Letter to the Chairman of the Committee
from Dr Kim Howells MP, Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth
Office
Following my appearance before the Committee
last week I will be writing to you on a range of issues on which
you sought further details. We are aiming to provide that information
before the House rises for recess.
I wanted, though, to write to you now regarding
this week's publication of a new US National Intelligence Estimate
(NIE) on Iran's nuclear programme. One of the judgements it makes,
with "high confidence", is that Iran had a nuclear weapons
programme prior to 2003 but that it halted this programme at that
time. The NIE also assesses with "high confidence" that
the halt lasted several years, and with "moderate confidence"
(ie a lower degree of certainty), that it had not been restarted
as of mid- 2007. Two of the US agencies involved in the report—the
National Intelligence Council and the Department of Energy—have
less confidence that any halt covered Iran's entire nuclear weapons
programme.
This has led some to argue that the US is downgrading
its assessment of the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programme
and that we should do the same. Because we spent some time when
I gave evidence on the question of why we believed that Iran's
nuclear activities were a cause for serious concern, I thought
it would be helpful for the Committee to be very clear that our
policy on this matter has not changed.
I do not wish to comment on whether we agree
or disagree with the specific assessment made in the NIE, as we
do not comment on intelligence matters in this way. What I would
stress is that, as I made clear in my answers last week, the basis
of our concerns about Iran's behaviour stems from their pursuit
of a uranium enrichment programme that has, as far as we can see,
no civilian application, but which could produce fissile material
for a nuclear weapon, and from our lack of clarity about the strategic
intent that lies behind that programme. Those concerns would,
if anything, be heightened by confirmation that Iran did at some
point have a nuclear weapons programme.
It is the fundamental lack of trust in Iran's
intentions and activities that has led to the IAEA and the UN
Security Council demands that Iran suspends its enrichment programme,
and why, if Iran continues to defy the international community
by ignoring those demands, we shall press for further UN and EU
sanctions. In this respect, it is worth underlining the NIE's
statement that "We do not have sufficient intelligence to
judge confidently whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt
of its nuclear weapons programme indefinitely".
I hope this is helpful for the Committee in
your ongoing deliberations on this important issue.
7 December 2007
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