to-date, first-hand, day-to-day knowledge with the Committee.
I would be grateful if you could perhaps give us an indication,
from your perspective, of how you perceive the talks are going—we
obviously know where they are at—but what you feel generally.
On a slightly delicate note, people are being funded to go to
Juba for the talks and people are looking for an outcome, so what
kind of pressures are there to deliver, not by a given date, but
within a reasonable timescale? We have had experience of talks
in the past that go on and on and on and the impression one gets
is that there is some degree of progress, but it would be helpful
if you could give us your own experience.
Mr Afako: On the specific issue
of the pressures to deliver an outcome, it has to be recalled
that a year ago when the Government of southern Sudan decided
to mediate between the LRA and the Government of Uganda, the LRA
did not have a functioning political wing to speak about, it did
not yet have for itself a roadmap for a negotiated political solution,
so a lot of the time has been spent by the LRA attempting to put
together a delegation that represented its interests. The LRA
felt that its key leaders, for the reasons that they were wanted
by the International Criminal Court, could not attend the negotiations
in Juba, so they had to find people who were willing and able
to represent their interests. That has taken time to build a functioning
negotiating team and I think they have a much better team today
than they did a year ago and part of that is being reflected in
the improvement and the pace at which we are seeing matters concluded
in Juba.
Q38 Chairman: And that team has the confidence
of the indicted leaders?
Mr Afako: Absolutely, it does
have the confidence of the leaders. They are certainly in daily
contact with the leaders and often during sessions they will break
to make contact via telephone, so they are following the talks
basically on a daily, and sometimes hourly, basis.
Ms Wierda: Just to add from our
observations, I think the role that internationals have come to
play in the process, particularly Special Envoy Chissano, but
also the other representatives from other African governments,
is very helpful. Our sense when we were at Juba four weeks ago
was that there is more of a sense, I think, that the eyes of the
world are upon them now, which I think will be helpful to keep
the discussions on track.
Mr Grono: On the point about the
timescale of these talks, these talks are taking a long time,
but I think we need to put them in the context of, one, it is
a conflict that has gone on for a long time and, two, there are
real benefits that we are seeing just by reason of the talks themselves
going on. You have heard evidence of the camps now, that some
800,000 people have left the IDP camps for transitional camps
or returned to their homes, down from 1.7 million. A couple of
years ago we had an excess mortality rate, I think, of about 1,000
per week, this was the UN study and you have heard evidence of
that, so these things take time. From the perspective of my organisation,
the International Crisis Group, we are watching this with very
close interest because there is perhaps not a rhythm but a process
that one sees where some issues look very intractable and by taking
the time and teasing away at them we see movement. We are seeing
the LRA give real attention to the issues of accountability that
we might not have expected a year ago and part of this, I think,
is the process of participating in these talks and being exposed
to different views and understanding that the situation is not
what they might have expected it to be when they first entered
the talks, and I think it is a very welcome process. We still
obviously have very difficult issues to resolve, but there has
been a significant advance on what we might have expected perhaps
a year ago.
Chairman: I would make it plain
that I do not question that. My only concern is that when you
actually talk to people in the camps and the communities, they
say that until they are absolutely sure they have peace, many
of them are not confident to be resettled or re-established, so
there has to be a point at which people are sure that things will
not flare up again, but I appreciate that in the present climate
there has been a huge improvement on the ground.
Q39 Mr Davies: This is a fairly basic
question, but I think it runs through all of this. What possible
motive do the indicted leaders have for accepting any kind of
settlement which will result in them spending the rest of their
lives in jail? Are there not really just three plausible scenarios:
one, that the LRA somehow manage to decouple themselves from these
indicted leaders and even connive their arrest and committal;
secondly, that some form of immunity is negotiated which of course
would be a terrible blow to the credibility of the International
Criminal Court; and, thirdly, we just carry on without any settlement
at all? Are those not three plausible and possible scenarios?
Mr Afako: I think what the parties
are trying to achieve in Juba, first of all with the agreement
last Friday and the second part to come on the mechanisms, is
to find a formula which delivers accountability and addresses
the justice question, but at the same time approaches the issue
of punishment in a way that reflects that the crimes are serious,
but also has a bash at achieving the aims of peace and conciliation
at the same time. The mechanism for that is far more difficult
and I think we will start to thrash that out in the second part
of the agreement and, beyond that, in legislation, so the choice
is not quite as stark as it has been pur and it is not a choice
between spending the rest of your life in prison and war. I think
we are trying to find if there is a middle position, so to speak.
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