5 Conclusion
105. The Trade Minister commented that:
if we keep Turkey out, our children and their children
will rue the day economically because their size will give us
clout, their getting wealthy will give us clout, they will be
a skilled workforce, but also from the point of view of security
[…] They also are a secular nation and in a century that
belongs to Asia and in a world that is embracing different religions
more than ever before, the way to kill prejudice…is to embrace
those who are moderate in the different religions of the world.[288]
He indicated that it would be "very worrying"
if Turkey chose alliances with other countries because promises
of full EU membership had not been fulfilled.[289]
In her book on Turkey, the former Swedish Ambassador to Turkey
said the EU was facing a "historic choice of how to deal
with Turkey—the most liberal and well-developed democracy
in the Muslim world of 1.2 billion people. The world is watching."[290]
The former Ambassador also issued a stark warning: "If Turkey
is lost, it would be a failure of vision, in which everyone stands
to lose."[291]
Potential alternatives outlined for Turkey include a "closer
alliance" with the US and Israel, closer relations with Middle
East countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, or "an alliance
with its former arch-enemy Russia and the Turkic republics",[292]
as well as fears of a "Turkish 'Plan B'"—a coalition
with Iran, Russia, India and China.[293]
The former President of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, has
recently advocated a "Eurasian union" as "a viable
alternative" to the EU.[294]
We agree
with the Trade Minister's view that if Turkey is ultimately not
allowed to joint the EU "we will be paying the price for
a long, long time."[295]
106. As we have noted, the economic impact of
accession—the central theme of this inquiry—depends
on many factors, including the relative economic progress of Turkey
visàvis the EU, and how freedom of labour movement
is dealt with in and after final agreement. The greater the prospects
of continued growth in Turkey, the greater—and more apparent—will
be the benefits of Turkish membership, and indeed, the lower the
likelihood of significant migration from Turkey. At this stage,
the economic
consequences of Turkey's accession cannot be forecast with any
precision. Turkey is a large country and—at present—relatively
underdeveloped compared with its EU counterparts. But it should
continue to grow rapidly. Any accession agreement is almost certain
to include appropriate transition periods and/or safeguards for
the implementation of free movement of labour.
107. As this Report makes clear,
we fully support Turkey's bid for full membership of the European
Union. We believe that the EU's door should remain wide open to
Turkey. The barriers are surmountable, and accession can and should
happen when the time is right. We recognise this cannot take place
before 2014, and that much reform is needed before accession can
take place, but we believe that Turkish accession is ultimately
politically and economically right for the UK, and for Europe.
108. The Trade Minister observed
that the UK alone has "from beginning to end never wavered"
in support for accession and now Turkish EU membership. We congratulate
the Government on its consistent support for Turkey's membership,
and hope that it will continue to make the case for Turkey as
a future EU member state—and that it will do so both within
the UK and throughout the EU. Our strong support for Turkey's
EU membership gives us a competitive advantage over some of our
European competitors, just as ties of history and culture gives
us an advantage in India. We believe it prudent to strive for
a greater UK market share in Turkey now, in advance of accession
and further economic reform, to avoid 'missing the boat' in Turkey
as we only narrowly avoided 'missing the last train' in India.
288 Q207 Back
289
Q218 Back
290
Ann Dismoor, Turkey decoded, 2008, p226 Back
291
Ann Dismoor, Turkey decoded, 2008, p213 Back
292
Ann Dismoor, Turkey decoded, 2008, p16 & p212 Back
293
Ibid., p168 Back
294
"Gorbachev suggests there might alternatives to EU",
Turkish Daily News, 20 May 2008;
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=104906
Back
295
Q207 Back
|
