Examination of Witnesses (Questions 460
- 462)
WEDNESDAY 24 OCTOBER 2007
PROFESSOR JOHN
BOURNE CBE, PROFESSOR
PROFESSOR CHRISTL
DONNELLY AND
PROFESSOR ROSIE
WOODROFFE
Q460 Mr Cox: I accept for my own
part, representing an area which is a hotspot area, that culling
probably is not a solution to the national problem in the sense
that we have identified some problems with it, but as a potential
instrument, properly co-ordinated, Professor Bourne, which you
described, in areas where you can define not perfect but reasonably
hard boundaries, it makes no sense, Sir David King was saying,
to rule it out, does it? In a hotspot area where we have an intense
infective area, hard boundaries—
Professor Bourne: But if you pursue
that approach you have to recognise that there will be winners,
there will be losers and there will be disease spread. That is
inevitable, and that assumes that the culling is done effectively
and systematically.
Q461 Mr Cox: Quite, in the ways you
have described?
Professor Bourne: To expect farmers
to do that under licence we believe is not realistic.
Q462 Mr Cox: But there I think we
can agree. The truth is that I do not think anybody is suggesting
that farmers should be allowed to stumble around in the dark with
shotguns or any other means. This has got to be a concerted, orderly
cull.
Professor Bourne: But this is
precisely what the consultation document did suggest, which is
why we have caveated our recommendations on the basis that badger
removal has no part to play in control of cattle disease, short
of elimination or virtual elimination of the badger population
over large areas of the countryside. I think that is the nub of
the issue. I would have been far more impressed with Sir David's
paper had he recognised the non-reality of culling over small
areas to impact on the national trend, but if one is to grasp
the nettle one has to do this over very large areas to influence
national incidence. He has shown you a map of the incidence; I
did not see it but I am sure I know what it is, but one is talking
about 25,000 square kilometres. You seriously have to ask the
question, is culling, in the way that it can be done and in a
way that can be achieved, effective? If you believe it is, it
is important that you then start looking at the cost effectiveness
of that.
Chairman: I am going to draw the line
there because that is a good point at which to conclude these
discussions. Can I thank you again for coming back. You have been
kind enough to come and give us the benefit of your views. We
have done our best to understand. I do not think we necessarily
would be able to complete a paper that you might want to set about
our degree of understanding of all the statistical analysis, but
I think we have got a clear message about where you are coming
from. Can I also again reiterate my thanks to Professor Woolhouse
and Sir David King for coming so quickly to give us the benefit
of their views and may I send my early commiserations to Lord
Rooker who has to digest everything that has been said, and he
is the one who will have to make a decision, but we hope that
we will have our report out ahead of that moment when he makes
his mind up to give him the benefit of our views. Thank you all
very much indeed.
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