Select Committee on Defence Fifteenth Report


2  The security situation in southern Iraq

The situation in 2007

4. When we last visited Basra in July 2007, it was clear that the security situation was extremely fragile. We were unable to leave the Contingency Operating Base (COB) at Basra Air Station (unlike the previous year, when we had been able to visit UK Forces stationed in Basra Palace), and there were several rocket attacks each day and night on the COB during our stay. In 2007, there was a pervasive sense of pessimism among those whom we met, from the General Officer Commanding Multi-National Division (South East) (MND(SE)) downwards, and a belief that the UK had perhaps outstayed its welcome. The additional factor of increasing Iranian influence in southern Iraq had contributed to a significant escalation in violence during 2006-07.

5. Shortly after our visit, in September 2007, UK Forces handed over their base at the Provincial Joint Co-ordination Centre (PJCC) in Basra Palace to the Iraqi Army, leaving the COB, outside the centre of the city, as the only Coalition base. Reflecting this, by the time our Report on Iraq was published in the autumn of 2007, there had been a reduction in the number of attacks on UK and Coalition Forces in Basra. Nevertheless, the way forward remained unclear. We concluded:

Meeting in Baghdad Ambassador Ryan Crocker and General David Petraeus, who briefed us on the first stages of the surge, we heard that positive results were beginning to appear, which threw the situation in Basra into sharp relief.

6. However, in 2007 we were told that the violence in southern Iraq was of a different nature from that in and around Baghdad. While the insurgency which Coalition Forces were facing in Baghdad was led by the nihilism of al-Qa'eda in Iraq (AQI)—a Sunni group—that in Basra was ultimately self-limiting, as it represented a competition for power and money between various Shi'a organisations (some of them Iranian-backed). Essentially, no party wanted to destroy that over which it sought to exert control.

Provincial Iraqi Control

7. On 16 December 2007, Basra became the last province in south-eastern Iraq to move to Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC), following Maysan, Dhi Qar and al-Muthanna.

8. We were told during our recent visit to Iraq that the situation immediately following Provincial Iraqi Control, while more stable than six months previously, had not shown significant improvement. With UK Forces moving to a supporting role, the burden had fallen on the Iraqi Security Forces. Militia strongholds in Basra had remained impregnable, with the ISF either unwilling or unable to enforce security in those areas of the city.

Operation Charge of the Knights

9. The turning point in the security situation in Basra seems to have come in March 2008. Lieutenant-General Mohan al-Furayji had been appointed head of the Basra Operational Command (BaOC) in 2007, thereby assuming control of all Iraqi Army forces in southern Iraq. One of his key decisions was the raising of the 14th Division of the Iraqi Army, based on 5 Brigade, 10th Division, as a unit specifically recruited from outside Basra (the soldiers of the locally-raised 10th Division had been subject to intimidation and infiltration by Basrawi militias). He also began preparations for a major offensive against the militias in Basra, telling one British journalist at the time of the transition to PIC that "The lawlessness in Basra is an insult to the Iraqi people and an insult to the Iraqi government. It simply cannot be tolerated".[3]

10. Moqtada al-Sadr and his followers in Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM) had renewed their ceasefire in February 2008, but the detention of so-called rogue members of JAM in the weeks following brought the stability of the ceasefire into question. In March, General Mohan warned his troops that decisive action against the militias would soon be necessary.[4] We were told during our visit that the operation, dubbed Saulat al-Fursan or "Charge of the Knights", had been planned for the summer months, in order to be concluded before the beginning of Ramadan in September and the provincial elections in Basra later in the autumn, but that the timeline was accelerated at the behest of the Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki.

11. On 25 March 2008, Prime Minister al-Maliki arrived in Basra to oversee Operation Charge of the Knights personally. Full details of the tactical operations over the following days are not publicly known, nor is this the place to rehearse or speculate on them. However, according to reports in the press, JAM called for a ceasefire on March 30, with discussions being held in Iran.[5] By the following day, JAM units had ceased to appear openly on the streets and a semblance of normality had begun to return to Basra.

12. We visited the Basra Operational Command at the Shatt-al-Arab hotel during our recent visit, and met both Major-General Mohammed Juwad Huwaidi, who succeeded General Mohan as commander of Iraqi forces in May 2008, and the UK BaOC mentor, Colonel Richard Iron. We were told that Operation Charge of the Knights had resulted in a seismic shift in the balance of power between the ISF and the militias, and that a large part of its importance, apart from straightforward military success, lay in the fact that it had been conducted with Iraqi soldiers in the lead. There is no doubt that Coalition Forces provided essential support, both in terms of training, and in terms of heavy weapons and air cover, but the fact remained that it was Iraqi Security Forces which restored stability and security to the streets of Basra.

13. It is true that US Marines were also on the streets of Basra during this offensive, but this was not as an independent force. Prime Minister al-Maliki ordered in the Iraqi 1st Division as reinforcement. The US Military Transition Teams were embedded with the 1st Division, and providing additional operational planning, artillery support and tactical air support, significantly enhancing Iraqi military capability. This victory achieved a step change in Iraqi military self-confidence and transformed Prime Minister al-Maliki's political prestige. Moreover, the embedded US Marines were greeted by Basrawis, not as part of an occupying force, but as supporters of an increasingly capalble Iraqi Army.

14. Operations under the umbrella of Charge of the Knights continue. Some parts of Basra are still outside the full control of the ISF. Moreover, a new insurgency is likely to develop as militia groups adjust to the changing security situation. However, the ISF are creating increasingly sophisticated counter-insurgency tactics and apparatus, and economic growth in Basra is also likely to erode the appeal of the militias. The influence of Iran, however, remains a key factor. It is likely that Iran's strategic objectives in southern Iraq include keeping Coalition forces preoccupied with Iraq rather than with broader regional issues. We were told that these objectives have not been altered by the success of Operation Charge of the Knights, and the fact that the border between southern Iraq and Iran remains porous allows militias and weaponry to flow easily from one country to another.

15. However, it will be increasingly difficult for JAM and the Sadrist movement to re-establish its former dominance. The provincial elections in southern Iraq, due late this year, offer Moqtada al-Sadr an opportunity to establish a political power base in and around Basra, but he and his movement cannot participate in the elections while JAM remains an avowed militia movement. Sadr therefore must find a way to distance himself from JAM or change the identity of JAM if he is to engage in the political process.

16. We are reassured that Operation Charge of the Knights has been broadly successful, and has substantially weakened the power of the militias in Basra. While some areas of the city are not yet fully under the control of the ISF, a high degree of security has been restored and the preconditions are in place for political progress and economic recovery. There is no doubt that more remains to be done. The UK Government must ensure that it continues to provide support to the ISF to ensure that the progress which has been made is not lost and that Basra does not slip back into instability.

Divisional Internment Facility

17. We visited the UK-run Divisional Internment Facility (DIF) in the COB. This has been a continuing matter of interest to us. We were told that the facility operates in accordance with international and domestic law. Those being held are a mixture of internees and detainees. The DIF is scrutinised by the International Committee of the Red Cross and by the Army's Provost Marshal, and complaints are dealt with by the Special Investigation Branch.

18. The power to intern derives from United Nations Security Council Resolution 1637. If there is no resolution after the current one expires in December 2008, the UK will stop the internment process. However, the improving security situation in Basra is likely to make the process much less necessary. The future of the DIF is uncertain, but it may be that an arrangement can be reached bilaterally with the Iraqi government or under the aegis of the Long-Term Security Arrangement being negotiated by the United States.


2   HC (2007-08) 110, para 41 Back

3   "New Iraq receiving baptism of fire in Basra", The Daily Telegraph, 30 March 2008, www.telegraph.co.uk Back

4   "The final battle for Basra is near, says Iraqi general", The Independent, 20 March 2008, www.independent.co.uk Back

5   "Iraqi political effort targets al-Sadr", USA Today, 6 April 2008, www.usatoday.com Back


 
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Prepared 22 July 2008